2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Skill and Chance]

You know what's becoming a consistent theme in this thread?  the fact that Democrats are over performing EVERYWHERE in the south.  If Biden ends up winning 2 or 3 of FL, GA, NC, TX the unspoken heroes will be Beto, Abrams etc. who registered voters and showed everyone the south was competitive, which made this happen.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised at all if Biden wins 2 of the 4 states above, which essentially gives him the election without needing PA.

Very much so, it's going to def be an interesting night tuesday to say the least

I am starting to wonder if Biden wins GA and/or NC while losing at least one of MI/WI/PA. 

[swf541]

You know what's becoming a consistent theme in this thread?  the fact that Democrats are over performing EVERYWHERE in the south.  If Biden ends up winning 2 or 3 of FL, GA, NC, TX the unspoken heroes will be Beto, Abrams etc. who registered voters and showed everyone the south was competitive, which made this happen.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised at all if Biden wins 2 of the 4 states above, which essentially gives him the election without needing PA.

Very much so, it's going to def be an interesting night tuesday to say the least

I am starting to wonder if Biden wins GA and/or NC while losing at least one of MI/WI/PA. 

I think its definitely possible tho not particularly likely

[Non Swing Voter]

As others said about FL, tomorrow's early vote is looking to be heavily Dem.  Just look at the counties voting:

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1322701755071815681

Dems will have more than a 100k edge prior to Election Day.  With NPA's I'd imagine that Biden's lead is probably closer to 200k.  And with so many votes locked in I don't think the GOP has as much opportunity as people think to make that up.

[The Mikado]

Honestly, the state I'm most surprised I'm confident about is North Carolina. I keep expecting really bad news out of NC and it just hasn't materialized.

If you asked me on Oct 1st about the "Big Six" of MI, WI, PA, FL, NC, and AZ, I'd put NC as least likely to go Dem. Now I think I'm fine moving NC up to about the middle of the pack.

[Non Swing Voter]

Honestly, the state I'm most surprised I'm confident about is North Carolina. I keep expecting really bad news out of NC and it just hasn't materialized.

If you asked me on Oct 1st about the "Big Six" of MI, WI, PA, FL, NC, and AZ, I'd put NC as least likely to go Dem. Now I think I'm fine moving NC up to about the middle of the pack.

NC does seem to be going the best of the 6 big six relative to expectations.  But I think we set out expectations low because Trump did well in 2016.  However, if you look at the underlying demographics of the state it's pretty diverse and educated and democrats had a lot of room for growth.  Mecklenburg county is only at 60% turnout and has already matched its 2016 numbers.  The dem areas are highly engaged and have experienced a lot of population growth, bad combination for the GOP. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

[Ferguson97]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Oh my god can I just go into a coma until November 6th

[Ferguson97]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

also do you know who it was?

[republican1993]

nevada is looking more interesting from a republican perspective and will look close i'm excited

[Ferguson97]

nevada is looking more interesting from a republican perspective

It's not

[It’s so Joever]

nevada is looking more interesting from a republican perspective and will look close i'm excited

[Non Swing Voter]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

also do you know who it was?

Ron Brownstein

[charcuterie]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Do we have a reason to believe said person? I don't know if I trust a random CNN contributor to be having reliable info necessarily on such a thing.

[republican1993]

nevada is looking more interesting from a republican perspective

It's not

ru expecting a ten point lead or something? it ain't happening lib the young people r voting for trump like myself!

[philly09]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Do we have a reason to believe said person? I don't know if I trust a random CNN contributor to be having reliable info necessarily on such a thing.

It was Ron Brownstein.

[charcuterie]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Do we have a reason to believe said person? I don't know if I trust a random CNN contributor to be having reliable info necessarily on such a thing.

It was Ron Brownstein.

Is he typically reliable? I don't watch much TV news.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Lief, how did you go from one of the most bullish pro-Biden posters to a mega doomer in just a couple of days?

[redjohn]

Lief, how did you go from one of the most bullish pro-Biden posters to a mega doomer in just a couple of days?

I do understand it. It's easier to prepare yourself for the worst case scenario when it's just barely possible, but it's really important that people understand that this is one poll and it doesn't mean that the same trends that happened in 2016 will occur in two days. We've had no headlines, no events that would have created this major shift out of thin air. People need to calm down and wait for polling in the next two days.

[Asta]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Public models are going to be inaccurate because it's an estimate based on demographics and primary voting history. TargetSmart is the caricature of bad modeling.

Internal numbers are probably based on tracing back voters record based on their voter's file. Nate Cohn has shown numbers like 82-18 in WI for Biden. We know those numbers are more credible than TargetSmart's that shows a single digit lead for Democrats.

Not trying to spoil the party, but I don't know if the guy on CNN is disclosing anything new.

[NOVA Green]

Montana EV Update- 10/30/20 PM:

Not tons of sex appeal on Atlas, while all of the sweaty dogs are tripping about Florida EVs, not to mention a poll over Iowa...

Still whatever... here are the latest numbers out of Montana.







A few brief observations:

1.) Montana is a Same Day REG State and now we got +6.4k New Voters to the rolls from 10/24 to 10/30.

2.) Most of these New Voters come from the largest POP centers in MT, and are likely overwhelmingly DEM PRES / SEN Voters.

3.) Montana Turnout from Overwhelmingly DEM Native American Counties is a bit lagging.

4.) Yellowstone County continues to be key for both a DEM-PRES and DEM-SEN win.

5.) Gallatin County is running a bit behind Statewide TO, although I suspect it will catch up by ED with voters dropping their ballots directly by the Courthouse.

6.) MT is still a possible DEM flip at the PRES, SEN, and REP Level, but being down 5k returned ballots in Big Horn County, and Roosevelt County being slow to vote, DEMs gotta jack up the votes from the Native American Reservations, where Native Folks are still in an open state of revolt throughout the region after the Repression against the Resistance against the XL pipeline, and although Biden is against it (unlike HRC), 1st Nations folks still skeptical about the White Mans "Promises and Treaties".

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322746219353968640

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322746219353968640

Turn out the lights, the NV party is over.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322758836999098369

[philly09]

Ohio has surpassed both Hillary and Trump's 2016 vote total. 91.2 Million votes.

[philly09]

We are now at 92 Million votes thanks to California. Nearly 67% of the 2016 electorate.