Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[Fuzzy Bear]

Can you imagine the cacophony of incongruence that Trump/Winfrey would have been?

[Fuzzy Bear]

All these """people""" that believe that lower middle class rural conservative cishet whites are the only ones that matter need to shut the f**k up forever.

It's possible to legitimately care about everyone without pandering.

As if the op is suggesting anything like that(and no, paying significant attention to non white cishet issues is not "pandering"."

The Democratic Party (as a whole, some individual politicians have made good efforts) is hypocritically pathetic in its efforts to appeal to a large group of people - especially poor blacks and poor whites - saying one thing (pandering) but doing barely anything to improve whatever the problem is.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Another black legend ruined by the white supremacist legal system. It's OJ all over again smdh. Rest in Power, King.

Don't you dare put a rich murderer and a rich rapist as being symbols of our broken justice system. The crimes they've committed would have been the same result if they have been born white instead of black. The fact OJ and Cosby have defenders after all the evidence gathered all the DNA in the courtroom proving they were the perpetuators of the crimes just shows it takes fame and fortunate to have blind followers following you like a king of his country. There are poor black men in this country who would love to have a fairer justice system granted to them. Sad to say it's not the case in the good U S of A.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Yeah the anti-semite isn't winning this. For republicans Freitas and Vogel are both from this seat

For heaven's sake she is not an anti-Semite. Criticizing US policy with Israel is not anti-Semitic and that is what her book highlighted. What is anti-Semitic was the march on Charlottesville that the Jesus Christ adorned GOP refused to sharply condemn. Get it right.

Nobody's allowed to say anything about Israel in this country. For all the right wing whining about people like Laura Ingram being taken down by "leftist SJW mobs," you never hear those on the right say anything about all the laws passed that essentially criminalizes the criticism or boycotting of Israel.

AIPAC has such a stranglehold that even the overwhelming majority of the politicians accused of being anti-semitic because they actually criticized Israel for something still voted to have $225 million of US taxpayer money go to Israel's Iron Dome system to allow them to kill as many Palestinians as they want without any consequences.

Oh god. You can criticize the aid money, but the Iron Dome allows us to defend innocent citizens from missiles that are launched on us in order to murder us. I don't care about which lies about Israel you believe, and what are your views on aid money, but saying that me and my family should die as a "consequence" is absolutely disgusting.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Can we please end the memes currently going on?

Yeah it's time to bring Iowa is Rubio Country to an end

[Fuzzy Bear]

Faves (D): Ben Jealous, Stacey Abrams, Abdul El-Sayed, Sue Bell Cobb, James Smith
Least (D): Gavin Newsom, Gina Raimondo, Andrew Cuomo, Jared Polis, J.B. Pritzker

Faves (R): Charlie Baker, Kay Ivey, Kim Reynolds, Allan Fung
Least (R): Scott Walker, Casey Cagle, Kris Kobach, Adam Laxalt

[Fuzzy Bear]

He was only a vice president, but I'm 99% sure that Nelson Rockefeller would be a Democrat today, given is support for universal healthcare, more government spending, pro-environment and civil-rights stances. Gerald Ford would be Charlie Baker or Brian Sandoval style Republican today (he was pro-choice and supportive of gay's rights, but more center-right on economic issues).

Depends was Rockefeller actually liberals or was he liberal due to convenience (due to the New Deal Alignmnet ) because if it was convenience he would be a moderate Republican today and be far more conservative than he was in OTL

Given how he acted as Vice President--when he was not in an position of real power and would not likely be running for President again--I would go with the fact that he was actually liberal. I think Rockefeller would be a Democrat today primarily because even if we take an argument that mah519 advanced in a previous thread, that Rockefeller's view of society was primarily Republican, even if his politics were liberal, I think there is space in the Democratic camp for that today, in an era where Michael Bloomberg gives a speech at the Democratic National Convention.

Yeah the Rockefeller-Bloomberg comparison makes sense, but...may I also add (one from each party!) Mitt Romney and Andrew Cuomo if we're gonna compare current-day politicians to that guy?

[Fuzzy Bear]

How is debating the existence of Jesus Christ fringe and psuedohistorical? One of my skeptic friends has a theory that Jesus was just a fictional character that combined the personalities of real life figures and the mythology of earlier civilization. I'm not totally convinced by his assertion but it's not like all historians are in agreement with the lack of evidence spouted as proof a historical person named Jesus existed in this world.

"How is debating the theory of evolution fringe and pseudo historical?  It's not like all scientists are in agreement about it."

Consensus matters - and in both biology and history, we see an overwhelming consensus on the subjects of biological evolution and the historicity of Jesus, respectively.  A small minority of them disagreeing does not outweigh the fact that the vast majority are firmly convinced of Jesus as a historical figure (albeit not necessarily the son of God).

As the agnostic scholar Ehrman put it, "But as a historian I think evidence matters. And the past matters. And for anyone to whom both evidence and the past matter, a dispassionate consideration of the case makes it quite plain: Jesus did exist. He may not have been the Jesus that your mother believes in or the Jesus of the stained-glass window or the Jesus of your least favorite televangelist or the Jesus proclaimed by the Vatican, the Southern Baptist Convention, the local megachurch, or the California Gnostic. But he did exist, and we can say a few things, with relative certainty, about him."  

(Here's the full excerpt of his book opening: https://www.thegospelcoalition.org/blogs/justin-taylor/the-historical-evidence-of-the-existence-of-jesus-of-nazareth/ )

If your position is against the vast consensus of experts in the relevant field, then it is by definition a fringe position.  The thing that is bizarre about Jesus mythicism for atheists is that while it is possible for Evangelicals to argue that belief in evolution is utterly incompatible with Christianity (I think they'd be mistaken, but I digress), there is absolutely nothing incompatible with belief in a historical Jesus and atheism.  Believing Jesus was a historical figure says absolutely nothing about his divinity, so there shouldn't be any epistemic problems for an atheist to assent to the historical consensus here. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Lean D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Fuzzy Bear]

End the tariffs, undo the tax cuts, expand the travel ban.

Throughout my first year I would at least try and focus on implementing universal healthcare, constructing a proper nationwide public transit system (high-speed rail throughout the country yes please), negotiating TTIP including a provision according to which multinationals will have to pay their fair share in taxes, and ending mass immigration by abolishing the diversity lottery and instating a (very low) cap on the total number of legal immigrants allowed. I'd also crack down on illegal immigration more than is currently the case and make life difficult for sanctuary cities in every possible way, and I'd replace the system of mass surveillance with a system that is much more targeted towards specific individuals behaving suspiciously.

[Fuzzy Bear]

You don't have anything to apologize for, The Saint. The Democrats these days (including my buddy IceSpear, who is often not so bad otherwise) remind me of how the religious right used to be back in the Bush years. They are really high strung and convinced that they're right, but at the end of the day they're human, too. They, too, fall prey to the evils of prejudice and bias and inconsistency and bad faith that they accuse the Republicans of doing. Once you realize that, the respect you have for them falls away. You realize that they aren't any better than you are, they only pretend that they are. Some of them hide behind appeals to authority like the New York Times or CNN, and this gives them a false sense of security that they're right. But what they don't realize is that behind these brand names are people too, just like you and me, with all the foibles that people have, as well. So you don't have to justify yourself to anyone.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Lean D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Fuzzy Bear]

Moron-In-Chief

Did you stay up all night composing this post?

 

[Fuzzy Bear]

Scott has never won the governorship by more than 1-point margins, in Republican wave years against one of the worst state Dem parties after spending millions of his own money.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Except for Mark Warner and missing Obama, it's actually not such a bad record. The frontrunner usually ends up getting the nod. In 2000, Bush and Gore started out as frontrunners. In 2004, Kerry started as the Dem frontrunner and got it. In 2008, Giuliani and McCain were joint frontrunners and McCain got it. Obama was 2nd and got it. In 2012, Romney started out as the frontrunner and got it. In 2016, Hillary was obviously the frontrunner for the Dems, and Trump was the frontrunner from within a month or two or his entering the race. The biggest surprises (Obama and Trump) were surprises because people had them off the radar; they didn't think this person would run. But once the field was set, starting out as a frontrunner is a good predictor of ultimate victory in the nomination.

That depends on when you start thinking someone frontrunner. Kerry for example wasn't the frontrunner until the first few primaries. McCain lost a lot of momentum before the primaries.

Great list though. Quite fun to read.

Kerry was the front runner way back in 2003.

Nope. Lieberman lead polls until summer 2003, then Howard Dean became the frontrunner and just before the Iowa caucus everyone thought Dean was just inevitable. Then Kerry upset the race when he won Iowa and Dean screamed, and that's history.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I rarely vote for far left parties, but looking at the situation in Israel, I'd probably vote Meretz (even if I'd be tempted to keep voting for Labour)

Then again I barely know much about Israeli politics, and I'm fine with anyone who isn't Netanyahu or a possible ally of Netanyahu. I'm also uneasy with the Arab parties, though I'm unsure about the specific level of uneasyness I should feel (Hadash seems ok, but the other 3 I'm unsure how uneasy I should feel)

[Fuzzy Bear]

Halloween update.

dude, I am putting you on ignore if you keep concern trolling about wv. Manchin is fine, literally no one doesnt think so.

Laugh all you want, but this map was better than most of the other chumps.

[Fuzzy Bear]

She is on the board of Our Revolution, a Sanders affiliated PAC.

Even if it is politically motivated, what I doubt, it's a thing of her own. In all fairness, I don't think Bernard would encourage such tactics. But to be honest, even though I like Biden, it's not hard believe he behaved inappropriately. There is a ton of video/picture evidence where he goes too far in my judgment.

Chris Coons' daughter stuff was pretty sick.

[Fuzzy Bear]

April 8, 1992: Governor Brown defies calls to drop out of the race, saying "it would be a mistake to nominate Paul Tsongas" and he is aiming to pick up as many delegates as possible (likely including a win in his home-state of California) to deny Tsongas the nomination.
April 11, 1992: Bill Clinton beats the rest of the field in the Virginia caucus, getting 33% of the vote, however the uncommitted delegate slate gets 52% of the vote. James Carville says that Senator Tsongas' weakness in Southern primaries is a bad sign for the general election.
April 16, 1992: A nationwide Gallup poll puts President Bush in the lead with 39% of the vote to 32% for Senator Tsongas and Ross Perot on 21% of the vote.
April 23, 1992: A general election poll in Pennsylvania shows 86% of the state's Democrats and 68% of Republicans feel the country is on the wrong track, and Senator Tsongas holds a 5-point lead over President Bush in a 3-way race. For the primary it shows Senator Tsongas in the lead with 37% of the vote to 30% for Governor Clinton and 15% for Governor Brown.
April 28, 1992: Senator Tsongas wins the Pennsylvania primary with 42% of the vote to 34% for Governor Clinton and 18% for Governor Brown.
April 29, 1992: Riots erupt in Los Angeles after police officers were acquitted for the beating of African-American man Rodney King. The riots lasted until May 4, resulting in 63 deaths, over 2,000 injuries and over 12,000 arrests.
May 2, 1992: President Bush responds to the ongoing Los Angeles riots, saying "we simply cannot condone violence as a way of changing the system ... Mob brutality, the total loss of respect for human life was sickeningly sad ... What we saw last night and the night before in Los Angeles is not about civil rights. It's not about the great cause of equality that all Americans must uphold. It's not a message of protest. It's been the brutality of a mob, pure and simple." Senator Tsongas condemns the violence in Los Angeles, but some criticize him for his lack of focus on the issue of poverty in his campaign.
May 5, 1992: Senator Tsongas scores a series of momentum-boosting wins, winning the Delaware caucus with 46% of the vote, a 21-point lead over uncommitted, winning Indiana by 4 points and winning North Carolina by 7 points-the latter especially surprising given his supposed weakness in the South. Governor Clinton does manage to win the Washington DC primary but by only 2 points. Meanwhile, the White House Press Secretary, Marlin Fitzwater, alleged that the War on Poverty was to blame for the Los Angeles riots, saying "many of the root problems that have resulted in inner city difficulties were started in the '60s and '70s and ... they have failed ... Now we are paying the price."
May 7, 1992: Senator Lloyd Bentsen, the 1988 Democratic vice-presidential nominee, endorses Senator Tsongas for President and says it is time for Democrats to come together and defeat President Bush. This endorsement adds to speculation that Governor Clinton will soon end his campaign for the presidency.
May 8, 1992: Governor Clinton announces he is suspending his campaign. He says that "we gave it our all" but "there is no longer a path to the nomination". After thanking all his supporters, he urges Democrats to get behind Senator Tsongas, saying that "far more unites us than divides us, and this vigorous campaign will only make us stronger and more energized to accomplish our main goal, defeating George Bush and taking back the White House." Hillary Clinton appears by his side at the speech.
May 9, 1992: Governor Brown vows to continue his campaign "to the very end", however Senator Tsongas appears to be the presumptive Democratic nominee. Senator Tsongas says that Governor Clinton had been "a formidable opponent" and said that Democrats are coming together and "we're in a great position to beat George Bush and take back the White House."

[Fuzzy Bear]

https://twitter.com/KRNV/status/1067499083156221952?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwc...

RIP

[Fuzzy Bear]

First want to say hello guys this is my first post with Atlas. An I want to throw out my prediction for what the next 4 years will entail. Trump will be a crappy (but not end of the world) president, the economy will go into a 90's like rescission due to his trade policies, there will be a major scandal involving his financial ties overseas that will result in Watergate like hearings. The backlash against him will actually result in the dems winning back congress in 2018 like they did in 2006 and do well in the governor races as well. When 2020 comes along Trump will be too stubborn to not run again despite low numbers and someone like Rand Paul will challenge him like Reagan did to Ford. On the democratic side it will be a big field that will narrow down to Julian Castro vs Elizabeth Warren and in the end Castro pulls it out on Warren due mainly to the Clinton base/establishment being afraid Elizabeth might be too leftist and will re-energizer the demoralized Trump base. However, Julian having seen Hillary's mistake with Kaine, picks Russ Feingold to get progressives and the Midwest energized for him. Castro runs a more on selling himself and his work as Mayor and the the HUD than just being anti-Trump and beats Donald flipping back FL, Penn, and Wis (thanks to Russ) as well as AZ winning 303-235.

[Fuzzy Bear]

God I went through such a weird Castro love in late 2016. Also how does my first post from three years ago count as “recent”?

Some people have early peaks.

[Fuzzy Bear]

OOF. Dianne Feinstein endorses Biden over Harris.

https://twitter.com/joegarofoli/status/1181669655389208576

[Fuzzy Bear]

Silly stupid media narratives push the idea nationalism is right-wing, when in practice nationalism easily transcends the right-left divide.

This is one of the most perceptive posts in the history of this Forum.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Sounds about right. Bush 1988 wasn’t abjectly awful, though I’d still prefer Dukakis.

It would be nice to hang the Albatross that was the 1976 election around Ford’s neck.

That being said, I’d agree with Eisenhower over Stevenson (both times).