2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[SLA8]

Is the weekend early voting better for Dems or Reps (mostly asking for FL)? I know Sunday is slated to be better for Dems but what about Saturday?

[cwh2018]

Georgia, Thursday 5 PM Update:, 164,823 votes have been cast thus far on Thursday.

This includes 127,771 in-person votes and 37,052 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,444,185 in-person & 1,144,157 by mail, for a grand total of 3,588,342 (86.15% of 2016 total vote).

What sort of overall turnout are we looking at in Georgia after election night? how close to 5 million do you think they can get to? 
Does Georgia's early vote end on Friday?

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Thursday 5 PM Update:, 164,823 votes have been cast thus far on Thursday.

This includes 127,771 in-person votes and 37,052 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,444,185 in-person & 1,144,157 by mail, for a grand total of 3,588,342 (86.15% of 2016 total vote).

What sort of overall turnout are we looking at in Georgia after election night? how close to 5 million do you think they can get to?  
Does Georgia's early vote end on Friday?

Final day of in-person voting is Friday. I think it's almost guaranteed at this point that GA will hit 5 million votes in the end (my gut says 5.1-5.2m, which would be 68-69% VEP).

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1321941218738294785

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the right. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1321872541519093762?s=20

Which of those orange counties will start at 7AM, and which will wait until polls close? That could make a big difference on early results.

I know Philadelphia and the 4 suburban counties are starting at 7:00 AM in the morning and they are not stopping until all of the ballots are counted. Allegheny is also starting at 7:00 AM and I think they are going to count all night as well. Blair, Dauphin, Lehigh, Northampton, and York have also confirmed they are starting at 7:00 AM. Lebanon is starting only a half hour later at 7:30 AM.

Here is a spreadsheet with the information that's been made available

Given that, you could even end up with a "blue mirage" if places like the SE counties finish counting absentees by the close of polls and report them first.

Might be wishful thinking but it would be hilarious and welcomed if this all ended up in such a way that PA reports very similar to how it normally does.

[wbrocks67]

Ah, I thought there was one more Souls to the Polls on Sunday for GA. Guess tomorrow will have massive turnout.

Isn't most in person voting done in FL by Saturday? With a lot of Dem-leaning places open Sunday? If that's the case, Dems may still be up like ~100K before Sunday then, where they would likely expand their lead I would think

[Hindsight was 2020]

FLORIDA

Votes Cast:
Democratic: 3,083,486  (+169,291)
Republican: 2,914,195
NPA/Other: 1,676,716

Total: 7,674,397

Registered voters who have NOT voted yet:
NPA/Other: 2,292,887
Republican: 2,254,817 (+35,049)
Democratic: 2,219,768

Total: 6,767,472

Lining up with a lot of the polls showing that ED is going to be as lopsided as people thought

[xavier110]

Most things I see look good. But this sounds...bad

https://twitter.com/nwarikoo/status/1321848871492984836

[Bootes Void]

Most things I see look good. But this sounds...bad

https://twitter.com/nwarikoo/status/1321848871492984836

Lower than 2018 seems unlikely. How was it in 2008?

[wbrocks67]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the right. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1321872541519093762?s=20

Which of those orange counties will start at 7AM, and which will wait until polls close? That could make a big difference on early results.

I know Philadelphia and the 4 suburban counties are starting at 7:00 AM in the morning and they are not stopping until all of the ballots are counted. Allegheny is also starting at 7:00 AM and I think they are going to count all night as well. Blair, Dauphin, Lehigh, Northampton, and York have also confirmed they are starting at 7:00 AM. Lebanon is starting only a half hour later at 7:30 AM.

Here is a spreadsheet with the information that's been made available

Given that, you could even end up with a "blue mirage" if places like the SE counties finish counting absentees by the close of polls and report them first.

Might be wishful thinking but it would be hilarious and welcomed if this all ended up in such a way that PA reports very similar to how it normally does.

Yeah, all of the SEPA counties are starting and not stopping at 7am so it's quite possible that we get a lot of the good data when polls close.

[wbrocks67]

isn't turnout pretty high in Detroit already? 50% seems really low

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

45 minutes before polls close and Williamson County, TX is at around 10,200 in-person votes. Another 260 votes and this will be their best voting day since Friday (Even before we get updated mail totals)

[wbrocks67]

45 minutes before polls close and Williamson County, TX is at around 10,200 in-person votes. Another 260 votes and this will be their best voting day since Friday (Even before we get updated mail totals)

It seems likely TX will pass 9 million with tomorrows update?

[Ferguson97]

Imagine if Texas votes to the left of Michigan lol

[ExSky]

Imagine if Texas votes to the left of Michigan lol

Don’t think that’s gonna happen. If it did my jaw might actually break off my face. It would be a seismic shift in American politics.

[philly09]

isn't turnout pretty high in Detroit already? 50% seems really low

MI is currently 50.3% of the 2016 total. Wayne County is 74.4% in for Mail ballots.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Broward has surpassed 700,000 votes. 83% of the 2016 total. Dems are 58.3% statewide.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321935827274993671

Excellent! They actually figured out how to read their ballots this year, it seems.

[forza nocta]

Did Wayne County seriously have  higher turnout in 2018 than in 2016 and 2012? That doesn’t sound right.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Did Wayne County seriously have 5% higher turnout in 2018 than in 2016? That doesn’t sound right.

Blame Beto, he sent midterm turnout there sky-high.

[Tintrlvr]

Did Wayne County seriously have  higher turnout in 2018 than in 2016 and 2012? That doesn’t sound right.

Not even close. There were 658k votes for Senate in Wayne in 2018 vs. 783k votes for President in Wayne in 2016 (and 818k in 2012). Hard to imagine Detroit went the opposite direction of the rest of Wayne County by such an extreme degree. I assume they just have bad data.

[philly09]

Did Wayne County seriously have 5% higher turnout in 2018 than in 2016? That doesn’t sound right.

Blame Beto, he sent midterm turnout there sky-high.

We're talking MI, not TX.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1321950643649732609

[Non Swing Voter]

Detroit turnout will be lower than 2018?  that sounds absurd.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1321950643649732609

If this ends up being true, I might believe in karma.

[philly09]

Detroit turnout will be lower than 2018?  that sounds absurd.

For all we know, they might be cannabilizing the vote.