Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[2016]

Most of the recent vote dump seems to be from satellite caucuses

Most yes but not all. If you go by the CNN Results two Satellite Caucuses have no votes at all.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa

[Minnesota Mike]

DMR has 16 of 17 Sat Caucus in in CD-02 (U of Iowa) and 9 of 11 Sat Caucuses in CD-04  (IA State). Nothing from other CD's. All of out state Sat Caucuses in. Snow Birds love Amy, hate Bernie.

[The Free North]

Some elements of Sanders twitter have turned incredibly toxic and people are forgetting how basic math works.

[Nyvin]

Didn't Buttigeg do well with rural whites as well, of the ones that turned out at leasst?

Rurals were more a mix of Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar.   Buttigieg did good in the northeast rurals though.

The Des Moines suburbs were the key to Buttigieg's win.

[2016]

Didn't Buttigeg do well with rural whites as well, of the ones that turned out at leasst?

Rurals were more a mix of Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar.   Buttigieg did good in the northeast rurals though.

The Des Moines suburbs were the key to Buttigieg's win.

He hasn't won just yet. How embarrassing would it be for Buttigieg waking up tomorrow and being behind.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's what this new batch looks like.

Final vote:
Bernie 26.6%
Pete 23.1%
Warren 18.9%
Biden 13.3%
Klob 14.2%
Yang 2.4%

SDE:
Bernie 29.8%
Pete 23.5%
Warren 16.3%
Biden 15.2%
Klob 12.7%
Yang 2.2%

So a good batch for Bernie (marginally so in votes, significantly so in SDE) as well as Klobuchar and Yang. A bad one for Pete, and a meh one for Biden and Warren. Not surprised that satellite caucuses weighed heavily in it.

[Sbane]

Looking at what data we have available right now, one thing stands out very clear. Buttigieg was the candidate of the suburbs.



It is most visible in the near Des Moines suburbs in Polk, pictured above. It can also be seen in the rest of the state, it's just less visible because Iowa isn't really a suburban state. I'm not going to argue in favor of him winning overall through this route, but I think those suggesting Buttigieg tapers off after New Hampshire might want to look at this dynamic. If Buttigeig is the candidate preferred by those educated suburban voters that gave the dems the House, than he has plenty of potential targets  on the horizon. However, I am not going to push this point beyond the data, since I do not wish to make an argument in favor of, or opposition to certain candidates. Just look for this next week in NH, I suspect Pete's best towns will be clustered along the Massachusetts border.

He's the Marco Rubio of 2020. He will likely get some more decent performances, especially if he can somehow win NH. He will still have trouble getting the Democratic base to back him. Bernie has the base with the exception of non-immigrant African Americans.

[Annatar]

It's virtually assured now that 2020 turnout will surpass 2016 turnout, assuming the remaining precincts are of the same size we will see 179,000 votes vs 171,500 in 2016 or a 4.2% increase roughly, the distribution is uneven with turnout tending to exceed 2016 in the bigger counties and generally being lower in the smaller ones.

[Adam Griffin]

[redjohn]

I'm surprised networks aren't calling Iowa for Pete if his delegate lead is as solid as NY Times says.

[NOVA Green]

Steve Kornacki on MSBNC just reporting that Pete got 0 SDEs from satellites in CD-02 and CD-4....

Depending upon Turnout and results from SATs in CD-01 and CD-03 (and how the other two sates worked) Bernie could potentially be picking up an additional 12-24 SDEs from those two districts....

Jump Ball anyone???

[Matty]

The turnout decline in some of these rural areas is striking.

[2016]

I'm surprised networks aren't calling Iowa for Pete if his delegate lead is as solid as NY Times says.

They're not calling it because because of the Satellite Caucuses. That was the Wild Card in this. Even for the reliable New York Times it's difficult to project that. It throws in a wrinkle for everyone's estimate.

[Dr. Arch]

The turnout decline in some of these rural areas is striking.

It's even more striking that, even with all those rural declines, overall turnout will be higher this year than it was in 2016.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The turnout decline in some of these rural areas is striking.

I think this may be early warning that Trump is likely to improve even more than in 2016 in those rural areas that swung to him in the Midwest/North. Meanwhile urban areas/suburbs swing even further to the Dems than they did for Clinton.

[Mehmentum]

The turnout decline in some of these rural areas is striking.

I think this may be early warning that Trump is likely to improve even more than in 2016 in those rural areas that swung to him in the Midwest/North. Meanwhile urban areas/suburbs swing even further to the Dems than they did for Clinton.

Yep, this is likely the case.  The re-alignment is strengthening.  These results confirm that even a Sanders candidacy wouldn't dent it.  Any 'turn out the base' strategy would be mobilizing low turnout groups like young people and Hispanics- abundant in the Sunbelt, not so much in the midwest.

[NOVA Green]

Precincts Reporting---- (1623/1765 Precincts)---  92.0%

Outstanding "Traditional"--- FINAL Non Sat precincts by largest County:

Polk County: (165/177 Precincts)

Des Moines--- Precinct (66) & (83)--- South... Bernie generally leads in surrounding precincts with Pete 2nd

Des Moines--- Precinct (24)--- NE... Sanders 1st, Pete 2nd

Urbandale--- Precinct (3) ---- Warren/Bernie/Pete all pretty strong in surrounding precincts

West DM--- Precinct (212)--- Strong Bernie Country around here, with both Warren & Pete competitive

Clive--- Precinct (4)--- Strong Pete Country to the West with Warren, Klob, & Warren doing well....

Ankeny--- Precinct (---- Bernie/Pete Country in surrounding precincts

Bondurant--- Precinct (1)---- Likely Pete

Sheldahl- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob Country

Polk City--- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob Country

Allen--- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob sort of area

So I'm missing one because of small NYT Map Size (or possible Polk County has it's own Sat???)

I have no idea of the relative total vote within those precincts, but it looks like Bernie has a decent shot at placing 1st in 6/11 listed, and Pete the others (or even possibly a Warren or Klob grab)....

[jimrtex]

The last dump reduced the number of outstanding regular precincts from 158 to 109. These are in 51 counties. It is possible that they are processing by county. All the materials including ballot cards go to the county chair. By now they might be in Des Moines. Or they could be counting in each county. The counties with the most outstanding before updated the most.

Polk 12 (18 previous dump)
Scott 9 (13)
Story 8 (10)
Woodbury 7 (11)
Pottawattamie 5 (5)
Warren 3 (5)
Clayton 3 (3)
Linn 3 (3)
Tama 3 (3)

OTOH it is possible that they are encountering the most intractable errors, where they don't have ballot cards, or viability was miscalculated.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225261639529902081?s=20

[Matty]

gass3268, why are you against sanders?

[NOVA Green]

Precincts Reporting---- (1623/1765 Precincts)---  92.0%

Outstanding "Traditional"--- FINAL Non Sat precincts by largest County:

Linn: (83/86 Precincts)----

Cedar Rapids--- Precinct (23).... Looks to be likely Bernie, with Warren as a 2nd... Pete did place 3rd in precinct directly to the Southeast

Cedar Rapids--- Precinct (28).... Solid Bernie Country in surrounding Precincts within the City, with Warren & Pete alternating a few sloppy 2nds . Still, Pete did win a precinct directly to the South with Biden placing 2nd, so.... Lean Sanders (?)

Marion---- Precinct (7).... Tossup/ Tilt Bernie (?) Bernie captured the adjacent excepting the one to the North, but the precinct to the west was won by (1) vote over Pete, and the precinct to the East Warren did a strong 2nd with Pete placing 4th....

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225261639529902081?s=20

Thanks for linking directly to Steve's Tweet which I had posted about his comments after seeing upthead....

CD-03 is still the most SDE rich Satellite location.....and if trends are real, could be a nice Bernie haul based upon Steve's map on the magic board....

[n1240]

Precincts Reporting---- (1623/1765 Precincts)---  92.0%

Outstanding "Traditional"--- FINAL Non Sat precincts by largest County:

Polk County: (165/177 Precincts)

Des Moines--- Precinct (66) & (83)--- South... Bernie generally leads in surrounding precincts with Pete 2nd

Des Moines--- Precinct (24)--- NE... Sanders 1st, Pete 2nd

Urbandale--- Precinct (3) ---- Warren/Bernie/Pete all pretty strong in surrounding precincts

West DM--- Precinct (212)--- Strong Bernie Country around here, with both Warren & Pete competitive

Clive--- Precinct (4)--- Strong Pete Country to the West with Warren, Klob, & Warren doing well....

Ankeny--- Precinct (---- Bernie/Pete Country in surrounding precincts

Bondurant--- Precinct (1)---- Likely Pete

Sheldahl- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob Country

Polk City--- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob Country

Allen--- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob sort of area

So I'm missing one because of small NYT Map Size (or possible Polk County has it's own Sat???)

I have no idea of the relative total vote within those precincts, but it looks like Bernie has a decent shot at placing 1st in 6/11 listed, and Pete the others (or even possibly a Warren or Klob grab)....

You're missing Washington-01

Here are the Pete SDE totals in these precincts (along with total SDEs in the county)

Ankeny-08: Pete .84/2.8
Bondurant-01: .84/1.68
Clive-04: .84/2.8
Des Moines-24: .28/1.12
Des Moines-66: 1.12/3.36
Des Moines-83: .56/2.24
Polk City-01: 1.12/3.08
Sheldahl-01: 0/.28
Urbandale-03: .84/2.8
Washington-01: .28/.28
WDM-212: .84/3.08

Don't have Pete data on Allen-01 but it only has .28 SDEs for the precinct

Pete earns 7.56 from this precincts, a bit better than than 7 SDEs currently projected by the NYTimes.

[Agonized-Statism]

R.I.P. that Swedish Yang Gang user

[NOVA Green]

AP just went from 1623 > 1624 precincts reporting....

Any idea which one???