ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

Since the PR count is only 55% done or so there still could be shifts.  As more votes comes in from urban areas I suspect TPP is the party that will gain.

If TPP gains enough it will change it from

DPP 14
KMT 13
TPP   4
NPP   3

to
DPP 13
KMT 13
TPP   5
NPPT 3

[Novelty]

I smell a story in Hualian...

[jaichind]

KMT Chairperson Wu will of course resign. He was the KMT hero of 2018 ROC local elections along with Han and now both are KMT villains for throwing away a winnable election. Wu put himself on the 14th member of the KMT list only for KMT to win 13 seats.

[jaichind]

I smell a story in Hualian...

You mean KMT rebel and ex-country magistrate bets out the DPP incumbent and  the official KMT candidate.  Yeah, that was baked in already.

The legislative shock of the night is Taichung City(臺中市) 2nd seat which was considered one of the safest of KMT seats and a pocket brough of the powerful pro-KMT Yen family sees the KMT candidate who is the son of the Yen patriarch in a neck-to-neck race with a DPP backed TSP candidate who only ran because the DPP was to chicken to run anyone there.  In the end there must been some local KMT factions in the district who had enough of the Yen family and shifted over to TSP (which is not DPP even though it is extreme pro-Independence).

[jaichind]

It is now

DPP Tsai    57.5%
KMT Han   38.3%
PFP Soong   4.2%

DPP Tsai well ahead of her 2016 56.1% vote share.  Amazing accomplishment.

[Novelty]

The legislative shock of the night is Taichung City(臺中市) 2nd seat

I was wondering what's the story there too and why the DPP isn't running.  The other one I'm wondering is what's happening in Taipei District 5 and why there are so many independents there.

[jaichind]

PR vote actually is moving away from DPP and toward TPP like I said

PR only around 30% of the vote has been counted so far but it is:

DPP(民主進步黨)                                                34.4%
KMT(中國國民黨)                                                33.2%
TPP(台灣民眾黨)                                                 11.1%
NPP(時代力量)                                                     7.7%
PFP(親民黨)                                                        3.6%
TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進)          3.2% (economic Right radical independence)
GP(Green Party) (綠黨)                                       2.3% (Urban progressive pan-Green)
TPAP(Taiwan Action Party Alliance)(一邊一國行動黨)1.1% (pro-Chen Right radical independence)
NP (New Party) (新黨)                                         1.0% (KMT radical unification splinter)
SFP (Stabilizing Force Party)(安定力量)                  0.7% (Christian conservative Pan-Blue)
TSU(Taiwan Solidarity Union)(台灣團結聯盟)           0.4% (KMT pro-Independence splinter)
CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟)          0.3% (KMT splinter)
UP (Unionist Party)(中華統一促進黨)                       0.2% (Right radical unification)
IU(Interfaith Union)(宗教聯盟)                              0.2% (pan-Green social conservative)
FA((Formosa Alliance)(喜樂島聯盟)                        0.2% (Social conservative radical independence)
LP (Labor Party)(勞動黨)                                      0.1% (radical Left unification)
UAA(United Action Alliance) (合一行動聯盟)            0.1% (Christian Right Unification)
TRP(Taiwan Renewal Party)(台灣維新)                   0.1% (Light Green DPP splinter)
SSFPP(台澎黨)                                                    0.1% (radical independence)
 
Which will work out to be

DPP   14
KMT   13
TPP     4
NPP     3

with DPP pretty close to losing a seat to TPP

It is roughly

Pan-Green 49.7
Pan-Blue   39.3
TPP          11.1

[jaichind]

The legislative shock of the night is Taichung City(臺中市) 2nd seat

I was wondering what's the story there too and why the DPP isn't running.  The other one I'm wondering is what's happening in Taipei District 5 and why there are so many independents there.

Taipei City (臺北市) 5th had a NPP incumbent that was election in 2016 with DPP support.  NPP have since broken with DPP so the NPP incumbent became an independent so he can run with DPP support.  In the meantime a predominate KMT rebel with pro-Ko ties also ran with TPP support.  This KMT rebel most likely cost the KMT this seat which was lost as I expected.

[jaichind]

Well I guess my vision of a hapless second DPP Tsai regime with no mandate and unworkable legislature did not come to pass.  Still once they are back they will face the same problems of governance and if and when the world economic slowdown comes and the PRC issue is not as salient I still expect the DPP to take a hammering in the 2022 ROC local election and most likely 2024 general elections as well. 

[jaichind]

Main problem for DPP Tsai now is they should not try to over-read their mandate.  The PR section now is

Pan-Greens  49.5%
Pan-Blues    39.4%
TPP             11.1%

So my guess that 60% of TPP voters voted Tsai is more like 70%.  What that says is a good chuck of the DPP Tsai vote is really an anti-KMT Han vote as TPP platform is mostly 65% Pan-Blue and 35% Pan-Green.

[jaichind]

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) vote is

DPP Tsai     62.2%
KMT Han    34.6%
PFP Soong   3.1%

which is a massive defeat for KMT Han in the city he won in 2018 as mayor.  Question for DPP now is should they try to re-call Han or wait until 2020 to unseat him.  Trying to recall him might overplay their hand be seen as jumping the gun just like Han did by running for president so quickly after winning a shocking victory.

[jaichind]

Like I predicted, until 6pm the various media channels were all over the place ranging from Tsai-Han neck-to-neck to a narrow Tsai win to a massive Tsai win.  After 6pm everyone started to converge to real result since they were available.

[jaichind]

13.4 M votes already counted which already puts turnout at 70% at least and most likely more then that.  So while the Deep Blue vote that failed to turn up in 2016 turned up, it was matched by youth turnout as well as marginal voters that turned out to vote against KMT Han fulfilling the projection that higher turnout will benefit DPP Tsai.

[jaichind]

I smell a story in Hualian...

You mean KMT rebel and ex-country magistrate bets out the DPP incumbent and  the official KMT candidate.  Yeah, that was baked in already.

Just to be clear, this KMT rebel, Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁), is most likely a feature and not a bug.  He is the ex-country magistrate and the husband of the current KMT county magistrate.  He is very popular in the county but is viewed a crook by urban counties.  So the KMT could not run him without losing KMT support elsewhere.  So KMT ran a weak candidate against the DPP incumbent and this ex-county magistrate "rebelled" which a wink and nod from KMT high command who nominally supported the KMT candidate but de facto shifted their resources to Fu.

What I wrote about him in 2014

I would like to write the funny story of Hualian County magistrate Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁) who just won re-election as a way for me to deal with my depression over the KMT rout.

Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁)



Fu was a member of the KMT which has dominated Hualian County politics for decades.  In the 2004 County magistrate elections Fu failed to get the KMT nomination and switched over to the KMT splinter PFP and ran.  He was defeated by the official KMT candidate.  In 2009 he rejoined the KMT and worked to get the KMT nomination, but due to outstanding charges of corruption the KMT refused to nominate him. So he ran as an independent and beat the official KMT candidate with 56% of the vote.  

But even as he was being sworn in in December 2009, the progress continued into investigations into Fu's past for corruption.  To hedge himself, six days before he took office he divorced his wife Shu Chin-wei (徐榛蔚) citing irreconcilable differences.

Shu Chin-wei (徐榛蔚)


And then right before taking office he announced that he will appoint his ex-wife Shu lieutenant county magistrate so she would be in line to take over as county magistrate if he is charged and removed from office.  ROC law says that one cannot appoint a relative to such an office but nothing stops someone from appointing his ex-wife.  What is funny about this "divorce" is that after the divorce is that Shu "moved out" of Fu's house, just to move right next door.  As Fu was taking office after divorcing his wife six days earlier, they held hands and kissed several times during the entire ceremony.  After Fu took office, day in an day out Fu and his ex-wife lieutenant county magistrate pretty much spent all their time in office together including going to work and coming home at the same time.   During the 2012 ROC Prez elections, Fu endorsed the KMT candidate Ma, and both Fu and Shu campaigned for Ma together in various campaign events which also included them holding hands.  The Hualian County prosecution office also charged Fu and Shu with false divorce but Fu claimed he is being falsely charged.

Now, fast forward to the 2014 elections where Fu is running for re-election.  It was Fu running as an independent against the offocial KMT candidate.  There has been more progress in the investigations of  Fu and his corruption charges.   There was a risk that during the campaign Fu might be stripped from the right to even run for office. To hedge against this risk, Fu's ex-wife and current lieutenant county magistrate Shu also announced that she was running for the office of Hualian County magistrate as well.   The idea is that if Fu stopped from running and name taken off the ballot, then his political machine can push his vote to be shifted his ex-wife Shu who then will be elected.


This leads the the spectacle of Fu and Shu running at the same time against each other but showing up in campaign rallies as two rival candidates on paper but taking part in the same event.



There are even campaign posters with both candidates and names of both candidates on the poster.

The idea of the poster is although it is not said explicitly:  Please vote for Fu, but if Fu is charged and name taken off the ballot please vote Shu.



As it is Fu was allowed to run and won with 56% of the vote.  Shu actually captured 3% of the vote. Maybe some supporters of Fu did not get the memo that Fu was not being charged, yet, so he is eligible to take office if he wins.

[jaichind]

At 57.3% DPP Tsai will not cross KMT Ma's 2008 record of 58.5% but the number of votes she how (almost 7.9MM) is a record beating out KMT Ma's 7.7MM votes in 2008.

[jaichind]

A couple of legislative seats where things went right for the KMT are

New Taipei City (新北市) 1st
KMT     46.4%
DPP     42.9%
NPP       7.6%

Hsinchu City(新竹市)
KMT     37.0%
DPP      31.9%
NPP      28.5%

Where the split of the Pan-Green votes threw the race to the KMT.

[jaichind]

On PR it is now

DPP  34.06%
KMT  33.31%
TPP   11.20%
NPP    7.75%

which means for now DPP lost its 14th seat to TPP to make it

DPP   13
KMT   13
TPP     5
NPP    3

which means Pan-Greens only have 16 out of 34 PR seats.

[jaichind]

It is now

DPP Tsai   57.2%
KMT Han  38.6%
PFP Soong  4.2%

Tsai crosses the 8MM vote mark to be at nearly 8.1MM votes.

[jaichind]

PR vote mostly done as well  it is

DPP(民主進步黨)                                                34.02%
KMT(中國國民黨)                                                33.33%
TPP(台灣民眾黨)                                                 11.21%
NPP(時代力量)                                                     7.75%
PFP(親民黨)                                                        3.66%
TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進)          3.17% (economic Right radical independence)
GP(Green Party) (綠黨)                                       2.41% (Urban progressive pan-Green)
NP (New Party) (新黨)                                         1.04% (KMT radical unification splinter)
TPAP(Taiwan Action Party Alliance)(一邊一國行動黨)1.02% (pro-Chen Right radical independence)
SFP (Stabilizing Force Party)(安定力量)                  0.67% (Christian conservative Pan-Blue)
TSU(Taiwan Solidarity Union)(台灣團結聯盟)           0.36% (KMT pro-Independence splinter)
CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟)          0.28% (KMT splinter)
UP (Unionist Party)(中華統一促進黨)                       0.23% (Right radical unification)
IU(Interfaith Union)(宗教聯盟)                              0.22% (pan-Green social conservative)
FA((Formosa Alliance)(喜樂島聯盟)                        0.21% (Social conservative radical independence)
LP (Labor Party)(勞動黨)                                      0.14% (radical Left unification)
UAA(United Action Alliance) (合一行動聯盟)            0.12% (Christian Right Unification)
TRP(Taiwan Renewal Party)(台灣維新)                   0.08% (Light Green DPP splinter)
SSFPP(台澎黨)                                                    0.08% (radical independence)

Which produces

DPP   13
KMT  13
TPP     5
NPP    3

Pan-Green  49.3%
Pan-Blue    39.5%
TPP            11.2%

What this showed was that DPP Tsai victory was really not a DPP victory but a victory of a United Front anti-Han candidate while potentially pro-Han forces are split leading to a crushing victory with the role of how the TPP PR vote went being ultra-critical

[KaiserDave]

Wooooo! Big win for Tsai!

[jaichind]

If seats stay with leads so far the Legislature will be

DPP        60  (46 district 1 aborigine 13 PR)
pro-DPP    4 (4 district)
KMT       39 (22 district 4 aborigine 13 PR)
pro-KMT   1  (1 district)
NPB          1 (1 aborigine)
NPP          3 (3 PR)
TPP          5 (5 PR)

With
Pan-Greens   67
Pan-Blues     41
TPP                5

which is a bit weaker for the Pan-Green bloc than what the KMT enjoyed in 2012-2016 when it was Pan-Blues   70
Pan-Greens 43

[jaichind]

Wooooo! Big win for Tsai!

Booo!!!

Only consolation for is the tight coupling between ROC and USA elections with KMT mapping to Dems and DPP mapping to GOP.

1996: KMT incumbents wins in comfortable re-election and Dem incumbent wins in conformable re-eletion

2000: DPP wins in a narrow election for an open seat, GOP wins in a narrow election for an open seat

2004: DPP win narrow re-election, GOP wins in a narrow re-eelction

2008: KMT wins in a massive landslide for an open seat, Dem wins a significant victory with largest vote share since 1964 for open seat

2012: KMT wins re-election with reduced majority, Dem wins re-election with reduced majority

2016: DPP wins massive victory for open seat, GOP wins largest electoral victory since 1988 for open seat

2020: DPP wins with increased vote share

So what will take place for USA in 2020? If trends holds true Trump wins for a increased share of the vote.

Frankly if Tsai winning means Trump wins re-election I will take that trade.

[jaichind]

On the topic of USA-ROC election coupling.  In 2012 when DPP Tsai ran for the first time against KMT Ma incumbent Ma, the DPP base was certain that KMT Ma would be defeated.  Polls show Ma with a small but significant lead but the DPP base rejected arguing that the polls had to be "unskewed" and had a collective meltdown election night 2012.  In 2012 USA election later in the year you had the same thing with GOP partisans saying that polls needs to be un-skewed and being certain that Romney would win.  I also was hopeful that Romeny had a reasonable shot at winning but in the Fall while reading pro-GOP political discussion posts I said to my self with a sinking feeling "Oh no, this sounds just like the pro-DPP posters earlier this year.  Sigh, so Obama is going win right ?"

[jaichind]

Turnout seems like will be around 75% from 66% in 2016.  4% of the increase are most likely Pan-Blue voters that did not turn out in 2016 to come out to vote KMT Han.  The rest are turnout of marginal voters that clearly leaned DPP Tsai.

[jaichind]

Other than the two Fujian Province counties, DPP Tsai won a majority of the vote in every county/city except for the deep Blue Hsinchu County (新竹縣) and Maioli County (苗栗縣).  What is funny is that these two counties have very high concentration of Hakkas while Tsai is a Hakka herself although her father is a fairly Hokloized Hakka so she barely knows any Hakka and frankly her Hoklo is not that great either.