Prime Group/CSOR-D: Biden leads WI, PI, MI, tie in NV, Trump leads GA, NC, FL, AZ

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be 275/219 74/70M Eday with AZ, NC and GA on tossups

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

If these numbers are the best a Democrat  sponsored polling company can do, then Biden is in trouble. He really needs to kill it in the debate in June if he wants to change things.

Bad polls for Biden = here's how it's bad for Biden
Decent/good polls for Biden = nope they're wrong, here's how it's bad for Biden
Great polls for Biden = these must be fake, they're overestimating Ds again, outlier, here's how it's bad for Biden

I'm not saying these polls are gospel but this is the truth with a lot of people on this forum. A lot of these results do line up with recent polling results we've gotten.

Its generally a good idea to add about 2-3 points to internals or other supported polls

[TechbroMBA]

A D NUT map yields Biden at just 270…

[Dan the Roman]

If these numbers are the best a Democrat  sponsored polling company can do, then Biden is in trouble. He really needs to kill it in the debate in June if he wants to change things.

Bad polls for Biden = here's how it's bad for Biden
Decent/good polls for Biden = nope they're wrong, here's how it's bad for Biden
Great polls for Biden = these must be fake, they're overestimating Ds again, outlier, here's how it's bad for Biden

I'm not saying these polls are gospel but this is the truth with a lot of people on this forum. A lot of these results do line up with recent polling results we've gotten.

Can someone cite these "great polls for Biden" because even the best outliers he is getting generally have him doing worse than 2020?

Like we should statistically be getting outliers in his favor and if the best he is doing in any polls from anyone is right around, well, these numbers, that's not what I would call "great".

[2016]

Garbarge Poll. Florida is not a Trump +6 State. More like Trump +8 or Trump +9.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If these numbers are the best a Democrat  sponsored polling company can do, then Biden is in trouble. He really needs to kill it in the debate in June if he wants to change things.

Bad polls for Biden = here's how it's bad for Biden
Decent/good polls for Biden = nope they're wrong, here's how it's bad for Biden
Great polls for Biden = these must be fake, they're overestimating Ds again, outlier, here's how it's bad for Biden

I'm not saying these polls are gospel but this is the truth with a lot of people on this forum. A lot of these results do line up with recent polling results we've gotten.

You are very hypocrite since this is basically all you do but in the opposite way. Finding ways of explaining of how something is good for Biden.

Prepare for big disappointment on election day, it's all i will say. Am even willing to send you a few napkins from overseas. Because I believe in solidarity, it's what my entire ideology centers on.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Garbarge Poll. Florida is not a Trump +6 State. More like Trump +8 or Trump +9.

This is an unusually bad post even by the standards of this forum.  From the report:

The survey included 3,843 registered voters and included about 500 respondents in each of the eight swing states.

The margin of error on a sample size of 500 is about +/-4.4% -- on each candidate's share, not the margin.  And you're calling a margin that's 2% or 3% off what you think it should be, "garbage"?  This poll is a direct hit on where you think it should be!  That's what margin of error represents.

POLLS ARE NOT EXACT MEASUREMENTS.  If you do not understand this, I recommend that you take a beginning course in Probability and Statistics.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Are these gonna be added into the database?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're too rosy for Ds the pollster RI don't enter rosy polls

[emailking]

I mean if you take these polls at face value and assume the other states don't flip (except NE 2) then Biden wins unless I'm missing something. So umm, that's good. lol

Also including RFK et al. doesn't flip any of these states.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I mean if you take these polls at face value and assume the other states don't flip (except NE 2) then Biden wins unless I'm missing something. So umm, that's good. lol

Also including RFK et al. doesn't flip any of these states.

At the very least it does appear that Biden's easiest path is through the rust belt trio plus NE-2, and maybe Nevada. As far as I'm concerned, a tie in Nevada is winnable for Biden, given the state's pecularities.

Arizona and Georgia are gravy, though would certainly still be nice to keep.

[emailking]

I agree if NV is a tie going into the election I think Biden gets it because Dems tend to overperform the polls in NV.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I mean if you take these polls at face value and assume the other states don't flip (except NE 2) then Biden wins unless I'm missing something. So umm, that's good. lol

Also including RFK et al. doesn't flip any of these states.

At the very least it does appear that Biden's easiest path is through the rust belt trio plus NE-2, and maybe Nevada. As far as I'm concerned, a tie in Nevada is winnable for Biden, given the state's pecularities.

Arizona and Georgia are gravy, though would certainly still be nice to keep.

I do think AZ will vote slightly left of nv but they are the states I am least confident about collectively

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean if you take these polls at face value and assume the other states don't flip (except NE 2) then Biden wins unless I'm missing something. So umm, that's good. lol

Also including RFK et al. doesn't flip any of these states.

At the very least it does appear that Biden's easiest path is through the rust belt trio plus NE-2, and maybe Nevada. As far as I'm concerned, a tie in Nevada is winnable for Biden, given the state's pecularities.

Arizona and Georgia are gravy, though would certainly still be nice to keep.

I do think AZ will vote slightly left of nv but they are the states I am least confident about collectively

Lol there are polling biases in NV you should know that already

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I mean if you take these polls at face value and assume the other states don't flip (except NE 2) then Biden wins unless I'm missing something. So umm, that's good. lol

Also including RFK et al. doesn't flip any of these states.

At the very least it does appear that Biden's easiest path is through the rust belt trio plus NE-2, and maybe Nevada. As far as I'm concerned, a tie in Nevada is winnable for Biden, given the state's pecularities.

Arizona and Georgia are gravy, though would certainly still be nice to keep.

I do think AZ will vote slightly left of nv but they are the states I am least confident about collectively

Lol there are polling biases in NV you should know that already

I do not deny that.