PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Calthrina950]

One question I have is what has Oz specifically done to see such a big boost in favorability? I get the narrative that attacks on Fetterman for being a radical Democrat who defunds the police and generally tying him to Biden and whatever may have slightly lowered Fetterman's favorability, but if anything Oz has jsut had more problems that expose his flaws as person such as the puppies.

I think he's had time to consolidate the Republican base after the primary. Frankly, he's very lucky it was in May and not August.

Oz has been campaigning vigorously over the past several months. That cannot be denied. He's traveled across the state and has engaged directly with voters.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1582727447774396417

These voters are going to cost the Democrats next month. I thought that the man in Ohio was particularly reasonable, and he's actually quite similar to me. He identifies with Ryan more, in terms of temperament and background, and doesn't like Vance on a personal level, but he does not approve of the Biden Administration and aligns with Vance more on policy. And I certainly understand why the woman is voting the way she does.

She is concerned about inflation and the economy, and less so about abortion (although it's obvious that she's pro-choice). Polls have indicated that this is true for many other women, who have trended towards Republicans in recent weeks. What these voters show is that the American electorate has a more nuanced view of the two parties than many on this forum do, and are motivated more by issues that directly impact them than issues that don't. This has always been true.

[Calthrina950]

I certainly wish I shared wbrocks's optimism here. Would make it a hell of a lot easier on my blood pressure.

He was this optimistic about Democratic chances in 2020 as well, if I recall. He seems to believe that Democrats are going to sweep the competitive races and outperform the polls on Election Day.

[Calthrina950]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

[Calthrina950]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

Fetterman is still going to overwhelmingly win the black vote, but Oz's campaign has been trying to take advantage of the jogging incident against him. And I've read reports that the Fetterman campaign was concerned about black turnout in Philadelphia specifically.

[Calthrina950]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

Fetterman is still going to overwhelmingly win the black vote, but Oz's campaign has been trying to take advantage of the jogging incident against him. And I've read reports that the Fetterman campaign was concerned about black turnout in Philadelphia specifically.

That's not proof, though. That's what one campaign is doing. If you're going to say something so concretely, please back up with facts and evidence. I'm very open to what you're trying to say, but just back it up. Do you have those reports?

Here's a list of articles addressing what I've said:

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/decision-2022/fetterman-oz-vie-for-black-voters-in-close-pa-senate-race/3387748/

https://www.yahoo.com/video/black-voter-turnout-could-possibly-140052919.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/pennsylvania-midterms-fetterman-oz-black-voters/

Now, I'm not saying that Oz has superior voter outreach than Fetterman. In fact, two of the articles mention a black voter who wasn't sold on Oz's appeals, although they don't particularly approve of Biden and have been contemplating sitting the election out. But what I am saying is that black voter turnout in Philadelphia is crucial to Democratic chances, and if Oz can even depress that turnout somewhat, it will help him.

[Calthrina950]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

By running up the margins in Southeast Philly and Fishtown, not by doing well in Black areas.

Kenyatta probably won the black vote in Philadelphia, but not by enough to defeat Fetterman.

[Calthrina950]

Mentally getting prepared for all the blue avatars to come in here tonight to say that Oz won the debate, it changed the trajectory of the race, and Oz win is now incoming.

Also prepared for the numerous clips on social media when John messes up like 1 word that are going to be made to prove he's "unable" to do the job.

You are going to declare Fetterman the winner of the debate regardless of what happens. So long as Fetterman gets up on stage and doesn't keel over, he'll be seen as the winner. As for Herschel Walker, the expectations for John Fetterman going into tonight are low.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman, like Herschel Walker, has a low bar to meet tonight. If he can hold his own against Oz, he will be viewed as the winner. If Oz is too aggressive with him or attacks him in a manner perceived as "unfair", than Fetterman will be viewed sympathetically. Oz has a tight rope to walk.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman, like Herschel Walker, has a low bar to meet tonight. If he can hold his own against Oz, he will be viewed as the winner. If Oz is too aggressive with him or attacks him in a manner perceived as "unfair", than Fetterman will be viewed sympathetically. Oz has a tight rope to walk.

My impression is that a decisive number of voters in PA have doubts about both candidates, both as to their grasp of the issues, and plans to address them, both as to character issues, and yes, Fetterman's capacity to serve. If one candidate can mitigate the doubts about himself substantially more than the other candidate about themself, I think that is the race.

Yes, I think both candidates have a lot to prove to the voters. Both are flawed candidates.

Oz's task at this point is to finish consolidating the Republican base and to persuade the undecideds (who seem to lean Republican), that he is the Senator who they should elect. He has been hammering Fetterman on crime, and I expect him to continue that tonight. Fetterman needs to articulate why a progressive policy agenda, such as with healthcare and the minimum wage, is the kind of agenda that will advance Pennsylvania forward, and push back against Oz's attacks.

[Calthrina950]

This is what happens when a person with a communication impairment debates someone who has been memorizing lines and delivering them on TV for decades.

For the record - this isn't praise for Oz. He's coming across coldly and is reinforcing what many people don't like about him.

You think Fetterman is going to get a sympathy vote out of this debate?

[Calthrina950]

This is what happens when a person with a communication impairment debates someone who has been memorizing lines and delivering them on TV for decades.

For the record - this isn't praise for Oz. He's coming across coldly and is reinforcing what many people don't like about him.

You think Fetterman is going to get a sympathy vote out of this debate?

It's amazing how Republicans were able to spin that braindead Walker won his debate when Fetterman is doing about the same.

For the record, I don't think Walker did well and was one of those criticizing him, particularly his ill-advised "badge" moment. I'm someone who thinks neither Fetterman nor Walker should be in the Senate. Of course, for those who are very staunch partisans on the left, that's not what they like to hear.

[Calthrina950]

I’m done with this board

Every single moderate, fair person I follow on Twitter is in agreement that fetterman sounds awful

The partisanship required to defend this performance is off the charts

The contrast between this forum and Twitter, or between this forum and elsewhere, is certainly jarring. But the Fetterman-Oz race certainly shows me the depths to which partisans can descend. Just as with Walker, Fetterman has his devoted supporters who would literally crawl over broken glass to vote for him. They would do so even if he were comatose and on a hospital bed, hooked to life support. If it weren't for Oz being so odious and repellent in his own right, this race wouldn't be as close.

[Calthrina950]

I’m done with this board

Every single moderate, fair person I follow on Twitter is in agreement that fetterman sounds awful

The partisanship required to defend this performance is off the charts

*follows a bunch of hack libs on Twitter and is watching the debate through Acyn clips that probably have parts cut out*

"Fetterman is doing great!!!"

This is is what some of y'all on here sound like.

And no, I did not think Walker did well in his debate.

As I said above, many progressive and liberal Democratic users on Twitter are categorically saying that Fetterman is performing poorly, and some are even questioning why his campaign agreed to debate. They're not necessarily praising Oz. But the consensus on both left and right seems to be that Oz is winning this debate.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman talked about his stroke and recovery in a way I think a lot of people, including most persuadables, will sympathize with. But that won't necessarily be enough. There were some *really* rough moments. The abortion comment was a big own goal for Oz (and it reminds me of Trump's foot-in-mouth moments when someone who doesn't really care about abortion misunderstands the internal logic of how his base thinks about it, tries to play along, and sounds like a fool). But people already know he's an arrogant prick. He's been on TV since before many of us were born. So I bet that part is already baked in.

Oz's abortion comment certainly was his worst misstep, although I understand what he was saying. But on balance, Fetterman's missteps probably outweighed Oz's, and it's obvious, between this, the rumors about his wife or some other person being appointed in his place if he wins, and his refusal to release his health records, that Fetterman's health is in worse shape than has been publicly admitted by him.

[Calthrina950]

Oz' answer kind of betrays that he is pro-choice in his heart but he needs to run as a quasi-abortion restrictionist, so he squares the circle with a moderate stance that he hopes won't offend a huge segment of voters.

This is my belief as well, and this is why I believe Oz will be a Generic, Establishment R if he wins. The man was pro-choice for most of his career, and only pivoted rightwards when he ran for political office. He's not going to be an extremist on this issue, and apparently indicated that he wouldn't support a national abortion ban. He was basically stating the primary argument that Dobbs made - to leave the decision to every state.

[Calthrina950]

Obviously Oz won the debate... he spoke clearly and gave multiple specific answers, while making sure to moderate and reach out across the aisle. He did come across as smarmy with his facial expressions, but overall seemed prepared and competent. You have to be a complete and utter hack to say that this debate was a tie.



Here are two of my previous comments on Oz vs Fetterman:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412776.msg8802992#msg8802992

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412776.msg8746939#msg8746939




Compared to when I made these comment, Oz came across far far better than he did before, and Fetterman looks like dogsh!t.

Not just this, but many of Fetterman's staunchest supporters are saying that he actually won the debate and that Oz derived no benefit from it. They believe that voters will sympathize more with Fetterman and will reward him with their votes.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1585348082119897088

Dude can you cool it on posting so many things from literal Democratic operatives? He’s the communications director of the DSCC, his job is to create Democratic biased content.

The forum at least has a pretense of objectivity. It struggles with that already, it doesn’t need to become VoteDem.

His posts are increasingly becoming white noise to me. As I said the other day, Fetterman could be comatose and in a hospital bed, hooked to life support, and Democrats - such as many on this forum - would crawl on their hands and knees over broken glass to vote for him.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1585348082119897088

Dude can you cool it on posting so many things from literal Democratic operatives? He’s the communications director of the DSCC, his job is to create Democratic biased content.

The forum at least has a pretense of objectivity. It struggles with that already, it doesn’t need to become VoteDem.

His posts are increasingly becoming white noise to me. As I said the other day, Fetterman could be comatose and in a hospital bed, hooked to life support, and Democrats - such as many on this forum - would crawl on their hands and knees over broken glass to vote for him.

Obviously Democrats would, this seat decides control of the Senate and we don't want Mitch McConnell to be Majority Leader again.

That makes Democrats no better than Republicans here. Just as Republicans are fully behind Herschel Walker, even in the aftermath of his scandals, so are Democrats fully behind John Fetterman, even with his health struggles. All that matters is power for both political parties.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1585348082119897088

Dude can you cool it on posting so many things from literal Democratic operatives? He’s the communications director of the DSCC, his job is to create Democratic biased content.

The forum at least has a pretense of objectivity. It struggles with that already, it doesn’t need to become VoteDem.

His posts are increasingly becoming white noise to me. As I said the other day, Fetterman could be comatose and in a hospital bed, hooked to life support, and Democrats - such as many on this forum - would crawl on their hands and knees over broken glass to vote for him.

Obviously Democrats would, this seat decides control of the Senate and we don't want Mitch McConnell to be Majority Leader again.

That makes Democrats no better than Republicans here. Just as Republicans are fully behind Herschel Walker, even in the aftermath of his scandals, so are Democrats fully behind John Fetterman, even with his health struggles. All that matters is power for both political parties.

We nominated a decent person who can do the job, it's not at all like Republicans who keep on nominating terrible people like in this very race the known quack and scammer who tortured and killed 329 dogs.

You may have nominated a decent person, but I rather not take a chance on him. I'm not a fan of Oz's either, and I feel sorry for the voters of Pennsylvania.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1585348082119897088

Dude can you cool it on posting so many things from literal Democratic operatives? He’s the communications director of the DSCC, his job is to create Democratic biased content.

The forum at least has a pretense of objectivity. It struggles with that already, it doesn’t need to become VoteDem.

His posts are increasingly becoming white noise to me. As I said the other day, Fetterman could be comatose and in a hospital bed, hooked to life support, and Democrats - such as many on this forum - would crawl on their hands and knees over broken glass to vote for him.

Obviously Democrats would, this seat decides control of the Senate and we don't want Mitch McConnell to be Majority Leader again.

That makes Democrats no better than Republicans here. Just as Republicans are fully behind Herschel Walker, even in the aftermath of his scandals, so are Democrats fully behind John Fetterman, even with his health struggles. All that matters is power for both political parties.

Do you really not see a qualitative difference between Fetterman and Walker?  Fetterman has a health issue that is certainly concering but is hopefully improving.  In other respects he's a decent person and an experienced public servant.  Walker is a serial liar and domestic abuser with zero government experience who clearly lacks the capability to be a Senator.

And before you ask: no, I wouldn't vote for Walker if he was the Democratic nominee.

I don't agree with several of Fetterman's policy positions and generally don't have a favorable view of his background or of his qualifications. I'll acknowledge that Walker is much worse than Fetterman, and I've condemned Walker on a number of occasions before. But I don't think the Senate would be enhanced by the presence of either of them.

[Calthrina950]

Huh, finally an article that is a bit critical of Oz for once!

(but InsiderAdvantage and Co/efficient told me he was winning 25-30% of the black vote )

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1586092995157409796

I've said before that Fetterman will still overwhelmingly win the black vote. The vast majority of black voters are Yellow Dog Democrats who detest the Republican Party and all that it stands for. My uncle is an example of this. Most of us will vote straight-ticket Democratic, as we have for generations, and this year is no different. Republicans have much greater potential for minority gains with Asians and Hispanics.

[Calthrina950]

Clear strategy hear to hit all national TV in the closing days - Fetterman now doing The View today, did CBS News yesterday, CNN the day before

https://twitter.com/TheView/status/1588553809491533826

The View is a publicity platform for Democrats, so I don't think this is going to help Fetterman much aside from his base.

[Calthrina950]

hate to be that guy, but did Fetterman cost Dem's the senate by not dropping out after his stroke? This seat was so winnable, Oz is near unelectable, but then Fetterman's ego messed it all up.

I really don’t think that’s fair. No one, including Fetterman, could have known how his recovery would go at the time. The real mistake was doing the debate. Better to just take the hit of “cowardice.”

I think it’s fair. Lamb seemed like the establishment type that midterms tend to resent but however in this case Lamb would be well ahead IMO

I don’t see any reason Lamb would or should be the replacement nominee. More likely they would find a stronger candidate capable of generating enthusiasm among the large majority who voted for Fetterman, presumably with Fetterman’s own consent.

Who would that have been? Cartwright?

[Calthrina950]

hate to be that guy, but did Fetterman cost Dem's the senate by not dropping out after his stroke? This seat was so winnable, Oz is near unelectable, but then Fetterman's ego messed it all up.

I really don’t think that’s fair. No one, including Fetterman, could have known how his recovery would go at the time. The real mistake was doing the debate. Better to just take the hit of “cowardice.”

I think it’s fair. Lamb seemed like the establishment type that midterms tend to resent but however in this case Lamb would be well ahead IMO

I don’t see any reason Lamb would or should be the replacement nominee. More likely they would find a stronger candidate capable of generating enthusiasm among the large majority who voted for Fetterman, presumably with Fetterman’s own consent.

Who would that have been? Cartwright?

No way Cartwright would've generated more enthusiasm than Fetterman. It seems that the only PA Democrat with a more dedicated built in base than Fetterman is Shapiro.

Then who would have replaced Shapiro as the gubernatorial nominee? At this point, obviously, it's too late for a change to be made, and if Fetterman wins tomorrow - which I would give about a 50/50 shot of happening - we'll have to see how his recovery continues to proceed, and if talk of a replacement intensifies. Shapiro will almost certainly win at this point, and has probably already begun to think about potential alternatives to Fetterman if he has to make that decision.