Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Friendly reminder to keep it civil, folks.

Can I still chuck bite-sized 3-Muskateers at khuzifenq's head later tonight?

My favorite candy bar, excellent.

CNN exit polls are quite something. Biden’s approvals are surprisingly high even though everything else on the screen suggest a modest R wave.

...no no, you can't just....stop, you don't get be *okay* with me throwing candy at your head. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Exit polls aren’t terrible

Exit polls are meaningless, at least early vote data is concrete data.

They are *a* piece of the puzzle. Anyone considering them the whole story is a fool.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PresidentBlumph/status/1590107735777214465?t=LWWD34OWCdCLb6w...

How does that square with Trump favorability?

It squares with exit polls are still junk lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both Dave Wasserman and Sean Trende are hinting on Twitter about a possible upset in FL-23 based on what they're seeing in the early vote numbers.

I wonder if FL-22 could also be closer than expected? Perhaps FL-09 as well?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Okay but based Virginia Beach now? Were the early DOA results a little much now?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1590107558190383105?s=46&t=v3Ttg5tDPrsmHA...

Youngkin won this district by like 8 points on that night didn’t he? Matching 2021 is enough

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Okay but based Virginia Beach now? Were the early DOA results a little much now?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1590107558190383105?s=46&t=v3Ttg5tDPrsmHA...

I hope you stay on here all night with us.

Likewise.

[It’s so Joever]

Pre-August I had FL-09 as a flip. Wouldn’t be too shocked if it goes.

[Agafin]

I'm starting to think the CNN numbers are only for ED. Can the overall electorate really be 9 points whiter than 2020? That seems unlikely.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm starting to think the CNN numbers are only for ED. Can the overall electorate really be 9 points whiter than 2020? That seems unlikely.

I mean it is a midterm.

[Lief 🗽]

In case you thought the early exists were anywhere near real:

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1590108766661677056

[Aurelius]

Both Dave Wasserman and Sean Trende are hinting on Twitter about a possible upset in FL-23 based on what they're seeing in the early vote numbers.

Love to see it. Good luck Moscow Moskovitz, you'll need it!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm starting to think the CNN numbers are only for ED. Can the overall electorate really be 9 points whiter than 2020? That seems unlikely.

Exit polls supposedly include a component of early voters.

[MillennialModerate]

Okay but based Virginia Beach now? Were the early DOA results a little much now?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1590107558190383105?s=46&t=v3Ttg5tDPrsmHA...

Dooming OVER? ? ? ?

NEVER!!!

[RI]

I'm starting to think the CNN numbers are only for ED. Can the overall electorate really be 9 points whiter than 2020? That seems unlikely.

No, they surveyed early voters/mail voters as well.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/PresidentBlumph/status/1590107735777214465?t=LWWD34OWCdCLb6w...

How does that square with Trump favorability?

Trump was at 38/60 in favs in the 2016 exit poll, IIRC.

[RI]

In case you thought the early exists were anywhere near real:

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1590108766661677056

The only way this sample isn't extremely overeducated is if they count associate's degrees as college degrees, which they haven't in the past.

[wbrocks67]

It oddly doesn't appear that the exits offered any form of "Democracy" to the pressing issues?

Abortion being at 27% shuoldn't be odd for anyone. Even if it bounces around a little higher or lower, when asked how important it is "to your vote", it's generally been higher.

It's been lower on questions like "what is the most pressing issue facing the country". Wording matters.

[Unelectable Bystander]

It’s like they randomly sampled white liberals only lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm suddenly not seeing the New button on any threads.  Anyone else seeing this?

[Crumpets]

Both Dave Wasserman and Sean Trende are hinting on Twitter about a possible upset in FL-23 based on what they're seeing in the early vote numbers.

Lol, I was nervous for a second before I remembered who that is. That would be very funny.

[TheReckoning]

I just don't understand how the democrats loosing a federal office they've held for almost 30 years isn't a bad sign and indicative of a very republican enviorment. Swings in seats considered safe can be random especially small ones. The texas 27th district had a pretty random swing uncorrelated with the national enviorment, but that doesn't mean if the republicans took the district it would be a catastrophic sign for the democrats.

Honestly, I think accepting the results now is the best way forward. That way you're prepared to recive them when they come and if you turn out to be wrong you just get a pleasant suprise instead of dread.

I think we all know that it's going to be a bad night, it's just that the results for a non-voting delegate in Guam (especially when Democrats did well in other races there) aren't a sign of it.

Why would Republicans winning be “bad”?

[Lief 🗽]

Some corroboration of that random guy on Twitter posting Philadelphia numbers from an actual election official:

https://twitter.com/candynotcandace/status/1590109286977658880

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So this is how democracy dies...

With a CNN exit poll.

[Gracile]

FOX's voter analysis has the Supreme Court at 51% approval.  That has to be a good sign for Republicans.

That's a bit lower than I would expect. The NYT/AP exit polls from 2020 said that 62% of voters were confident that the Supreme Court could be fair and impartial in their decisions (obviously not the same thing as overall approval, but it's the closest similar question in those surveys). While I agree that 51% approval is good news for the GOP overall, it could also be a sign that a growing number of left-wingers have become more disapproving of SCOTUS.

[Brittain33]

Disappeared for me about 10 minutes ago. I assumed it was a high traffic measure.