Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some of the previous tweets from that account were talking about comparing turnout to the 2021 gubernatorial race, which seems weird to me.

Wouldn't we expect turnout to equal or surpass the gubernatorial election anyway?

But not Presidential Levels.
The General Guideline in all elections that I have witnessed is:
Unpopular Government + High Turnout = Change.

Ayy sixteen pages in and we have our first newbie

Welcome, friend. 

Welcome to the forum!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Was that a server upgrade?

I hope so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1590082583626326016?s=21&t=2_eHKf...

STOP THE COUNT

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ForzaAzzurri112/status/1590069299971883008

It was an open seat, it seems? That made an R flip much easier, provided that happens...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why are people voting for a year and a half of absolutely no government (nobody will pass a budget) and useless impeachment attempts on Biden?

🙄

Move along, the adults are having a talk.

About how Guam is entirely representative of the national environment and that Barnes/Masters is a possible outcome?

"Guam allegedly fits the national mood" was not on my bingo card for Atlas on Election Day, not gonna lie...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OPEN THE ATLAS PREDICTIONS PAGE AGAIN

I thought I still had time to update my gubernatorial map

It was 3 PM Eastern time. I slept in at 7 AM and ran out of time to get even a gubernatorial prediction in.
Sad.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Won’t be long until we get some meltdowns in here over useless exit polls that we tell ourselves every year we aren’t going to look at anymore!

Us on election night before polls close is normal people watching the super bowl if they somehow had a feed an hour early but it only had 10 pixels.

And we wouldn't have it any other way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My heart will be leaping in so much joy when I see all the Demonrats signing up for Psychotherapy after tonight. Reality and realization you need to humble up will be less than 24 hours away!!!!

Demonrats? Bro this forum might not be for you. We do require a brain in order to post.

We should crowd-fund EastwoodS to get a mirror...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

All true.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

Yeah nationally the congressional map is more balanced, and also Dems just have a better vote distribution. In 2010, the only seats truly safe for them were inner-city often heavily black or Hispanic seats. Nowadays, they have quite a few suburban seats that help pad their floor that a decade ago prolly would've gone R in this type of environment (CO-06, TX-07, TX-32, CA-06, GA-07, NC-14, MI-11, ect, ect.

At the same time though, Rs also have a bit of a higher floor due to poalrization in rural areas.

Most of the older voters propping up the scores of rural Ds that existed pre-2010 are now dead. We'd have a generational replacement in rural America.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The suggestion that Johnson is somehow in trouble can only be described as blatant hopium..

Doesn't all the WI early voting data, turnout reports, and recent polling suggest he's in trouble?  If he were a Democrat in the exact same position, at least half this forum would claim he's DOA.

(A lot of ) the forum seems to think incumbency helps protect incumbent Rs, but incumbent Ds don't benefit from it at all.
It's wack.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Polls haven’t closed yet….why are people dooming so much?

Felis TalkElectionsAtlasus is a species that boldly declares their candidate will prevail by a huge margin and flip opposition strongholds, and then makes conclusions based off premature Twitter rumors and frets at the earliest sight of a landslide for the party they don't support. It's just in their DNA.
You just gotta understand...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590091105839611906

Not saying this is actually good news for Dems or anything, but that amounts to <7% of the 2020 vote, so there's still a lot of room for earlys + late voters to make an impact.

Yeah. It'll be a long night.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is as far as I go. I'm unplugging from election for the night. I tried as long as I could, but I no longer feel that I can go on.

See you on the other side.

Best of luck man!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/SidKhurana3607/status/1590105089863475200

Huh, abortion is actually higher than I would've though it'd be (if pressed, I would've thought crime and abortion would've been swapped considering how much those awful Citizens for Sanity ads have been running). 

Yeah, I'm surprised to see abortion that high.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CNN exit poll has Biden 45% approve 54% disapprove.

The bar is real low but that is not as bad as I had feared.

Exactly the same approve disapprove as Trump in the 2018 exit poll.

I wonder if they will have a Fav/Unfav question about Trump in the exits.

It would be cool if they did.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/SidKhurana3607/status/1590105089863475200

Ah, so it turns out the abortion issue didn't go away! Who'd have thought!

27% is literally the dem base lol.

Woo! 73-27 GOP popular vote incoming!

inb4 R gain MD-05

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

27% listing abortion as their most important issue makes me think the exit polls shared the problem of contacting too many high information white progressives that the horse race polls did

Welcome to the forum!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This poll is obviously bunk if those are the racial figures they got (unless they lumped all white hispanics under white).

"White Latinos counted as White" was immediately what I thought when seeing those figures.
It's just illogical...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Exit polls aren’t terrible

Exit polls are meaningless, at least early vote data is concrete data.

They are *a* piece of the puzzle. Anyone considering them the whole story is a fool.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Okay but based Virginia Beach now? Were the early DOA results a little much now?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1590107558190383105?s=46&t=v3Ttg5tDPrsmHA...

I hope you stay on here all night with us.

Likewise.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm suddenly not seeing the New button on any threads.  Anyone else seeing this?

I think Virginia's removing some features to keep the forum up and running with so many users online.

I guess that's the likeliest explanation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

FOX's voter analysis has the Supreme Court at 51% approval.  That has to be a good sign for Republicans.

That's a bit lower than I would expect. The NYT/AP exit polls from 2020 said that 62% of voters were confident that the Supreme Court could be fair and impartial in their decisions (obviously not the same thing as overall approval, but it's the closest similar question in those surveys). While I agree that 51% approval is good news for the GOP overall, it could also be a sign that a growing number of left-wingers have become more disapproving of SCOTUS.

SC approvals dropped a lot in the last year, 51% may actually be high.

That could be quite true. On the other hand, SCOTUS is still the most popular between the Presidency, Congress, and Scotus, so that might be decent enough.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590110542899064832

"And when the world needed him most, he vanished"

Wasserman: the hero we needed, but not the hero we deserved.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think I'm just going to go offline until, like 8 PM. The first hour or two of results is rarely helpful in figuring things out and honestly I'd rather be doing literally anything other than adding to my stress in that way.

Best of luck man! I wish you the best!