Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Again:

HOW STUPID ARE THE PEOPLE OF IOWA?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If I were then, I'd just discounted the "Iowa bounce" entirely, and just waited for the next batch of polls to come out. This whole clusterf**k has probably dulled whatever momentum Pete or Bernie might have gotten (and more importantly, softened the blow for Biden), so I doubt these numbers will stick. But we shall see.

At least part of the "Iowa Bounce" is not actually a bounce, however (not in the sense of being an actual change in support). It is partly just first contact of polls and likely voter models with reality. Polls tend to be off, but they tend to be off systematically to some degree in a correlated way. In particular, the fact that Biden greatly under-performed in Iowa relative to polls is suggestive that he may also do so in other states (though that is of course no guarantee).

That's a fair point, but voting patterns in a caucus are very different from voting patterns in a primary, so polling misses in the former are not necessarily predictive of polling misses in the latter. It's certainly possible that Biden support is overestimated across the board, but we really don't have enough evidence to make any pronouncement about it yet. And even if it is, it's not the kind of thing you can model (538 has always been adamant about not second-guessing polls except to account for house effects).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sanders does not have a 40% chance at winning South Carolina...

[atheist4thecause]

538 updated their model post-Iowa and Bernie is the frontrunner (although the chance of a contested convention has increased noticeably).

For once, 538 is being way too bullish on Sanders. It's one thing to say he's the single most likely candidate to win, but to say that he's now favored to win AR, NC, TN, and VA, and essentially tied in SC? Their model puts way too much weight on "momentum."

I learned the faults of 538 modeling through their sports actually. It's not a prediction at all. When I was watching the baseball season they would just shift the odds after every game. Then at the end of the year they claimed how right they were. It's like well, no, you drastically changed your model over the course of the year.

They do the same for politics. It's better to look at a 538 model as evidence of what happened in the past, not a prediction of what is going to happen in the future. Their model isn't a prediction and it's not falsifiable. They know it. They'll just take credit anytime their results match their most likely scenario and then they will point out that they only put out odds when the result doesn't match the most likely scenario. 538 are frauds.

[W]

Any word yet on when we get more votes? These numbers are making me tense.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Sanders does not have a 40% chance at winning South Carolina...

Sanders, Steyer and Biden are all right around 20%, and all have made in-road with the black community. I wouldn't be shocked if Sanders won it as he has established himself as the familiar guy from last time. He's not a detested villain, he was just second to Hillary last time and now people know who he is. He is an ally and a fighter for them, incrementalist as they tend to be. I don't think you can argue his odds of winning are less than 20-25%.

I'd still call Steyer the favourite but not by much.

[2016]

Any word yet on when we get more votes? These numbers are making me tense.

Maybe around Midnight. Maybe! That's not a guarantee though!

[Florida Man for Crime]

I have no idea what's going on in Iowa anymore.

I am very confident that the 538 model is incredibly stupid, though.

If it still said that Biden would win, you would say that the 538 model is great.

[Babeuf]

Have any of the satellite caucus locations been inputted to these results?

[American2020]

I have no idea what's going on in Iowa anymore.

I am very confident that the 538 model is incredibly stupid, though.

If it still said that Biden would win, you would say that the 538 model is great.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1225215545617866753

[KaiserDave]

I have no idea what's going on in Iowa anymore.

I am very confident that the 538 model is incredibly stupid, though.

If it still said that Biden would win, you would say that the 538 model is great.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1225215545617866753

False

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1225219245610610689

Seems like hot air to me considering the remaining vote appears to be more favorable to Buttigieg

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 528 model is giving 85% of the Iowa bounce to Pete and 15% to Bernie (because of course the fake news media is focusing on mathematical constructs instead of people).

Still want to see what the actual polls say though.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1225219245610610689

Seems like hot air to me considering the remaining vote appears to be more favorable to Buttigieg

Oh great, Sanders math is back.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1225219245610610689

Seems like hot air to me considering the remaining vote appears to be more favorable to Buttigieg

Oh great, Sanders math is back.

And then when he doesn't, it's rigged.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at what data we have available right now, one thing stands out very clear. Buttigieg was the candidate of the suburbs.



It is most visible in the near Des Moines suburbs in Polk, pictured above. It can also be seen in the rest of the state, it's just less visible because Iowa isn't really a suburban state. I'm not going to argue in favor of him winning overall through this route, but I think those suggesting Buttigieg tapers off after New Hampshire might want to look at this dynamic. If Buttigeig is the candidate preferred by those educated suburban voters that gave the dems the House, than he has plenty of potential targets  on the horizon. However, I am not going to push this point beyond the data, since I do not wish to make an argument in favor of, or opposition to certain candidates. Just look for this next week in NH, I suspect Pete's best towns will be clustered along the Massachusetts border.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1225219245610610689

Seems like hot air to me considering the remaining vote appears to be more favorable to Buttigieg

Oh great, Sanders math is back.

And then when he doesn't, it's rigged.

There is only one candidate who's been making allegations about the integrity of the process, and it's not Sanders.

Anyway yeah, this is probably wishful thinking, and I think Bernie would be better off just declaring victory based on the popular vote and moving on, but we'll find out soon enough.

[John Dule]

538 updated their model post-Iowa and Bernie is the frontrunner (although the chance of a contested convention has increased noticeably).

For once, 538 is being way too bullish on Sanders. It's one thing to say he's the single most likely candidate to win, but to say that he's now favored to win AR, NC, TN, and VA, and essentially tied in SC? Their model puts way too much weight on "momentum."

I learned the faults of 538 modeling through their sports actually. It's not a prediction at all. When I was watching the baseball season they would just shift the odds after every game. Then at the end of the year they claimed how right they were. It's like well, no, you drastically changed your model over the course of the year.

They do the same for politics. It's better to look at a 538 model as evidence of what happened in the past, not a prediction of what is going to happen in the future. Their model isn't a prediction and it's not falsifiable. They know it. They'll just take credit anytime their results match their most likely scenario and then they will point out that they only put out odds when the result doesn't match the most likely scenario. 538 are frauds.

Lol, because it's totally reasonable to expect them to predict elections months in advance without altering their odds based on new information. If Sanders died tomorrow you'd be screaming about how 538 was wrong that he'd win New Hampshire. Politics is unpredictable. Statistical odds are the best we're going to get.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1225219245610610689

Seems like hot air to me considering the remaining vote appears to be more favorable to Buttigieg

Oh great, Sanders math is back.

And then when he doesn't, it's rigged.

Not entirely true that the remaining Vote is more favorable to Buttigieg. If you you purely by IADP Standards here are the outstanding Precincts:
18 in Polk
10 in Story
11 in Woodbury
13 in Scott
among others.

So, yes I'd give both Popular Vote Counts to Sanders.

[Mehmentum]

Looking at what data we have available right now, one thing stands out very clear. Buttigieg was the candidate of the suburbs.



It is most visible in the near Des Moines suburbs in Polk, pictured above. It can also be seen in the rest of the state, it's just less visible because Iowa isn't really a suburban state. I'm not going to argue in favor of him winning overall through this route, but I think those suggesting Buttigieg tapers off after New Hampshire might want to look at this dynamic. If Buttigeig is the candidate preferred by those educated suburban voters that gave the dems the House, than he has plenty of potential targets  on the horizon. However, I am not going to push this point beyond the data, since I do not wish to make an argument in favor of, or opposition to certain candidates. Just look for this next week in NH, I suspect Pete's best towns will be clustered along the Massachusetts border.

This is very likely true, and it will probably allow him to be competitive in many states.  But it is not a winning coalition- he needs more than that.  White suburbanites were just one part of Clinton's 2016 coalition- alongside blacks and Hispanics.

[Intell]

Didn't Buttigeg do well with rural whites as well, of the ones that turned out at leasst?

[2016]

92 % is now in and Sanders is now within a Point of Buttigieg

Buttigieg 26.5
Sanders 25.6
Warren 18.2
Biden 15.9
Klobuchar 12.1

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Is the election rigged? No.

Is the incompetence so egregious that Democrats shouldn't seat any delegates? Absolutely.

[n1240]

Most of the recent vote dump seems to be from satellite caucuses

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most of the recent vote dump seems to be from satellite caucuses

OK yeah, Pete has won the SDEs.