Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

The SOS count is using the final reports given by each county and not the discrepancies that were found yesterday. Only the counties in dark gold (results complete) on the map are where changes have been made. This means that Thomas' 100 vote difference isn't included in that total.

You're right that Brownback wasn't mentioned too much during these primaries so it became more about "conservative vs. moderate" instead of "Pro-Brownback vs. Anti-Brownback." Moderates may have been less likely to vote since they didn't have a viable choice in the Governor's race, I'm not sure.

[DINGO Joe]

Who's to blame for the Republican race fiasco?  It's those damn kids

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article216330705.html

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Damn vote stealing kids

[smoltchanov]

The SOS count is using the final reports given by each county and not the discrepancies that were found yesterday. Only the counties in dark gold (results complete) on the map are where changes have been made. This means that Thomas' 100 vote difference isn't included in that total.

You're right that Brownback wasn't mentioned too much during these primaries so it became more about "conservative vs. moderate" instead of "Pro-Brownback vs. Anti-Brownback." Moderates may have been less likely to vote since they didn't have a viable choice in the Governor's race, I'm not sure.

Thanks! It seems to me that Election Day voters were especially conservative, substantially more so, then Early voters....

[TheSaint250]

Who's to blame for the Republican race fiasco?  It's those damn kids

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article216330705.html

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Damn vote stealing kids

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/APjdhanna/status/1027988040097193986

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/APjdhanna/status/1027988040097193986

wow, Im actually on edge. This feels like some sort of drama.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/APjdhanna/status/1027988040097193986

wow, Im actually on edge. This feels like some sort of drama.

Yep, I feel like making popcorn.

[Xing]

If Colyer isn't right, though, it's looking like Kobach will narrowly win.

[DINGO Joe]

With the caveats that very few votes seem to be added today and that JoCo hasn't reported anything, Coyler seems to be treading water--still 150-200 behind

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, all of the big counties haven't reported yet, but Colyer isn't doing as well with these absentee votes as expected. This is only votes received yesterday or before, votes received today won't come in until Monday. I was hoping/expecting he would pull close to even today and then it would all come down to whoever wins the provisional votes.

[Suburbia]

Johnson County, Kansas is the Cobb County, GA of Kansas politics. Once a suburban Republican bastion, women are trending Democratic.

[wesmoorenerd]

This honestly feels like a perfect storm for Kelly. This is literally the best thing that could've happened for her (assuming Kobach pulls it out in the end).

[DINGO Joe]

Margin is down to 77 with the major counties in except Shawnee.  Must have been another error that bumped Coyler another 100 because none of the major counties had that kind of difference.  I think Reno pushes it back to 100 when they officially post.

[TheSaint250]

This honestly feels like a perfect storm for Kelly. This is literally the best thing that could've happened for her (assuming Kobach pulls it out in the end).

Even better for her would be Colyer winning just barely and an aggressive recount ensuing that Kobach ends up winning.

[tmthforu94]

Updated totals on OP.

Usually 60-70% of provisional ballots are counted, so on the low end we're looking at around 3,600 additional votes. Colyer will need to win provisional votes by a little over 3% to pull ahead.

[tmthforu94]

The count is Kobach +110, there will not be weekend updates.

Monday will be a big day, as a majority of counties, including Sedgwick and Johnson, will canvas their provisional ballots. Additionally we will get numbers on the remaining absentee ballots that were received today. Colyer will need to do extremely well on Monday, if the margin stays around what it is now he is probably done.

TECHNICALLY, Kobach probably barely won the absentee votes that came in Tuesday-Thursday, so will probably win the ones that came in today. However, the big takeway from today that we'll probably see on the news will be that the margin has shrank by 81 votes (because of the Thomas county error).

[Xing]

I suppose Colyer could win remaining ballots by 3% (though he doesn't seem to have gained much so far), and a recount could change a result this close, but I'd definitely rather be Kobach in this case (don't take this sentence out of context, lol)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is there an actual poll for this?

Yeah, it shows Colyer ahead by 10, but Kobach down by 1.

That's still too close for comfort.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/APjdhanna/status/1027988040097193986

Called it. F*** Kobach so hard. And before anyone says: "I would," he's a decent looking guy, but he is no Martin Heinrich.

[morgieb]

This is probably the best thing that could happen to the Democratic party. This can only do damage to both.

[ON Progressive]

What I really want to see is a tie where Kobach wins via coin flip or something. That would be entertaining.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

This is probably the best thing that could happen to the Democratic party. This can only do damage to both.

[smoltchanov]

I suppose Colyer could win remaining ballots by 3% (though he doesn't seem to have gained much so far), and a recount could change a result this close, but I'd definitely rather be Kobach in this case (don't take this sentence out of context, lol)

We shall see. I am somewhat surprised by how substantially more conservative this year Republican primary vote is compared with only 2 years ago... Brownback's "iron fist rule" seems almost forgotten...

[junior chįmp]

Looks like Colyer is busing in illegals to gin up the vote margin but in the end he is finished. My prayers have been answered....Kobach was be the nominee

[smoltchanov]

Looks like Colyer is busing in illegals to gin up the vote margin but in the end he is finished. My prayers have been answered....Kobach was be the nominee

I preserve your statemens. What will you say, when Kobach will become a Governor?)))). IIRC - almost every liberal thought in 2014, that Brownback will be finished, and he wasn't.