2018 Senate Rankings

[GeorgiaModerate]

With a week to go, here are my final rankings.

Definitions:

Safe: The outcome is all but certain, barring something crazy upending the race.
Likely: It would be a real surprise if the favorite lost, but it's not completely implausible.
Lean: Neither outcome would be a surprise, but one side has a definite advantage.
Tilt: It's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick.
Tossup: I don't have a clue (to be avoided if possible).

Ratings:

Safe D/I (18): CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI
Likely D (3): MN-S, NJ, WV
Lean D (5): AZ, FL, IN, MT, NV
Tilt R (3): MO, TN, TX
Lean R (1): ND
Likely R (1): MS-S
Safe R (4): MS, NE, UT, WY

Changes:

MO: Tilt D to Tilt R
TN: Tilt D to Tilt R
WV: Lean D to Likely D
WI: Likely D to Safe D

Overall: if all the races go the way they're forecast, the result would be no net change (D's gain AZ/NV, lose MO/ND). 

[ElectionsGuy]

No more toss-ups

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe

Republicans: 52 ✔
Democrats: 48

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win re-election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No more toss-ups

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe

Republicans: 52 ✔
Democrats: 48

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win re-election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

These are my exact expectations too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I found this interesting.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/capitol-insiders-make-their-predictions-on-the-midterms

[Badger]

Prediction:



Confidence:



Confidence of each vulnerable incumbent winning (vulnerable incumbent = lean and toss-up races):

Tester > Cruz > Nelson >Donnelly > McCaskill > Heller > Heitkamp

Concur

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Halloween update.

[Bidenworth2020]

Halloween update.

dude, I am putting you on ignore if you keep concern trolling about wv. Manchin is fine, literally no one doesnt think so.

[OBD]

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2151

[Vespucci]

MI: Safe D to Likely D
IN: Tossup to Lean D
MO: Lean D to Tossup
WV: Lean D to Likely D
TN: Lean R to Likely R
FL: Lean D to Likely D

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Time to make another (presumably) final pick. I predict that the incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly (D) will survive in Indiana. There is certainly lots of evidence on both sides in this race, and I'm not here to ding anyone who is betting on Braun. But ultimately, I've always had a good feeling about Donnelly, even when I had the race at Lean R for state electoral history reasons, and when polling is inconclusive as it is here, I've learned over the years that it's best I trust my gut. And it's telling me to bet on Donnelly.

For now, I will continue to mull over Arizona and Missouri, though if I had to choose today, I'd pick Sinema in AZ and Hawley in MO.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (4): NJ, NM, OH, WV
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), MT, FL, IN
Toss-Up (2): MO, AZ
Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)
Likely R (3): MS-Special, TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Former President tack50]

I'll do a probably final prediction. Since it's the last one, I won't use tossups or tilts



Changes from the 4th of October:

NJ: Lean D->Likely D
WV: Lean D->Likely D
MI: Safe D->Likely D
WI: Likely D->Safe D

FL: Tossup/Tilt D->Lean D
NV: Tossup/Tilt D->Lean D
IN: Tossup/Tilt D->Lean D
TN: Tossup/Tilt R->Lean R
MO: Tossup/Tilt D-> Lean R
MT: Tossup/Tilt D->Lean D

The races I'm least sure about are IN, MO, NV and AZ (I'd consider those 4 tossups if I was using tossups)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New Mexico moves off the board into the Safe D category, and Arizona moves into Lean D - thanks Trafalgar for giving me confidence on this final pick.

I'll decide who to bet on in Missouri, the truest coin flip contest of this cycle, tomorrow.

Safe D (18): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI, NM
Likely D (3): NJ, OH, WV
Lean D (5):  NV (D+1), MT, FL, IN, AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (1): MO
Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)
Likely R (3): MS-Special, TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Xing]

I'll be putting this, my gubernatorial predictions, and my House predictions in the Predictions board, but I'll give my #analysis and #reasoning for my ratings here.

Arizona
This state has been teasing Democrats for a long time, and while it seems like it's always just a little bit out of reach, my guess is that this year actually is finally the year that Democrats get lucky. Arizona has definitely gotten less red over the past several years, and while it's still more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, an open seat in a Democratic-leaning year was always going to be competitive. In my opinion, neither Sinema nor McSally have run great campaigns, but McSally has made more missteps, and the moves by her campaign suggest that she knows that she's in trouble. Public polling gives a slight edge to Sinema. While I think this race is far from a foregone conclusion, I think the circumstances are finally right for Democrats to win here.
Tilt D

Florida
Unlike the other Obama/Trump state Democrats, Nelson is actually facing a tough challenge, and Scott has managed to keep this close throughout the entire cycle. Polls in October definitely showed the race moving toward Nelson, but more recent polls show a bit of tightening, making the trend a little more ambiguous here. While I think that Nelson is in for his closest shave yet, I think that fundamentals will win out, in the end.
Lean D

Indiana
Donnelly was written off by many early on in the cycle, and it was pretty clear to me that this was premature. Indeed, Donnelly has outperformed the expectations of most, and Braun, thought to be a good choice for Indiana Republicans, has proven to be quite underwhelming. That said, Donnelly is definitely not out of the woods, and polls are showing only a tiny advantage for him overall, with some polls showing Braun ahead. This is another race that really could go either way, and I think it will test whether or not Donnelly really was an "accidental" Senator, or if he's a better campaigner than people gave him credit for. I'll give him a slight edge here, knowing that I could be wrong.
Tilt D

Minnesota Special
Not much to say here, other than that the best polls for Housley have her down by mid-single digits, and the worst... well, they're quite for her. Minnesota being close in 2016 doesn't automatically make this race competitive, and all signs point to Democrats massively improving in the Midwest (from 2016.)
Safe D

(I'll also mention Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which were thought to be competitive early on. While they did go to Trump, this is a different year, all four Democrats are better candidate than Hillary Clinton, and in the case of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Republican candidate are godawful. Either way, all four are Safe D.)

Mississippi Special
While this could be a sleeper race, and McDaniel beating out Hyde-Smith in the jungle primary could make things interesting, it's not going to be easy for Epsy to top 50% in a runoff, much less in an inelastic state like Mississippi. And while McDaniel is a pretty terrible candidate, he's certainly not Roy Moore levels of bad.
Likely R

Missouri
This has been a really hard fought and divisive race, for Atlas users inside and outside of Missouri. Like Donnelly, McCaskill was written off early on, but has ended up keeping this race very close and competitive. Recent polls show a dead heat. The partisan lean of Missouri makes it hard for McCaskill, but it's one of several states where statewide races are closer than presidential races. I think this one is really going to come down to how good of a year it is for the Democrats, and McCaskill will need to hope that it's a very good one. My gut tells me that McCaskill will eke out a win, but I'm going to allow my brain to override my gut and say Hawley very narrowly wins.
Tilt R

Montana
While Tester's chances have been overrated by many, he's definitely benefited from a good national environment, and the fact that statewide races are usually much closer than presidential races in Montana. Rosendale, while not a phenomenal candidate, has been relatively inoffensive, and has kept Tester to narrow leads in the polls. If the blue wave is looking more like a ripple, Tester's going to be in trouble, but a wave will almost definitely be enough to save him.
Lean D

Nevada
I've already analyzed this race to death, but I'll give it one last go before Tuesday. While polls make this look like it could go either way, Nevada polls have been wrong time and time again, and just about every other sign points to Heller's political career ending on Tuesday. You would expect an unpopular Republican incumbent who isn't particularly noteworthy to lose in a Democratic-leaning state in a good year for Democrats. While this was also true in 2012, Rosen, unlike Berkeley, is not facing an ethics scandal, and her only "handicap" is being relatively new to politics, and we've seen over the past few years how little that really means. The early voting may have pointed to a very close race during the first week, but the Democrats really solidified their advantage in the second week, and Republicans got fewer votes in Washoe, a key county for Heller. I'm feeling very comfortable calling this one for Rosen, as I have been all year.
Likely D

North Dakota
Heitkamp was always going to face a very tough challenge this year, since North Dakota is much more strongly Republican at the federal and statewide level than pretty much any other state that Democrats have to defend. While it looked as though she could survive early on, she's made some missteps, and doesn't seem to be able to win over enough Trump voters to survive. If the Democratic wave is more like a tsunami, maybe there's still hope for her, but it looks like she's most likely done.
Likely R

Tennessee
I was ready to call this Safe R a couple of weeks ago, but the re-tightening of some polls has given me a bit of pause. I'm certainly not about to believe that this is a coin flip, but if Republicans are getting wiped out just about everywhere, it's possible that we could see Bredesen pull off an upset, but only in the absolute best-case scenario for Democrats. Otherwise, Blackburn should win relatively easily.
Likely R

Texas
I'm not yet a believe in Swing State Texas, but O'Rourke has actually run a very strong campaign, and has brought out some voters who don't usually vote in midterms. While Cruz is still clearly ahead in the polls, he's not so far ahead as to appear completely safe. The high turnout thus far gives O'Rourke some hope, but it's more likely that he simply makes this race close. He probably won't quite be able to knock off Cruz, but I won't rule it out entirely just yet.
Lean R

West Virginia
Manchin is fortunate that Morrisey, who has been quite mediocre, is his opponent this year. I'm not one to sing Manchin's praises, but he is quite well-known and decently well-liked in his state, which is why he looks poised to win, despite it being such a Trump-friendly state. While the partisan lean of West Virginia prevents me from calling this race safe, the fact that Morrisey is down in most of his internals, and Republicans seem to be spending less here both suggest that Manchin is in a very strong position.
Likely D

So my final prediction is: EVEN
Republicans - 51
Democrats - 49

[OneJ]

My Final Prediction (unless there's an emergency no later than Monday):

[adrac]

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aveeBl

1. Nevada
2. North Dakota
3. Arizona

4. Missouri

5. Indiana
6. Florida
7. Texas
8. Montana

Hopefully my last map, baring anything sudden.

Changes:
Tennessee: Lean R -> Likely R
Texas: Likely R -> Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TN and MO are still tossups

[adrac]

TN and MO are still tossups

I don't disagree with you on MO (tilt for me represents the same probability range as tossup), but I think Donnelly's chances are at least a little above 60%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I can barely believe I'm doing this, this was a race I had at Likely R when the cycle began, and I'm going against Sabato's final pick here, but let's face it, Missouri has surprised us all this cycle. Special State Legislative Elections held in February and June featured Dems massively outperforming expectations. The incumbent governor was forced into resignation. And quite frankly, Republican Senate Candidate Josh Hawley has done what he could to hand this race over to the Dems. I'm ultimately putting a lot of faith and trust in Marist here, but hey, it's time to be bold.

Missouri moves to Lean D.

Safe D (18): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI, NM
Likely D (3): NJ, OH, WV
Lean D (6):  NV (D+1), MT, FL, IN, AZ (D+2), MO
Lean R (1): ND (D+1)
Likely R (3): MS-Special, TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My final guess:



My friend's final guess (the guy who convinced me that MA SEN GE 2018 is likely D, says he now thinks it is safe D, so I moved mine back to safe D as well):



Ps. he has absolutely no idea how Wisconsin will go.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MO leans D for all the ones who think Hawley has it in the bag. Bredesen will win, also. Runoff in MS

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Rankings

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe

Republicans: 52 ✔
Democrats: 48

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win the election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

I have had difficulties dealing with polls showing Donnelly and McCaskill leading, but I still think the fundamentals in those states favor the Republicans, as well as the undecided being very Republican-leaning. This is one of those where I'm doubling down on my gut instinct that I had initially instead of believing the polls.

[adrac]

Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)

Should have D+1 here.

[libertpaulian]

Final Rankings

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe

Republicans: 52 ✔
Democrats: 48

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win the election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

I have had difficulties dealing with polls showing Donnelly and McCaskill leading, but I still think the fundamentals in those states favor the Republicans, as well as the undecided being very Republican-leaning. This is one of those where I'm doubling down on my gut instinct that I had initially instead of believing the polls.

Don't the undecideds seem to be leaning toward Donnelly?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)

Should have D+1 here.

Original has been corrected. Thanks.

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Rankings

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe

Republicans: 52 ✔
Democrats: 48

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win the election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

I have had difficulties dealing with polls showing Donnelly and McCaskill leading, but I still think the fundamentals in those states favor the Republicans, as well as the undecided being very Republican-leaning. This is one of those where I'm doubling down on my gut instinct that I had initially instead of believing the polls.

Don't the undecideds seem to be leaning toward Donnelly?

Evidence?