ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[xelas81]

Apple Daliy poll after the  cigarettes smuggling scandal  broke

2-way
KMT Han   37.8(-0.6)
DPP Tsai    35.4(-2.5)


3-way
KMT Han   32.6(-0.6)
DPP Tsai   29.6(-3.1)
Ko            23.3(-0.1)


So Tsai loses ground but Han does not gain ground.  It seems this entire draft Han movement is not working out for KMT.  He has limited appeal beyond his core base. And now he has to run with the burden of abandoning Kaohsiung which he was just elected mayor in 2018.  KMT should have gone with Guo and even Chu.  Water under the bridge.  I have a bad feeling about this and once get past this she is in a good shape to win re-election.  KMT and Han just have to hope Tsai will get hit with scandal after scandal between now and Jan 2020.

Xfutures odds

KMT Han   42
DPP Tsai    39
Ko            19

It seems the futures market which has a pro-Green historically to be fair is also coming to the conclusion that Han's low ceiling does give both Tsai and Ko a chance.   

How much Han's approval in Kaohsiung went down when he entered the race for president shortly after being elected as the mayor?

[xelas81]

There are also rumors that ex-DPP Prez Chen will also turn his cross-party political 一邊一國連線 (One Side One Country Alliance) or OSOCA into a party 一邊一國行動黨 One Side One Country Party or OSOCP.  Not sure what is the point of this.  There already is a pro-Chen Right Independence party that just got created which is 喜樂島聯盟 (Formosa Alliance) or FA.  Not sure why we need two pro-Chen Right Independence parties.

All this DPP splinters and now Ko's TPP will most likely eat into NPP as the pro-Green but anti-DPP alternative.  I think in 2020 NPP will be sunk and might end up with no seats even if it forms a de facto  alliance with DPP most of its vote base will migrate to these DPP splinter or Ko's TPP. 

I thought NPP was left independence and youth-heavy party. Maybe they will lose some some voters to Ko's and Chen's party but won't their core base still would vote for NPP?
Also if Chen forms new party would that mean he would also run for Prez?

[xelas81]

It is a bit early but it makes sense to come up with some initial projections of how the legislative races will look like and comparison to 2016 (note there were some redistricting since 2016)

                                          2020                           2016
District                           KMT   DPP         KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
Taipei City (臺北市)            7        1             5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     7        5             2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         1        0             0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        5        1             2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          1        0             0      1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0             1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0             2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        5        3             3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0            2       0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2        2            1       3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        0        2            0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1            0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2            0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6            0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     0        8            0       9                             (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        2            0       3                             (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0        1            0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1        0            0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1            0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     0         1            0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0            1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0             1       0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    37       36           20      49     1        3

Doing well in New Taipei City (新北市), Taoyuan City (桃園市) and Taichung City(臺中市)  will decisive for KMT to win a majority.

2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        17           3     12   2

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 58 NPB 1 = 59
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 49 NPP 2= 51
TPP                                                                 TPP 3

This is assuming that TPP loses ground due to Guo not running and giving the DPP the benefit of the doubt in many tossup districts.  The downside is greater for the DPP.  I can see DPP easily losing 3-5 district seats on top of my projections.   Overall it gives the KMT is very small majority.

Would NPP even make the 5% threshold?
NPP only won 6.11% in 2016, so any big drop in support would put them below the threshold.

[xelas81]

What do you dislike about the Green Party's positions? I know very little about the party other than that it's a broadly center-left third party and is unaffiliated with both the DPP and the Pan-Green coalition. Are Taiwan's anti-nuclear policies more due to the Green Party or the DPP?

Although the party is sympathetic to Taiwan nationalism and shares a number of centre-left positions with the Pan-Green Coalition, the party emphasizes campaigning primarily on social and environmental issues. The party is not a member of, and should not be confused with, the Pan-Green Coalition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_Taiwan

jaichind is libertarian who supports unification of China

[xelas81]

Kaohsiung recall election is tomorrow.  For Han to be recalled more voters have to vote against Han than for (a certainty since Han has called for his supporters not to vote) and the total vote againist Han to be more than 25% of VAP which is around 575K.    In the 2020 Prez election DPP Tsai won around 1.1 million votes so as long as half the pan-Green vote turns out Han will be recalled which at this stage seems fairly likely.  I would put the recall chances at around 80%.  Most polling has around around 35% of VAP willing to come out to vote and vote against Han.  Even if that over-estimates turnout I recon around 30% of VAP should come out to vote against Han and most likely another 3% of VAP will come out to vote in favor of Han.

So who becomes the mayor of Kaohsiung if the recall is successful?
Is there by-election?