PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh, come on.  Anyone who was not going to vote for Fetterman due to affirmative action but wasn't going to turn out, isn't going to be pushed to turn out by Oprah's endorsement.  You're REALLY reaching for that one.

[citizenZ]

Oh, come on.  Anyone who was not going to vote for Fetterman due to affirmative action but wasn't going to turn out, isn't going to be pushed to turn out by Oprah's endorsement.  You're REALLY reaching for that one.

Oprah doesn't have the same influence of 15 years ago. Plus, it's a midterm. It ain't the same as when Barack Obama was on the ballot.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Could help boost white male turnout here in PA.

How?

Some white male voters could get tired of the racial politics of the Democratic Party. You're seeing ads like this:

https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1587645902730280961
I think this issue could also become more relevant when the Supreme Court overturns Affirmative Action.

Looks like something Jared Taylor would be sh!tting out, but I guess Stephen Miller is just a step ahead of him.

Why did you bring this up when Oprah didn't say a word about affirmative action in her endorsement?

[citizenZ]

Could help boost white male turnout here in PA.

How?

Some white male voters could get tired of the racial politics of the Democratic Party. You're seeing ads like this:

https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1587645902730280961
I think this issue could also become more relevant when the Supreme Court overturns Affirmative Action.

Looks like something Jared Taylor would be sh!tting out, but I guess Stephen Miller is just a step ahead of him.

Why did you bring this up when Oprah didn't say a word about affirmative action in her endorsement?

Because I can.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

[citizenZ]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

Real nice language coming from a "hero".

[Kamala's side hoe]

Affirmative Action is toxic to the Asian community, even for Asians who lean left, so the issue being brought up is not a good thing for Dems.

This fact has nothing to do with the Stephen Miller ad citizenZ posted.

I don't see how the pending SCOTUS ruling will help, given that affirmative action in college admissions massively benefits domestic White applicants at the expense of domestic Asian applicants.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

Real nice language coming from a "hero".

I figure you go to hell on earth on the other side of the world to fight for this country and your buddies die right beside you, you have sure as hell earned the freedom to drop a few four letter words. I cannot stand prudes!

[citizenZ]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

Real nice language coming from a "hero".

I figure you go to hell on earth on the other side of the world to fight for this country you have sure as hell earned the freedom to drop a few four letter words. I cannot stand prudes!

It's just not appropriate for an ad. I know Fetterman isn't thinking for himself picking out ads, but if they think it's "edgy" or something, they're wrong. It's just offensive.

I know the whole "I live in my moms basement and smoke weed" vote is critical to his less likely victory, but you don't have to be vulgar.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

Real nice language coming from a "hero".

Trump supporters, of all people, have no place criticizing others on this front...

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

Real nice language coming from a "hero".

I figure you go to hell on earth on the other side of the world to fight for this country you have sure as hell earned the freedom to drop a few four letter words. I cannot stand prudes!

It's just not appropriate for an ad. I know Fetterman isn't thinking for himself picking out ads, but if they think it's "edgy" or something, they're wrong. It's just offensive.

I know the whole "I live in my moms basement and smoke weed" vote is critical to his less likely victory, but you don't have to be vulgar.

The sort of people like that guy in the ad are about as far as you can get from the "live in my moms basement and smoke weed" types. I would know, I've worked with a bunch of those crazy motherf--kers and I've lived in a ski town full of wooks.

Most people are not prissy, uptight holy rollers who swoon when they hear someone say damn or hell! Especially not in Pennsylvania!

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

Real nice language coming from a "hero".

I figure you go to hell on earth on the other side of the world to fight for this country you have sure as hell earned the freedom to drop a few four letter words. I cannot stand prudes!

It's just not appropriate for an ad. I know Fetterman isn't thinking for himself picking out ads, but if they think it's "edgy" or something, they're wrong. It's just offensive.

I know the whole "I live in my moms basement and smoke weed" vote is critical to his less likely victory, but you don't have to be vulgar.

Now let's turn to the guy endorsed by President "grab em by the pussy", "get that son of a bitch off the field", "bomb the sh**t out of them", "the election was bullsh**t"

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

Real nice language coming from a "hero".

I figure you go to hell on earth on the other side of the world to fight for this country and your buddies die right beside you, you have sure as hell earned the freedom to drop a few four letter words. I cannot stand prudes!

Not just that, but Oz certainly has some nerve to try and pull the whole "i dont want extremism on both sides" when he is literally campaigning with Donald Trump and Doug Mastriano tomorrow night.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/RobTornoe/status/1588360004364443648

Real nice language coming from a "hero".

I figure you go to hell on earth on the other side of the world to fight for this country you have sure as hell earned the freedom to drop a few four letter words. I cannot stand prudes!

It's just not appropriate for an ad. I know Fetterman isn't thinking for himself picking out ads, but if they think it's "edgy" or something, they're wrong. It's just offensive.

I know the whole "I live in my moms basement and smoke weed" vote is critical to his less likely victory, but you don't have to be vulgar.

Now let's turn to the guy endorsed by President "grab em by the pussy", "get that son of a bitch off the field", "bomb the sh**t out of them", "the election was bullsh**t"

Don't forget "sh**tholes"!

[wbrocks67]

I don't think there's a race this year perplexing me as much as this one. The trendline in polls here and nationally pretty clearly are pointing to an Oz victory, and suggesting otherwise I think would be partisan hackery.

That being said, given those same trendlines, you would expect Oz to have hit 50% somewhere by now. Even the Republican-aligned pollsters aren't getting him past 48%, and the "high quality" nonpartisan polls are even still showing him in the mid-40's. Obviously Republicans rely heavily on consolidating undecided voters, but given how rapidly the environment has deteriorated for Democrats over the course of September and especially October in addition to the heavy coverage of Fetterman's stroke and the onslaught of GOP outside group spending, I do think it is a sign of serious weakness that there hasn't been even a partisan outlet that's shown him at majority support yet.

The culprit could very well be Oz's dismal favorability rating preventing that real pull-away from happening. I maintain that Fetterman is performing exactly where one could expect a generic Dem to be and that he doesn't have any unique appeal or strength that many think he does because of the way he looks. So perhaps the question boils down to whether or not a generic Democrat beats a flawed Republican in this climate. The governor race is likely showing us what strong D vs. flawed R looks like, so it's an imperfect comparison at best. And even if Oz does struggle more than usual for a Republican with that final undecided batch, his 48% could certainly still be enough to win if they choose to sit the race out.

Make no mistake, I'd rather be Oz right now. But I'm going back and forth on how strongly I feel that way.

Also possible that I will press "post" and an Oz at 50% poll will promptly be published.

This seems prescient now that Trafalgar also can only find Oz at 47.7%.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1587979072516378626
If this holds true, I was right about Fetterman massively underperforming in the Philly suburbs among "country club" republicans Romney Biden voters types.

How many ing people do you think actually belong to country clubs? Go to Bensalem or Levittown please. You'll find more abandoned parking lots than golf courses.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1587979072516378626
If this holds true, I was right about Fetterman massively underperforming in the Philly suburbs among "country club" republicans Romney Biden voters types.

How many ing people do you think actually belong to country clubs? Go to Bensalem or Levittown please. You'll find more abandoned parking lots than golf courses.

IIRC, Geck was primarily referring to Chester County-ites. 

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, I'm sure it's a pretty small sample size and caveats since it's across 4 counties, but the RV for "Philadelphia Suburbs" in the Marist poll was Fetterman +14, 56-42.

Biden won them by 19, 59.5-40.5 in 2020. Depends how the last 2% shake out, but Fetterman slightly underperforming Biden and Oz slightly outperforming Trump.

The Philly sample is small too I'm sure but it has Fetterman 83-10 in Philly (it was Biden 81-18 in 2020)

[wbrocks67]

Clear strategy hear to hit all national TV in the closing days - Fetterman now doing The View today, did CBS News yesterday, CNN the day before

https://twitter.com/TheView/status/1588553809491533826

[Pollster]

Clear strategy hear to hit all national TV in the closing days - Fetterman now doing The View today, did CBS News yesterday, CNN the day before

https://twitter.com/TheView/status/1588553809491533826

Not sure if this is strategy or trying to reassure skittish suburbanites that he is healthy/can speak.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Probably a little bit of both. Seems fine.

[Calthrina950]

Clear strategy hear to hit all national TV in the closing days - Fetterman now doing The View today, did CBS News yesterday, CNN the day before

https://twitter.com/TheView/status/1588553809491533826

The View is a publicity platform for Democrats, so I don't think this is going to help Fetterman much aside from his base.

[Dani Rose]

Clear strategy hear to hit all national TV in the closing days - Fetterman now doing The View today, did CBS News yesterday, CNN the day before

https://twitter.com/TheView/status/1588553809491533826

The View is a publicity platform for Democrats, so I don't think this is going to help Fetterman much aside from his base.

I think it's a solid way for him to assure some shaky suburbanites, like someone said above me. This is the exact thing that appeals to Fetterman's weakest part of the current Democratic base.

[The Dowager Mod]

All of us old timers got it. lol 
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1588611188631666689

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All of us old timers got it. lol  
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1588611188631666689

This ad is endearing.
Btw, could anyone fill me on this Steelers stuff?