Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[atheist4thecause]

I'm watching CNN and they are talking about Biden and comments from his campaign...wow is the Biden campaign downplaying expectations. They must have internal polling that shows he is not going to do well. He's dominating in South Carolina/South according to polls, so he's probably trying to hang on until then without losing too much momentum.

[Sestak]

[transcription]

Graham Ambrose
@Grahambrose
WATCH: supporters of @BernieSanders chant and cheer at this caucus site in Des Moines#IowaCaucuses

(video embed)

12
4:24 PM - Feb 3, 2020

[Ljube]

Two points with regards to the retirement home number in Florida.

I had Klobuchar only losing by 50k to Trump which is nothing but Sanders losing by 300k.
The old vote is going to critical for any democratic nominee in Florida/Arizona if a dem is to win here. Sanders offers different strengths like in ohio, kentucky, west virginia but I don't think he can win in florida or arizona.

Klobuchar does expand the map but she has zero support with young people or people in the liberal states.

Dems think the fracking policy is bad but its actually sound policy for votes in the midwest.

As if the liberal states are going to vote Trump.

[Queen Isuelt]

Sanders is going to rack up massive amounts of votes in Johnson county.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I'm watching CNN and they are talking about Biden and comments from his campaign...wow is the Biden campaign downplaying expectations. They must have internal polling that shows he is not going to do well. He's dominating in South Carolina/South according to polls, so he's probably trying to hang on until then without losing too much momentum.

Biden isn't dominating in South Carolina though, he is losing support to Steyer there. And seemingly losing support to Bloomberg in super Tuesday states, at least if the national polls are an indicator of super Tuesday states.

[bilaps]

I'm watching CNN and they are talking about Biden and comments from his campaign...wow is the Biden campaign downplaying expectations. They must have internal polling that shows he is not going to do well. He's dominating in South Carolina/South according to polls, so he's probably trying to hang on until then without losing too much momentum.

They've been downplaying expectations for a few days now. I think that some polls showing Biden ahead or tied didn't do him any favours. His lane is clogged more than progresive one and if Klobuchar is surging, that's really really bad news for him.

[Matty]

I don’t understand why biden campaign is so confident that nh and Iowa results won’t affect his South Carolina performance

[Florida Man for Crime]

Don't look now, but there is a would-be Bennet voter in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1224460158509580288

The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
Meet Tim. He is sitting in the uncommitted section. He initially wanted Bennet but he doesn't seem to have representation here. He will be watching what happens in the first two rounds. #IowaCaucusAZ
Image
4:30 PM · Feb 3, 2020·Twitter for Android

Bennetmentum? Almost? ... ?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think it's clear that Klobuchar is doing better than expected.

[We Live in Black and White]

I don’t understand why biden campaign is so confident that nh and Iowa results won’t affect his South Carolina performance

Seriously. With Steyer and Klobuchar apparently building a legitimate base in the South out of Biden's own voters, he absolutely cannot afford to be so suicidally cocky.

[atheist4thecause]

Two points with regards to the retirement home number in Florida.

I had Klobuchar only losing by 50k to Trump which is nothing but Sanders losing by 300k.
The old vote is going to critical for any democratic nominee in Florida/Arizona if a dem is to win here. Sanders offers different strengths like in ohio, kentucky, west virginia but I don't think he can win in florida or arizona.

Klobuchar does expand the map but she has zero support with young people or people in the liberal states.

Dems think the fracking policy is bad but its actually sound policy for votes in the midwest.

As if the liberal states are going to vote Trump.

1) I don't agree that Klobuchar has 0 support in liberal states but...

2) Trump lost Minnesota by only 1.5%

If Amy Klobuchar is elected, that takes Minnesota out of play to the point where time and money doesn't even need to be spent there to defend it. Other candidates may need to defend Minnesota. She's also likely to do much better in the Midwestern toss up states than the other candidates.

[beaver2.0]

I quite hope we get a Klobusurge tonight.

[Hydera]

Two points with regards to the retirement home number in Florida.

I had Klobuchar only losing by 50k to Trump which is nothing but Sanders losing by 300k.
The old vote is going to critical for any democratic nominee in Florida/Arizona if a dem is to win here. Sanders offers different strengths like in ohio, kentucky, west virginia but I don't think he can win in florida or arizona.

Klobuchar does expand the map but she has zero support with young people or people in the liberal states.

Dems think the fracking policy is bad but its actually sound policy for votes in the midwest.

As if the liberal states are going to vote Trump.

1) I don't agree that Klobuchar has 0 support in liberal states but...

2) Trump lost Minnesota by only 1.5%

If Amy Klobuchar is elected, that takes Minnesota out of play to the point where time and money doesn't even need to be spent there to defend it. Other candidates may need to defend Minnesota. She's also likely to do much better in the Midwestern toss up states than the other candidates.

Hillary did bad in Minnesota because working class democrats despised her not because she wasn't centrist enough.

[Florida Man for Crime]

It may be telling that Sanders' best performances in the satellite caucuses are actually in Iowa so far. The demographics of those that caucused in Ottumwa, Keokuk, Fort Madison, and Cedar Rapids (much more young, working-class, and diverse) are far more indicative of who will turn out tonight in the regular caucus.

CNN showing the Des Moines satellite caucus and it looks like Bernie is winning it. The reporter said there was a large group for Bernie, and smaller ones for Buttigieg and Warren. No mention of Biden.

[We Live in Black and White]

It may be telling that Sanders' best performances in the satellite caucuses are actually in Iowa so far. The demographics of those that caucused in Ottumwa, Keokuk, Fort Madison, and Cedar Rapids (much more young, working-class, and diverse) are far more indicative of who will turn out tonight in the regular caucus.

CNN showing the Des Moines satellite caucus and it looks like Bernie is winning it. The reporter said there was a large group for Bernie, and smaller ones for Buttigieg and Warren. No mention of Biden.

Jesus.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224460241053589515

NYT is live with precincts, models, and NEEDLES.

[Holmes]

A Klobsurge at Biden's expense in Iowa is great news for Sanders. But if it allows Klobuchar to stay in until Super Tuesday and win Minnesota over Sanders, that might be a net negative for him.

[Queen Isuelt]

what % of the democratic base is voters over 65?  anyone know?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I would have so much fun if Biden ended up 5th. He'll probably do well in rural low educated areas, esp. near the Missouri border.

[bilaps]

Wow, Zeleny trying his best not to say that there are literaly 50+ Sanders supporters and all others have like 10. There is a group of Warren supporters he says, there are 3 of them and there is a groupo of Sanders supporters.

[Thunder98]

Is it possible that Biden gets Jeb'ed tonight?

[TWTown]

First round vote so far:

18 Sanders (75%)
  2 Buttigieg (8%)
  2 Klobuchar (8%)
  2 Warren (8%)

Second round vote:

19 Sanders (83%)
  2 Buttigieg (9%)
  2 Klobuchar (9%)

Post deleted by moderator

Please dont.

I am very glad they had the foresight to delete that. Honestly, that was an absolutely reprehensible thing to even allude to.

[Ljube]

Is it possible that Biden gets Jeb'ed tonight?

Why not? He's a weak candidate.

[atheist4thecause]

Two points with regards to the retirement home number in Florida.

I had Klobuchar only losing by 50k to Trump which is nothing but Sanders losing by 300k.
The old vote is going to critical for any democratic nominee in Florida/Arizona if a dem is to win here. Sanders offers different strengths like in ohio, kentucky, west virginia but I don't think he can win in florida or arizona.

Klobuchar does expand the map but she has zero support with young people or people in the liberal states.

Dems think the fracking policy is bad but its actually sound policy for votes in the midwest.

As if the liberal states are going to vote Trump.

1) I don't agree that Klobuchar has 0 support in liberal states but...

2) Trump lost Minnesota by only 1.5%

If Amy Klobuchar is elected, that takes Minnesota out of play to the point where time and money doesn't even need to be spent there to defend it. Other candidates may need to defend Minnesota. She's also likely to do much better in the Midwestern toss up states than the other candidates.

Hillary did bad in Minnesota because working class democrats despised her not because she wasn't centrist enough.

Completely untrue. Hillary did poorly in Minnesota because of one issue: Health Care. Any Democrat would've done bad in Minnesota because the ACA was hitting the Middle Class Minnesotans particularly hard. The rates were outrageous.

[We Live in Black and White]

I would have so much fun if Biden ended up 5th. He'll probably do well in rural low educated areas, esp. near the Missouri border.

If the results right now are any indication at all, that very well might end up being the case. I would be s**tting a hole through the crust of the Earth if I were the Biden campaign right now.