Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Walmart_shopper]

So at this rate, Bernie will be losing Iowa again.

The thing with Bernie is that 25% is fine, but it's clear in the 2nd round what is his problem is. He doesn't have crossover appeal beyond his die-hards. That's the reason Buttigieg got such a good 2nd realignment #.

No. Bernie won both first and final votes. It's just Iowa's silly apportionment system that he lost. Also, Buttigieg got virtually the same percentage as Bernie. Does he has a crossover appeal problem, too? In any case, Buttigieg has virtually no shot anywhere other than Iowa , where he played his entire hand. Bernie (and Biden and Warren) have appeal across the country and across the various demographics necessary to win a democratic primary. Any one of those three could plausibly win at this point. Buttigieg cannot.

[jaichind]

So at this rate, Bernie will be losing Iowa again.

The thing with Bernie is that 25% is fine, but it's clear in the 2nd round what is his problem is. He doesn't have crossover appeal beyond his die-hards. That's the reason Buttigieg got such a good 2nd realignment #.

Winning Iowa really doesn't matter much this year IMO. There is a 24-hour news cycle. The masses have moved on, and when people look back they won't care that Buttigieg beat Sanders by less than 1% if that happens, or whatever the margin is. They'll see the delegates were all mostly the same, too. The experienced political people often talk about how nobody wins Iowa but it slims the field down. Well, this year it's true more than ever that nobody is winning Iowa, but it's less true than ever that it's going to slim the field down.

If so then weather Biden gets above 15% is critical.  If he gets above 15% then the delegate allocation will look more like a 4 way tie between  Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren and Biden.  Biden then can claim that it was a 4 way tied in IA.

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1224889514184921089

I've been saying for weeks Biden is weak as hell. People now saying it's not his state but it's not like he wasn't contesting it. He was there almost exclusively in the last month, he has been on TV, he spent money, he got congressional endorsements, this result is beyond terrible for him.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So at this rate, Bernie will be losing Iowa again.

The thing with Bernie is that 25% is fine, but it's clear in the 2nd round what is his problem is. He doesn't have crossover appeal beyond his die-hards. That's the reason Buttigieg got such a good 2nd realignment #.

Winning Iowa really doesn't matter much this year IMO. There is a 24-hour news cycle. The masses have moved on, and when people look back they won't care that Buttigieg beat Sanders by less than 1% if that happens, or whatever the margin is. They'll see the delegates were all mostly the same, too. The experienced political people often talk about how nobody wins Iowa but it slims the field down. Well, this year it's true more than ever that nobody is winning Iowa, but it's less true than ever that it's going to slim the field down.

If so then weather Biden gets above 15% is critical.  If he gets above 15% then the delegate allocation will look more like a 4 way tie between  Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren and Biden.  Biden then can claim that it was a 4 way tied in IA.

Delegate-wise, sure. But we know it wasn’t.

[Skye]

How is it that heads still haven't rolled in the Iowa Democratic Party after this disaster?

[J. J.]

AP has D turnout at about 2000.  That can't be right.  Anybody have better numbers?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It is with a heavy heart that I inform you all that Pete Buttigieg is now known on this side of the Atlantic amongst even the non-political types

[Adam Griffin]

AP has D turnout at about 2000.  That can't be right.  Anybody have better numbers?

200000, you mean? With 71% reporting thus far, somewhere between 180-210k is the likely range of outcomes once everything is counted.

[cp]

Any news about when the final 29% of the vote, or parts thereof, is going to be released?

[2016]

Any news about when the final 29% of the vote, or parts thereof, is going to be released?

Sometime this Afternoon I would guess. The Question is: Will it come before or after Trumps Aquittal.

[Annatar]

With 71% of precincts in we have 128,855 votes in the first alignment, assuming the remaining precincts are of the same size, we will see around 181,000 votes, somewhat higher than the 171,000 we saw in 2016. For comparison the Republican 2016 caucus had 187,000 votes.

[jaichind]

With 71% or precincts in we have 128,855 votes in the first alignment, assuming the remaining precincts are of the same size, we will see around 181,000 votes, somewhat higher then the 171,000 we saw in 2016.

But still less than the 2016 GOP IA caucus turnout of around 187K

[Annatar]

My personal opinion is people shouldn't make to much of turnout not being much higher for the democrats then 2016. Iowa is a state that's rapidly trending Republican, it voted 11.5% more Republican than the country in 2016, there are probably a lot of people who used to be democrats in Iowa that are now Republicans so the actual democratic base in Iowa has shrunk so getting higher turnout is difficult.

I daresay even many of the people who showed up to attend the Iowa caucuses this time will be Republican by 2024, for example the woman who didn't like the fact Buttigieg is gay, culturally conservative voters like her will continue to switch and she herself will probably be voting Republican in 2024.

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1225064827233673217

[jaichind]

My personal opinion is people shouldn't make to much of turnout not being much higher for the democrats then 2016. Iowa is a state that's rapidly trending Republican, it voted 11.5% more Republican than the country in 2016, there are probably a lot of people who used to be democrats in Iowa that are now Republicans so the actual democratic base in Iowa has shrunk so getting higher turnout is difficult.

I daresay even many of the people who showed up to attend the Iowa caucuses this time will be Republican by 2024, for example the woman who didn't like the fact Buttigieg is gay, culturally conservative voters like her will continue to switch and she herself will probably be voting Republican in 2024.

I think the counterargument to that is that unlike 2016 IA caucus pretty much all factions of the Dem party coalition are represented in the 2020  IA caucus (sort of like the 2016 GOP IA caucus) so one would expect turnout to surge relative to 2016.  It is strange that it did not.

[Annatar]

My personal opinion is people shouldn't make to much of turnout not being much higher for the democrats then 2016. Iowa is a state that's rapidly trending Republican, it voted 11.5% more Republican than the country in 2016, there are probably a lot of people who used to be democrats in Iowa that are now Republicans so the actual democratic base in Iowa has shrunk so getting higher turnout is difficult.

I daresay even many of the people who showed up to attend the Iowa caucuses this time will be Republican by 2024, for example the woman who didn't like the fact Buttigieg is gay, culturally conservative voters like her will continue to switch and she herself will probably be voting Republican in 2024.

I think the counterargument to that is that unlike 2016 IA caucus pretty much all factions of the Dem party coalition are represented in the 2020  IA caucus (sort of like the 2016 GOP IA caucus) so one would expect turnout to surge relative to 2016.  It is strange that it did not.

That's a fair point, I guess the explanation may still be that the party is shrinking so fast that turnout did rise, maybe the committed dem base in Iowa was 300k in 2016 and 171k turned out or 57% and that hardcore base is down to 270k and 181k turned out or 67%, so turnout was up a lot but the actual committed democratic base is shrinking.

The Fox 2018 exit poll for what its worth had the nation being 46D vs 43R, or a +3D electorate in terms of Party ID, including leaners whereas Iowa was 47R vs 36D, +11R.

[Mehmentum]

AP has D turnout at about 2000.  That can't be right.  Anybody have better numbers?

200000, you mean? With 71% reporting thus far, somewhere between 180-210k is the likely range of outcomes once everything is counted.

Straight up extrapolating from the number of precincts puts it at 180k, is there any reason to expect the remaining precincts to larger than average?

[Dr. Arch]

AP has D turnout at about 2000.  That can't be right.  Anybody have better numbers?

200000, you mean? With 71% reporting thus far, somewhere between 180-210k is the likely range of outcomes once everything is counted.

Straight up extrapolating from the number of precincts puts it at 180k, is there any reason to expect the remaining precincts to larger than average?

Most of them are city prencincts.

[Mehmentum]

Crossposting from AAD:

So, looking into exit polls, I think I've found something interesting.

So first of all, youth turnout is up:

17-29: 18% -> 24%
17-44: 37% -> 45%

Since turnout overall is looking roughly equal to 2016, that means that we have about a 33% increase in turnout of the under 30 demographic, but at the expense of much fewer old folks.  Why is that?

Another mystery is why only 31% of people in the exit poll voted for Sanders in 2016... where did all his other voters go?  My guess, the answer to both these questions is that all of Sanders older voters voted for Trump and didn't look back (or perhaps, more charitably, some of them became disaffected with the political process and are no longer engaged).

Sanders got 84% of 17-29's in 2016, and 48% in 2020- 57% retention.  Contrast that to the 65+ age range- he got 26% in 2016, but only 4% this year- just 15% retention.  Sanders' older voters decamped and are no longer interested.

[Sir Mohamed]

With 29% outstanding for reporting, Sanders still has a decent shot to win overall?

[Dr. Arch]

With 29% outstanding for reporting, Sanders still has a decent shot to win overall?

It doesn't look that way.

[Farmlands]

With 29% outstanding for reporting, Sanders still has a decent shot to win overall?

There is a very low chance, but there are still quite some votes left in urban areas. Too bad the Iowa dems haven't uttered a single word about when to expect the final results. I'm feeling completely burned out, at this point.

[Volrath50]

Another mystery is why only 31% of people in the exit poll voted for Sanders in 2016... where did all his other voters go?  My guess, the answer to both these questions is that all of Sanders older voters voted for Trump and didn't look back (or perhaps, more charitably, some of them became disaffected with the political process and are no longer engaged).

I thought that was weird as well. I think there is a chance some entrance poll respondents might have got confused and checked off that they supported Clinton in the 2016 caucus, thinking it was asking about the 2016 general election. Otherwise it makes no sense - Clinton got less than 50% of caucus supporters in 2016 - with 37% of caucus goers being first time attendees, and turnout being about the same, the entrance poll, taken at face value (saying 54% supported Clinton in 2016, and that was of the full sample, not just 2016 attendees) literally does not add up.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

So basically it's looking like Bernie is going to win the raw votes while Pete wins the SDEs? And we can map that out even though the ~29% outstanding vote contains a lot of the areas that Bernie does well in?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So at this rate, Bernie will be losing Iowa again.

The thing with Bernie is that 25% is fine, but it's clear in the 2nd round what is his problem is. He doesn't have crossover appeal beyond his die-hards. That's the reason Buttigieg got such a good 2nd realignment #.

I agree, but as defense, in terms of PV it was:


Pete  21.4% tom 25.2% (+3.8 )
Sanders 24.4% to 26.2% (+1.8 )
Warren 18.8% to 20.6% (+1.4)
Biden   14.7 to 13.2 (-1.5)
Klobuchar 12.8 to 12.5 (-0.3)

that is Sanders may be was hurt by strong Warren. I don't know how much you can extrapolate from this.