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I mean if you take these polls at face value and assume the other states don't flip (except NE 2) then Biden wins unless I'm missing something. So umm, that's good. lol

Any idea if their will be any Nationalist and Unionist pacts in Northern Ireland this time?

Not likely, but possible. Voted option 2 since my waffling isn't an option.

Tough one.  I'm going to Italy tomorrow (!), so I'd love to be able to fully communicate with the locals, but I have several Brazilian friends, so I have to go with Portuguese.

Currently hoping to take an Italian class in the fall. Portuguese may be more significant, but in terms of Latin America I'd be better off rehabilitating my Spanish.

*backsplash

I do have a crystal ball, but unfortunately it's broken and I can't get parts for it anymore.

The major problem is polling agencies keep updating their weighting method every cycle. We cannot use the difference between previous polling and result as references, since they may already adjusted or over-adjusted. If they overrated R by 3 last time, they may underrate by 2 this time because of that. Had they stay the same, it would be much easier for us to make predictions. Ironically the polling agencies trying to correct their previous errors makes it harder to make predictions.

[+/-4.4%]

Garbarge Poll. Florida is not a Trump +6 State. More like Trump +8 or Trump +9.

This is an unusually bad post even by the standards of this forum.  From the report:

The survey included 3,843 registered voters and included about 500 respondents in each of the eight swing states.

The margin of error on a sample size of 500 is about +/-4.4% -- on each candidate's share, not the margin.  And you're calling a margin that's 2% or 3% off what you think it should be, "garbage"?  This poll is a direct hit on where you think it should be!  That's what margin of error represents.

POLLS ARE NOT EXACT MEASUREMENTS.  If you do not understand this, I recommend that you take a beginning course in Probability and Statistics.

Woah, just take it easy man.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1793022968639221809

Contempt proceedings tonite queen?

As if we needed more proof how depraved Mr. Trump is as a character.

Or how unabashedly depraved his supporters are.

[The same lists as below for the July 1, 2022 estimates released last year.]

In the 2020 census, the State House "quotas" of Maine's largest municipalities (those with over 0.9/151 of Maine's population in any one of the three following tables), were as follows (with instances where the "Estimates Base" (EB) used in for the recently released estimates yields a different quota than the official census numbers noted in parentheses (that's happened a lot more with the estimates following the 2020 census than with those between the 2010 and 2020 censuses):

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.5821 (EB 7.5773) (State Senate quota {1.5566 (EB 1.5556), 1.6570 (EB 1.6560), 1.7575 (EB 1.7563)} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs" for all three sizes allowed under the Maine Constitution)
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.1144 (EB 4.1122) (State Senate quota {0.8447 (EB 0.8442), 0.8992 (EB 0.8987), 0.9537 (EB 0.9532)} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, below 0.95 "cutoff" with 31 or 33 Senators but between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark with the current 35 Senators)
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.5194 (EB 3.5157) (State Senate quota {0.7225 (EB 0.7218), 0.7691 (EB 0.7683), 0.8158 (EB 0.8149)} with {31, 33, 35}, well below 0.95 "cutoff" for all three allowable sizes)
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.9370 (EB 2.9351)
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6669 (EB 2.6646)
Biddeford city 2.4996 (EB 2.4974)
Scarborough town 2.4534 (EB 2.4520)
Sanford city 2.4364 (EB 2.4343)
Brunswick town 2.4114 (EB 2.4107)
Westbrook city 2.2611 (EB 2.2602)
Saco city 2.2590 (EB 2.2575)
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0947 (EB 2.0936)
Windham town 2.0432 (EB 2.0409)
Gorham town 2.0323
=2.0 mark=
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.7543 (EB 1.8479)
York town 1.5210 (EB 1.5199)
Falmouth town 1.3793 (EB 1.3790)
Kennebunk town 1.2786 (EB 1.2780)
Wells town 1.2540 (EB 1.2539)
Orono town 1.2395 (EB 1.2383)
Standish town 1.1354 (EB 1.1337)
Kittery town 1.1161 (EB 1.1158)
Lisbon town 1.0763 (EB 1.0758)
Brewer city 1.0720 (EB 1.0719)
Topsham town 1.0596 (EB 1.0590)
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0568 (EB 1.0565)
=1.05 "cutoff"=
=1.0 mark=
Yarmouth town 0.9964 (EB 0.9966)
Old Orchard Beach town 0.9931 (EB 0.9928)
Presque Isle city 0.9750 (EB 0.9740)
Bath city 0.9716 (EB 0.9711)
Freeport town 0.9684 (EB 0.9670)
Skowhegan town 0.9554 (EB 0.9548)
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Cumberland town 0.9391 (EB 0.9383)
Ellsworth city 0.9309 (EB 0.9303)
Buxton town 0.9284 (EB 0.9278)
Gray town 0.9165 (EB 0.9160)
Berwick town 0.8812 (EB 0.8810)
...
Farmington town 0.8415 (EB 0.8404)

The largest municipalities as of and according to the July 1, 2023 estimates and their State House "quotas" are as follows:

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.4762 (State Senate quota {1.5349, 1.6339, 1.7329} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs" for all three sizes allowed under the Maine Constitution)
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.1548 (State Senate quota {0.8530, 0.9080, 0.9630} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, below 0.95 "cutoff" with 31 or 33 Senators but between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark with the current 35 Senators)
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.4218 (State Senate quota {0.7025, 0.7478, 0.7931} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, well below 0.95 "cutoff" for all three allowable sizes)
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.9038
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6823
Scarborough town 2.5593
Brunswick town 2.4271
Biddeford city 2.4198
Sanford city 2.4073
Saco city 2.2676
Westbrook city 2.2248
Windham town 2.1268
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0666
=2.0 mark=
Gorham town 1.9848
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.8200
York town 1.5274
Falmouth town 1.3922
Orono town 1.3256
Kennebunk town 1.2891
Wells town 1.2826
Standish town 1.1706
Kittery town 1.1667
Topsham town 1.0549
Lisbon town 1.0526
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Brewer city 1.0436
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0377
Old Orchard Beach town 1.0136
=1.0 mark=
Yarmouth town 0.9765
Bath city 0.9568
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Freeport town 0.9500 (0.944996, to be more precise)
Cumberland town 0.9471
Ellsworth city 0.9424
Skowhegan town 0.9389
Presque Isle city 0.9387
Buxton town 0.9237
Farmington town 0.9115
Gray town 0.9082
Berwick town 0.8943

Taking the "Estimates base" from April 1, 2020 shown in the same Census Bureau tables showing the above estimates, and adding to it the population gains (negative for losses) from that base to July 1, 2023 multiplied by 10/3.25 (I use a linear progression rather than exponential as it has the benefit of municipal projections being the same as county projections), the following are the projected (April 1,) 2030 State House "quotas" for all municipalities (in descending order) with projected (or 2020) quotas above 0.9000:

=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.2807 (State Senate quota {1.4947, 1.5911, 1.6876} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs" for all three sizes allowed under the Maine Constitution)
=7.0 mark=
...
=4.75 (5*0.95) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.2372 (State Senate quota {0.8699, 0.9260, 0.9821} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, below 0.95 "cutoff" with 31 or 33 Senators but between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark with the current 35 Senators)
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.2399 (State Senate quota {0.6651, 0.7081, 0.7510} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, well below 0.95 "cutoff" for all three allowable sizes)
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
South Portland city 2.8431
Scarborough town 2.7668
Auburn city 2.7166
Brunswick town 2.4588
Sanford city 2.3550
Windham town 2.2928
Saco city 2.2872
Biddeford city 2.2697
Westbrook city 2.1563
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0144
=2.0 mark=
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Gorham town 1.8929
Waterville city 1.7662
York town 1.5419
Orono town 1.4946
Falmouth town 1.4177
Wells town 1.3380
Kennebunk town 1.3105
Kittery town 1.2652
Standish town 1.2419
Old Orchard Beach town 1.0538
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Farmington town 1.0490
Topsham town 1.0471
Lisbon town 1.0076
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0014
=1.0 mark=
Brewer city 0.9887
Ellsworth city 0.9660
Cumberland town 0.9640
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Yarmouth town 0.9376
Bath city 0.9291
Berwick town 0.9201
Freeport town 0.9170
Buxton town 0.9158
Skowhegan town 0.9079
Gray town 0.8933
...
Presque Isle city 0.8705