Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[2016]

Do we know if the early satellite locations will report their results when they are done or will they wait until the traditional caucuses start in order to prevent influencing the outcome?

I seriously doubt any of the satellite caucus results gets reported until after 8pm ET tonight.

Meanwhile here is the ABC News Results Page for Iowa:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-iowa-caucus-election-results/story?id=68333529

CNN will start Special Iowa Caucus Coverage at 4pm ET
FOX NEWS will start at 6pm ET as well as MSNBC

NBC News will have a Live Stream starting at 8pm ET for those who can't watch on TV.

[2016]

NBC's Mark Murray in a Tweet an Hour ago said if Biden finishes fourth it's OVER for him, if he wins he might glide to the Nomination.
What would happen in between? I don't know!
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1224329644339531776

[2016]

A Klobsurge at Biden's expense in Iowa is great news for Sanders. But if it allows Klobuchar to stay in until Super Tuesday and win Minnesota over Sanders, that might be a net negative for him.

New York Times Iowa Field Reporter Reid Epstein says Caucus Turnout will by all measure eclipse the 240K they had in 2008. If that is even remotely true that's great News for Sanders.

[2016]

We have a much clearer Picture of things after the Initial Entrance Poll is released. If Biden isn't within strinking Distance of Sanders that spells trouble.

[2016]

Its looking as though Biden is not going to have a good night. Are you getting that feeling?

Too soon too tell. Wait for that Entrance Poll.

That being said the Biden Camp was banking at a Turnout similar to 170K which we had in 2016. A lower Turnout favours Biden.
It looks like it will be well over 200K and may very well eclipse 2008 when they had 240K.

Turnout is definitly a concern for Biden methinks.

[2016]

59 % per NBC Entrance Poll Support Medicare for all = good for Sanders and Warren.

[2016]

Klobuchar Campaign says that they're close to Biden so Uncle Jo is either 4th or 5th. That's a big Disappointment.

[2016]

I think Biden is done. He ain't going to win IA, he won't New Hampshire and Nevada as well. They're in huge Trouble.

If he comes indeed 4th or 5th you do wonder if that whole Hunter Biden/Burisma thing in the Impeachment Trail had a lingering effect of his Campaign.

[2016]

Any news about when the final 29% of the vote, or parts thereof, is going to be released?

Sometime this Afternoon I would guess. The Question is: Will it come before or after Trumps Aquittal.

[2016]

With 29% outstanding for reporting, Sanders still has a decent shot to win overall?

There is a very low chance, but there are still quite some votes left in urban areas. Too bad the Iowa dems haven't uttered a single word about when to expect the final results. I'm feeling completely burned out, at this point.

Sanders is running even with Buttigieg in most of the urban areas so I doubt Bernie is going to catch up to Pete.
By tonight we will probably know who won Iowa. Once the IADP releases their next batch of Results they will probably have counted between 85-90 of Precincts.

[2016]

I have to say this, how can it take 2 days to count 180,000 votes, its not like 180 million votes have to be counted manually, how can it take 2 days to count just 180,000 votes, you can count that many votes with a few volunteers in a day.

Because of the Coding Error in the App the IADP in conjunction with the DNC Helpers have to collect all these Preference Cards.

[2016]

Any word yet on when we get more votes? These numbers are making me tense.

Maybe around Midnight. Maybe! That's not a guarantee though!

[2016]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1225219245610610689

Seems like hot air to me considering the remaining vote appears to be more favorable to Buttigieg

Oh great, Sanders math is back.

And then when he doesn't, it's rigged.

Not entirely true that the remaining Vote is more favorable to Buttigieg. If you you purely by IADP Standards here are the outstanding Precincts:
18 in Polk
10 in Story
11 in Woodbury
13 in Scott
among others.

So, yes I'd give both Popular Vote Counts to Sanders.

[2016]

92 % is now in and Sanders is now within a Point of Buttigieg

Buttigieg 26.5
Sanders 25.6
Warren 18.2
Biden 15.9
Klobuchar 12.1

[2016]

Most of the recent vote dump seems to be from satellite caucuses

Most yes but not all. If you go by the CNN Results two Satellite Caucuses have no votes at all.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa

[2016]

Didn't Buttigeg do well with rural whites as well, of the ones that turned out at leasst?

Rurals were more a mix of Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar.   Buttigieg did good in the northeast rurals though.

The Des Moines suburbs were the key to Buttigieg's win.

He hasn't won just yet. How embarrassing would it be for Buttigieg waking up tomorrow and being behind.

[2016]

I'm surprised networks aren't calling Iowa for Pete if his delegate lead is as solid as NY Times says.

They're not calling it because because of the Satellite Caucuses. That was the Wild Card in this. Even for the reliable New York Times it's difficult to project that. It throws in a wrinkle for everyone's estimate.

[2016]

Those satellite caucuses are coming in quite strong for Bernie.

Probably Pete just wins by 1-3 delegate equivalents in the end.

He still overperformed the polls by about 4% in the initial vote count though.

He seems also on good footing for NH, with the new tracking polls out.

PETEMENTUM !

If Sanders is within 10 Delegates before the remaining two Satellites report he's gonna snatch this away from Pete.

[2016]

Still can’t believe how much Biden collapsed by.

He's collapsing in New Hampshire as well, might not get 15 % there. Maybe two-person Race after New Hampshire.

[2016]

Everyone is kind of being hard to the Sanders Campaign when they put out that Memo that they still can win this. Looks like that wasn't so far fetched at all.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1225288440058507265?s=20

I'm going to guess the result is better than CD-04 for Sanders, but not as good as CD-02. There are only 13 sites in CD-01, so not as big as CD-03.

He doesn't need a lot now to leapfrog Buttigieg.

[2016]

Anyone know when the remaining 3% is coming in?

In the next 2-3 Hours I think.

[2016]

One thing we shouldn't all underestimate:

From the New Hampshire Trackers that we have Buttigieg has been gaining on Sanders since the first Iowa Results were announced Tuesday Late Afternoon.

If Sanders ends up being declared the Winner at some Point today it stops Pete's Mojo and keeps Bernie ahead in NH.

[2016]

If Klobuchar gets a Pledged Delegate out of Iowa it would mean Qualification for the NBC/MSNBC Debate in Las Vegas Nevada later this month.

[2016]

So with the Perez tweet, it looks like we really won't get the Iowa results until after NH!

I don't get it! Why not show us the Initial Results with 100 % first and then do a recanvass.