ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

After the end of the KMT primary it seems that Ko is moving toward running.  DPP has been trying to be positive on Ko to try to get him not to run.  Ko seems to be spurring such attempts and has been upping his attacks on the DPP making comments that it was not for the incompetence of DPP Prez Tsai he would not even be considering a run.  Ko seems to think he has some Pan-Green youth vote in the bank and he wants to test his ability to  capture some anti-Tsai light Blue support so he is going all out on attacking Tsai and DPP.

With chances of Ko running risng the xfutures market are moving away from Tsai and toward Han and Ko.

Xfutures odds on Prez winner
DPP Tsai  44
KMT Han 39
Ko          17

[jaichind]

全方位(Total View) post KMT primary poll.  全方位(Total View) has a slight pro-Blue lean and was actually the only pollster that was used in both the DPP and KMT primary.

2-way
KMT Han  41.1
DPP Tsai   33.7

3-way
KMT Han  36.4
Ko           24.8
DPP Tsai   24.2

KMT Han  33.2
DPP Tsai   27.1
Guo         25.9

4-way
KMT Han  32.3
DPP Tsai  22.1
Guo        18.4
Ko          16.4

53.5 does not support a Guo run.  54.8 does not support a Guo-Ko ticket.

Is is not right for KMT Han to run while being the mayor of Kaohsiung 51.2
Is is not right for Ko to run while being the mayor of Taipei 49.7

[jaichind]

Right Independence NGO 喜樂島聯盟 (Formosa Alliance or FA) which is aligned with DPP ex-Prez Chen and a strong backer of Lai in the DPP primary has announced that they will become a political party and will be running a candidate in the 2020 PRez and Legislative elections.  As a Right Independence outfit it does focus on social conservative appeal as well as a radical Taiwan Independence agenda.  

Most likely at the Prez level they will not come up with anyone that can be a credible candidate but at the legislative level I guess they can do some damage to to DPP.  I think they will end up as TSU2.0.  TSU was KMT ex-Prez Lee's Right Independence outfit that has most entered into obscurity by 2016 as KMT ex-Prez Lee pretty much has gone into political retirement.  FA is seems will be DPP ex-Prez Chen's Right Independence outfit but like Lee for TSU Chen will not join it so he can have plausible deniability if FA has some faux pas.  

So now we will have two radial independence parties.  NPP as Left Independence and FA as Right Independence.  NPP as it is, seems to be falling apart anyway.  It is split 3 ways between pro-Tsai pro-Ko or against all factions.  At this stage the pro-Tsai factions seems to have the upper hand and most likely NPP will have some sort of tactical alliance with DPP.  But that just means NPP will retain the pro-DPP part of the NPP base with the rest scattered between various pro-KO forces or NPP rebels or just not voting.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll which is very internet and cell phone heavy so it will have a more youth weight has DPP Tsai ahead of KMT Han.

2-way
DPP Tsai 41.2
KMT Han 36.0


3-way

DPP Tsai 31.8
KMT Han 30.0
Ko          27.5


DPP Tsai 33.8
KMT Han 30.0
Guo       27.5



4-way

DPP Tsai 31.8
KMT Han 30.5
Guo        20.7
Ko          11.1


It seems both DPP Tsai and KMT Han have ceilings of low 30s as long as there is a third party candidate in the fray.  This poll which is youth heavy would be something that is likely to take place in a high turnout election with large youth turnout. 

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/taiwan-s-intelligence-chief-resigns-over-smuggled-cigarettes-11746742

Scandal hits Tsai regime with staff of Tsai security detail caught smuggling cigarettes which saves on tariffs of around $200K.

Xfutures markets moves dramatically to

Tsai
KMT Han  47
DPP Tsai  26
Ko           27

I think this is a bit of an overreaction but part of it could be that now Ko is much more likely to jump into the race.  Also part of it could be poll still show Han with an edge in polls in 3 way race at a time where we are clearly past KMT primaries.

[jaichind]

Green Party poll done before the recent smuggling scandal

2-way
DPP Tsai  43.7
KMT Han 39.6

3-way
DPP Tsai  30.0
KMT Han 30.0
Ko          24.6

4-way
KMT Han 27.4
DPP Tsai  25.4
Guo        18.9
Ko          17.2

Guo-Ko alliance
DPP Tsai     29.5
KMT Han    29.5
Guo-Ko      27.3

[jaichind]

品觀點(Pinview) which is youth heavy poll done before the recent smuggling scandal

2-way
KMT Han   37.2
DPP Tsai    34.5

3-way
KMT Han  33.3
DPP Tsai   26.2
Ko           21.7



Xfutures odds has Tsai recovering from when cigarettes smuggling scandal hit

Winner of 2020 election
KMT Han  42
DPP Tsai   33
KO           25

[jaichind]

The cigarettes smuggling  scandal involved $500K worth of cigarettes being smuggled with the ROC Presidential security detail trunks that followed Prez Tsai back to the Presidential Palace.  The amount of cigarettes involved reminds me of the Simpsons Episode of Bart working for the Mob and agreed to store a truck load of stolen cigarettes  in his room

[jaichind]

Pro-Blue UDN poll which was partly done while the cigarettes smuggling scandal was breaking (change from June)

2-way Tsai now even with Han
KMT Han  32(-11)
DPP Tsai  32(-6)



3-way
KMT Han  29(-6)
Ko           25(-1)
DPP Tsai   22(--)


Where
KMT Han's supporters in a 2 way race still break for Han 81-12-1, while DPP Tsai's supporters in a 2 way race sees large losses to Ko 1-35-65

[jaichind]

Apple Daliy poll after the  cigarettes smuggling scandal  broke

2-way
KMT Han   37.8(-0.6)
DPP Tsai    35.4(-2.5)


3-way
KMT Han   32.6(-0.6)
DPP Tsai   29.6(-3.1)
Ko            23.3(-0.1)


So Tsai loses ground but Han does not gain ground.  It seems this entire draft Han movement is not working out for KMT.  He has limited appeal beyond his core base. And now he has to run with the burden of abandoning Kaohsiung which he was just elected mayor in 2018.  KMT should have gone with Guo and even Chu.  Water under the bridge.  I have a bad feeling about this and once get past this she is in a good shape to win re-election.  KMT and Han just have to hope Tsai will get hit with scandal after scandal between now and Jan 2020.

Xfutures odds

KMT Han   42
DPP Tsai    39
Ko            19

It seems the futures market which has a pro-Green historically to be fair is also coming to the conclusion that Han's low ceiling does give both Tsai and Ko a chance.   

[xelas81]

Apple Daliy poll after the  cigarettes smuggling scandal  broke

2-way
KMT Han   37.8(-0.6)
DPP Tsai    35.4(-2.5)


3-way
KMT Han   32.6(-0.6)
DPP Tsai   29.6(-3.1)
Ko            23.3(-0.1)


So Tsai loses ground but Han does not gain ground.  It seems this entire draft Han movement is not working out for KMT.  He has limited appeal beyond his core base. And now he has to run with the burden of abandoning Kaohsiung which he was just elected mayor in 2018.  KMT should have gone with Guo and even Chu.  Water under the bridge.  I have a bad feeling about this and once get past this she is in a good shape to win re-election.  KMT and Han just have to hope Tsai will get hit with scandal after scandal between now and Jan 2020.

Xfutures odds

KMT Han   42
DPP Tsai    39
Ko            19

It seems the futures market which has a pro-Green historically to be fair is also coming to the conclusion that Han's low ceiling does give both Tsai and Ko a chance.   

How much Han's approval in Kaohsiung went down when he entered the race for president shortly after being elected as the mayor?

[jaichind]

How much Han's approval in Kaohsiung went down when he entered the race for president shortly after being elected as the mayor?

It for sure have dropped.  How much is not clear since mostly pro-Green polls, many of which have
dubious track records, have polled this.  But it is clear that a majority of  Kaohsiung  voters oppose Han getting into the race and even if Han wins the Prez race in 2020 it is almost certain that DPP would win back Kaohsiung in the ensuing by-election.

[jaichind]

Ettoday (slight pro-Blue but very internet and youth heavy) poll post cigarettes smuggling scandal 

2-way
DPP Tsai   39.0(-2.2)
KMT Han  38.9(+2.9)


3-way with Ko
KMT Han  36.2(+2.4)
DPP Tsai   33.9(+0.7)
Ko           18.4(-2.


3-way with Guo
DPP Tsai   35.0(-0.6)
KMT Han  32.7(+2.5)
Guo         22.4(-2.7)


4-way
KMT Han  31.7(+1.2)
DPP Tsai   31.5(-0.3)
Guo         18.0(-2.7)
Ko           11.9(+0.


3-way with Guo-Ko
DPP Tsai   32.2(-0.6)
KMT Han  32.1(+2.1)
Guo-Ko    24.4(-3.1)


What is key here is how low Ko and Guo are relative to DPP Tsai.  This seems to indicate that the youth vote which abandoned Tsai/DPP in late 2018 is partly coming back to DPP Tsai.  If so the dynamics of tactical voting in a 3 way race will work in DPP Tsai's favor relative to Han and Ko/Guo.   

[jaichind]

Very pro-Tsai Green party poll

2-way
DPP Tsai    43.9
KMT Han   38.5

3-way
DPP Tsai   32.1
KMT Han  31.8
Ko           25.3

3-way in Taipei City
KMT Han 30.6
DPP Tsai  29.1
Ko          19.1

Ko under-performing in his own city of Taipei City as a good chunk of his ex-DPP youth base seems to have shifted back to DPP Tsai.

3-way with Ko-Guo alliance
Guo-Ko   32.4
DPP Tsai  30.6
KMT Han  28.4

Ko-Guo surges to first place

Party support
KMT    35.5
DPP     27.4
NPP     10.4
TSP       3.0 (radical Independence)
PFP        2.3
GP         2.1 (well, this is a Green Party poll)

NPP which broke the cigarettes smuggling scandal  saw their support drop from 16.9 from a month ago as its pro-Green base gets angry at their actions that harm DPP Tsai's prospects.

[jaichind]

Ko to kick off new political party on 8/6 called 台灣民眾黨 or Taiwanese People's Party (my translation) or TPP.  This must be a precurser to him running.



This is the same name as 蔣渭水(Chiang Wei-shui) 1927 political party which was formed during Japanese rule.   In many ways it was a de facto Taiwan branch of the KMT .

The 1927 TPP party flag is really the the ROC flag but changed in way that the Japanese authorities cannot go after them.  The party was shut down by the Japanese authorizes in 1930 


It seems that Ko want to capture that sprite of 1927. 

This is not a good idea for Ko.  He made his political name as the politician of anti-politics.  To form a party seems to contradict his original anti-establishment message.

[jaichind]

Speaking of 台灣民眾黨 or TPP which is the name of Ko's new party, as mentioned before it is the same name as the 1927 party formed by activist  蔣渭水(Chiang Wei-shui) which was really a Right Taiwan Independence outfit.   I would be interesting to cover this part of the history of Taiwan Province.

In pre-1945 period, there were also a Taiwan Independence movement and like today there was Right Independence and Left Independence.  蔣渭水(Chiang Wei-shui)'s TPP which was really a KMT front organization represented Right Independence while CCP supported Left Independence.  The definiton are as the following:

Right Independence: Since Ching China signed away Taiwan Province to Japan in 1895 it would be against international law for ROC to claim Taiwan Province.  BUT the KMT can support a Right Independence movement like TPP to fight for and gain self-determination for Taiwan which would vote for independence from Japan  and then after that a newly independent Taiwan under the control of TPP would ask to Join ROC.  This way  Taiwan would re-join China without ROC being acting in a way that violated treaties that its predecessor signed and it is obligated to follow.  In other words Right Independence is not independence at all but a front movement for reunification with ROC.  In many ways this is a clone of the 1895 short live Republic of Formosa which was formed after Ching China ceded Taiwan Province to Japan and the local population formed Republic of Formosa to fight off the Japanese and then find a way to merge back into Ching China.


Left Independence: Created and backed by CCP.  Following Marxist norms of self-determination of oppressed peoples, the CCP and its Left Independence agents up until the mid 1930s were actually for an independent and Communist Taiwan that would be a fraternal Socialist state align side a Communist China.  This Independence is real independence unlike the fake Right Independence movement.  This is the first real Taiwan Independence movement  that is for real Independence as a goal.  So the real founders of Taiwan Independence is no other than CCP.  By the mid 1930s the CCP mostly backed off from this position as it started  incorporate Chinese nationalist thinking into its program to gain popular  support as it was clear that a pure Marxist platform was not gaining such support.

[jaichind]

There are also rumors that ex-DPP Prez Chen will also turn his cross-party political 一邊一國連線 (One Side One Country Alliance) or OSOCA into a party 一邊一國行動黨 One Side One Country Party or OSOCP.  Not sure what is the point of this.  There already is a pro-Chen Right Independence party that just got created which is 喜樂島聯盟 (Formosa Alliance) or FA.  Not sure why we need two pro-Chen Right Independence parties.

All this DPP splinters and now Ko's TPP will most likely eat into NPP as the pro-Green but anti-DPP alternative.  I think in 2020 NPP will be sunk and might end up with no seats even if it forms a de facto  alliance with DPP most of its vote base will migrate to these DPP splinter or Ko's TPP. 

[jaichind]

Looks like PRC has announced that it will stop issuing travel permits for individual leisure trips to Taiwan Province.   This means business travel and group tours would be the only way for many Mainland Chinese tourist to travel to Taiwan Province.

Usually before a ROC election the PRC tends to deescalate to try to support KMT and not allow DPP to weaponize the cross straits relationship for political benefit in the election.  I think this time around the PRC position is "We do not care about KMT, you guys can vote for who ever you want, just realize the level of economic pain we can inflict and that we can always ratchet it up more."

[xelas81]

There are also rumors that ex-DPP Prez Chen will also turn his cross-party political 一邊一國連線 (One Side One Country Alliance) or OSOCA into a party 一邊一國行動黨 One Side One Country Party or OSOCP.  Not sure what is the point of this.  There already is a pro-Chen Right Independence party that just got created which is 喜樂島聯盟 (Formosa Alliance) or FA.  Not sure why we need two pro-Chen Right Independence parties.

All this DPP splinters and now Ko's TPP will most likely eat into NPP as the pro-Green but anti-DPP alternative.  I think in 2020 NPP will be sunk and might end up with no seats even if it forms a de facto  alliance with DPP most of its vote base will migrate to these DPP splinter or Ko's TPP. 

I thought NPP was left independence and youth-heavy party. Maybe they will lose some some voters to Ko's and Chen's party but won't their core base still would vote for NPP?
Also if Chen forms new party would that mean he would also run for Prez?

[jaichind]

There are also rumors that ex-DPP Prez Chen will also turn his cross-party political 一邊一國連線 (One Side One Country Alliance) or OSOCA into a party 一邊一國行動黨 One Side One Country Party or OSOCP.  Not sure what is the point of this.  There already is a pro-Chen Right Independence party that just got created which is 喜樂島聯盟 (Formosa Alliance) or FA.  Not sure why we need two pro-Chen Right Independence parties.

All this DPP splinters and now Ko's TPP will most likely eat into NPP as the pro-Green but anti-DPP alternative.  I think in 2020 NPP will be sunk and might end up with no seats even if it forms a de facto  alliance with DPP most of its vote base will migrate to these DPP splinter or Ko's TPP. 

I thought NPP was left independence and youth-heavy party. Maybe they will lose some some voters to Ko's and Chen's party but won't their core base still would vote for NPP?
Also if Chen forms new party would that mean he would also run for Prez?

You are generally correct.  But there are lots of different types of people that back NPP:
a) Anti-Tsai anti-DPP but pro-independence.  These guys will now go to the pro-Chen parties
b) Left-Progressive youth but lukewarm on independence.  These guys will now go TPP
c) Left-Progressive youth and pro-independence.  This should stay in NPP but many of these voters are also attracted to Tsai so it is not clear how much will stay behind in NPP

The pro-Chen parties are there for one reason.  It is not for Chen to run for President as he is serving a prison term for corruption and cannot run.  Chen has been convicted for corruption  and is only out on medical parole.  The DPP Tsai regime can put him behind bars any moment saying Chen is medically fit to serve out his term which is almost certainly objectively true.  So the pro-Chen parties are there as a threat to Tsai that if she does anything against Chen then they will go on a kamikaze mission to take down Tsai and DPP in 2020 elections.  Of course Tsai/DPP can counter with :well if the KMT comes back to power then Chen will be behind bars within days so go ahead, make my day.  This will turn into a game of chicken between Chen and Tsai.

[jaichind]

It would be useful to look at TVBS polls at this point in the last 2 ROC Prez re-election campaign (5 months before the election)

2003 Oct
KMT-PFP Lien-Soong 41
DPP Chen                35

TVBS polls last few days before the 2004 election hasd Lien-Soong 8-10 points ahead but Chen being shot the day before the election led to polls being 39-39 last day before the election then Chen won 50.1-49.9 on election day in March 2004.

2011 July
KMT Ma  44
DPP Tsai 36

Later on PFP Soong jump into the race and and Ma won 51.6-45.6-2.8 in Jan 2012

Now we have

2019 July
KMT Han 48
DPP Tsai  44

The 2004 and 2012 record seem to indicate that 4-5 month before the election the state of the race is very likely to be similar to polls right before the election, notwithstanding a last minute assassination attempt the day before the election in 2004

[jaichind]

Youth heavy 品觀點(Pinview) poll post  cigarettes smuggling scandal  does not show much change

2-way
KMT Han  39.3 (+2.1)
DPP Tsai   36.0 (+1.5)

3-way
KMT Han  33.7 (+0.4)
DPP Tsai   26.5 (+0.3)
Ko           24.5 (+2.

4-way
KMT Han  30.3 (-2.0)
DPP Tsai   24.4 (+2.3)
Guo         16.6 (-1.
Ko           16.4 (--)

[jaichind]

One of NPP's top leaders and founder 林昶佐(Freddy Lim) quit NPP today to back DPP Tsai for Prez race.  DPP most likely will support 林昶佐(Freddy Lim) in his Taipei 5th district who will run as a independent.  He was elected here as NPP candidate with DPP support.  Most likely KMT will recapture this seat in 2020.   At this stage NPP is splitting down the middle between pro-Tsai and anti-Tsai factions.  Pro-Tsai faction will pretty much just join DPP while the anti-Tsai faction will most likely join up with Ko.

[jaichind]

There seems to be signs of all sorts of talks between Guo, KMT ex-Speaker Wang, and Ko camps for the creation of a  mega Third Front.  I think it comes down to, if Guo is winning to run, then Ko would step aside for a Guo-Wang ticket with Guo also agreeing to back Ko's TPP in the Legislative race.  Such a deal would also mean that some of Guo and Wang backers will find themselves on the TPP PR list.  All this is premised on Guo actually running as an independent.  It is not clear that that is the case.  In case Guo does not which is still more likely than not, then Ko will run not to necessary win but to push up the TPP PR vote. 

[jaichind]

New Green Party poll on party support (change from poll 1 week ago before TPP was formed)

KMT    34.0 (-1.5)
DPP     24.8 (-2.6)
TPP       9.1
NPP       5.1 (-5.3)
GP        3.3 (+1.2)
TSP       2.8 (-0.2) (radical Independence)
PFP       0.9 (-1.4)


TPP draws support most from NPP and PFP, as expected.  It also draws some support from DPP more so than KMT.  This might be the peak support for TPP.  I suspect it will lose support to DPP and KMT from here but I guess in theory continue to draw from NPP.