Polish Politics and Elections

[Хahar 🤔]

The Chicago Metro Area is the main reason PiS was the winner here in the United States. In 14 polling states, the only lost 2 and they only failed to get a majority in a total of 4. In some polling places they got over 70% of the vote!

So the same constituency that votes 70% Democratic in US election votes 70% for the Polish GOP. Ideological splits.

It makes no sense at all to map American politics onto the politics of a country where both major parties are right-wing.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 21 (Opole) fully reported
KO - 33.59% (+6.68) 161,241
PiS - 31.26% (-6.38) 150,022
Third Way - 12.74% (+2.43) 61,155
Left - 7.24% (-4.50) 34,763
Konfederacja - 6.49% (+0.79) 31,150
German Minority - 5.37% (-2.53) 25,778

Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
German Minority - 0 (-1)

German Minority has lost their seat!

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

[President Johnson]

The PiS being ousted would be a massive upgrade, though I still find that they have got way too many votes all things considered. However, the campaign wasn't 100% fair with their control over parts of the media. I hope a new Tusk government can undo the damage, especially rolling back the assault on the judicial branch. That would also give Poland access to currently frozen EU funds.

[It’s so Joever]

The Chicago Metro Area is the main reason PiS was the winner here in the United States. In 14 polling states, the only lost 2 and they only failed to get a majority in a total of 4. In some polling places they got over 70% of the vote!

So the same constituency that votes 70% Democratic in US election votes 70% for the Polish GOP. Ideological splits.

Lots of Biden-Bolsonaro and Biden-Fujimori voters in parts of this great land.

I wonder if there are any Trump-Lula/Trump-Castillo voters as well…

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Consituency no. 21 (Opole) fully reported
KO - 33.59% (+6.68) 161,241
PiS - 31.26% (-6.38) 150,022
Third Way - 12.74% (+2.43) 61,155
Left - 7.24% (-4.50) 34,763
Konfederacja - 6.49% (+0.79) 31,150
German Minority - 5.37% (-2.53) 25,778

Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
German Minority - 0 (-1)

German Minority has lost their seat!

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

To Konf, which is a very very bad thing, although my understanding is it shouldn't affect the center-to-left coalition math because German Minority wasn't picking sides. Right?

[Epaminondas]

German Minority has lost their seat!

Could Riszard Galla even speak German? I'd been hunting some video interviews of him in German, but failed to find anything beyond members of his cabinet speaking German. But his Polish is a bit wonky (I'm told) so perhaps he speaks a Silesian dialect?

It makes no sense at all to map American politics onto the politics of a country where both major parties are right-wing.

From Europe, it's pretty open-and-shut that this is the case in the US as well.
One right-wing reasonable party, and one far-right wing bonkers party.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 21 (Opole) fully reported
KO - 33.59% (+6.68) 161,241
PiS - 31.26% (-6.38) 150,022
Third Way - 12.74% (+2.43) 61,155
Left - 7.24% (-4.50) 34,763
Konfederacja - 6.49% (+0.79) 31,150
German Minority - 5.37% (-2.53) 25,778

Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
German Minority - 0 (-1)

German Minority has lost their seat!

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

To Konf, which is a very very bad thing, although my understanding is it shouldn't affect the center-to-left coalition math because German Minority wasn't picking sides. Right?

They basically a localist party for Opole region. The opposition coalition currently has 243 seats total so it wouldn't matter anyway.

[M0096]

To Konf, which is a very very bad thing, although my understanding is it shouldn't affect the center-to-left coalition math because German Minority wasn't picking sides. Right?

Galla has usually voted with opposition, but is not their official partner.
I think next time German Minority will run on PSL (or Third Way if they still exist) list like their Silesian friends.

[Storr]

Consituency no. 21 (Opole) fully reported
KO - 33.59% (+6.68) 161,241
PiS - 31.26% (-6.38) 150,022
Third Way - 12.74% (+2.43) 61,155
Left - 7.24% (-4.50) 34,763
Konfederacja - 6.49% (+0.79) 31,150
German Minority - 5.37% (-2.53) 25,778

Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
German Minority - 0 (-1)

German Minority has lost their seat!

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

According to PiS, the German Minority doesn't have to worry because Pole-in-name-only Tusk will represent them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We have the first city to finish counting and it's Częstochowa.

KO 35.8% (+7.4)
PIS 30.9% (-6.4)
Lewica 12.3% (-8.7)
TD/PSL 11.6% (+7.2)
KWN 5.9% (-0.1)

Changes from 2019

These changes certainly would be change of government territory assuming they get replicated nationally.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Consituency no. 21 (Opole) fully reported
KO - 33.59% (+6.68) 161,241
PiS - 31.26% (-6.38) 150,022
Third Way - 12.74% (+2.43) 61,155
Left - 7.24% (-4.50) 34,763
Konfederacja - 6.49% (+0.79) 31,150
German Minority - 5.37% (-2.53) 25,778

Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
German Minority - 0 (-1)

German Minority has lost their seat!

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

According to PiS, the German Minority doesn't have to worry because Pole-in-name-only Tusk will represent them.

I hadn't known until quite recently that Tusk was from an ethnic minority, although "Donald Tusk" did always strike me as a pretty non-Polish-sounding name.

[DL]

Consituency no. 21 (Opole) fully reported
KO - 33.59% (+6.68) 161,241
PiS - 31.26% (-6.38) 150,022
Third Way - 12.74% (+2.43) 61,155
Left - 7.24% (-4.50) 34,763
Konfederacja - 6.49% (+0.79) 31,150
German Minority - 5.37% (-2.53) 25,778

Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
German Minority - 0 (-1)

German Minority has lost their seat!

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

According to PiS, the German Minority doesn't have to worry because Pole-in-name-only Tusk will represent them.

I hadn't known until quite recently that Tusk was from an ethnic minority, although "Donald Tusk" did always strike me as a pretty non-Polish-sounding name.

Poland also had a PM with the name "Miller" a few years ago - sounds very English to me

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Consituency no. 21 (Opole) fully reported
KO - 33.59% (+6.68) 161,241
PiS - 31.26% (-6.38) 150,022
Third Way - 12.74% (+2.43) 61,155
Left - 7.24% (-4.50) 34,763
Konfederacja - 6.49% (+0.79) 31,150
German Minority - 5.37% (-2.53) 25,778

Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
German Minority - 0 (-1)

German Minority has lost their seat!

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

According to PiS, the German Minority doesn't have to worry because Pole-in-name-only Tusk will represent them.

I hadn't known until quite recently that Tusk was from an ethnic minority, although "Donald Tusk" did always strike me as a pretty non-Polish-sounding name.

Poland also had a PM with the name "Miller" a few years ago - sounds very English to me

Jewish (and thus presumably of German or Yiddish etymology), according to a quick Wikipedia search.

[Epaminondas]

Assuming the opposition alliance wins the Sejm and the Senate comfortably, what sort of shenanigans could Duda pull to hinder them over the next 2 years?

[Logical]

Consituency no. 37 (Konin) fully reported
PiS - 38.69% (-8.60) 162, 192
KO - 23.99% (+3.53) 100,588
Third Way - 16.63% (+6.82) 69,740
Left - 9.48% (-5.52) 39,761
Konfederacja - 6.97% (+0.23) 29,208

Seats
PiS - 4 (-1)
KO - 2
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/37

[M0096]

Poland also had a PM with the name "Miller" a few years ago - sounds very English to me

Rajmund Miller (KO) was reelected in Opole constituency. Mamy polish people have German surnames.

Also former prime minister, now MEP has surname "Miller".

[President Johnson]

If Tusk indeed becomes prime minister again, kind of reminds me of Biden and Lula. A somewhat still popular retired politician jumps back into the arena to oust a far-right government with strong authoritarian tendencies and wins, pomising to roll back the damage of the last few years.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

As I expected the Germans lost their seat

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Poland also had a PM with the name "Miller" a few years ago - sounds very English to me

Rajmund Miller (KO) was reelected in Opole constituency. Mamy polish people have German surnames.

Conversely, Friedrich Nietzsche was of the belief that he had szlachta ancestry and his forebears had been named Nicki, although most biographers think he was mistaken about this.

If Tusk indeed becomes prime minister again, kind of reminds me of Biden and Lula. A somewhat still popular retired politician jumps back into the arena to oust a far-right government with strong authoritarian tendencies and wins, pomising to roll back the damage of the last few years.

Tired: Eternal 2016 primaries
Wired: Eternal 2020 general

[Logical]

Consituency no. 15 (Tarnów) fully reported
PiS - 48.67% (-10.92) 196,433
Third Way - 18.64% (+5.29) 75,229
KO - 17.02% (+3.02) 68,690
Konfederacja - 7.99% (+0.88) 32,241
Left 4.00% (-1.94) 16,152


Seats
PiS - 5 (-2)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
KO - 2 (+1)
Konfederacja - 0
Left - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/15

[Logical]

Consituency no. 24 (Białystok) fully reported
PiS - 42.39% (-9.65) 258,227
KO - 20.84% (-0.2) 126,971
Third Way - 18.86% (+9.53) 114,898
Konfederacja - 9.79% (+2.83) 59,648
Left 4.84% (-4.25) 29,478


Seats
PiS - 7 (-1)
KO - 3
Third Way - 3 (+2)
Konfederacja - 1
Left - 0 (-1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/24

[Germany1994]

In the end KO will end up above 30%, they´re at 29,89 % at the moment.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Consituency no. 24 (Białystok) fully reported
PiS - 42.39% (-9.65) 258,227
KO - 20.84% (-0.2) 126,971
Third Way - 18.86% (+9.53) 114,898
Konfederacja - 9.79% (+2.83) 59,648
Left 4.84% (-4.25) 29,478


Seats
PiS - 7 (-1)
KO - 3
Third Way - 3 (+2)
Konfederacja - 1
Left - 0 (-1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/24

Some of my great-grandparents came to the United States from Bialystok, back when it was a heavily Jewish city at the western fringe of the Russian Empire. Nice to see a net opposition gain here.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 23 (Rzeszów) fully reported
PiS - 51.60% (-11.08) 347,688
KO - 17.70% (+3.31) 119,259
Third Way - 12.42% (+4.63) 83,676
Konfederacja - 9.48% (+1.23) 63,854
Left 4.87% (-1.72) 32,828


Seats
PiS - 9 (-1)
KO - 3 (+1)
Third Way - 3 (+1)
Konfederacja - 1
Left - 0 (-1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/23

[M0096]

Opposition candidate Maciej Żywno also flipped Senate constituency 60 including Białystok.