2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2 (user search)
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  2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2  (Read 84795 times)
Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
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« on: October 24, 2020, 12:13:40 PM »
Lol imagine if Biden wins Texas and loses Florida
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Ferguson97
Atlas Star
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 04:36:34 PM »
Quote from: EJ24 on October 24, 2020, 04:30:25 PM
Quote from: Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 24, 2020, 04:29:42 PM
The following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  151,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

All that suburban vote. Absolutely delicious.

Biden will win Texas. I’m calling it now.
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Ferguson97
Atlas Star
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2020, 08:35:20 PM »
Quote from: Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 24, 2020, 08:32:58 PM
I'm gonna laugh so hard if Biden flips Texas & Georgia while Trump wins Florida

Honestly, I'm starting to think this is more likely than the reverse...
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 01:53:21 PM »
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 27, 2020, 01:42:27 PM
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321155340902301697

Florida in-person EV Day 9 (2:10 PM UPDATE)

Rep 78,518  (+35,335)
Dem 43,183
NPA/Other 36,905
Total 158,606

Cumulative total

Rep 1,254,287  (+350,490)
Dem 903,797
NPA/Other 533,621
Total 2,691,705

What's the VBM total?
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Ferguson97
Atlas Star
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 05:00:51 PM »
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Ferguson97
Atlas Star
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Posts: 28,287
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P P P
« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 07:53:09 PM »
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
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P P P
« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 08:53:46 PM »
Quote from: Asta on October 27, 2020, 08:37:31 PM


Someone better at math than me explain the implications of this
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 05:00:48 PM »
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
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P P P
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2020, 02:15:31 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 29, 2020, 02:08:15 PM
Maricopa County, AZ update with 5 days to go

Reps 524,699 (37.0%)
Dems 523,106 (36.9%)
Other 369,219 (26.1%)
= 1,417,024

2016 total EV:
Reps 421,566 (41.1%)
Dems 327,546 (31.9%)
Other 276,591 (27.0%)
= 1,025,703

Am I right to assume that a portion of Biden's support would come from Republicans who haven't changed their registration?
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Ferguson97
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P P P
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2020, 05:54:33 PM »
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2020, 06:14:52 PM »
Imagine if Texas votes to the left of Michigan lol
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2020, 06:36:14 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 29, 2020, 06:34:21 PM


If this ends up being true, I might believe in karma.
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
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P P P
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 11:38:11 PM »
So according to whether Atlas is freaking out or overjoyed about early numbers from certain states, we can expect this to me the result?
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 11:50:55 PM »
Quote from: Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 29, 2020, 11:47:09 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 29, 2020, 11:38:11 PM
So according to whether Atlas is freaking out or overjoyed about early numbers from certain states, we can expect this to me the result?
(354 map snip)

Honestly, outside of Nevada flipping, that looks like a pretty reasonable map

Yeah, that was mostly because of that Twitter guy who Atlas considers to be gospel on Nevada matters.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if this was the map.
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 11:59:52 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 29, 2020, 11:58:09 PM
Quote from: Elastic Iowan Going Nuclear on Joni on October 29, 2020, 11:56:55 PM
I could see Biden winning GA before FL, but it’s very unlikely that Biden loses FL on a night when he’s winning NC and beating Trump by 8-9 points nationally. Not impossible, but people are reading way too much into early voting reports/anecdotal evidence.

Then again, any FL-related discussion/thread on here is like its own poor and very predictable melodrama.

But isn't this basically what happened in 2018?

If Biden wins NC, then he doesn't need Florida.
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2020, 02:15:42 AM »
Quote from: Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 30, 2020, 02:12:40 AM


Am I wrong or are those horrendous numbers for Republicans?
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Ferguson97
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P P P
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2020, 07:24:02 AM »
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2020, 09:34:20 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 30, 2020, 08:53:27 AM



In 1980, Reagan received 27% of Democrat's votes.

So uh, good implications for Biden here...
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
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P P P
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2020, 02:57:53 PM »
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2020, 03:16:08 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 30, 2020, 03:13:57 PM
If that graphic is accurate then Trump country is being more impacted.  However less Trump supporters are mailing in ballots.

So it might cancel out?
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2020, 08:39:31 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 30, 2020, 08:32:11 PM
Democrats are at 61.3% turnout in Florida. Tomorrow is the last day for the GOP to vote.

Why does the GOP have less days to vote?
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2020, 11:41:23 AM »
It would be truly fantastic if we won Texas and didn't even have to worry about Pennsylvania or Florida
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Ferguson97
Atlas Star
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2020, 02:31:49 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 31, 2020, 02:18:20 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2020, 02:14:33 PM
Quote from: The Mikado on October 31, 2020, 02:10:44 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2020, 02:04:11 PM
The Texas Supreme Court said this is okay and they are 100% Republican and notoriously one of the most partisan courts in the country. That should have been the end of it.

For anyone not grasping what is meant by this, the TX Supreme Court is 9-0 Republican, and has been 9-0 Republican continuously since 1999.

Plus it had the support and approval of the Republican Secretary of State.

So then the question is, what justification could Hanen use to overrule the Texas SOS and Texas SCOTUS?


They'll make up some nonsense. They don't have to make a legitimate argument, Hanen could write "I like strawberry shortcake so Harris County's curbside votes don't count" and that would be the end of it.
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Ferguson97
Atlas Star
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Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2020, 09:25:05 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 31, 2020, 09:19:08 PM
Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Oh my god can I just go into a coma until November 6th
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Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,287
United States


P P P
« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2020, 09:27:04 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 31, 2020, 09:19:08 PM
Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

also do you know who it was?
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