Canadian Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 130121 times)
Holmes
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« Reply #900 on: May 29, 2011, 08:59:07 PM »

Why does everyone include Parry Sound-Muskoka in Northern Ontario? geez. It's hardly northern.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #901 on: May 29, 2011, 09:02:10 PM »

Here are the Prairie provinces

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Con 46.5%
NDP 27%
Lib 22.9%

Rural Manitoba

Con 63.7%
NDP 24%
Lib 7.4%

Saskatchewan

Rural Saskatchewan

Con 65.7%
NDP 26.7%
Lib 4.9%

Saskatoon (includes the rural portions of ridings that include the city)

Con 53.8%
NDP 37.1%
Lib 6%

Regina (includes the rural portions of ridings that include the city)

Con 47.1%
NDP 34.3%
Lib 15.8%

Southern Saskatchewan (wikipedia)

Con 55.3%
NDP 30.9%
Lib 11%

Northern Saskatchewan (wikipedia)

Con 57.6%
NDP 34.3%
Lib 5.2%

Alberta

Calgary

Con 65.9%
Lib 13.7%
NDP 12.4%

Edmonton (includes all 8 ridings that enter the city including rural portions)

Con 56.1%
NDP 25.6%
Lib 10.4%

Rural Alberta

Con 77.1%
NDP 13.9%
Lib 5.2%
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mileslunn
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« Reply #902 on: May 29, 2011, 09:05:17 PM »

Why does everyone include Parry Sound-Muskoka in Northern Ontario? geez. It's hardly northern.
  I agree its not really Northern Ontario, although I think in the Ontario re-distributions whereby they kept the 1996 ridings for Northern Ontario and use the 2003 boundaries for Southern Ontario, Parry-Sound-Muskoka was included.  Nonetheless I gave it with Parry Sound-Muskoka and without.  Certainly in term of voting patterns Parry Sound-Muskoka is more like Southern Ontario as the Tories usually win here much like Rural Southern Ontario and the NDP is quite weak unlike Northern Ontario.  I think Algonquin Park which runs directly to the East of much of the riding is usually seen as the dividing point between North and South.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #903 on: May 29, 2011, 09:19:09 PM »

Here is British Columbia

BC Interior

Con 52.3%
NDP 32.9%
Lib 6.6%

Northern BC (PGPR, CPG, and SKV)

Con 51.8%
NDP 36.1%
Lib 4.7%

Southern Interior

Con 52.4%
NDP 31.8%
Lib 7.4%

Vancouver Island

NDP 38.5%
Con 38.4%
Lib 7.9%

Greater Victoria (SGI, Vic, and ESQ-JDF)

NDP 33.7%
Con 33.4%
GRN 22.9%
Lib 9.9%

Rural Vancouver Island

Con 43.6%
NDP 43.4%
Lib 5.8%

Mainland BC

Con 47.4%
NDP 31%
Lib 14.8%

Lower Mainland

Con 45.4%
NDP 30.2%
Lib 18.2%

Greater Vancouver (includes WVSSC and PMM)

Con 43.8%
NDP 30.9%
Lib 19%

BC outside GVRD

Con 47.5%
NDP 34.2%
Lib 7.6%

Fraser Valley & Southern Lower Mainland (wikipedia and DS)

Con 53%
NDP 26.6%
Lib 14.9%

Vancouver & Northern Lower Mainland (wikipedia and DS)

Con 38.8%
NDP 33.3%
Lib 21.1%

Vancouver

NDP 33.1%
Con 31%
Lib 27.7%

GVRD Suburbs

Con 48.3%
NDP 30.2%
Lib 16%

Coastal BC (LWM + VI)

Con 43.5%
NDP 32.4%
Lib 15.5%

North Shore (WVSSC + NV)

Con 47%
Lib 26%
NDP 20%

Eastern Suburbs

Con 43.7%
NDP 42.1%
Lib 9.4%

Surrey (NND, SSWRC, SN & FPK)

Con 43.5%
NDP 30.5%
Lib 20.4%

Fraser Valley (Langley, Abbotsford, & CFC)

Con 62.3%
NDP 22.1%
Lib 10%
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #904 on: May 29, 2011, 09:55:29 PM »

Why does everyone include Parry Sound-Muskoka in Northern Ontario? geez. It's hardly northern.

To someone from Toronto, Barrie is in northern Ontario.  The Northern Ontario boundary is a bit tricky; certainly much of Parry Sound District is culturally in Northern Ontario (it is a district, after all). Also, due to this fact, the Ontario government treats the area as if it were Northern Ontario (secondary highways, local services boards, etc). Also, Most of Parry Sound District is considered as part of Northern Ontario when it comes to the Northern Ontario curling team. However, there is that traditional border of the French and Mattawa Rivers. Anyways, I have a cottage in northern Parry Sound District, so I should know Wink
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EarlAW
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« Reply #905 on: May 29, 2011, 09:57:41 PM »

Nice to see the NDP win Vancouver, but it's a shame they didn't do better on the island.
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Verily
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« Reply #906 on: May 29, 2011, 10:44:16 PM »

In large part due to the tactical voting in Saanich, although the NDP has been underperforming in rural Vancouver Island of late as well. Jean Crowder should keep watching her back; bad news for her that the CPC vote went up again without Reed Elley running this time.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #907 on: May 29, 2011, 11:34:07 PM »

In the case of Vancouver Island, I agree that strategic voting hurt them in Saanich-Gulf Islands.  However in the other two ridings they failed to win, the demographics are far less favourable than 20 years ago.  In Nanaimo-Alberni, the north side of Nanaimo is the more affluent part while the south side in Nanaimo-Cowichan is the working class part thus the split.  Parksville to Qualicum Beach is full of many seniors and rapidly growing thus the Conservative strength here.  In fact I believe Qualicum Beach has the oldest median age of any Canadian municipality.  The NDP has some strength in resource towns like Port Alberni, but their share of the population is not as large as it once was.  In the case of Vancouver Island North, if you took Comox out, the NDP would have won it in all of the last four elections.  Comox also has a large seniors population, while Courtenay, Campbell River, Port McNeil, and Port Hardy have a slightly rightward tilt, but not by much, while the rest of the riding is heavily NDP.  In fact in the 2005 and 2009 provincial election, the media mistakenly called Comox Valley for the NDP as the Comox results were slower to come in, yet the BC Liberals won both times.  Nanaimo-Cowichan I think is less vulnerable as there isn't the large seniors' population and there is still a strong union base.  If anything Saanich-Gulf Islands is probably the most favourable Conservative riding they didn't win.  While the Gulf Islands lean to the left and Saanich is a real mix, Central Saanich and North Saanich are semi-rural with a weak union base, while Sidney has a large senior's population.  Victoria is really the only Vancouver Island riding the Tories have no chance at winning.  They have some support in the more affluent Oak Bay which goes BC Liberal provincially, but get clobbered in Victoria.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #908 on: May 29, 2011, 11:54:56 PM »

Nice to see the NDP win Vancouver, but it's a shame they didn't do better on the island.
  Vancouver is sort of an odd one out.  Much like Toronto it was a three way split.  Ironically the BC Liberals finished slightly ahead in both 2005 and 2009.  The NDP strength is really along the Sky Train route excluding the RAV Line.  Vancouver Centre is the only non-NDP riding the Sky Train passes through while Newton-North Delta is the only NDP riding it doesn't pass through.  In addition the areas in non-NDP ridings for both the RAV Line and Sky Train are largely underground so otherwise the areas where the Sky Train is above ground is generally NDP territory.  I've also tried applying transit types to the GTA.  Otherwise the GO Train ridings are mostly Tory.  The subway ridings were mostly Liberal prior to this election, but now a mix.  In fact this was the first election since 1988 the Tories won any of the Subway ridings.  The Streetcar is more your left leaning ridings although St. Paul's and Toronto Centre went Liberal while Etobicoke-Lakeshore went Tory.
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« Reply #909 on: May 30, 2011, 02:55:05 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2011, 02:57:23 PM by Hatman »

2nd post election poll:

Tories: 38%
NDP: 33% (49% in QC and 32% in ON!)
Liberals: 15%
Greens: 7%
BQ: 5% (22% in QC)
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Holmes
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« Reply #910 on: May 30, 2011, 04:33:52 PM »

Cool beans. Doubt that choosing Rae as interim leader and staying in the dark "restructuring" for a few years will really get them out of the mid to high 10's.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #911 on: May 30, 2011, 05:40:03 PM »

Cool beans. Doubt that choosing Rae as interim leader and staying in the dark "restructuring" for a few years will really get them out of the mid to high 10's.

I have to say, the Liberals' strategy is baffling. It's as if they believe there is no purpose to a political party other than to campaign for elections--so they don't need a leader until the next election. It just plays into all the stereotypes about the Liberals just being a vessel for personal achievement of power. Except now they are remote from power, so they look pathetic instead.
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DL
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« Reply #912 on: May 30, 2011, 06:09:27 PM »

In the case of Vancouver Island, I agree that strategic voting hurt them in Saanich-Gulf Islands.  However in the other two ridings they failed to win, the demographics are far less favourable than 20 years ago.  In Nanaimo-Alberni, the north side of Nanaimo is the more affluent part while the south side in Nanaimo-Cowichan is the working class part thus the split.  Parksville to Qualicum Beach is full of many seniors and rapidly growing thus the Conservative strength here.  In fact I believe Qualicum Beach has the oldest median age of any Canadian municipality.  The NDP has some strength in resource towns like Port Alberni, but their share of the population is not as large as it once was.  In the case of Vancouver Island North, if you took Comox out, the NDP would have won it in all of the last four elections.  Comox also has a large seniors population, while Courtenay, Campbell River, Port McNeil, and Port Hardy have a slightly rightward tilt, but not by much, while the rest of the riding is heavily NDP.  In fact in the 2005 and 2009 provincial election, the media mistakenly called Comox Valley for the NDP as the Comox results were slower to come in, yet the BC Liberals won both times.  Nanaimo-Cowichan I think is less vulnerable as there isn't the large seniors' population and there is still a strong union base.  If anything Saanich-Gulf Islands is probably the most favourable Conservative riding they didn't win.  While the Gulf Islands lean to the left and Saanich is a real mix, Central Saanich and North Saanich are semi-rural with a weak union base, while Sidney has a large senior's population.  Victoria is really the only Vancouver Island riding the Tories have no chance at winning.  They have some support in the more affluent Oak Bay which goes BC Liberal provincially, but get clobbered in Victoria.

Keep in mind though that BC is going to gain six seats in redistribution and the ridings on Vancouver Island are all very overpopulated so there will be at least one and maybe even two new seats created there. I would not be surprised if Comox, Qualicum and Parksville and all got made into a new riding that would be safely Tory but would render the other ridings more NDP.
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Smid
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« Reply #913 on: May 30, 2011, 07:56:03 PM »

That poll has the NDP performing very strongly. I seem to recall that the Liberals spent a good deal of time in the mid-to-high teens and very little time over 30% (I could be mistaken, however). When was the last time the Canadian Official Opposition performed that well in a poll?
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #914 on: May 30, 2011, 08:22:18 PM »

The Liberals were at 32.7% in a Nanos poll as recently as March 30th. Last time they were over 33% was last May, when they polled at 33.2%.
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DL
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« Reply #915 on: May 30, 2011, 08:45:18 PM »

It is fair to say that for most of the past 5 years - the Liberals as opposition tended to be in the high-20s. The NDP seems to be in the low 30s now - and that is when the Tories may still be enjoying a bit of a honeymoon - what happens when they bring in their first really draconian budget next year?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #916 on: May 30, 2011, 09:00:39 PM »

It is fair to say that for most of the past 5 years - the Liberals as opposition tended to be in the high-20s. The NDP seems to be in the low 30s now - and that is when the Tories may still be enjoying a bit of a honeymoon - what happens when they bring in their first really draconian budget next year?

Either the Liberals have a revival, or NDP takes the lead, depending of events durng the honeymoon, I suppose.

If nothing change, I think than the NDP takes the lead, for now. Liberals seems to be on a bad way with their very long interim.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #917 on: May 30, 2011, 09:59:21 PM »

I expect the NDP will probably take the lead at some point, although the dynamics are somewhat different as the Tories had a 22 point lead in English Canada and 18 point lead in Ontario thus while the NDP could pull ahead in either it will be a lot less common than it was for the Liberals who were usually competitive in Ontario and not that much stronger in Quebec than the Tories unlike the NDP.  I should note Dion routinely pulled even or ahead right up until the election so for whatever reason it seems the Tories always poll lower in between the writ period.  Whether the NDP will swap positions with the Liberals or not remains to be seen.  Also I expect the most unpopular policies of the Tories to be in the first two years.  As for spending cuts, they will no doubt generate a lot of opposition in Quebec, but I am not sure the impact will be totally negative in Ontario.  Harris had an approval rating close to 50% in his first term and the Liberal spending cuts in the 90s proved quite popular, so a lot depends on whether people perceive them as ideological or simply to get things back on track.  If perceived as the former, it will hurt them a lot, but if the latter it may help them.  It could also hurt them in Atlantic Canada although considering how badly wacked the Liberals got in 1997 over the EI changes I suspect the Tories will be careful to ensure any cuts don't hit the region harder than others to avoid facing losing 2/3 of their seats like the Liberals did in 1997. 
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #918 on: May 31, 2011, 01:34:17 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2011, 12:03:32 AM by Smid »

Here is a map showing ridings in which the Conservative Party came either first or second.

2011





2008





2006





2004

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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #919 on: May 31, 2011, 01:36:51 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2011, 12:02:17 AM by Smid »

Here is a map showing ridings in which the Liberal Party came either first or second.

2011





2008





2006





2004

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« Reply #920 on: May 31, 2011, 01:41:32 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2011, 09:55:38 PM by Smid »

Here is a map showing ridings in which the NDP came either first or second.

2011





2008





2006





2004

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MaxQue
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« Reply #921 on: May 31, 2011, 01:44:55 AM »

Wow at the Liberal map.

They are pretty much dead outside of Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, PEI and Newfoundland.
The slope to come back will be very rough.

The NDP map is the inverse of the Liberal map, too.
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« Reply #922 on: May 31, 2011, 02:02:07 AM »

The bit I think I found most interesting was New Brunswick on the NDP map. Basically they came second in every riding held by a Conservative prior to the election. The Liberals came first or second only in the seats where they had an incumbent, which potentially doesn't bode well for their strength in the two seats they lost there. Mind you, I think a decline in the Liberal vote in seats they no longer hold is not unsurprising, it's been occurring in Vancouver and I suspect it may also begin in Toronto.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #923 on: May 31, 2011, 07:02:47 AM »

Talk about the open holes for the Liberals.  Its amazing that a party that a majority a decade ago is irrelevant in much of the country while a party that barely clung to official party status a decade ago is now competitive in much of the country and even where not competitive at least they are in second and not getting blown out of the water.  I guess that should be a lesson to all parties that you can improve if weak and if in government, don't get too arrogant or what happened to the PCs in 1993 and now the Liberals can happen to your party.
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DL
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« Reply #924 on: May 31, 2011, 02:41:23 PM »

Read "The Strange Death of Liberal England" its remarkably similar to what happened in Canada this past decade.

Interesting that when the Liberals became a distant 3rd party in the UK - the only seats they tended to hold on to were these rural Celtic fringe seats in Cornwall and the Scottish Highlands - kind of like how the Liberal party of Canada's power base is now rural Newfoundland, PEI and Cape Breton!
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