Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Hindsight was 2020]

When should we get another batch?

[Senator Spark]

So... does Sanders win it?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Breakdown of the last two batches:

Final vote:
Bernie 34.9%
Warren 19.5%
Pete 18.1%
Klob 14.0%
Biden 12.5%

SDE:
Bernie 35.7%
Pete 19.7%
Warren 16.5%
Biden 13.5%
Klob 13.0%

[Diabolical Materialism]

Breakdown of the last two batches:

Final vote:
Bernie 34.9%
Warren 19.5%
Pete 18.1%
Klob 14.0%
Biden 12.5%

SDE:
Bernie 35.7%
Pete 19.7%
Warren 16.5%
Biden 13.5%
Klob 13.0%

Not sure how Sanders can top these. I think Buttigieg might narrowly take it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Everyone should also remember that in 2016, Sanders "lost" Iowa by 4 SDEs resulting from coin tosses. And given the way that delegates are distributed geographically (more weight on rural counties, and especially less weight on college towns), it is basically a sure thing that he also won the popular vote then.

Hillary won the PV in 2016 by like ~1,000 votes iirc.

The popular vote was not recorded in 2016, that is a new thing that only started in the 2020 caucus.

[Adam Griffin]

Just putting together a list of data-points from this thread and elsewhere, I think the final margin is basically going to be this (2-4 delegate win for Buttigieg), unless there are more reporting errors and/or select precincts buck NYT's analysis.

Nevertheless, incredible.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just putting together a list of data-points from this thread and elsewhere, I think the final margin is basically going to be this (2-4 delegate win for Buttigieg), unless there are more reporting errors and/or select precincts buck NYT's analysis.

Nevertheless, incredible.

It really depends how big of a share Warren takes from Bernie in the satellite for CD1

[jimrtex]

I'm looking at the satellite results and they don't make sense.

Either I don't understand how they are calculated, or the IDP doesn't understand.

I think the NYT needle is at 50/50.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1225288440058507265?s=20

I'm going to guess the result is better than CD-04 for Sanders, but not as good as CD-02. There are only 13 sites in CD-01, so not as big as CD-03.

[Adam Griffin]

It really depends how big of a share Warren takes from Bernie in the satellite for CD1

I'm looking at the satellite results and they don't make sense.

Either I don't understand how they are calculated, or the IDP doesn't understand.

I think the NYT needle is at 50/50.

Wasn't it you that said there can only be a max of 9 SDEs per CD satellite? If that's true - and even if Sanders wins like 70% of the SDEs there - then that's not enough to overcome his 3.4 SDE deficit right now + the (going on RI's data prior) 5 net delegates that NYT thinks he'll get from traditional precincts.

[YE]

Not sure what's more amazing.

The fact I step away from this thread and I didn't have to moderate anything when I got back or that Bernie may have a fighting chance after all.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1225288440058507265?s=20

I'm going to guess the result is better than CD-04 for Sanders, but not as good as CD-02. There are only 13 sites in CD-01, so not as big as CD-03.

He doesn't need a lot now to leapfrog Buttigieg.

[Oryxslayer]

With the NYT map we can see generally what is is left. Here's a map of Polk, with red circles around precincts expected to be better for Sanders, blue for Pete, purple for closer precincts likely to be a wash.

82 precincts out 47 are traditional ones, 35 are satellite.


Top 25 traditional

-8 are in Polk, see my previous map. (Above quote)
-1 is in Linn: Cedar Rapids 28. This is in a region that Sanders won,but Buttigeig and Warren were in 2nd/3rd, and hot on Sanders heels.
-1 is in Johnson: Graham Township. Warren should win.
-4 are in Scott. D52 is in inner Davenport and Sanders will sweep when compared to Pete. Hickory grove township should be the opposite. The remaining two are in West Davenport where Sanders and Pete are close, aka a wash in SDEs.
-2 are in Black Hawk. One is inside waterloo city and should give Sanders first position. One is outside the city and Biden won it's neighbors, with no clear order to other candidates.
-2 are in Story, but both are outside of Ames and in the suburbs/rurals. These were better for Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
-2 are  in Pottawattamie. One of these is in Carter Bluff, a Geographic abnormality in Iowa. The other carter bluff precinct had Biden lead ahead of Sanders, but neighboring precincts in Council Bluffs had Sanders lead. The other is more rural and should have Pete lead.
-3 are in Woodbury, and all three are in Sioux City. One is in central city and will give sanders a high net over Pete, the other two will likely be more mixed washes.
-2 are  in suburban Warren. These will be strong Buttigein areas.
-1 is in Muscatine: Muscatine 08. Should be for sanders.

Bottom 21 requested so...

-1 is in Wapello: Rural but Someone else will lead over Pete, who will lead  over Sanders.
-1 is in Marion that is all for Buttegieg.
-1 is in Cedar, specifically Tipton city. Could be Pete lead, likely to be a wash.
-1 is in tama outside of Indian Settlement. Could be wash, could be Pete.
-2 are in rural Calyton, both will be for Pete.
-1 is rural in Floyd, Pete will net over Bernie.
-1 is in rural Kossuth, Pete net
-1 is in rural Clay - Pete
-2 are in Buena Vista. One is in the town of storn lake, which should be a wash between bernie and a few others. The other is rural and likely to be a wash thanks to the  other candidates.
-1 in Rural Allamakee on the MN border. Klob/Pete
-1 in Sioux. Sanders liekly got nothing here, Pete/Klob on top
-2 in Guthrie West of  Des Moines. Both easy Pete wins over Bernie, though klob and biden could come on top.
-1 in Mitchel: Mitchel 9. Klob/Pete.
-1 in Cherokee outside of the town of Cherokee. Bernie came  on top in nearby precincts, but could be a wash because its the outer precinct.
-1 in rural  Worth county. Klob/Pete
-1 in palo Alto in the town of Emmetsburg. Biden led the other town precinct, and Pete all around. Bernie way back.
-1 in Sac:  Sac wall lake. Will be Biden/Pete/Klob on top of bernie
-1 in Ringgold. Bernie got no votes in the surrounding area of this county, Pete net gain.

Now, this only adds up to 21. That is because 1 Buttigeig precinct in Fort Webster dropped with the rest of CD4.

In general, the land is better for Pete, but there isn't that much of it.

[Sorenroy]

The Needle has left us:

The needle has been suspended to evaluate how it is processing the results of satellite caucuses.

[Dr. Arch]

Are they releasing the remaining 3% tonight?

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1225289697603260419?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...

[Eraserhead]

If this was a race I didn't care about, it would be fun to follow.

As it stands, it's basically the equivalent of Chinese water torture.

[NOVA Green]

Not sure what's more amazing.

The fact I step away from this thread and I didn't have to moderate anything when I got back or that Bernie may have a fighting chance after all.

Helps when the trolls step out of the house, and the geeks do their thang'....

[Sorenroy]

I know the conventional wisdom seems to be that the reporting of the results has been in Buttigieg's favor, but if Sanders ends up winning all three counts it's going to lead to a news cycle dominated by correcting the error. This will both give Sanders a boost closer to New Hampshire and circumvent some of the coverage loss of Impeachment/the State of the Union. Doesn't seem like a wholly bad result.

[Dr. Arch]

Did Bernie just backdoor Pete's campaign via the satellites? What a volta!

[Florida Man for Crime]

The Needle has left us:

The needle has been suspended to evaluate how it is processing the results of satellite caucuses.

[Xing]

So basically, this will come down to:

1) How much Sanders wins the final satellite by, and

2) If the remaining in-state precincts go the way we think they will

That right? How likely is a pledged delegate tie, at this point?

[Oryxslayer]

I know the conventional wisdom seems to be that the reporting of the results has been in Buttigieg's favor, but if Sanders ends up winning all three counts it's going to lead to a news cycle dominated by correcting the error. This will both give Sanders a boost closer to New Hampshire and circumvent some of the coverage loss of Impeachment/the State of the Union. Doesn't seem like a wholly bad result.

It's kinda too late though, the CNN town halls/debates are happening and the weekend tends to silence this sort of thing. HOWEVER, it does appear that Sanders won't need the media. He and Pete are at this point pulling from different pools of voters. While Pete clearly got a bump, Sanders likely got one that helped gain or maintain his voters since he topped the polls on that side of the spectrum.

[It’s so Joever]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225291441209069573