AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Zenobiyl]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1544832049101488128

Except the GOP doesn’t want to improve early voting. They want it ended so the meme doesn’t work

From his perspective that is an improvement

[wbrocks67]

Mark Kelly raises $13.6M in Q2

https://twitter.com/anthonyadragna/status/1547211453991735296?s=21&t=Mfj_0XBpc-ss4xSKWtRLng

[wbrocks67]

Mark Kelly raises $13.6M in Q2

https://twitter.com/anthonyadragna/status/1547211453991735296?s=21&t=Mfj_0XBpc-ss4xSKWtRLng

and his opponents - yikes

Blake Masters - $827K
Jim Lamon - $1.2M ($1M of his own)
Mark Bronvich - $527K

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1548249380943118336

[goin bezerk]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AriBradshawAZ/status/1549775393455886337

[wbrocks67]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

[SnowLabrador]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

To be fair, isn't that the standard GOP position now? Quite frankly, some Republican politicians like John Bennett have called for murdering Fauci.

Of course, that doesn't make it okay. It's appalling that a man who's done nothing but try to keep people safe during a pandemic is facing so many death threats. I'm just saying that this isn't an extreme position relative to other Republicans.

[xavier110]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

I really don’t know how he’s gonna run away from this stuff in the 2-3 months post primary

[Utah Neolib]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

Not like I’m saying any one statement will doom Masters, but it seems like he doesn’t even care about seeming electable in the GE.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Masters and Lake are losing anyways, I am watching MSNBC now, they won't win

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

Not like I’m saying any one statement will doom Masters, but it seems like he doesn’t even care about seeming electable in the GE.

This is one of the huge differences between the 2018 and 2022 midterms and it's yet to see how it'll play out. In 2018 Democrats tried to run relatively moderate or at least mainstream Dems in most key races whereas Rs are running mostly loyalists.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

Yes. He's still a better candidate than Oz and Walker

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

[Cyrusman]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

What makes Masters stronger than McSally and don’t you think Masters will turn off moderate Republicans in Maricopa county?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

What makes Masters stronger than McSally and don’t you think Masters will turn off moderate Republicans in Maricopa county?

Because McSally became a meme. If the first thing people know about you is 'lost two elections in two years' you don't have much room to redefine yourself.

[Ferguson97]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

What makes Masters stronger than McSally and don’t you think Masters will turn off moderate Republicans in Maricopa county?

Because McSally became a meme. If the first thing people know about you is 'lost two elections in two years' you don't have much room to redefine yourself.

That doesn't explain her losses though. When she ran in 2018 she hadn't lost at all and when she lost in 2020 she only lost once.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

What makes Masters stronger than McSally and don’t you think Masters will turn off moderate Republicans in Maricopa county?

Because McSally became a meme. If the first thing people know about you is 'lost two elections in two years' you don't have much room to redefine yourself.

That doesn't explain her losses though. When she ran in 2018 she hadn't lost at all and when she lost in 2020 she only lost once.

Oddly, she lost both races by almost the exact same margin in percentage terms.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

What makes Masters stronger than McSally and don’t you think Masters will turn off moderate Republicans in Maricopa county?

Martha McSally's campaign was a complete desperation play. She was mailing out Mark Kelly space station CCP motion cards, I wanted her to win but it was pure desperation and anyone could tell. Mark Kelly had no voting record too, so it was really hard to attack him. What made matters worse, is that she literally lost the 2018 Senate race and was appointed to the office just weeks later. There is no real incumbent advantage if you were appointed to the position.

Now that Kelly has an actual record, (and it isn't a moderate one), it is much easier to attack him especially with inflation out of control and a border crisis happening. Masters also brings his own ideas to the table (being able to raise a family with a single income). As for the suburbs, he hasn't really said anything that extreme. Most people do not like Fauci, illegal immigrants, crime. His comments might be a bit rough, but these are the same suburbs that elected Trump in 2016 and barely voted Biden in 2020, it's not like he is running in NOVA.

That doesn't explain her losses though. When she ran in 2018 she hadn't lost at all and when she lost in 2020 she only lost once.

Her 2018 campaign wasn't that bad, I think she would have won if it was a better year for the GOP. Sinema had an iffy record in the past and McSally's ads focused on her military career. In 2020 though it just fell apart for her.

[wbrocks67]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

What makes Masters stronger than McSally and don’t you think Masters will turn off moderate Republicans in Maricopa county?

Martha McSally's campaign was a complete desperation play. She was mailing out Mark Kelly space station CCP motion cards, I wanted her to win but it was pure desperation and anyone could tell. Mark Kelly had no voting record too, so it was really hard to attack him. What made matters worse, is that she literally lost the 2018 Senate race and was appointed to the office just weeks later. There is no real incumbent advantage if you were appointed to the position.

Now that Kelly has an actual record, (and it isn't a moderate one), it is much easier to attack him especially with inflation out of control and a border crisis happening. Masters also brings his own ideas to the table (being able to raise a family with a single income). As for the suburbs, he hasn't really said anything that extreme. Most people do not like Fauci, illegal immigrants, crime. His comments might be a bit rough, but these are the same suburbs that elected Trump in 2016 and barely voted Biden in 2020, it's not like he is running in NOVA.

That doesn't explain her losses though. When she ran in 2018 she hadn't lost at all and when she lost in 2020 she only lost once.

Her 2018 campaign wasn't that bad, I think she would have won if it was a better year for the GOP. Sinema had an iffy record in the past and McSally's ads focused on her military career. In 2020 though it just fell apart for her.

But the AZ suburbs are still trending blue, aren't they? And Masters is easily more extreme than McSally ever was.

[lfromnj]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

If he loses its going to be because of privatizing SS.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It is looking more and more that this is a race similar to Ohio and Pennsylvania where it is a divided field, and the winner will probably get in the 30-40% range.

[MargieCat]

I just got back from Scottsdale 2 days ago.

From the telelvison ads and street signs, it seems like Brnovich is not even in the race. Lots of commercials and signs for Lamon, Masters, and McGuire.

Brnovich did not attend the most recent debate either. It's like his campaign just went dormant.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown wasn't at 50 percent in 2012 he was polling like Ryan and he wound up winning 52/46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Survey USA 10/29/12 Brown 46/41 v Josh Mandel and now it's Ryan 46/41 v Vance, I don't think Ryan is gonna win by 6 but 51/49

Users must remember there are 300 K Provision ballots especially in OH in 2004 Kerry cut a 300 K Bush W lead to 150K with Edwards if it was GEPHARDT he would of closed it

GEPHARDT, Clark, Strickland and Ryan are pragmatism

[wbrocks67]

Masters continues with the 2020 election denying.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1553066033279389703

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The NYT smearjob continues against Blake.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1553108144397713409

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1553112032433410048

Apparently calling out Democrats for encouraging illegal immigration is now a white supremacist stance.