Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[bilaps]

73k in Clark. Waiting for breakdown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

Yeah nationally the congressional map is more balanced, and also Dems just have a better vote distribution. In 2010, the only seats truly safe for them were inner-city often heavily black or Hispanic seats. Nowadays, they have quite a few suburban seats that help pad their floor that a decade ago prolly would've gone R in this type of environment (CO-06, TX-07, TX-32, CA-06, GA-07, NC-14, MI-11, ect, ect.

At the same time though, Rs also have a bit of a higher floor due to poalrization in rural areas.

How is GA-07 looking, btw? Haven't heard much about it recently (also asking because CB is in my top fifteen favorite Dems, second in GA only behind Lucy McBath).  

I think you may be behind the Georgia news.  Redistricting made the 7th much more D and the 6th (my new district) much more R, so McBath moved over to the 7th and defeated Bourdeaux in the primary.  It's Safe D for McBath.  The only competitive district remaining in Georgia is the 2nd.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The suggestion that Johnson is somehow in trouble can only be described as blatant hopium..

Doesn't all the WI early voting data, turnout reports, and recent polling suggest he's in trouble?  If he were a Democrat in the exact same position, at least half this forum would claim he's DOA.

[oldtimer]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

Biden won VA-10 by 19%.
If that goes, how can Democrats hold the Mid-West where Biden won by a few thousand votes ?

At that point my attention would shift to New York.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

Yeah nationally the congressional map is more balanced, and also Dems just have a better vote distribution. In 2010, the only seats truly safe for them were inner-city often heavily black or Hispanic seats. Nowadays, they have quite a few suburban seats that help pad their floor that a decade ago prolly would've gone R in this type of environment (CO-06, TX-07, TX-32, CA-06, GA-07, NC-14, MI-11, ect, ect.

At the same time though, Rs also have a bit of a higher floor due to poalrization in rural areas.

How is GA-07 looking, btw? Haven't heard much about it recently (also asking because CB is in my top fifteen favorite Dems, second in GA only behind Lucy McBath).  

Safe D, and it might even be bluer than 2020 given how rapidly the district is changing. This district voted for Romney but that would be impossible today unless you had a time machine which ruins the point. It was nearly Biden + 30.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The suggestion that Johnson is somehow in trouble can only be described as blatant hopium..

Doesn't all the WI early voting data, turnout reports, and recent polling suggest he's in trouble?  If he were a Democrat in the exact same position, at least half this forum would claim he's DOA.

(A lot of ) the forum seems to think incumbency helps protect incumbent Rs, but incumbent Ds don't benefit from it at all.
It's wack.

[EastwoodS]

My heart will be leaping in so much joy when I see all the Demonrats signing up for Psychotherapy after tonight. Reality and realization you need to humble up will be less than 24 hours away!!!!

Demonrats? Bro this forum might not be for you. We do require a brain in order to post.

We should crowd-fund EastwoodS to get a mirror...

Stay mad that you all are losing

Have you accepted Trump's loss yet?

I moved on from Trump in November 2020, bro😂

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm cautious with Nevada cause the new Mail drop-box law and other factors might make it hard even for seasoned analysts to tell the election. Honestly i'm going to go bash my head against VLSI design, it seems less stressfull than this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Friendly reminder to keep it civil, folks.

[jamestroll]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

Biden won VA-10 by 19%.
If that goes, how can Democrats hold the Mid-West where Biden won by a few thousand votes ?

At that point my attention would shift to New York.

VA-10 is not a normal district.

I had a nervous breakdown on this site back in the spring about people calling it safe D.

Virginia. 10th. District. Is. Not. Safe. D.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

Biden won VA-10 by 19%.
If that goes, how can Democrats hold the Mid-West where Biden won by a few thousand votes ?

At that point my attention would shift to New York.

VA-10 is not a normal district.

I had a nervous breakdown on this site back in the spring about people calling it safe D.

Virginia. 10th. District. Is. Not. Safe. D.

Die on this hill, but I will come back and requote this post.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I'm cautious with Nevada cause the new Mail drop-box law and other factors might make it hard even for seasoned analysts to tell the election. Honestly i'm going to go bash my head against VLSI design, it seems less stressfull than this.

I'd hold off on making too many hot takes about NV until later today if not this week for that reason. Laxalt is probably still favored, but despite good ED rural turnout it's premature to say he has it in the bag.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

The suggestion that Johnson is somehow in trouble can only be described as blatant hopium..

Doesn't all the WI early voting data, turnout reports, and recent polling suggest he's in trouble?  If he were a Democrat in the exact same position, at least half this forum would claim he's DOA.

Recent polling.. lmao ?

The last poll released had him up 6 points and literally I've yet to see evidence of this early voting data.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Polls haven’t closed yet….why are people dooming so much?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Friendly reminder to keep it civil, folks.

Can I still chuck bite-sized 3-Muskateers at khuzifenq's head later tonight?

[bilaps]

73k in Clark. Waiting for breakdown.

+16,3k Reps

[Lief 🗽]

Polls haven’t closed yet….why are people dooming so much?

Because some states report turnout throughout the day by party registration and we are seeing in real time that Republican turnout is swamping Democratic turnout.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Friendly reminder to keep it civil, folks.

Can I still chuck bite-sized 3-Muskateers at khuzifenq's head later tonight?

No.  That's a terrible waste of chocolate!

[Buzz]

Polls haven’t closed yet….why are people dooming so much?

It’s Atlas on Election Day

[jamestroll]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

Biden won VA-10 by 19%.
If that goes, how can Democrats hold the Mid-West where Biden won by a few thousand votes ?

At that point my attention would shift to New York.

VA-10 is not a normal district.

I had a nervous breakdown on this site back in the spring about people calling it safe D.

Virginia. 10th. District. Is. Not. Safe. D.

Die on this hill, but I will come back and requote this post.

That would be fine with me. Everyone gets something wrong. If I am wrong I am wrong.

And I was too busy IRL to pay granular attention this year to the elections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Polls haven’t closed yet….why are people dooming so much?

Felis TalkElectionsAtlasus is a species that boldly declares their candidate will prevail by a huge margin and flip opposition strongholds, and then makes conclusions based off premature Twitter rumors and frets at the earliest sight of a landslide for the party they don't support. It's just in their DNA.
You just gotta understand...

[new_patomic]

In actual news

https://twitter.com/MaryJoOlaTV/status/1590099875370536961?s=20&t=GwhlgElCPU...

We could expect Milwaukee mail ballots to report by ~11 PM CST

[Lief 🗽]

NoVA on track for a 2021 redux

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1590098945581404162

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Polls haven’t closed yet….why are people dooming so much?

It's less stressful than trying to be optimisitic as the turnout data comes in.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590101032939315206?cxt=HHwWjICjld-dlp...