Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Skill and Chance]

Those satellite caucuses are coming in quite strong for Bernie.

Probably Pete just wins by 1-3 delegate equivalents in the end.

He still overperformed the polls by about 4% in the initial vote count though.

He seems also on good footing for NH, with the new tracking polls out.

PETEMENTUM !

If Sanders is within 10 Delegates before the remaining two Satellites report he's gonna snatch this away from Pete.

Careful, I would expect Pete to do better in the 2 outstanding CDs, at least relatively speaking  The Bernie landslide counties are heavily in CD-04 and CD-02.  CD-01 does have Black Hawk, but it also has the Pete landslide counties in the NE.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It's absolutely staggering that after all of this nonsense, the Iowa Democrats released fraudulent results.

Where is Iowa's own Baghdad Bob from yesterday's press conference, with his promises of data security and quality assurance? That jackass belongs back out in front of the media, and the campaigns. He needs to answer for this.

I'm not making any assumptions about how it happened, or why it disadvantaged Sanders, because it doesn't matter. They have no credibility under any conceivable set of circumstances or motivations.

Is this at all unusual?   Seems like this is the same as what happens in some county in almost every election.   In the 2016 Virginia GOP primary, a Kasich precinct in Norfolk was for a while reported as having been won by Santorum.

[Oryxslayer]

With the NYT map we can see generally what is is left. Here's a map of Polk, with red circles around precincts expected to be better for Sanders, blue for Pete, purple for closer precincts likely to be a wash.

[RI]

It's absolutely staggering that after all of this nonsense, the Iowa Democrats released fraudulent results.

Where is Iowa's own Baghdad Bob from yesterday's press conference, with his promises of data security and quality assurance? That jackass belongs back out in front of the media, and the campaigns. He needs to answer for this.

I'm not making any assumptions about how it happened, or why it disadvantaged Sanders, because it doesn't matter. They have no credibility under any conceivable set of circumstances or motivations.

Is this at all unusual?   Seems like this is the same as what happens in some county in almost every election.   In the 2016 Virginia GOP primary, a Kasich precinct in Norfolk was for a while reported as having been won by Santorum.

Yes, these types of errors are not uncommon in election results, but you'd think given the hyper-focus on Iowa that the IDP would be more cautious about releasing results which didn't pass the most basic smell test. It's like they didn't review what they were about the publish at all.

[Skill and Chance]

With the NYT map we can see generally what is is left. Here's a map of Polk, with red circles around precincts expected to be better for Sanders, blue for Pete, purple for closer precincts likely to be a wash.

OK, if Pete is favored in 4 of the remaining Polk precincts with Sanders only clearly favored in 2, he should hold on.

[Boomerberg2020]

Still can’t believe how much Biden collapsed by.

[2016]

Still can’t believe how much Biden collapsed by.

He's collapsing in New Hampshire as well, might not get 15 % there. Maybe two-person Race after New Hampshire.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1225272553255645184?s=20

If this is a true report, it mimics some of the dirty tricks of the Nixon campaign back in the '60s where their supporters would phone bomb the lines of opponents in an attempt to jam the phones so that their guy would win.

Don't have an exact source immediately available on hand, but it was a tactic that I recall reading about some time back, as one of many "Tricky Dick's" techniques that his supporters would utilize....

Here are non-phone related dirty tricks of the Nixon Campaigns over the Years....

https://www.nytimes.com/1973/07/22/archives/dirty-tricks.html

[Matty]

If biden falls to 4th or even 5th in NH, not even a SC win would save him.

[Gass3268]

If only NYT would update their precinct maps on time.

Give them a break. Matching tabular data into GIS is a pain, and I'm speaking from experience.

My apologies to NYT.

OK now I'm wondering what's taking them so long to update. They did so much more quickly the other times. I hope they didn't just go to bed...

Looks like it's updated now.

The forecast still isn't.

Nate Cohen might have gone to bed.

[NOVA Green]

After the update, they are still getting Des Moines-14 wrong. I wonder how many others are misreported. With the SDEs this close, it could decide the winner.

Source???

[Ljube]

If biden falls to 4th or even 5th in NH, not even a SC win would save him.

Will he then have a SC win?

[Matty]

If biden falls to 4th or even 5th in NH, not even a SC win would save him.

Will he then have a SC win?

I think So

I don’t think the SC dem electorate gives a crap about the nh and Iowa results

[Xing]

Why can’t Sanders win in a squeaker for a change? Given what’s still out, and if we’re still missing satellites, this could end up as close as 2016...

[Oryxslayer]

82 precincts out 47 are traditional ones, 35 are satellite.


Top 25 traditional

-8 are in Polk, see my previous map.
-1 is in Linn: Cedar Rapids 28. This is in a region that Sanders won,but Buttigeig and Warren were in 2nd/3rd, and hot on Sanders heels.
-1 is in Johnson: Graham Township. Warren should win.
-4 are in Scott. D52 is in inner Davenport and Sanders will sweep when compared to Pete. Hickory grove township should be the opposite. The remaining two are in West Davenport where Sanders and Pete are close, aka a wash in SDEs.
-2 are in Black Hawk. One is inside waterloo city and should give Sanders first position. One is outside the city and Biden won it's neighbors, with no clear order to other candidates.
-2 are in Story, but both are outside of Ames and in the suburbs/rurals. These were better for Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
-2 are  in Pottawattamie. One of these is in Carter Bluff, a Geographic abnormality in Iowa. The other carter bluff precinct had Biden lead ahead of Sanders, but neighboring precincts in Council Bluffs had Sanders lead. The other is more rural and should have Pete lead.
-3 are in Woodbury, and all three are in Sioux City. One is in central city and will give sanders a high net over Pete, the other two will likely be more mixed washes.
-2 are  in suburban Warren. These will be strong Buttigein areas.
-1 is in Muscatine: Muscatine 08. Should be for sanders.

[Gass3268]

CD #3 satellite dropped

Buttigieg SDE lead is down to 4.

[n1240]

New update decrease SDE lead to 3.427, CD1 satellites still outstanding

[RI]

If CD1 is like CD3, Bernie likely wins.

[Xing]

WUT

[Adam Griffin]

[Diabolical Materialism]

I feel like the IDP has been edging me for the past two days. And boys I'm ready to bust.

[NOVA Green]

82 precincts out 47 are traditional ones, 35 are satellite.


Top 25 traditional

-8 are in Polk, see my previous map.
-1 is in Linn: Cedar Rapids 28. This is in a region that Sanders won,but Buttigeig and Warren were in 2nd/3rd, and hot on Sanders heels.
-1 is in Johnson: Graham Township. Warren should win.
-4 are in Scott. D52 is in inner Davenport and Sanders will sweep when compared to Pete. Hickory grove township should be the opposite. The remaining two are in West Davenport where Sanders and Pete are close, aka a wash in SDEs.
-2 are in Black Hawk. One is inside waterloo city and should give Sanders first position. One is outside the city and Biden won it's neighbors, with no clear order to other candidates.
-2 are in Story, but both are outside of Ames and in the suburbs/rurals. These were better for Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
-2 are  in Pottawattamie. One of these is in Carter Bluff, a Geographic abnormality in Iowa. The other carter bluff precinct had Biden lead ahead of Sanders, but neighboring precincts in Council Bluffs had Sanders lead. The other is more rural and should have Pete lead.
-3 are in Woodbury, and all three are in Sioux City. One is in central city and will give sanders a high net over Pete, the other two will likely be more mixed washes.
-2 are  in suburban Warren. These will be strong Buttigein areas.
-1 is in Muscatine: Muscatine 08. Should be for sanders.

Tracking you buddy... this is the route I was going down earlier when I followed my natural Atlas instinct of chasing precincts while others are wrangling about???....

Like the way you break it out and ran the numbers so quickly....

NYT must have been reading my post earlier on Polk County precincts...

Any idea on the other (22) traditionals, since by the time I've posted this you are already on top of the game???...

[Oryxslayer]

NYT expects Pete to get 7 SDEs out of the remaining stuff on the map. Bernie therefore should hope to net 10+ from CD1 for a lead.

[OBD]

Dang it.

But again, no one's really going to notice this outside of here, so there won't be a huge effect on future primaries.

[Non Swing Voter]

People should wait until a state with significant non-white voters votes before writing Biden off.  A couple small republican states where the candidates can spend a lot of time is not representative of the entire democratic primary electorate and normal rules like incumbency, momentum, etc. don't apply as much anymore.