2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not encouraging
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320166639523057665
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320168019159646209

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1320167190386122754?s=21

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not encouraging
(Florida tweets)

lol right on schedule

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not encouraging
(Florida tweets)

lol right on schedule

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

The guy has been on top of this Florida stuff as good as anyone so if he is saying it’s panic time then it’s not a good sign

[Holmes]

Does anyone remember Election Day in 2017 when Virginia politicos were saying Northam was up *so much* in the early morning, and then by noon it got really close and could go any way, and everyone was freaking out?

Then Northam won by almost 10 points?

This next week is going to feel like an extended version of that freak out.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1320167190386122754?s=21

NYC in the House!!!

100k + on Day One from the City alone...

Maybe it's because of Harris County, TX but I'm not really impressed with NY's numbers given its population.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone remember Election Day in 2017 when Virginia politicos were saying Northam was up *so much* in the early morning, and then by noon it got really close and could go any way, and everyone was freaking out?

Then Northam won by almost 10 points?

This next week is going to feel like an extended version of that freak out.

As someone who drove in the rain in northern virginia to vote in 2017, I can confirm the liberal freakouts.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Does anyone remember Election Day in 2017 when Virginia politicos were saying Northam was up *so much* in the early morning, and then by noon it got really close and could go any way, and everyone was freaking out?

Then Northam won by almost 10 points?

This next week is going to feel like an extended version of that freak out.

Remember? I was there. I was there when Limoliberal had his infamous “rain in NoVa” post

[Holmes]

Does anyone remember Election Day in 2017 when Virginia politicos were saying Northam was up *so much* in the early morning, and then by noon it got really close and could go any way, and everyone was freaking out?

Then Northam won by almost 10 points?

This next week is going to feel like an extended version of that freak out.

Remember? I was there. I was there when Limoliberal had his infamous “rain in NoVa” post

Good. So no freaking out and let people vote. You don’t know who’s voting for who so having panic attacks only hurts yourself.

[Buzz]

Biden can lose Florida and still do fine, nothing to panic about.  This is like Trump losing Michigan and his supporters panicking.  It would be nice, but not crucial.

[Rep Jessica]

Not encouraging
(Florida tweets)

lol right on schedule

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

The guy has been on top of this Florida stuff as good as anyone so if he is saying it’s panic time then it’s not a good sign

It's a great sign!!! Maga!

[Non Swing Voter]

The thing I will say about freakouts is that sometimes people should pay attention.  A few people, not just me, were worried about low turnout in Philly in 2016 and a public transit strike going on there t the time.  Everyone on the board thought the idea of Pennsylvania going to Trump was ridiculous, and here we are.  

The FL thing is ridiculous though.  Everyone should just focus on the Dem turnout and not the GOP turnout.  GOP always turns out.  But Dems are turning out too and that's all they need.  I feel like we keep saying this and people keep freaking out about the horserace anyways.

[Dr. Arch]

Does anyone remember Election Day in 2017 when Virginia politicos were saying Northam was up *so much* in the early morning, and then by noon it got really close and could go any way, and everyone was freaking out?

Then Northam won by almost 10 points?

This next week is going to feel like an extended version of that freak out.

Yep

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not encouraging
(Florida tweets)

lol right on schedule

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

The guy has been on top of this Florida stuff as good as anyone so if he is saying it’s panic time then it’s not a good sign

All I'm saying that we're right on schedule for our daily Florida freakout.

It's almost not funny at this point. Almost

[emailking]

So this may be a stupid question, but I'd love if someone more familiar with election mechanics could answer... With millions of people returning their ballots well before election day, is there any actual reason to believe we won't get results on election night? Even places that cannot count until the day of, I mean that's when we normally count them anyway, right? I may be missing something about the actual ways this is run, but on paper the fears seem kind of unsubstantiated to me.

Some states are allowed to count ballots hours or days prior to polls closing

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

If I'm reading this right for the 2020 rules:

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-mail-voting-policies-in-effect-for-the-2020-election.aspx

Then basically every state allows counting of mail-ins to start on before or on election day for this election.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The thing I will say about freakouts is that sometimes people should pay attention.  A few people, not just me, were worried about low turnout in Philly in 2016 and a public transit strike going on there t the time.  Everyone on the board thought the idea of Pennsylvania going to Trump was ridiculous, and here we are.  

The FL thing is ridiculous though.  Everyone should just focus on the Dem turnout and not the GOP turnout.  GOP always turns out.  But Dems are turning out too and that's all they need.  I feel like we keep saying this and people keep freaking out about the horserace anyways.

But what if the polls are right and dem turnout crashes on ED due to Covid fears?

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, for those freaking out at FL Dem vs. GOP turnout, these are the numbers by day:

Net change (Dem minus GOP vote)

31,984
20,306
5,646
24,267
52,872
40,223
37,575
32,787
23,472
3,925
12,929
22,575
19,486
20,123
18,763
11,164
2,807
2,780
5,729
-18,094
-34,912
-37,049
-23,278

The last 4 days GOP voters have cut into the DEM lead but it's not like they're posting a huge advantage each day.

[forza nocta]

I'm not even panicking about Florida because I have it embedded in my head that it is ALWAYS titanium (slightly) tilt-R. The early vote there doesn't matter at all because Trump was gonna win it all along (by .8 or so), no matter what the polls say or what you're seeing on the ground or whatever. The sooner you other red-avatars get that through your head, the better life will be when it comes to Florida and you will never be disappointed or worry about that garbage state.

[Sbane]

Any idea of what's going on in TN? 61% of their 2016 turnout but most of it is in early voting (which I assume is skewing for the Republicans, however, TN doesn't list it's partisan divide in the page. I'm not expecting TN to flip, even if it has a reputation of being one of the most volatile states of the solid South, historically speaking.

Tennessee doesn't have party registration.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not even panicking about Florida because I have it embedded in my head that it is ALWAYS titanium (slightly) tilt-R. The early vote there doesn't matter at all because Trump was gonna win it all along (by .8 or so), no matter what the polls say or what you're seeing on the ground or whatever. The sooner you other red-avatars get that through your head, the better life will be when it comes to Florida and you will never be disappointed or worry about that garbage state.

Did I clone myself without even knowing it?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

What time are the hour de vours served?

[Gass3268]

Not encouraging
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320166639523057665
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320168019159646209

This isn’t that bad, was expecting worse.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm gonna laugh so hard if Biden flips Texas & Georgia while Trump wins Florida

[Ferguson97]

I'm gonna laugh so hard if Biden flips Texas & Georgia while Trump wins Florida

Honestly, I'm starting to think this is more likely than the reverse...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I'm gonna laugh so hard if Biden flips Texas & Georgia while Trump wins Florida

Everyone will call it a “fluke”