2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

Very important piece of information from Florida (changes since September):

In person on Election Day: 17% (-16)
In person at an early voting location: 44% (+19)
By mail ballot: 37% (+/-)

but the very smart politics knowers of Atlas told me that millions of GOP voters would swarm the polls on election day, dwarfing Dem turnout

It's clear that Republicans are the ones cannibalizing Election Day votes now.  They can't depend on a massive red wave on Election Day.  I think Biden has the advantage in Florida.

Dem turnout now = 57%!

To most rational people this was obvious. But it was fun for some to pretend it wasn’t the case for a few days as a coping mechanism.

Never understood how Republicans were cheering the fact that they were "only" 200k down in a battleground state when it's clear that the vast majority of the state was voting early.  We knew all along that Republicans were going to close the gap at some point but that's likely not good enough given where NPA's are going.  Republicans are clearly underperforming their turnout numbers relatively to Democrats.

[mijan]

Iowa  early voting stats has been updated .
851103 people have voted so far.

54.35% of 2016 turnout

966300 people have requested for early ballots .
61.70% of 2016 turnout

36k more people voted so today

GOP reduced their deficits by 2k ,entirely from IA 4

Dems 407668
GOP 276188
Dems + 131480


IA 1 D + 46313
IA 2 D+ 46457
IA 3 D+ 45481
IA 4 R+6771

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Very important piece of information from Florida (changes since September):

In person on Election Day: 17% (-16)
In person at an early voting location: 44% (+19)
By mail ballot: 37% (+/-)

but the very smart politics knowers of Atlas told me that millions of GOP voters would swarm the polls on election day, dwarfing Dem turnout

It's clear that Republicans are the ones cannibalizing Election Day votes now.  They can't depend on a massive red wave on Election Day.  I think Biden has the advantage in Florida.

Dem turnout now = 57%!

To most rational people this was obvious. But it was fun for some to pretend it wasn’t the case for a few days as a coping mechanism.

Never understood how Republicans were cheering the fact that they were "only" 200k down in a battleground state when it's clear that the vast majority of the state was voting early.  We knew all along that Republicans were going to close the gap at some point but that's likely not good enough given where NPA's are going.  Republicans are clearly underperforming their turnout numbers relatively to Democrats.

I'm not speaking one way or the other about early voting, but there does seem to be this sense of "no matter how big the Democrats' lead is, there's an endless pool of energized Republican voters ready to beat it."  And that may still happen -- it's not Tuesday yet.  But I'd be careful about assuming things in the opposite direction.  

[Non Swing Voter]

Very important piece of information from Florida (changes since September):

In person on Election Day: 17% (-16)
In person at an early voting location: 44% (+19)
By mail ballot: 37% (+/-)

but the very smart politics knowers of Atlas told me that millions of GOP voters would swarm the polls on election day, dwarfing Dem turnout

It's clear that Republicans are the ones cannibalizing Election Day votes now.  They can't depend on a massive red wave on Election Day.  I think Biden has the advantage in Florida.

Dem turnout now = 57%!

To most rational people this was obvious. But it was fun for some to pretend it wasn’t the case for a few days as a coping mechanism.

Never understood how Republicans were cheering the fact that they were "only" 200k down in a battleground state when it's clear that the vast majority of the state was voting early.  We knew all along that Republicans were going to close the gap at some point but that's likely not good enough given where NPA's are going.  Republicans are clearly underperforming their turnout numbers relatively to Democrats.

I'm not speaking one way or the other about early voting, but there does seem to be this sense of "no matter how big the Democrats' lead is, there's an endless pool of energized Republican voters ready to beat it."  And that may still happen -- it's not Tuesday yet.  But I'd be careful about assuming things in the opposite direction.  

I'd still rather have all those votes locked in.  They are basically counting on some unknowns.  But the biggest thing for me is that Democrats probably don't even need to match Republican turnout to win, they just need to keep it close.  Given the demographics of independents there it seems highly implausible that Trump wins them.  So when you combine the polls with the early vote it doesn't guarantee a Biden win but it looks good, thus I don't see the overconfidence of Trump supporters here with respect to the voting numbers.

[Non Swing Voter]

over 80 million have voted.  I bet when you consider ballots in the mail, votes that haven't been processed, etc. the real number is more like 90 million.

[wbrocks67]

Reps have quite a bit of ground to make up in IA. Just purely D/R, Ds have a +131K advantage with 93% and 91% of ballots returned.

[Non Swing Voter]

Reps have quite a bit of ground to make up in IA. Just purely D/R, Ds have a +131K advantage with 93% and 91% of ballots returned.

Don't Dems usually have a ballot lead there though?  It might just be a bit turbocharged because of the pandemic.

[mijan]

Reps have quite a bit of ground to make up in IA. Just purely D/R, Ds have a +131K advantage with 93% and 91% of ballots returned.

Don't Dems usually have a ballot lead there though?  It might just be a bit turbocharged because of the pandemic.

In 2016 Dems early vote advantage was 42k, 68k in 2012, 40 k in 2018.

IA early voting is already about 55% of 2016 total turnout.

[wbrocks67]

Maricopa County, AZ update with 5 days to go

Reps 524,699 (37.0%)
Dems 523,106 (36.9%)
Other 369,219 (26.1%)
= 1,417,024

2016 total EV:
Reps 421,566 (41.1%)
Dems 327,546 (31.9%)
Other 276,591 (27.0%)
= 1,025,703

[Ferguson97]

Maricopa County, AZ update with 5 days to go

Reps 524,699 (37.0%)
Dems 523,106 (36.9%)
Other 369,219 (26.1%)
= 1,417,024

2016 total EV:
Reps 421,566 (41.1%)
Dems 327,546 (31.9%)
Other 276,591 (27.0%)
= 1,025,703

Am I right to assume that a portion of Biden's support would come from Republicans who haven't changed their registration?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Maricopa County, AZ update with 5 days to go

Reps 524,699 (37.0%)
Dems 523,106 (36.9%)
Other 369,219 (26.1%)
= 1,417,024

2016 total EV:
Reps 421,566 (41.1%)
Dems 327,546 (31.9%)
Other 276,591 (27.0%)
= 1,025,703

Am I right to assume that a portion of Biden's support would come from Republicans who haven't changed their registration?

Seems quite likely.

I think a big mistake people make is equating partisan registration with partisan identification.  In polling, you'll typically see a candidate win about 90% of their party, but their actual partisan registration is a lagging indicator, as they just may not have changed it yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like the days of Florida beating Texas in total vote count are over

Aren't there 7 million more people in Texas? jeez what's the turnout in elections there? 40%?

A significant chunk of those in Texas are undocumented and the Rio Grande Valley has always had atrocious turnout. Texas would basically be a Safe D state now with its demographics if it had normal turnout, it's one of only three majority non-white states (along with California and Hawaii.)

[ExSky]

Looks like the days of Florida beating Texas in total vote count are over

Aren't there 7 million more people in Texas? jeez what's the turnout in elections there? 40%?

Hey I didn’t say it out of celebration LoL. More out of relief. But yes turnout is putrid primarily due to low Hispanic turnout (Read: suppression)

[Gass3268]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the right. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1321872541519093762?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the left. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1321872541519093762?s=20

That's good.  Even if they don't count them all, because it's disproportionately blue counties counting earlier that will probably offset some of the red mirage on election night.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321862566063140865

[charcuterie]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the left. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

This really is wonderful news   I'm cautiously optimistic that the anticipated "red mirage" will only last into sometime Wednesday and that Michigan and Pennsylvania can be called within 24-48 hours (based on what I've read from NYT about Minnesota and Wisconsin, I am expected election night or Wednesday calls there).

[exopolitician]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321862566063140865

He's sweatin!

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321889961587560448?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321889961587560448?s=20

Looks just like the NYT/Seina poll.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321862566063140865

LOL what a loser.

[Gass3268]

Early vote will be open in Harris County until 7 PM tomorrow for 8 locations.

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1321901791018127361?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321862566063140865

He's sounding real April 1945i-sh right now.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321862566063140865

Us Dems are sneaky bastards, y'know: trying to steal the election by ... *checks notes* ... having all the votes counted?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321889961587560448?s=20

LOL mad people were bedwetting over this guy yesterday.