Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[PSOL]

Not like he had a 9 figure Super PAC behind him or anything.

He had a 9 figure super PAC bcuz he had the support of the people (corporations are people) behind him.

People who make money sitting on there ass all day while the poor are working two jobs to make ends meet, sure.

Whoopsy daisy, for the appropriate above poster

Am I the only person who thinks Democrats should be spending money in Ohio and Texas?

Forcing Trump to actually campaign in Ohio would be a good tactical move, and I think we actually can win Texas this time around, especially if O'Rourke is the nominee, or we have a nominee popular with Hispanic Americans (so maybe Cortez Masto).

Why would trump need to campaign in ohio lol. If he is losing ohio he loses the election anyway. If I was trump and the dems started to campaign in ohio I would ignore it.

Maybe because the state has Trump at a negative approval, and its very possible that he could lose the state? Because the state of OH is possibly maxed out on R voters, and could move D? Because predicting a state 2 years out is stupid and fool hearty?

Take your pick.

This didn't actually address the point. If Trump does manage to lose Ohio, he's already losing enough other states that he's doomed regardless.

Yeah, if he loses around 1% in three states, hes doomed anyway. He didnt win by an Obama 2008 margin, losing anything in PA, WI, and MI screws him.

The problem is that you are assuming for a uniform swing, basically that for OH to go Dem, the national electorate must be around D+8-9 as the state voted around that much to the right of the nation. The problem is that the voters in OH, as I address, have a negative approval of the president, and are more sour on him than the voters of AZ. If the Ds can capitalize on anti-Trump voters, OH suddenly looks much more easy to win than his win in 2016 would suggest. Meanwhile, a state, such as GA, while being much closer in 2016, being only around R+4-5, takes much more effort because the voters here havent soured as much on the president. Its very possible to see the Dems win IA(a state he is at around -7 in) and OH due to Trump anger, while losing NC and GA(I leave AZ out of the picture because I would see it flipping in such a scenario).

If the GOP have already maxed out their areas of support, then the state becomes easier to swing. If Democrats can win anti-Trump voters, or Trump's approval lowers in the state, then it becomes easier to swing. But in the end, this is all two years out, and neither of us can be completely accurate in our predictions.

[YE]

Let me fix this mess by quoting 2 posts in 1 so neither of you get cheated.

She is definitely not the face of the party, but does represent a large element of the party. Its possible that she is the future face of the D party, but its too early to tell. All we can see is that she clearly has established influence in the D party and does have a future.

Senator: Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Governor: Tim Walz (D-MN)

[Mr. Smith]

Are these the swing voters that will vote against Trump if we nominate a #populist white male who whispers about race and gender issues?

Congratulations to Landslide Lyndon and you! You’ve both proudly displayed total ignorance of a fairly simple theory by falsely (intentionally or not), that the “economic anxiety” issue was meant to explain the voting habits of Republican partisans. It’s obvious to anyone above a 3rd grade comprehension level that it was meant to be applied to swing voters who were drawn to Trump’s faux-economic populism due to their anxious financial situation and that of their community.

There is a ton of evidence that the opposite is true: they were attracted to Trump because of his racial resentment and xenophobic rhetoric.
But keep believing that Ms. Minton means Wall Street bankers and fat cats when she talks about  "these people".

Yeah, some lefties have to get their heads out of their *****.

The average Trump voters (hell, the average voter in general) doesn't care about Wall Street or bankers. This is all about hurting minorities, liberal academics, and people who live in the cities.

Yes but the average Trump voter isn't a swing voter. A swing Obama-Trump vote is less likely to be against the bolded than the average Trump voter, even if they are more culturally conservative than the modern day Democratic Party.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Probably Elmo from Sesame Street

[Atlas Force]

I'm just happy knowing that all of this foaming-at-the-mouth obsession with her is going to backfire spectacularly.

[TDAS04]

https://www.mediamatters.org/video/2019/01/08/sean-hannity-issues-dire-warning-if-taxes-are-raised-rich-people-are-not-going-remodel-their-homes/222456

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He's also claimed that higher taxes will stop rich people from taking expensive vacations.

[Atlas Force]

It will vote for Trump.  All the ballots will be lost except for Peter Griffin's. 

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Humphrey/Connally landslide on Normal

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/937126

[James Monroe]

- California
- Oregon
- New Mexico
- Wyoming
- West Virginia
- Rhode Island
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Oklahoma
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Utah

All safe states where Trump or Clinton really overperformed/underperformed in 2016.

Bonus: which one will swing the hardest in the other direction compared to the 2016 results?

[Big Abraham]

That sounds as convincing as Jeff Sessions New York accent.

[Former President tack50]

(Though LOL@the notion that Tumblr people make up a significant portion of Democratic voters.)

There are currently more than 23 million Tumblr users in the United States. That's slightly higher than the total population of Florida. Even if we assume just half of them vote Democratic, that's a pretty significant portion of Democratic voters

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I rarely vote for far left parties, but looking at the situation in Israel, I'd probably vote Meretz (even if I'd be tempted to keep voting for Labour)

Then again I barely know much about Israeli politics, and I'm fine with anyone who isn't Netanyahu or a possible ally of Netanyahu. I'm also uneasy with the Arab parties, though I'm unsure about the specific level of uneasyness I should feel (Hadash seems ok, but the other 3 I'm unsure how uneasy I should feel)

[PSOL]

It's terrible, but some folks don't listen to reason.  Being old enough to have had living family members who remember epidemics of Diptheria, Whooping Cough, Polio, and other diseases that are preventable has made me immune to the Jenny McCarthys of the world on this issue.

People take the relatively good health of children today for granted.  Part of the reason for this is the vaccines that people are deriding, and for no good reason.

[Atlas Force]

If it somehow passes, I have no doubt the courts would shoot it down. This is a very irrelevant piece of legislation, to say the least.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

And I think so long as McCready is unable to catch up, Harris should be certified regardless of fraud. An insurmountable race ought to lead to certification.

Your exponentially increasing stupidity proves the second law of thermodynamics.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Halloween update.

dude, I am putting you on ignore if you keep concern trolling about wv. Manchin is fine, literally no one doesnt think so.

Laugh all you want, but this map was better than most of the other chumps.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What he did in making a mockery of genuine victims of hate crimes makes me want the justice system to make an example of him.

But then, I am reminded:

Watch as he's sentenced to a longer term than Paul Manafort.

So we shouldn't make an example of someone who has actually put lives at risk because someone from the other side is getting a lighter sentence?

No, and no one should be "made an example of".

I certainly agree with the underlined part.  The whole concept runs counter to Equal Justice Under the Law.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Chapter 16: A Bold Maneuver

“Blairite?! You’re working with the Spears of Ice?” BRTD asked. “I thought you felt betrayed by Schultz.”

“I do feel betrayed by Schultz—and by myself, for laying the groundwork for him on the Forum and participating in the Forum environment that led to the neo-mods.” Blairite looked like a battered night or an aged king or lion. He had seen, it was clear, many a battle. “I’ve definitely drifted left over the past twenty years. And now I’ve made an alliance with some neo-mods to take down the system from within. In fact, I even have the support of the most powerful neo-mod of all—Neo-Modadmin Neo-Virginia, who’s based in England now for her resistance to Schultzianism. She used Neo-Joe Republic’s resources in the Western United States to spy on you three and find this cabin. Then she sent me in to use Bryan for our own faction’s purposes.”

“And what purposes are those?” the wizard asked.

“Taking him back to 2020 and running him against Schultz,” said Blairite. “Believe me, I don’t feel any better about running an outmoded dinosaur progressive like Bryan than I imagine Landslide Lyndon does, but we’ve all decided it’s probably the best thing that can be done.”

“That’s our plan too,” said jfern. “We might not be as far apart as you think.”

“Maybe so,” said Blairite. “What about these two?” he asked, waving his positron rifle intimidatingly at Dave and the wizard. “What’s their story?”

“We have a different strategy—” began Dave, but the wizard tried to shush him. “No, don’t shush me,” said Dave. “Honesty is the best policy. Anyway, as I was saying, Blairite, our strategy is to help Biden win in 2020 by delivering West Virginia and its neighboring states.”

“I see,” said Blairite. “I’d much rather President Biden than President Bryan, but why West Virginia? It’s common knowledge that the racist West Virginia hicks are locked-in, inelastic anti-Democrats.”

“We have ways to change that,” said the wizard, who Dave guessed had decided that if they were in for Dave’s penny then they were in for his own pound. “And, like he said, we’re going to deliver the neighboring states too.”

“And how are you doing that?” asked BRTD. “I’ve never understood this.”

“Through the power of megacoattails,” said the wizard. “It’s when a candidate wins a state by so much that they do better in neighboring states too. Obama’s megacoattails in Illinois gave him Indiana in 2008.”

“That’s nonsense,” said Blairite. “I’m not going to let you—”

“Naur an edraith ammen! Naur dan i ngaurhoth!” boomed the wizard suddenly, and immediately the cabin was wreathed in flames. Everybody scrambled out through different doors and windows. Dave and the wizard reached BRTD’s car first, and, with another spell from the wizard to hotwire the car, they were off in a jiffy, leaving BRTD, Landslide Lyndon, jfern, Blairite, the other Spears of Ice, and Bryan’s brain behind them.

TO BE CONTINUED...

[Atlas Force]

Cuellar would tank.

[Big Abraham]

AOC will probably stick around for some time, but I see Tlaib losing against unified opposition in 2020. I just don't see her radical positions as being that popular...

Yeah, her radical positions probably aren't that popular in a district where Trump got *checks notes* %18.1 of the vote.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I actually agree with her here. This is why unlike a lot of Democrats, I don't consider FDR one of the best presidents. I can't excuse locking up Japanese civilians.

I agree. This should immediately come to mind when one thinks of race-based Roosevelt policies; why it didn't for Ocasio-Cortez, I can't say.

[S019]

He's running for Senate in 2022. I'm sure that's what it is.

Could be, buy why announce now? He's probably going to challenge Al Lawson - arguably the most pro-Trump black Democrat - if anything, but I suspect he's running for the big job.

Keep in mind, the reason we're seeing loser candidates suddenly making moves towards the Presidency is based not in politics but rather profit. Running a campaign pays great. You loan yourself some money, you write a book, you collect donations and then basically travel the country while collecting the interest on the initial loan. The rest is cycled through a network of consultants with greased hands who get hired at rates that more often than not well above that of the market and basically help launder the money. Ben Carson was a pro at this. I knew Ben Carson was doing exactly this, but I still paid $30 to buy his book so he can sign it

[_]

Mike Madigan

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Press F to pay respects for images

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

the screams of insecurity in my head