Polish Politics and Elections

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

And now all stations are reporting. Barring anything else, these should be the final results:


100.00% reporting (+/- compared to 99.97% in)

PiS: 35.38% (-0.01%)
KO: 30.70% (+0.01%)
TD: 14.40% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.61% (+/- 0.00%)
Kon: 7.16% (+/- 0.00%)
BS: 1.86% (+/- 0.00%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.12% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/Ilocore1/status/1713855665544790327?s=20

drinking the extremely salty tears of hard right crazies

[Logical]

Imagine watermarking a ****ing Bing AI creation.

[Logical]

Final 2 constituencies to finish reporting is Warsaw and the ring around it.

Consituency no. 19 (Warsaw)
KO - 43.23% (+1.18) 741,286
PiS - 20.14% (-7.35) 345,380
Left - 13.45% (-4.74) 230,648
Third Way - 13.25% (+8.50) 227,127
Konfederacja - 7.24% (-0.27) 124,220

Seats
KO - 9
PiS - 4 (-2)
Left - 3
Third Way - 3 (+2)
Konfederacja - 1


Consituency no. 20 (Warsaw surroundings)
KO - 35.23% (+6.62) 257,470
PiS - 31.74% (-9.15) 231,905
Third Way - 15.06% (+6.46) 110,086
Konfederacja - 7.06% (+0.43) 51,573
Left - 7.06% (-6.03) 51,556

Seats
KO - 4
PiS - 4 (-2)
Third Way - 3 (+1)
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
Left - 1

Turnout in Warsaw breaks all records at 84.92%

[adma]

Imagine watermarking a ****ing Bing AI creation.

Well, that's the thing; these "hard right crazies" so ensconced within and conditioned by whatever universe of gaming and social media they've chosen, their perspective on "art" is entirely that of fan art.  They're terminally kitsch; terminally tasteless--because they're LARPing on some imagined "timeless, eternal values"...

[Logical]

Party strength maps
PiS

KO

Third Way

Left

Konfederacja


PiS and KO maps are mirrors of each other as usual.
The addition of PL2050 in the PSL coalition allowed them to break into urban areas they are usually weak in. It was the perfect match for both parties.
The Left is back to being irrelevant outside cities and their traditional strongholds.
Unlike 2019, Kon is now stronger in rurals than cities. They also gained strength in Southwest Poland. Protest votes from disillusioned PiS voters?

[Mike88]

Didn't post here yesterday, had a minor health issue, but very good result for the Opposition.

Another positive note is that KO+TD has more seats than ZP+Confederation, 222 vs 212, and is just 9 seats away from a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The full size of the diaspora vote in the UK is quite a thing: 144,000 valid votes cast (even more than 101,000 in Germany). Same patterns as seen earlier, though PiS have slipped to third looool.

[icc]

What is the breakdown in seats between Polska 2050 and PSL?

[M0096]

What is the breakdown in seats between Polska 2050 and PSL?

All elected to Sejm members of Third Way:

Polska 2050 - 33 seats:
2 - Aleksandra Leo
3 - Tomasz Zimoch, Izabela Bodnar
4 - Norbert Pietrykowski
5 - Marcin Skonieczka
6 - Joanna Mucha
7 - Sławomir Ćwik
8 - Maja Nowak
9 - Ewa Szymanowska
12 - Paweł Śliz
13 - Rafał Komarewicz
15 - Piotr Górnikiewicz
18 - Żaneta Cwalina-Śliwowska
19 - Michał Kobosko, Ryszard Petru
20 - Paweł Zalewski
21 - Adam Gomoła
22 - Bartosz Romowicz
23 - Elżbieta Burkiewicz
24 - Szymon Hołownia, Barbara Okuła
25 - Agnieszka Buczyńska
26 - Wioleta Tomczak
27 - Mirosław Suchoń
29 - Piotr Strach
30 - Łukasz Osmolak
31 - Michał Gramatyka
32 - Kamil Wnuk
33 - Rafał Kasprzyk
36 - Barbara Oliwiecka
37 - Paulina Hennig-Kloska
38 - Adam Luboński
39 - Ewa Schadler

PSL - 32 seats:
1 - Tadeusz Samborski
4 - Aleksandra Kłopotek
5 - Zbigniew Sosnowski
6 - Krzysztof Hetman
7 - Wiesław Różyński
8 - Stanisław Tomczyszyn
10 - Dariusz Klimczak
11 - Paweł Bejda, Jolanta Zięba-Gzik
13 - Ireneusz Raś (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
14 - Urszula Nowogórska
15 - Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
16 - Piotr Zgorzelski, Mirosław Orliński
17 - Mirosław Maliszewski
18 - Marek Sawicki
19 - Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski
20 - Bożena Żelazowska
23 - Adam Dziedzic
24 - Stefan Krajewski
25 - Magdalena Sroka
26 - Marek Biernacki
28 - Henryk Kiepura
33 - Czesław Siekierski
34 - Zbigniew Ziejewski
35 - Urszula Pasławska
36 - Andrzej Grzyb
37 - Michał Pyrzyk
38 - Krzysztof Paszyk
39 - Jacek Tomczak (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
40 - Radosław Lubczyk (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
41 - Jarosław Rzepa

[Germany1994]

PiS doing bad in big cities isn´t anything new but once again they´re performing especially terrible in Poznań (18,63 %).

What´s the reason for the even bigger weakness there?? A high education level??

[Germany1994]

What is the breakdown in seats between Polska 2050 and PSL?

All elected to Sejm members of Third Way:

Polska 2050 - 33 seats:
2 - Aleksandra Leo
3 - Tomasz Zimoch, Izabela Bodnar
4 - Norbert Pietrykowski
5 - Marcin Skonieczka
6 - Joanna Mucha
7 - Sławomir Ćwik
8 - Maja Nowak
9 - Ewa Szymanowska
12 - Paweł Śliz
13 - Rafał Komarewicz
15 - Piotr Górnikiewicz
18 - Żaneta Cwalina-Śliwowska
19 - Michał Kobosko, Ryszard Petru
20 - Paweł Zalewski
21 - Adam Gomoła
22 - Bartosz Romowicz
23 - Elżbieta Burkiewicz
24 - Szymon Hołownia, Barbara Okuła
25 - Agnieszka Buczyńska
26 - Wioleta Tomczak
27 - Mirosław Suchoń
29 - Piotr Strach
30 - Łukasz Osmolak
31 - Michał Gramatyka
32 - Kamil Wnuk
33 - Rafał Kasprzyk
36 - Barbara Oliwiecka
37 - Paulina Hennig-Kloska
38 - Adam Luboński
39 - Ewa Schadler

PSL - 32 seats:
1 - Tadeusz Samborski
4 - Aleksandra Kłopotek
5 - Zbigniew Sosnowski
6 - Krzysztof Hetman
7 - Wiesław Różyński
8 - Stanisław Tomczyszyn
10 - Dariusz Klimczak
11 - Paweł Bejda, Jolanta Zięba-Gzik
13 - Ireneusz Raś (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
14 - Urszula Nowogórska
15 - Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
16 - Piotr Zgorzelski, Mirosław Orliński
17 - Mirosław Maliszewski
18 - Marek Sawicki
19 - Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski
20 - Bożena Żelazowska
23 - Adam Dziedzic
24 - Stefan Krajewski
25 - Magdalena Sroka
26 - Marek Biernacki
28 - Henryk Kiepura
33 - Czesław Siekierski
34 - Zbigniew Ziejewski
35 - Urszula Pasławska
36 - Andrzej Grzyb
37 - Michał Pyrzyk
38 - Krzysztof Paszyk
39 - Jacek Tomczak (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
40 - Radosław Lubczyk (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
41 - Jarosław Rzepa

Where did you find this??

[M0096]

Where did you find this??

I prepared that manually. I searched people with the best results from Third Way list in every constituency.

[Sir Mohamed]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obtain 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

[Oryxslayer]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

Israel shows that doing this doesn't change opinions,  it just hardens the previous loyalties and makes everyone angrier.  You need to give people time, which Bibi sadly benefited from, after letting the shaky opposition into power for a brief window.

[Mike88]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

Can the President do that? I'm not fully aware of the Presidential powers in Poland, but isn't there somekind of waiting period until the President is allowed to use his power of dissolving Parliament?

[MaxQue]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

Can the President do that? I'm not fully aware of the Presidential powers in Poland, but isn't there somekind of waiting period until the President is allowed to use his power of dissolving Parliament?

From Google translate on Polish Wikipedia, it seems the President only have have that power if there is a 2/3 majority in the Sejm in favour,  a failure by the Sejm to elect a Prime Minister (but it seems they have the power to elect their own if they reject the President choice before he has the power to "shorten the term") or failure to submit a budget.

[MRCVzla]

Internal composition of the parties within lists with representation in the Sejm (according to the official Electoral Commission site labels):
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość/Law and Justice 194: PiS 157, Suwerenna Polska (Ziobro' party rename) 18, Republicans (Agreement pro-PiS splinter) 4, Kukiz'15 2*, "non-partisan" independents 13* (*including Paweł Kukiz himself or members of OdNowa RP -other Agreement splinter- or Polish Affairs)
Koalicja Obywatelska/Civic Coalition 157: PO 122, Nowoczesna 6, Inicjatywa Polska 3, Zieloni 3, RS Agrounia TAK 1, "non-partisan" independents 22
Trzecia Droga/Third Way 65: PL2050 33, PSL 28, Centre for Poland (PO splinter affiliated with PSL/KP) 3, "non-partisan" independent (affiliated with PSL/KP) 1
Nowa Lewica/New Left 26: NL (SLD and Wiosna merger) 19, Razem 7
Konfederacja/Confederation 18: KWiN (mostly Ruch Narodowy/National Movement members) 7, Nowa Nadzieja/New Hope (former Korwin party) 6, KKP (Braun' monarchist party) 2, "non-partisan" independents 3 (including Karina Bosak, Krzysztof' wife who defeated Janusz Korwin-Mikke in preference votes)

Top 30 elected candidates by preference votes:
1. Donald Tusk (KO, PO leader, former PM and EU Council president) - 538,634 votes in Warszawa I (#19)
2. Jarosław Kaczyński (PiS leader, former PM) - 177,228 votes in Kielce (#33)
3. Adam Szłapka (KO, Nowoczesna leader) - 149,064 votes in Poznań (#39)
4. Barbara Nowacka (KO, Inicjatywa Polska leader, former leader of the United Left in 2015) - 139,524 votes in Słupsk (#26)
5. Piotr Gliński (PiS, Culture and National Heritage Minister) - 135,339 votes in Warszawa I (#19)
6. Mariusz Błaszczak (PiS, National Defense Minister) - 127,578 votes in Warszawa II (#20)
7. Małgorzata Wassermann (PiS, 2-term Member of the Sejm) - 125,786 votes in Kraków (#13)
8. Przemysław Czarnek (PiS, Education and Science Minister) - 121,686 votes in Lublin (#6)
9. Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS, Prime Minister of Poland) - 117,064 votes in Katowice (#31)
10. Marlena Maląg (PiS, Family and Social Policy Minister) - 109,870 votes in Kalisz (#36)
11. Sławomir Mentzen (Konfederacja, Nowa Nadzieja leader) - 101,269 votes in Warszawa I (#19)
12. Borys Budka (KO, parliamentary caucus leader, briefly PO leader before Tusk' return) - 101,258 votes in Katowice (#31)
13. Kacper Płażyński (PiS, Member of the Sejm, former Gdańsk city councilor) - 100,445 votes in Gdańsk (#25)
14. Mirosława Stachowiak-Różecka (PiS, 2-term Member of Sejm, former Wrocław city councilor) - 97,193 votes in Wrocław (#3)
15. Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz (KO, Member of the Sejm, former Minister) - 95,873 votes in Kraków (#13)
16. Sławomir Nitras (KO, 4-term Member of the Sejm, former MEP) - 90,720 votes in Szczecin (#41)
17. Krzysztof Brejza (KO, Senator for the 10th district, former Member of the Sejm) - 89,840 votes in Bydgoszcz (#4)
18. Elżbieta Witek (PiS, Marshal/Speaker of the Sejm) - 89,172 votes in Legnica (#1)
19. Dariusz Joński (KO, co-founder of Inicjatywa Polska) - 87,470 votes in Łódź (#9)
20. Kinga Gajewska (KO, 2-term Member of the Sejm) - 85,283 votes in Warszawa II (#20)
21. Bogdan Zdrojewski (KO, Senator for the 6th district, former Minister, MEP and mayor of Wrocław) - 85,099 votes in Wrocław (#3)
22. Agnieszka Pomaska (KO, 5-term Member of the Sejm) - 83,590 votes in Gdańsk (#25)
23. Szymon Hołownia (TD, Polska 2050 leader and former Presidential candidate) - 79,951 votes in Białystok (#24)
24. Alicja Chybicka (KO, Senator for the 7th district) - 78,816 votes in Wrocław (#3)
25. Elżbieta Polak (KO, Marshal of the Lubusz Voivodeship -until two days before the election when she resigned-) - 78,475 votes in Zielona Góra (#8)
26. Zbigniew Ziobro (PiS, Suwerenna Polska leader, Justice Minister and ex officio Prosecutor General) - 74,592 votes in Rzeszów (#23)
27. Piotr Müller (PiS, Government spokesman and Secretary of State at the Chancellery of the Prime Minister) - 72,813 votes in Słupsk (#26)
28. Jan Grabiec (KO, 2-term Member of the Sejm) - 71,534 votes in Warszawa II (#20)
29. Anna Pieczarka (PiS, Member of the Sejm) - 71,199 votes in Tarnów (#15)
30. Maria Koc (PiS, Senator for the 47th District) - 70,732 votes in Siedlce (#18)

[Germany1994]

If I counted correctly there will be 132 women in the new parliament, a quota of 28,7 %.

PiS - 40/194 (20,6%)
KO - 60/157 (38,2%)
TD - 19/65   (29,2%)
Lewica -12/26 (46,2%)
Kon - 1/18 (5,6%)

[Epaminondas]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

Israel shows that doing this doesn't change opinions,  it just hardens the previous loyalties and makes everyone angrier.  You need to give people time, which Bibi sadly benefited from, after letting the shaky opposition into power for a brief window.

Fear runs deep in Israeli psyche though, in a way it doesn't in established Western democracies, so entrenchment may be context-specific.

We also have the example of the 2019 Istanbul mayoralty, where the dominant party re-ran elections for no good reason and got clobbered. (Not that it did much good in the long run, since the winner Imamoglu has been sentenced to gaol time...)
Then there's Sánchez gambit 4 months after the last GE, in which his coalition took serious losses too.

[Vosem]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

Israel shows that doing this doesn't change opinions,  it just hardens the previous loyalties and makes everyone angrier.  You need to give people time, which Bibi sadly benefited from, after letting the shaky opposition into power for a brief window.

Fear runs deep in Israeli psyche though, in a way it doesn't in established Western democracies, so entrenchment may be context-specific.

We also have the example of the 2019 Istanbul mayoralty, where the dominant party re-ran elections for no good reason and got clobbered. (Not that it did much good in the long run, since the winner Imamoglu has been sentenced to gaol time...)
Then there's Sánchez gambit 4 months after the last GE, in which his coalition took serious losses too.

The thing about the Israeli elections is that the outcomes really were unworkable (except the very first one, April 2019, after which Likud really should under normal rules have been able to put together a coalition -- and it was punished in September 2019 for not doing so); unworkable elections indeed tend to have people dig in their heels, as also happened in Bulgaria. There's a difference between "electorate, please try again" and the governing party not liking the result and calling for a revote on a technicality, like in Turkey. That never goes well.

Going for an early election if your polls look good is variable -- it sometimes works and it sometimes doesn't -- but hardly ever does it work before around half the term is up, and it's more likely to work if the governing party has a new leader or a coherent reason to seek a new mandate rather than just "polls look good right now", which backfires pretty often. (The latter still sometimes works -- Canada 2000 is a blatant example -- but it's fundamentally risky.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

Can the President do that? I'm not fully aware of the Presidential powers in Poland, but isn't there somekind of waiting period until the President is allowed to use his power of dissolving Parliament?

From Google translate on Polish Wikipedia, it seems the President only have have that power if there is a 2/3 majority in the Sejm in favour,  a failure by the Sejm to elect a Prime Minister (but it seems they have the power to elect their own if they reject the President choice before he has the power to "shorten the term") or failure to submit a budget.

There are also PiS figures coming out and saying they lost fair and square, so there might not be any appetite for skulduggery even among people much more unhinged than Duda (who, though I'm not at all a fan, does at least seem to take seriously the idea that he's a head of state and not a party hatchet man).

[Storr]

I believe that this will be the final seat distribution, give or take a seat.

PiS - 194 (-41)
KO - 157 (+23)
Third Way - 65 (+35)
Left - 26 (-23)
Konfederacja - 18 (+7)
German Minority 0 (-1)

KO + TD + Left = 248

Compared to the initial exit poll
PiS -6
KO -6
TD +10
Left -4
KWN +6
The errors balance out so the number of seats the opposition coalition wins remains spot on.

You were spot on with your seat distribution calculations.

Since no one has posted it yet, percentage of votes vs. percentages of seats:

PiS -              35.38% of votes - 42.17% of seats
KO -              30.70% of votes - 34.14% of seats
Third Way -    14.40% of votes - 14.13% of seats
Left -              8.61% of votes - 5.65% of seats
Konfederacja - 7.16% of votes - 3.91% of seats

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Why and when Joanna Mucha left PO?