Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[afleitch]

Trump tweeted again

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He seems so happy in his dotage too

[Gass3268]

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[Koharu]

Honestly, thinking the religious vote is what sunk Moore more than anything else....

Snipping your post because, honestly... no.



This is the future of the Democratic party. We all need to be supporting black folks (and other minorities), especially black women, and encouraging them to run and doing whatever else is needed, election-time or not.

[Brittain33]

Odd that white men outnumbered white women so much in this election. Conservative women staying home?

[Vern]

Doug Jones isn't some superstar, he was just lucky that Roy Moore sucked as a human. Otherwise, he would have lost big time.

[Koharu]

Odd that white men outnumbered white women so much in this election. Conservative women staying home?

I don't find it particularly odd. This man, by all accounts, harassed and molested women. Those who would have otherwise turned out to vote for him (white women) couldn't bring themselves to do that.

[Koharu]

To go with my earlier post, here's a recap from someone who spoke to the Mobile County NAACP about what was done differently in this election via 2016.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/940657094050615297

Quoting here two of the points I find particularly important: "The state NAACP instructed its local branches to call every registered voter in the state who did not vote in 2016. The Lower Alabama chapter made it through the entire list successfully.

A dozen paid canvassers have been going door to door in the Mobile area all week. That did not happen in 2016"

[Oryxslayer]

I posted this last night right before I went to bed in the last thread, however it appears it didn't go through due to the thread lock so, I guess I'll post it here.

The most impressive result last night in my mind was Lee county. I think everyone expected this county to be a swing result - Lee usually tracks about 1% more democratic then the state of Alabama. Nobody I think expected Jones to match his Tuscaloosa margins and beat the margins out of Mobile and Madison - all in Lee county. Lee over-preformed the NYT, Cooks, and 538s benchmarks - by 16%(!) in the case of 538. Jones really was successful in getting Auburn students and faculty out to vote. 

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Odd that white men outnumbered white women so much in this election. Conservative women staying home?

I don't find it particularly odd. This man, by all accounts, harassed and molested women. Those who would have otherwise turned out to vote for him (white women) couldn't bring themselves to do that.

Eh, I feel like you could spin that narrative either way. If white woman turnout is low, it's because they didn't want to turn out for Moore. If white woman turnout is high, it's because they want to turn out to defeat Moore.

I'm not necessarily saying that you are wrong or that your logic is flawed, I would just need more evidence before I backed that claim. I would have expected the latter to be true (although maybe I am getting places like Alabama and California confused in my head).

[riceowl]

Going through Megathread 1 is a delight

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As much as I would love to see Roy Moore in the Senate, I don't want to wind up with a competitive race in Alabama of all places[/quote]

It's Alabama. He can't lose the GE.[/quote]

[Nyvin]

Tuscaloosa, Shelby, and Lee counties all just saw a total Republican collapse, that was crazy

[Devout Centrist]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

Many in the South never conceded the Civil War. It didn’t matter at the end of the day.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL... Trump now says he originally supported Strange because "knew that Moore would lose". I guess that's the reason he deleted the pro-Strange Tweets.

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/940904649728708609

[Val]

where the republicans at lolll

[Adam Griffin]

Here's another map showing Jones/Moore vote share (two-way) by USDA region, which I think is somewhat relevant for most of Alabama given its history. Sadly, it makes the Glorious Relative Rebound in the steel counties in NW Alabama look non-existent.

[KingSweden]

I still can’t believe I witnessed Ala-freakin-bama elect not just a Democrat but a fairly liberal one to the Senate

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Roy Moore: the American François Fillon?

Both are conservatives on the hard-right of their parties who defeated overwhelming frontrunners for their parties' nominations only to be caught by scandal and, despite absolute loyalty from many base voters, end up losing to essentially generic centrist candidates.

[Sir Mohamed]

Roy Moore: the American François Fillon?

Both are conservatives on the hard-right of their parties who defeated overwhelming frontrunners for their parties' nominations only to be caught by scandal and, despite absolute loyalty from many base voters, end up losing to essentially generic centrist candidates.

Was Strange ever an overwhelming favorite for the primary? I'd put that into question. Fillon is also not a pedophile.

[Mr. Smith]

Roy Moore: the American François Fillon?

Both are conservatives on the hard-right of their parties who defeated overwhelming frontrunners for their parties' nominations only to be caught by scandal and, despite absolute loyalty from many base voters, end up losing to essentially generic centrist candidates.

Jones is no centrist, and Moore's rhetoric is closer to Le Pen. Jones is more comparable to Hamon or even Melenchon than Macron.

[Wiz in Wis]

Roy Moore: the American François Fillon?

Both are conservatives on the hard-right of their parties who defeated overwhelming frontrunners for their parties' nominations only to be caught by scandal and, despite absolute loyalty from many base voters, end up losing to essentially generic centrist candidates.

Jones is no centrist, and Moore's rhetoric is closer to Le Pen. Jones is more comparable to Hamon or even Melenchon than Macron.

I'd agree with this. Jones, on the issues, is closer to McCaskill than Manchin.

[Nyvin]

Roy Moore: the American François Fillon?

Both are conservatives on the hard-right of their parties who defeated overwhelming frontrunners for their parties' nominations only to be caught by scandal and, despite absolute loyalty from many base voters, end up losing to essentially generic centrist candidates.

Jones is no centrist, and Moore's rhetoric is closer to Le Pen. Jones is more comparable to Hamon or even Melenchon than Macron.

I'd agree with this. Jones, on the issues, is closer to McCaskill than Manchin.

I would even say Tom Carper is more moderate/conservative than Jones, given some of Jones' campaigning.

[Sir Mohamed]

Roy Moore: the American François Fillon?

Both are conservatives on the hard-right of their parties who defeated overwhelming frontrunners for their parties' nominations only to be caught by scandal and, despite absolute loyalty from many base voters, end up losing to essentially generic centrist candidates.

Jones is no centrist, and Moore's rhetoric is closer to Le Pen. Jones is more comparable to Hamon or even Melenchon than Macron.

I'd agree with this. Jones, on the issues, is closer to McCaskill than Manchin.

I would even say Tom Carper is more moderate/conservative than Jones, given some of Jones' campaigning.

Same with Joe Donnelly.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Mo Brooks just announced on the House floor that he is battling prostate cancer.

[MAINEiac4434]

Doug Jones isn't some superstar, he was just lucky that Roy Moore sucked as a human. Otherwise, he would have lost big time.

Maybe so, but no other Democrat (ok, maybe Sue Bell Cobb) would’ve won.

[VPH]

Trend map from 2016.



The fact that almost every county swung to Jones far below the average (the statewide swing was 29.3 points, but most counties are in the low 20s) suggests that turnout was a really big part of the story.

Also, LOL Lee County.

Love that Dem trend in the Northwest corner of the state. Industrial, unionized area. Jones did better there than any Senate candidate since Susan Parker in 2002 and better than any Presidential one since Al Gore in 2000 (from neighboring TN).