2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Florida Man for Crime]

Travis County just hit 550,000 with 1.5 more hours of early voting left. Looking forward to updates from other counties but I’m particularly proud of my new home. Shattering turnout expectations and breaking records with each new vote cast.

wow, it was 468,000 in 2016!

If you apply the margins from the last election that should net Biden at least an additional 40k votes.

Except Biden will definitely get a higher percentage margin than Clinton got. It will be more similar to the Beto-Cruz margin, and likely higher than the Beto-Cruz margin.

Realistically, if you take Harris and Travis counties alone, between the two of them their additional turnout/Dem support are very likely to sufficient on their own to erase the entire statewide 2018 Cruz margin of victory.

However, that does not necessarily guarantee the state to Biden because it is plausible that Trump will gain enough offsetting votes elsewhere (with turnout in rural and suburban/exurban safe Republican counties likely being higher than in 2018, and giving Trump a chance to get better margins out of some of those than Cruz could get).

But I really don't see any realistic argument at this point for Texas being anything less than a tossup for Biden.


- edit - I should really amend this. I said that Harris + Travis alone are "very likely" to be sufficient on their own to erase the entire 2018 Cruz margin of victory. But really that is just excessive caution talking. It is really hard to see how that could possibly not be the case. Not so much "very likely" as "near certainty."

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1322342655939018752

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322340246357450754

[Rep Jessica]

FLORIDA


8,223,936 votes cast

Democratic: 3,252,647 (39.6%)
Republican: 3,138,373 (38.2%)
NPA/Other: 1,832,916 (22.2%)

Dem margin decreases to 114,274

~395,500 ballots were processed today

[Rep Jessica]

Vote-By-Mail
Democratic: 2,033,800  (+641,787)
Republican: 1,392,013
NPA/Other: 1,023,952
Total: 4,449,765

In-Person EV
Republican: 1,746,360  (+527,513)
Democratic: 1,218,847
NPA/Other: 808,964
Total: 3,774,171

Turnout at 57% statewide -->

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322340246357450754

John Cornyn is gonna be fine. All of the Dallas, Houston, and Fort Worth suburbanites will come out in hordes to vote for Joe Biden for President and Republican for all other elected positions.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1322342655939018752

Other states need to do the same.

[philly09]

Democrats are at 61.3% turnout in Florida. Tomorrow is the last day for the GOP to vote.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1322342655939018752

King sh**t

[Ferguson97]

Democrats are at 61.3% turnout in Florida. Tomorrow is the last day for the GOP to vote.

Why does the GOP have less days to vote?

[dspNY]

Democrats are at 61.3% turnout in Florida. Tomorrow is the last day for the GOP to vote.

Why does the GOP have less days to vote?

It's obviously not true that the Republicans have only one more day to vote.

I think he means the smaller, mostly Republican counties in FL have one more day of early voting (Saturday), and the larger, mostly Democratic and bluish-purple counties in FL keep their polls open on the final Sunday before the election. He's saying the Republicans have one more day to chip into the Democratic early vote lead, then the Democratic lead will get larger on the final Sunday (souls to the polls) and Monday (more Democrats mail in their ballots)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats are at 61.3% turnout in Florida. Tomorrow is the last day for the GOP to vote.

Why does the GOP have less days to vote?

It's by county. Some (more GOP ones) have shorter early voting periods.  It's not on a per-voter party preference.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322340246357450754

John Cornyn is gonna be fine. All of the Dallas, Houston, and Fort Worth suburbanites will come out in hordes to vote for Joe Biden for President and Republican for all other elected positions.

The overwhelming majority of Biden voters (of all demographic persuasions) in Texas will be Hegar voters as well. Since the state is going to be close, we shouldn't be that surprised if it splits outcomes but if it does it won't be because of some huge population of Romney-Clinton-Biden/Cornyn voters.

[philly09]

Democrats are at 61.3% turnout in Florida. Tomorrow is the last day for the GOP to vote.

Why does the GOP have less days to vote?

It's obviously not true that the Republicans have only one more day to vote.

I think he means the smaller, mostly Republican counties in FL have one more day of early voting (Saturday), and the larger, mostly Democratic and bluish-purple counties in FL keep their polls open on the final Sunday before the election. He's saying the Republicans have one more day to chip into the Democratic early vote lead, then the Democratic lead will get larger on the final Sunday (souls to the polls) and Monday (more Democrats mail in their ballots)

Exactly. And looking at the data, the GOP are not letting the margins in their counties.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1322342655939018752

This is a very good start.  Next step is to lock up DeJoy. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Dems at 61.3% turnout and 114k more votes than GOP.

It doesn't look like Republicans are going to catch up by Election Day at this rate. 

I wonder how many absentee ballots are in that Miami Dade post office right now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1322342655939018752

This is a very good start.  Next step is to lock up DeJoy. 

Some state Attorney General needs to prepare charges against him in case Trump pardons him in the lame duck.

[republican1993]

Florida Dems at 61.3% turnout and 114k more votes than GOP.

It doesn't look like Republicans are going to catch up by Election Day at this rate. 

I wonder how many absentee ballots are in that Miami Dade post office right now.

i don't think anyone was expecting them to overtake the dems but see how close they get by election day to overtake them on the day of the election. Repbs have gotten a lot closer than i expected.

[libertpaulian]

EL PASO!

https://twitter.com/BobMooreNews/status/1322352621957664769

So, if I'm correct, that means all of the major urban and suburban counties of Texas have now surpassed their entire 2016 turnout.

Texas just might actually do it.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1322342655939018752

This is a very good start.  Next step is to lock up DeJoy. 

Some state Attorney General needs to prepare charges against him in case Trump pardons him in the lame duck.

This is why the margin matters.  I think if it's a landslide there's going to be a lot of weight behind prosecuting the criminals from the Trump administration, Trump included. 

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Final Friday Update: 256,924 votes were cast on Friday. This was of course the highest turnout day during the in-person voting period, which is now over.

This includes 213,027 in-person votes and 43,897 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,682,162 in-person & 1,194,040 by mail, for a grand total of 3,876,202 (93.06% of 2016 total vote).

[walleye26]

Harris County TX updated....90K today for a total of 1.435 million, and its not even Election Day.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

[philly09]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.