Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Cassius]

At this rate the Ukrainians are probably going to get boxed in inside Kiev and in the Donbas (with a few other cities possibly holding out too), which will be a serious complication as far as resupply is concerned and will render Western promises of equipment essentially moot. Nonetheless, given the speed at which things are happening in terms of the broader political situation (both in the West and in Russia), if they hold out for long enough Russia may be forced to the negotiating table, particularly if things start getting hairy as far the Russian financial system goes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

The terrain of Ukraine is as flat as the American Midwest (North European Plain, remember), and that allows for an army built like the Russians to advance pretty quickly...if they want to. At least, the terrain is permitting for that sort of thing.

Mostly yes. The eastern 2/3 is very flat. The western 1/3 has scattered hills, valleys, and ravines. And the far western 2-3% of the territory is tucked behind 6,000 ft high mountains, creating a nice natural fortress.

That's partly what I'm getting at actually. Ukraine has its own version of the Driftless (quite hilly terrain and all), but it's mostly flat.
The only really major thing that it has that the Midwest really doesn't an equivalent of, is the Carpathians.

[Person Man]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

The terrain of Ukraine is as flat as the American Midwest (North European Plain, remember), and that allows for an army built like the Russians to advance pretty quickly...if they want to. At least, the terrain is permitting for that sort of thing.

Mostly yes. The eastern 2/3 is very flat. The western 1/3 has scattered hills, valleys, and ravines. And the far western 2-3% of the territory is tucked behind 6,000 ft high mountains, creating a nice natural fortress.

That's partly what I'm getting at actually. Ukraine has its own version of the Driftless (quite hilly terrain and all), but it's mostly flat.
The only really major thing that it has that the Midwest really doesn't an equivalent of, is the Carpathians.

I guess Ohio borders West Virginia?

[President Johnson]

Some more details are coming out about the third sanction package the EU is working on. Apparently, it's not only an exclusion of Swift, EU also seeks to freeze all foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Central Bank and oligarchs, making their money worthless. This is definitely big stuff.

(I'm sorry this is in German, just couldn't find a report in English that quick).

https://twitter.com/markuspreiss/status/1497657994120773632

[Omega21]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

[NOVA Green]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Haven't seen anything confirmed on that, although Russia did destroy a dam that was built in 2014 to block off water to Crimea earlier today.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-26/russian-troops-destroy-ukrainian-dam-that-blocked-water-to-crimea-ria

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

If there’s a genocide in Ukraine, I would be open to impeaching the president.

[OSR stands with Israel]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

[It’s so Joever]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Is there another Source?

[NOVA Green]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

[BlueSwan]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

Some of your posts have been over the top, but I have to agree with this one. We cannot have any sort of world order if Russia is permitted to continue down this path. Sanctions is no longer enough.

[Cassius]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Well it shouldn’t cost to much to fund a chicken coop.

[Omega21]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

No reports yet of them being used on urban areas, and I hope it stays that way, but I guess we will see.

Anyway, you are understandably emotional about this, but frying the entire human race with nukes is no better alternative to this.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can’t Ukraine launch a counter attack on the airport?

[NOVA Green]

So the saga of "Snake Island" and the valiant Ukranian defenders continues:

Courtesy of CNN from 1 hour and ten minutes ago:

"1 hr 10 min ago
Pentagon denies Russia's claim that it's "highly likely" US used surveillance drones to help Ukrainian navy

From CNN’s Nathan Hodge and Vasco Cotovio in Moscow and Oren Lieberman at the Pentagon

The Pentagon has denied a claim from the Russian Ministry of Defence saying it is "highly likely" that the United States used some of its surveillance drones flying over the Black Sea to help the Ukrainian Navy attack its vessels.

“On the evening of February 25, during the evacuation of 82 Ukrainian servicemen who voluntarily laid down their arms from Zmeiny [Zmiiny] Island, 16 boats of the Ukrainian Navy, using the 'swarm tactics,' tried to attack the ships of the Black Sea Fleet,” Russian defense ministry spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in a statement on Saturday. “During the attack by Ukrainian boats over the provocation area, US strategic unmanned aerial vehicles RQ-4 'Global Hawk' and MQ-9A 'Reaper' were overhead.”

“It is highly likely that it was American UAVs that directed Ukrainian boats at the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” Konashenkov said.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby denied the claims:

“Russian claims that the United States was involved in any way with Ukrainian naval operations near the Zmiiny Island are false. We did not provide ISR or any other support. Chalk this up to just one more lie by the Russian Ministry of Defense,” he told CNN.
Konashenkov also said that six boats of the Ukrainian navy were destroyed but that none of the 82 Ukrainian servicemen from the island, also known as Snake Island, were injured.

..."


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/index.html

[Storr]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

Speaking of Belarus, one drunk Belarusian soldier (accidentally?) walked into Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1497508010926690312?s=20&t=cUwMMC...

[Estrella]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

Uzhhorod's airport is right on the border of a NATO member state - as in, the runway ends literally one hundred meters from the border fence. If it came down to fighting in Zakarpattia, I wouldn't want to be in Putin's shoes, though, living in the state the airport borders, I certainly don't want to be in my shoes either. But perhaps it's inevitable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

Speaking of Belarus, one drunk Belarusian soldier (accidentally?) walked into Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1497508010926690312?s=20&t=cUwMMC...

Someone had too much vodka...

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

No reports yet of them being used on urban areas, and I hope it stays that way, but I guess we will see.

Anyway, you are understandably emotional about this, but frying the entire human race with nukes is no better alternative to this.

At what point does this stop? By the time this is all over with, the precedents set today will be used as justification for genocide tomorrow. Your worries are understandable, and I know full well this is a risky move…but the alternative is simply just as bad, if not worse. We face a critical decision today, do we take a huge risk now, or do we punt the football to the next generation and the next, with the world becoming progressively more bleak with each passing year?

[NOVA Green]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Is there another Source?

Haven't seen anything yet on my regular subscription outlets (NYT, WP, WSJ) nor on the CNN website.

Could be that I misheard or it was framed as a hypothetical or misinformation crept in from Ukranian gvt sources?

Would imagine if true we would see this story gain more traction....

Take with giant bucket of salt, but certainly if Russia were to destroy the dam would be significant civilian impacts...

[Storr]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

Speaking of Belarus, one drunk Belarusian soldier (accidentally?) walked into Ukraine.

<tweet snip>

Someone had too much vodka...

Evidently Putin is (likely?) planning to bring the Belarusian military into the war. Presumably its forces would be used for an attack on western Ukraine from Belarus. I can't imagine Belarusian morale is all that great currently. I'd get drunk too, to be honest.

[It’s so Joever]

Aerial bombing of Kyiv is anticipated…

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

No reports yet of them being used on urban areas, and I hope it stays that way, but I guess we will see.

Anyway, you are understandably emotional about this, but frying the entire human race with nukes is no better alternative to this.

Like swan said, is that any better than having a world where certain people can just do what they want? It becomes an evitable no matter what we do at a certain point.