ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020 (user search)
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jaichind
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« on: March 18, 2019, 01:36:11 PM »
« edited: January 12, 2020, 01:04:18 PM by The Ayotoli »

With the end of the 3/16 by-elections and now that DPP ex-PM Lai has thrown his hat into the DPP "primary" and challenge DPP Prez Tsai I think the boundary has been crossed from the 2018 ROC local elections to the ROC 2020 Jan Prez and Legislative elections.

DPP Prez Tsai (蔡英文) has low approval ratings (mid to high 20s) and saw a big defeat in 2018 local elections (although not as big as many make it out to be).  Since Jan 2019 she has been slowly recovering in the polls based on pushing the anti-unification line and seemed determined to run for reelection.

Today she got a big shot when New Tide faction and ex-PM Lai(賴清德) threw himself into the DPP "primary".


Just a word on ROC "primaries."  They are usually a series of polls which are done on behalf of the party in question (be it DPP or KMT) which are then averaged for the party chairperson to use to make a call on which candidate to nominate.  Sometimes these polls are "which candidate in said party do you favor", sometimes the results are filtered for just those supporters of said party.  Sometimes they are trial heats vs other party candidates to see which candidate would do better in teh general election.

DPP Prez Tsai starts out behind but Lai is not that much head of her and she can clearly make up ground by the end of the "primary" in mid April when DPP Chairperson (who is pro-Tsai) will make a call based on polling results.  As expected New Tide DPP office holders are coming out for Lai and anti-New Tide DPP office holders are coming out for Tsai.  

It also seems those that back DPP ex-Prez Chen are mostly coming out for Lai. Ex-Prez Chen was arrest and jailed for corruption back in 2009 after he left office and has been out on medical parole which is a total sham.   Ex-Prez Chen has been pushing Tsai to pardon him and Tsai has refused based on the fact it will cost her independent votes in her re-election campaign.  Lai is making pardoning ex-Prez Chen as part of his plank which would put more pressure on Tsai.  

Everyone is saying that Lai would win the DPP primary.  I do not think it is a slam dunk.  Tsai has the power of the office and an entire month to turn this around.  
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2019, 01:46:20 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2019, 01:55:51 PM by jaichind »

On the KMT side the front runner is Chu (朱立倫) who ran and lost badly to Tsai in 2016.  The consensus in the KMT was that 2016 was due to the meltdown of the Ma regime and Chu should be given a second chance.



Chu's main opponent for now is ex-Speaker Wang(王金平).  Wang is from the South and has great networks within the KMT and outside the KMT.  His main problem is that he is seen as not "pure" enough in opposition to the DPP and does not seem to stand for anything other than to make friends with everyone.



KMT Chairman Wu (吳敦義) who is also ex-PM and ex-VP could also run but he is so far behind in the polls that most likely he will not try. Wu was always better as a backroom broker than a mass leader so him not running might be for the best.


Then we have Kaohsiung mayor Han (韓國瑜) who was the hero of the 2018 local elections.  Han is a KMT outsider and ex-MP whose political career was mostly washed up by the early 2000s.  But was asked by Wu to run for the Kaohsiung mayor  position in 2018 and was able to catch fire as a symbol of the anti-DPP wave.    There is a view that if Taipei mayor Ko gets into the race and KMT's Chu polls behind Ko then there will be a "Draft Han" move.



Also in the pan-Blue camp we a pro-KMT independent and ex-PM Chang(張善政).  He is an academic who then went on to run computer giant Acer but with clear pro-KMT views.  He served as PM under the Ma administration in 2016 and received good marks across the political spectrum.   He seems to want to run as a pan-Blue candidate.    Most likely if the KMT candidate polls well he will not push his case and will try to get himself on the KMT ticket as VP or work out a deal where he gets the PM position again in a KMT administration.  If the KMT nominated candidate does not poll well then Chang will asked that he runs as a pan-Blue independent that can appeal to independents.  

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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2019, 01:51:41 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2019, 01:56:17 PM by jaichind »

Then we have Ko (柯文哲) who was elected in 2014 as Taipei mayar as a pro-DPP independent and won re-election in 2018 narrowly after breaking with the DPP in a 3 way race with KMT and DPP.  He is unconventional and represents anti-politics with appeal to the cynical youth who have rejected conventional politics.  He was pro-Green in terms of Mainland China  but take flip flopped several times  and has played himself as having connections with the CCP who he can "manage" without giving away the farm.  


Ko has great personal appeal but seem to struggle in transferring his support to others.  This means if he runs and wins he will have almost no MPs in the legislature to push his agenda.  Ko's strategy seems to be wait and see if DPP or KMT falls apart.  If either one does he will come in and try to win over most of that party's base and win enough of the other party's base to win the election in a 3 way race.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2019, 01:58:13 PM »

With Lai getting into the DPP primary it seems Prez Tsai is not backing down so we will have a contested DPP primary.  Everyone seems to think Lai will win easily.  It does not look that way to me.

The pro-Lai pro-Independence think-tank Taiwan Braintruest just came out with a poll which was done before Lai announced.  These numbers are pretty much as good as it is going to get for Lai and as bad it is going to get for the KMT.

DPP Prez Tsai approval/disapproval:  28.2/53.4
DPP "primary" between Tsai vs Lai: Lai 50.9 Tsai 29.2 (but for DPP supporters it is Lai 48.1 Tsai 43.1)
KMT "primary" between Chu vs Wang vs Wu: Chu 43.8 Wang 33.8 Wu 6.1 (but for KMT supporters it is Chu 67.0 Wang 14.5 Wu 7.8 )
Party support: KMT 36.8 DPP 24.6 NPP 15.6 PFP 1.7 NP 1.2

Prez trial heats
KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai: Chu 51.1 Tasi 37.9
KMT Han vs DPP Tsai: Han 50.1 Tsai 41.6 (Han does worse than Chu)
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai: Lai 46.6 Chu 44.1
KMT Han vs DPP Lai: Lai 48.6 Han 44.6
KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai vs Ko: Chu 33.9 Ko 30.9 Tsai 29.0
KMT Han vs DPP Tsai vs Ko: Han 35.4 Tsai 30.6 Ko 27.9
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai vs Ko: Lai 35.1 Chu 31.8  Ko 27.9
KMT Han vs DPP Lai vs Ko: Lai 35.3 Han 34.7 Ko 24.1

So even the most pro-DPP pro-Lai poll has Lai ahead of Tsai in DPP voters 48.1 vs 43.1.  Even in trial heats Lai does a bit better than Tsai.    This means if Tsai really hits back against Lai over the next month this small gap could be close I can see Tsai winning this "primary."  She might end up being damaged but in March April Tsai and Lai primary campaign would push up media coverage of the DPP race and if Tsai manages to defeat Lai it might even enhance her position relative to Ko and Chu in the general election.  Granted a sitting incumbent facing a primary challenge is not good but Tsai is already in a dire situation and any reshuffling of the cards is a chance for her to improve her position.

One way or another it does not see like a slam dunk that Lai will defeat Tsai in the DPP "primary."  A lot will depend on the rules.  Will it be Lai vs Tsai series pf polls ? Will such polls filter out only DPP supporters?  Will the polls be more Prez trial heats? Either way Tsai is withing striking distance of Lai even in a pro-Lai poll.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2019, 03:33:58 PM »

Lai jumping into the DPP Prez primary could end up destroying the all powerful DPP New Tide faction.  The New Tide factions is really co-led by Lai and ex-Kaoshiung mayor and DPP Prez Tsai COS Chen (陈菊).


Now Chen is in a difficult situation of having to pick her co-leader of New Tide over her boss DPP Prez Tsai.  Of course one reason why Tsai picked Chen to be her COS is for her to "manage" New Tide faction for her.

The old New Tide faction MO is "do not be King but be Kingmaker".  New Lai is breaking with tradition.  I think New Tide faction might break down the Middle where Southern New Tide/Tainan sub-faction of New Tide will back Lai and the Northern New Tide/Chen sub-faction will back Tsai.  In which case the New Tide faction splits down the middle.  And Lai better win the primary because if he losses it is as if a key Satrap tried to overthrow the emperor and fails.  The said Satrap and his family and the region he lead will be in big political trouble. 

Lai is taking a huge gamble in doing this.  It is said that key New Tide members who knew about Lai's decision have  been trying desperately to get him not to throw his hat into the ring and instead wait for 2024.  They argue, potentially correctly, that Tsai will most likely lose 2020 so Lai can pick up the pieces to lead DPP in 2024.  I guess Lai felt that a) 2020 still might be winnable b) Potential winners from outside the DPP like Chu, Ko or Han could come to power and make a deal with the PRC which he felt he had to come in and stop and c) If someone like Chu or Ko or Han wins in 2020 then it will be very hard to defeat them in 2024 when they run for re-election and that means Lai's chance is 2028 in which case he will be old News and not even in the running to lead the DPP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2019, 03:49:54 PM »

In Jan 2020 there will also be legislative elections.  There are 73 FPTP seats, 6 aborigine seats (2 3- member districts for Mountain and Plains aborigines respectively) and 34 PR seats (meant to represent Overseas Chinese and also ROC territory on Mainland China but these days are just regular PR seats.)

I wrote something a while ago on the results based on the aggregate lean of districts.  Even if Ko were to run for Prez he will most likely have very few solid FPTP candidate for the "Ko Party."  Right now the election in 2020 looks like a Blue +4 to Blue +6 election so most likely it will be something like Pan-Blues 77 Pan-Green 36 which would be a 2012 election redux.

Looking ahead to 2020 Legislative elections, one can use the same PVI logic on ROC districts to see what would be generic results of the ROC legislative races given a particular Blue-Green lean.  ROC Legislature is made up of 73 FPTP seats, 6 Aborigine seats, and 34 PR seats.  Overall the 73 FPTP seats are fairly symmetrical in terms of seat distribution given a particular lean.  The 6 Aborigine seats lean heavily toward Blue camp while the 34 PR seats lean toward the Green camp since the NP has a floor of 3% but is unlikely to cross the 5% threshold while other smaller Pan-Green either are tiny or, like NPP, will pass the 5% threshold for sure.

I look at the Blue+8 Blue+6 Blue+4 Blue+2 Even Green+2 Green+4 Green+6 Green+8 scenarios.

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
Blue+8         58        15        6            0            20     14        84    29
Blue+6         56        17        6            0            19     15        81    32
Blue+4         50        23        6            0            18     16        74    39
Blue+2         43        30        6            0            17     17        66    47
Even            36        37        5            1            16     18        57    56
Green+2      29        44        5            1            16     18        50    63
Green+4      24        49        5            1            15     19        44    69
Green+6      17        56        5            1            14     20        36    77
Green+8      16        57        4            2            13     21        33    80

If we look at the 2008 2012 2016 results (2008 was the first year ROC had this FPTP system versus multi-member districts)

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
2008            60        13        6            0            20     14        86    27     Blue+8 election
2012            46        27        6            0            18     16        70    43     Blue+4.5 election
2016            20        53        5            1            14     20        39    74     Green+6.5 election

Which matches the chart above fairly well.

For 2020 I think the most likely scenario right now is a narrow Tsai re-election with a Green+1 election and a very narrow Pan-Green legislative majority.  In such a case the DPP regime will need the support of Pan-Green "ally" NPP to pass laws.

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
2020           33        40        5            1            16     18        54    59     Green+1 election
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2019, 08:20:34 AM »

ROC CEC announces that Prez and Legislative elections will be on Jan 11 2020.
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jaichind
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2019, 08:59:06 AM »

DPP Prez "primary" schedule. 

3/18-3/22 Candidates register.  ex-PM Lai already registered and DPP Prez Tsai is expected to register within the next day or two.
3/27-4/2 DPP party tries to facilitate discussion between the candidates to see if any want to stand down in favor of the other.
4/4-4/9 Televised debates between the candidates
4/10-4/12 Several pollsters conduct polls on behalf of the DPP whose results and then averaged
4/17 Poll results announced and DPP announces the DPP candidate for Prez.

This "primary" will be an "open primary" in the sense that the pollsters will ask "who do you support to be the DPP candidate for Prez?  Tsai or Lai" with no filter for only just DPP or just Pan-Green supporters.   Since there is no KMT candidates yet the poll will not test  how Tsai or Lai does with general election opponents as the 2012 DPP "primary"  did since in 2012 KMT's Ma was the incumbent president. 

Since yesterday a bunch of non-New Tide DPP office holders came out to back Tsai while only some Southern New Tide faction office holders came out to back Lai.  Tsai is clearly winning the enforcement battle.    Of course part of it is moral.  It is just seem as bad form for so many DPP MPs who got elected in 2016 on the Tsai tailcoat to come out for Lai.  I would read any silence by DPP office holders are being de facto pro-Lai.   In an "open primary" it seems Lai should have the edge given the negativity of Pan-Blue and independent voters toward Tsai.

So now Tsai has a strategic dilemma.  If she goes ahead with the primary she faces a likely defeat and humiliation.  One way she can win is to shift to the center and attack Lai as a pro-Taiwan Independence and turn Pan-Blue and independent voters against Lai pro-Taiwan Independence agenda.  The problem is that if she does that she just handed a powerful weapon to the KMT in the general election who will just replay all of Tsai's attacks on Lai against the DPP candidate, regardless of who it ends up being.  So Tsai has a decision to make before 4/2.  Either she starts to catch up to Lai in the polls before 4/2 or she should go all out to attack Lai for his pro-Taiwan Independence position or she should consider dropping out to avoid a humiliating defeat in the DPP "primary" as a sitting president (like LBJ in Jan 1968.)

Lai has his own problems.  His run is based on a premise that the Tsai administration has gone wrong but he was the PM of the Tsai regime for over a year so how does he wash himself of this.  Also just like Michael Heseltine in 1990 UK CON party leadership race, the one that commits regicide usually does not end up with the crown even if it was necessary for the party to survive.  In many ways Ed Miliband turning on his brother in 2010 stained his image with an immoral act that he was not able to win a winnable election in 2015.  Many in DPP might be relived at Lai showing up to give the DPP a chance in 2020 but once Tsai is removed they will all start saying "what have we done?" and start turning on Lai.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2019, 09:38:51 AM »
« Edited: March 19, 2019, 04:33:57 PM by jaichind »

One thing I never really get about the Lai challenge is that he clearly has become the candidate of pro-independence bloc within the DPP.  The pro-independence bloc which is also allied with DPP ex-Prez Chen has been unhappy with DPP Prez Tsai since 2017 hand have been scheming to try to overthrow Tsai one way or another since then.  

What is not clear to me is why is the pro-independence bloc doing this?   DPP Prez Tsai is pretty much going as far as she reasonably can to push the pro-independence and anti-unification agenda.  

One theory is that the pro-independence bloc are purists and demand that with a DPP legislative majority Tsai should just abolish ROC and declare the creation of a Republic of Taiwan.  I am not sure what is the level of sanity of the pro-independence bloc if this is the case because if she did that the PLA will be forced to invade and the USA will view the PRC as being provoked and mostly stay out of the way.

Another theory is more conventional.  The pro-Independence bloc actually include key wealthy individuals with large industrial and landed interests.  Early in the Tsai administration many of them asks for roles in the government for their cronies and most of those requests were rejected by Tsai and her PM Lin.  This provoked a conflict between Tsai and the pro-independence bloc.

One last theory has to do with the social conservationism of the pro-independence bloc.  There are two types of Taiwan Independence.  Left Independence and Right Independence.  Left Independence is a lot larger and mostly are for Independence due to different social economic and political systems between ROC and PRC.  They tend not to reject their ethnic identity as Chinese but view Taiwan as a separate Chinese state (like Egypt is a separate Arab state) and does not rule out unification if the PRC and ROC social systems somehow converge.  Right independence are socially conservative and tend to reject the Chinese identity at the ethnic and for some even at the biological/genetic level.   Right Independence size are small but a lot more organized and contains a bunch of wealthly individuals.  It is Right Independence that make up most of the money and organisation of the pro-independence bloc.  This group at some level is resentful of Tsai as a women (and unmarried at that) leader and earlier in 2016-2017 also held pro-gay marriage positions which she mostly quietly retracted.  Of course the Right Independence bloc knows that DPP is the only game in town to make progress on Taiwan Independence and part of the DPP coalition does include urban progressives so Right Independence tends to keep quite about their socially conservative views.  But what they can do is to overthrow DPP leaders that does not jive with their socially conservative views  using the excuse that they are not "pure" enough on Taiwan Independence.

The fact is even if Lai wins the DPP nomination and becomes ROC Prez in 2020 unless he wants a full scale invasion from the PLA his policies will be pretty much the same as Tsai today as far as Mainland China policy is concerned.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2019, 07:33:49 AM »

In a certain way, even as an opponent of DPP Prez Tsai and her policies, I feel sort of sorry for what the DPP is doing to her.   She came in after the disastrous 2008 elections when the DPP was left for dead and made it competitive with the KMT again within a year.  I get she is not popular now and most likely would lead the DPP to defeat in 2020. 

But it seems that if Lai and the pro-independence faction want to get rid of her what they should have done in Dec is to have a private meeting with her and say "Look, you lead us to a disastrous 2018 local election and it is clear with you at the head of the 2020 campaign we are looking at a complete wipe-out.  We implore you to step aside in the 2002 April DPP primaries where Lai here will come in and become that DPP nominee in 2020.  It is not that Lai is assured of winning given the shape of the DPP you have led us into but at least he could save some seats down-ballot. If you do not, understand that Lai will run in the 2020 April DPP primary and challenge you for the DPP nomination.  Her are some polls we did that shows that he will beat you by mile in such a contested primary.  Feel free to do your own and you will the the same results.  If you choose to not contest the 2020 DPP primary back back Lai you can continue to be honored as DPP party elder and you will be treated with respect due to person of your accomplishments including saving the DPP in 2008.  It is up to you." Now if Tsai chooses to go ahead with contesting the April 2020 DPP primary she cannot fault Lai for jumping in.

Instead of this it seems Lai and the pro-independence bloc has led Tsai to believe until the last minute that he will not contest in the 2020 April DPP primaries.  Tsai, believing this, announced publicly and in an interview with CNN that she will for sure run for re-election.  Now Lai ambushed her to jumping in at the last minute put her in a situation where she has to be humiliated by dropping out after saying pretty insistently that she will run for re-election or be beaten in an contested primary as the incumbent.  It is not why Lai and his gang find the need to do this to her who, after all, is still the de facto leader of the DPP.   I think doing this is already producing some sort of sympathy wave within the DPP for Tsai. Not sure if it is enough to her to win but I think Lai's victory in the DPP primary is for sure not assured.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2019, 06:40:47 PM »

Chinatimes polls on general election race after Lai came out to run in the DPP Prez Primary

KMT Han  36.3
DPP Lai    24.3
Ko           18.6

KMT Han  35.2
Ko           23.1
DPP Tsai   18.6

KMT Han   47.2
DPP Lai     33.6

KMT Han  51.2
DPP Tsai   27.3

KMT Chu  36.9
Ko           23.8
DPP Lai    22.3

KMT Chu   37.2
DPP Lai     36.1



So if it is Chu vs Lai without Ko then Lai has a shot, otherwise Lai does better than Tsai but still will lose.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2019, 08:23:27 AM »

Pro-Tsai NextGen think-tank poll
 
KMT Han   35.4
DPP Tsai    29.6
Ko            25.9



KMT Han   32.9
DPP Tsai   31.3
Ko            25.7



DPP Tsai-Lai ticket   34.3
KMT Han                32.8
Ko                         22.3


The narrative the Tsai camp want to send is clear: Yes, Lai does better than Tsai but not by much and both will lose to Han if he ran for KMT.  BUT if Lai joined forces with Tsai to form a Tsai-Lai ticket then DPP could win.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2019, 08:28:55 AM »

TVBS poll on Prez election with change, if any, from Jan 2019 poll

Ko           33 (-3)
KMT Chu  27 (-3)
DPP Tsai   19 (+4)

Ko           30 (-3)
KMT Chu  26 (-4)
DPP Lai    26 (+5)

KMT Han   38
Ko            28
DPP Tsai   18

KMT Han   37
DPP Lai     25
Ko            24

The fact that the DPP are gaining make sense as the DPP race is constantly in the news so inactive pro-DPP voters are more likely to respond to polls.   Also voters know that the "primary" is coming  so those which are not supporters of DPP or are undecided but have preference between Tsai and Lai are more winning to indicate support for one or the other when polled.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2019, 03:56:46 PM »

Between 3/27-4/2 the DPP Chairperson (who is pro-Tsai) will be working directly with Tsai and Lai camps to see if either side could drop out and back the other candidate.  If that fails then he has to work out with the two camps the nature of the poll that will be used to determine the winner.

The poll could be a head to head matchup: "Do you support Tsai or Lai for the DPP nomination for Prez" or a series of match-ups with possible opponents (like KMT's Chu, KMT's Han and Ko) and see which one does better in trial heats with these opponents.  The poll could also be and "open primary" and include every respondent or be a "closed primary" and filter out Pan-Blue or even independent voters and only Pan-Green voter preference count. 

Again the DPP Chairman will have to facilitate negotiations on these details.       
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2019, 04:00:58 PM »

Confronted with an existential treat to her re-election, Tsai is finally coming out swinging against her opponents within the DPP.  She did not focus on Lai but instead attacked the misogyny of her opponents within the DPP.  This sorts fit my narrative that part of the reason the pro-independence bloc within the DPP is opposed to Tsai is less about her not being pro-Independence enough but their social conservationism.  She is certainly seeing it this way and want to mobilize urban progressives on her side against the pro-independence but socially conservative bloc within the DPP power base.     
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2019, 04:06:09 PM »

The ROC version of Predictit  Xfutures (http://xfuture.org/) has Tsai as the slight favorite.  Trading there has  Tsai odds winning at 57% and Lai's chances at 43%.  Historically Xfutures tend to overestimate DPP over KMT and overestimate incumbents versus challengers. But this sort of betting odds fits my narrative that Tsai has a solid short even though most commentators seems certain that Lai will win.     
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2019, 09:31:42 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2019, 09:03:55 AM by jaichind »

Now that its been a few days since Lai jumped into the DPP primary we can sort of piece together the various spy vs spy battles behind the scenes between the Tsai and Lai blocs and how ex-DPP Prez Chen formed an tactical alliance with Lai to help him win Round 1 vs Tsai
  

It seems Tsai always saw Lai as a major rival and threat.  It was revealed that back in 2015 Lai who was just re-elected as the mayor of Tainan was going to challenge Tsai for the DPP Prez nomination for the 2016 race but backed down under pressure.  After Tsai election in 2016 and things started to go wrong by 2017 she saw that Lai would be a threat to her in the 2020 DPP nomination race.  So she acted to
1) Make Lai the PM (keep your friends close and enemy closer)
2) Make Kaoshiung Mayor Chen who is a key New Tide faction leader her COS so Chen can help Tsai control the New Tide faction and remove a support based for Lai

3) Make sure the New Tide, specially the North sub-faction, gets their fair share of political spoils so they will not back a Lai bid in the 2020 DPP Prez primaries

After the 2018 local elections which ended in disaster for the DPP Tsai main strategy is
1) Put pressure on Lai to stay on as PM so she turn 2020 into a Tsai-Lai ticket
2) Start promoting re-elected Taoyuan mayor Cheng(鄭文燦) as the next gen DPP leader and start grooming Cheng as the DPP 2024 Prez candidate and block off Lai political advancement and get Cheng and his supporters to back Tsai

3) Rally all non-New Tide factions behind Tsai
4) Ensure the election of a pro-Tsai Chairperson of DPP after Tsai has to resign from that post due the the 2018 DPP defeat

As the result of DPP MP Huang(黃偉哲) from the Tainan 2nd distirct being elected Tainan mayor in 2018 a by-election was necessary which was scheduled  for 3/16.  The KMT political superstar and Tainan City MLA Hsieh(謝龍介) was going to run and the DPP Hign command figured it would be a tough race given the anti-DPP tide


The Tsai bloc decided to nominate Guo(郭國文) who is a Tainan City MLA from the New Tide faction who is very close to Lai on the premise that a likely poor performance, win or lose would reflect badly on Lai.  


The DPP high command then set the date to sign up for the 2020 DPP Prez primary for 3/18 2 days after the 3/16 to make sure that Lai would not have the face to try to run 2 days after a poor DPP performance in how own backyard with a candidate that is close to him.

It is at this stage that DPP ex-Prez Chen stepped in and pull off one of the best political stratagems in recent times.  DPP ex-Prez Chen was arrested and jailed for corruption after and was released on medical parole in 2015.  


His goal is to get a pardon from a sitting ROC Prez.  The main problem is he has strong support with the Pan-Green based but is reviled by the independents and Pan-Blue voters so Tsai pretty much refuses to consider pardon.  

So ex-DPP Prez Chen, it seems hatched a scheme.   There was a pro-DPP MLA in Tainan City Guo(郭秀珠) who was very close to DPP ex-Prez Chen's family and is the goddaughter of DPP ex-Prez Chen's mother


Guo's husband was actually a KMT head of a local township in DPP ex-Prez Chen hometown back in the 1990s when the KMT was still strong in Tainan but this political couple went over to the Pan-Green camp as Chen gained political prominence.  Guo was narrowly defeated in the 2018 local elections and was looking for her daughter Chen(陳筱諭) to get into politics.
 

It seems DPP ex-Prez Chen went to his very close family friend Guo and told her that her daughter Chen(陳筱諭) should jump into the Tainan 2nd distirct by-election as as an anti-New Tide DPP rebel and she could win by running on an pro DPP ex-Prez Chen candidate.  To Guo this seems to make sense as DPP ex-Prez Chen was pretty hostile to the New Tide faction even as he was not a fan of DPP Prez Tsai.  So Chen(陳筱諭) jumped into the race and ran on her relationship with DPP ex-Prez Chen


This made DPP's defeat in the by-election very likely and actually was playing into the Tsai bloc to ensure an embarrassing result for Lai.  Lai, in desperation threw himself into the by-election campaign and it seems made a deal with DPP ex-Prez Chen who a few days before the by-election actually endorsed Lai's candidate and the official DPP candidate Guo(郭國文).

As a result when polls a few days before the election showed the likely result to be

KMT          45   Hsieh(謝龍介)
DPP          40   Guo(郭國文)
DPP rebel  15   Chen(陳筱諭)

the result as turned to be on 3/16

DPP          47.2%  (New Tide)
KMT         44.4%
DPP rebel   7.8%  (anti-New Tide and backed by Ko)
Minor         0.4%
Minor         0.2%

After DPP ex-Prez Chen backed the DPP candidate.  

The 3/18 Lai on a political momentum high with the help with DPP ex-Prez Chen registered for the 2020 DPP Prez primary on a plank of granting a pardon for DPP ex-Prez Chen (which I assume had to be the price for DPP ex-Prez Chen for endorsing Guo(郭國文).  It seems ex-Prez Chen planned all this by getting Chen(陳筱諭) into the race to create a crisis for Lai who then had to work with DPP ex-Prez Chen to give him the momentum to jump into the race.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2019, 03:10:55 PM »

By early April the DPP will have to make a call working with the Tsai and Lai camps on what sort of polling question will be used in the DPP "primary."  It will have decided if should be a direct Tsai vs Lai contest poll or a comparison poll of Tsai and Lai versus potential general election rivals (KMT Chu, KMT Han, Ko etc etc.)

It is clear that the Tsai camp will push for a "Tsai vs Lai" poll while the Lai camp will push for a relative comparison of match-ups with general election rivals.  This is because Lai in in the strange position of being more popular than Tsai in general election matchups but is seen as more radical of the two DPP candidates.  This comes from the fact that pan-Green pro-DPP but now Ko supporters will most likely be for Lai in the general election but will mostly vote Ko if Tsai represented the DPP.  Now, in a head-to-head poll between Tsai and Lai pan-Blue voters will be for Tsai on both counts as she is the weaker of the two DPP candidates and closer ideologically to the Pan-Blue position than Lai.

We will see in early April how "rigged" this primary is when the DPP will need to arbitrate between these two positions.   And the DPP team led by Chairperson that will need to arbitrate are filled with Tsai cronies.  To be fair if you look at this objectively the logical way to do this would be a Tsai vs Lai poll on the premise that the KMT have not had their "primary" get so you do not know who will be the KMT candidate and you do not know if Ko will run.  So any relative comparison poll will need to make assumptions about the nature of the general election.  I think it is for this reason the ROC predict site (xfutures) has it now at something like Tsai 58% Lai 42% as far as the winner of the DPP primary.   
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2019, 06:19:19 PM »

The Green Party came out with a poll

Tsai vs Lai

Lai    44.6
Tsai  33.5



But bizarrely if you look at cross-tabs

          Pan-Blue       Pan-Green
Lai          51.3            37.2
Tsai        26.5             55.9

Lai does better with Pan-Blue voters and Tsai does better with Pan-Green voters.  This would be as if in 2012 Sanders challenged Obama for the Dem nomination but Sanders polls better with GOP voters while Obama poll better with Dem voters.  Only way to explain it is the anti-DPP and anti-Tsai feeling is so strong with Pan-Blue voter they would be for anyone other than Tsai, even a radical like Lai.

Trial heat

KMT Han   45.3
DPP Tsai    38.0



KMT Han   44.7
DPP Lai    38.7


So this poll turns conventional wisdom on its head where it is expected that Tsai should do better head to head against Lai but fare worse if it is a comparison vs general election opponents.  This polls says the opposite.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2019, 05:18:17 AM »

I just heard VP is NOT seeking reelection.

Yeah. VP Chen (who is an academic and a political independent but was picked by Tsai in 2016 to appeal to moderates) said he will not run.  The is the work of the Tsai faction to put pressure on Lai to call off his primary challenge and accept a Tsai-Lai ticket.   The Tsai faction wants to create a narrative that VP Chen is able to take part in self-sacrifice for the greater good and that Lai should do the same.  Most likely will not work.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2019, 01:31:19 PM »


Not yet.  I think there is still a good chance (>50%) that she beats Lai in the DPP primary with some help from her cronies in DPP high command to "rig" the polls by having a favorable set of poll questions.  In the general there is a solid chance that Ko will run and if she can paint both Ko and the KMT candidate (be it Han or Chu) as pro-Unification candidates then she could win by holding on the the core DPP vote and having the KMT and Ko split the rest.   All these possible futures hang by a shoestring but it is possible and does give Tsai hope she can win. 
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2019, 01:35:19 PM »

With the DPP "primary" campaigning period beginning, it is interesting to see the steps Tsai and Lai are taking.  Lai in theory is the Taiwan Independence radical but seem to be trying to move to the center.  I assume he is trying to deal with a "open primary" where it will be a "Tsai vs Lai" poll for the general public that will get used.  Tsai is moving in the opposite direction taking on a more pro-Taiwan independence  position and increasing the amount of Hoklo dialect (she is really bad a it) in her speeches.  It seems she is looking to fight a "closed primary" where the poll will only ask Pan-Green voters.  It would be interesting to see what DPP high command does in terms of the primary rules.  Of course understand that DPP high command are just puppets/cronies of Tsai.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2019, 10:30:35 AM »

How did she go from being the most popular after the scandal-plauged Ma Ying-jeou Presidency to becoming the most unpopular President in Taiwanese history ?



I think she misread the mandate in 2016 much like Ma did in 2008.  Ma over-compromised with Pan-Green forces.  Tsai made the opposite mistake.  Tsai though that if she can nulify the KMT money advantage a long lasting DPP majority could be built. So she invested a bunch of political capital into freezing KMT assets.  The reality is the KMT money edge has not bee decisive since the early 2000s so this was a fools errand.   She also over-promised in 2016 on issues like pension reform, energy policy and gay rights without pointing out real tradeoffs that the DPP position would entail.  And when she tried to push forward the DPP agenda sticker shock drove voters away from Tsai.

As for Ma I would say scandal wise its is better than under DPP Chen who himself got locked up for corruption.  On the other side Ma who is personally very clean had over-promised in 2008 on the nature of the incoming KMT regime with respect to corruption so just like Tsai after 2016 the Ma regime took a hammering in 2013 when various scandals came out.  On this topic there is an argument that  perhaps the DPP is better off losing in 2020.  Various scandals tend to come out in the second term and it is clear there will be a world recession sometime in 2020 or later.  In many ways 2020 is a poison chalice.  And if the DPP wins in 2020 then the 2022 ROC local election will be a DPP bloodbath of epic proportions exceeding the 2005 and 2018 KMT landslides as well as the 2014 DPP landslide.  I can see the DPP in 2022 literally end up with 1-3 counties/cities out of 22.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #23 on: April 02, 2019, 06:13:15 PM »

Pro-Green Formosa (but mostly pro-Ko but would back Tsai over Lai) poll

KMT Han 32.1 Ko 28.3 DPP Lai 26.8
KMT Han 45.5 DPP Lai 39.8
KMT Han 35.4 Ko 27.8 DPP Tsai 22.6
KMT Han 49.5 DPP Tsai 34.5

Ko 32.8 DPP Lai 25.1 KMT Chu 25.1
DPP Lai 40.6 KMT Chu 38.2
Ko 32.4 KMT Chu 24.6 DPP Tsai 23.2
KMT Chu 40.8 DPP Tsai 35.8


Since we are in DPP Primary season the DPP support are most artificially high.   I think overall if Lai and/or Ko runs then the KMT will lean toward drafting Han.  DPP runs Tsai and Ko does not get into the race then most likely the KMT will go with Chu.  KMT pretty much will decide in June so they have last mover advantage.  Of course this delay is causing chaos and infighting over the nature of the KMT primary and process issues over a potential Han Draft.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #24 on: April 02, 2019, 06:16:30 PM »

I also note that Tsai's foreign policy has been a mixed bag considering 5 so-called "friends" dumped her since she's been in office:

1.) Panama: considering she visited the country back in 2016.

2.) Sao Tome & Principe

3.) Dominican Republic

4.) Burkina Faso

5.) El Salvador: Tsai also visited this country as well.



Well, this is not directly Tsai's fault.  What took place in 2008 was the ROC and PRC agreed to a "diplomatic truce" based on the "1992 Consensus" which is: Both side agrees there is only One China but both sides get to proclaim what is that One China.

In 2016 DPP took over and choose to reject the "1992 Consensus" so the PRC went on the diplomatic offensive and poached a bunch of states that recognized the ROC.  This is not longer the 1990s when both PRC and ROC were in the same league when it comes to cash to buy off micro-states to back  ROC or not.  The resource gap these days are just too massive in favor of PRC.
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