ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

PFP Soong officially enters the race saying that this will be his last campaign.  This will be the 5th time his name will be on the ROC Prez election ballot: 2000 as proto-PFP and KMT rebel losing narrowly to DPP Chen and driving the KMT to a poor third, 2004 as the VP candidate of a KMT-PFP fusion ticket losing to Chen in a ultra narrow race, 2012 as PFP candidate and bombed as the Pan-Blue base shifted to back KMT Ma, and 2016 as PFP candidate and did quite well as a 3rd party candidate given the KMT implosion.

Soong started his PFP in 2000 as a Deep Blue force but as KMT went with Ma in 2008 who took over the Deep Blue space he has shifted his PFP to a Light Blue force.

Xfutures odds did not budge on this news

Xfutures winner of ROC Prez race
DPP Tsai   51
KMT Han  49

[jaichind]

First TVBS poll after the candidates and running mates are announced and registered has mostly no change (from 2 weeks ago)

DPP Tsai-Lai       45 (--)
KMT Han-Chang  38(--)
PFP Soong-Yu       8(-2)



The bad news for Han is that now that in this poll he has mostly consolidated the KMT vote yet he is 7 points behind.  TPP supporters and independents break significant for Tsai and for Han there is good reason to believe that a lot of undecided independents are non-KMT faction light blue voters that could break for Han in the end.  With Soong running which picks up some light blue voters Han at 38 does mean he is close to consolidating the Deep Blue and KMT factional light blue voters.

Party list vote

KMT    33    (-4)
DPP     23   (-2)
TPP     12    (+2)
NPP      5    (-1)
PFP      4    (+2)
NP       0.6 (-0.3)
GP       0.5 (+0.2)
TSU     0.2 (-0.8 )

Both the KMT and DPP had PR problems with their party list and both took hits for it which helps TPP and PFP.

With wild cards being taken off the table the Xfuture odds does shift slightly in Tsai's favor

Xfutures odds on 2020 ROC Prez winner
DPP Tsai    52
KMT Han   48

I am still confused on how odds of Han winning could still be 48 when he would be luck to have 1/3 odds at this stage.

[jaichind]

Family friend 范雲 (Fan Yun) who was the founder of the Left-Progressive pro-Independence SDP left the SDP to rejoin DPP and will be 4th on the DPP PR list which ensures that she will become a DPP MP.


She is currently a professor at Taiwan University.  She was an up and coming DPP leader but broke from the DPP due to the scandals of former DPP Prez Chen and founded SDP.  In 2016 SDP-Green ran on a join list and she ran in a Deep Blue Taipei district with the support of DPP.  That alliance since broke down.  But at the last minute she decided to come back to the DPP.  The DPP wanted her as she is symbolic of the urban progressive youth vote and having her on the list the DPP hopes to push up the urban progressive youth turnout for DPP.

[jaichind]

Another family friend of my is apparently in the race.  The founder of the GP professor 高成炎(Wang) who have mostly retired from politics for a decade or so will be on the #2 slot of the GP PR list.  Clearly GP will not cross 5% so he will not be elected.  But with the SDP-GP alliance falling through I guess the GP convinced him to run this year to try to push up the vote share of GP.

[jaichind]

Summery of various minor parties running in district and/or PR slate.

TPP (Taiwan People Party) (台灣民眾黨) - Ko outfit.  Ko started as Deep green but the platform of TPP is fairly anti-DPP and if anything leans slight Blue these days but the party clearly draws support from light blue and light green urban youth voters.

NPP(New People Power) (時代力量) - Deep Green party created as part of 2014 Sunflower protests.  Was pro-DPP in 2014-2016 period.  Pro-DPP part of this party has mostly left and aligned with DPP.  Party is now anti-DPP even as it is Deep Green.  Some talk of possible alliance with Ko but with Ko turning to a lean light blue position this does not seem possible.

PFP(People First Party)(親民黨) - KMT rebel Soong party and old KMT Deep Blue splinter.  Has shifted to  Light Blue over the years and an on and off ally for Ko.  With KMT falling apart in 2016 it was able to win a lot of the light blue vote.  This time it will do poorly with some KMT revival.

NP (New Party) (新黨) - Old KMT radical unification splinter.  In 2016 with KMT in the dumps it was able to draw almost 5% of the PR vote.  This time around it will be a much lower.

TAPA (Taiwan Action Party Alliance) (一邊一國行動黨) - ex-DPP Prez Chen Right independence DPP splinter outfit. Mostly will back Tsai for now but will try to blackmail DPP and Tsai for an alliance.

SDP (Social Democratic Party) (社會民主黨) - Left pan-Green party and DPP splinter.  Key leader is a family friend (Fang Yun) 范雲.  Was allied with DPP in 2016.  This time out on its own.

FA (Formosa Alliance) (喜樂島聯盟) - Right Independence DPP splinter.  Very socially conservative and will run DPP ex-Vice Prez Lu (who is a noted feminist which makes this alliance sort of weird).  Looks like this time is just out to get Tsai no matter what.

SP (Stability of Power) (安定力量) - Christian Conservative party running on anti-Gay marriage platform.  Successor party of 2016 Christian Conservative Faith and Hope League(信心希望聯盟).  Will eat into the socially conservative KMT vote.

CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟) - successor party of the 2016 KMT splinter MKT(民國黨).  Will eat into the KMT vote in places like  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) and Keelong City (基隆市)  where some local KMT leaders have gone over the CPA.

NPB (Non-Party Bloc) (無黨團結聯盟) - mostly Light Blue outfit that is a tactical ally of KMT.
 
GP (Green Party) (綠黨) - Left Pan-Green party.  Founded by family friend professor Gao (高成炎).  On and off ally of DPP.

TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進) - radical Right independence outfit that focus more on economic Rightism versus Social conservatism of FA.

TRP (Taiwan Renewal Party)  (台灣維新) - DPP splinter and party of ex-DPP County magistrate of Tainan Su.  Mostly a light green force.  Could be a tactical ally of Ko. 

Of these parties, all of the came up with a party list in the PR section except for

SDP (Social Democratic Party) (社會民主黨) - with founder 范雲 (Fan Yun) joining DPP and running on the DPP list it seems SDP will be backing DPP this election.

NPB (Non-Party Bloc) (無黨團結聯盟) - this pro-KMT Light Blue outfit seems like will be sitting this election out which means de facto support of KMT

In addition to these parties two radical unification parties will be having lists

CUPP ((Chinese Unification Promotion Party) 中華統一促進黨 - Radical Right Unification party
LP (Labor Party) 勞動黨 - Radical Left-Socialist Unification Party
 
Both seems like will just cut into the NP vote.

The ex-DPP Prez Chen Right Independence outfit TAPA (Taiwan Action Party Alliance) (一邊一國行動黨) list had Prez Chen 6th on the Party list mostly as a stunt.  Chen is not eligible to run for political office given that he is on medical prole from his sentence for corruption means his name will be removed by the ROC Election commission.

Bot the pro-Ko TPP (Taiwan People Party) (台灣民眾黨) and pro-Soong PFP(People First Party)(親民黨)  party list also feature some candidates that have ties to Guo as both are fighting for the pro-Guo vote.  Mostly bad news for the KMT who was hoping to pick up most of that support even if they do not vote for Han on the Prez ticket.  But this further adds to the image of  TPP (Taiwan People Party) (台灣民眾黨)  as a more pan-Blue party versus Ko's own Deep Green roots.

NPP's strategy seems to be to get marginal DPP votes with them not running a candidate against Tsai and asking for a pro-DPP sympathy vote for NPP PR list.

ex-KMT MP 邱毅(Chiu Yi) who has very strong pro-PRC views (sometimes advocating openly for a PRC invasion of Taiwan Province if that is what it took for reunification to take place) was considered for the KMT party list but after objections from the Light Blue wing of the KMT over his radical unification views was dropped will appear on the NP list.

Both the KMT and DPP lists are not viewed in positive light but especially the KMT list.  This is a chance for TPP and PFP to gain ground.

[jaichind]

ROC election laws says that parties that are participating in the PR list vote for the first time MUST nominate at least 10 district candidates as well.  This is meant to prevent frivolous parties from contesting.  As a result TPP, Economic Right Independence TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進), KMT splinter CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟), DPP splinter TRP (Taiwan Renewal Party)  (台灣維新), Christian Conservative SP (Stability of Power) (安定力量), pro-Chen Right Independence TAPA (Taiwan Action Party Alliance) (一邊一國行動黨), and Social Conservative Right Independence FA (Formosa Alliance) (喜樂島聯盟) all nominated at least 10 district candidates.

TPP nominated 28 district candidates, Deep Green NPP(New People Power) (時代力量) has 11 district candidates, Light Blue PFP(People First Party)(親民黨) has 22 district candidates, Right Unification NP (New Party) (新黨) has 10 candidates, Left Independence GP (Green Party) (綠黨) has 6 candidates, and pro KMT ex-Prez Lee Independence party TSU(Taiwan Solidarity Union) (台灣團結聯盟) has 7 candidates.

There are also 3 DPP backed independents running (2 ex-NPP and 1 KMT rebel) plus another DPP candidate running as independent with DPP support due to some DPP internal party factional horse-trading that I will not get into right now.

The KMT will back a pro-KMT independent and a DPP rebel running as independent.

For significant independents that could have an impact I count

7 KMT rebel
1 radical unification
1 pro-Guo pro-Ko joint candidate
1 Pan-Blue
3 DPP rebel
1 Liberal-Progressive
1 pro-TSU
1 pro-NPP

Which means the KMT will be hurt more than DPP by significant independents.  At the same time minor parties running in district seats seem to lean more on the Pan-Green side.

If you look at it seat-by-seat the KMT is more hurt by the explosion of candidates.  DPP vote splinters tend to run in safe seats (KMT or DPP) while KMT vote splinters tend to run in more marginal districts.   The KMT has to hope that PFP and TPP PR vote swing KMT in legislative seats even if they lean Tsai for Prez.

[jaichind]

Updated projections on Legislative election now that PFP is running a candidate for Prez which plus a poorly recieved KMT PR list could push PFP over the 5% threshold

                                          2020                                              2016
District                           KMT   DPP  KMT   pro-DPP     KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
                                                      rebel
Taipei City (臺北市)            7        1                               5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     6        6                               2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         0        1                               0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        4        2                               2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          1        0                              0       1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0                               1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0                               2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        5        3                               3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0                               2      0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2        2                               1      3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        0        2                              0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1                              0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2                              0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6                              0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     1        7                               0       9                            (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        1                1             0       3                            (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0        1                              0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      0        0         1                   0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1                             0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     1         0                              0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0                             1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0                              1       0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    35       36        1      1          20      49     1        3

Doing well in New Taipei City (新北市), Taoyuan City (桃園市) and Taichung City(臺中市)  will decisive for KMT to win a majority.  In Hualian County(花蓮縣) it seems the KMT rebel will most likely beat out both the KMT and DPP incumbent but it is up in the air.  In Pingdong County(屏東縣) due to factional battles one of the DPP candidates had to run as an DPP backed independent.

2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        13    2     5     12    2

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 52 PFP 2 NPB 1 Ind 1= 56
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 49 NPP 2 Ind 1         = 52
TPP                                                                 TPP 5

Which gives the Pan-Blues a slight edge over Pan-Greens but short of majority.  TPP on paper would be more likely to lean Blue but since Tsai is much more likely to win the Prez race TPP will most likely swing over to back the Pan-Greens to form a narrow majority.  At this stage the KMT upside is no better than KMT downside and if Han's campaign goes down hill the DPP will most likely win a plurality and even narrow majority.  
 
Current xfutures market has for seats for 2020 Legislature elections  
KMT  50
DPP  49
NPP    2
OTH  12

OTH at 12 now seems much more reasonable.  TPP could win 5 PR seats, PFP could win 2 PR seats, NPB will win 1,1 DPP backed independent in  Pingdong County(屏東縣) will most likely win, and the KMT rebel in  Hualian County(花蓮縣) is likely to win.  That leaves 2 seats and we have 3 seats where a pro-DPP independent have a shot a winning as well as a KMT rebel in Kinmen County(金門縣) that could beat out the KMT candidate.  TPP could also over-perform on the PR slate and win 6 seats as opposed to 5 although I think 4 is more likely than 6.

[jaichind]

On the whole developments in the Prez election campaign are moving in favor of Tsai and against Han. 

First politically active Abbot 妙天(MiaoTian) who is the head of the KMT CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟) (2016 KMT splinter MKT have since merged into CPA) seems to have sifted from a pro-Han position to either a pro-Tsai position or neutral position. Either way it is quit a coup for Tsai.  This will clearly help Tsai but in legislative races this will help KMT as the KMT base is a lot less likely to vote CPA .  CPA have some strength in Keelong City (基隆市) and Hsinchu County (新竹縣) and are running strong candidates there.  This CPA move will most likely reduce how much of the Pan-Blue vote the CPA candidates cut into.

Second there has been bunch of news about possible PRC intervention in the ROC elections. Most them ended up being nothing burgers but these sort of things in the news clearly hurt Han.

Lastly, there has been a bunch of pro-Green polls that has Han behind by double digits now.  Clearly frustrated that these polls could demotivate the Pan-Blue based might be turning out, Han have called on his supporters to lie to pollsters and say they will vote Tsai. Most likely Han's own internals shows that he is now behind by nearly 10% versus 5%-7% that more professional and neutral polls showed a couple of weeks ago.  Either way this move reeks of desperation.

Xfutures market of course (which has a historical Pan-Green lean) does not buy any of it and still have odds of winning still nearly neck-to-neck with a slight Tsai advantage

Xfutures odds of 2020 ROC Prez election winner
DPP Tsai   53%
KMT Han  47%

The reason seems to be that Han rallies continue to be massive while Tsai rallies seems much more sparsely attended.  I do not buy it.   This will most lkely be 1972 McGovern redux where he had large rallies but Nixon wins in a landslide.  Han could close the gap somewhat next couple of months but he is clearly behind by a significant margin.

[jaichind]

I looked over xfutures seat in aggregate and individual seats and constructed the current xfutures projections.

                                          2020                                              2016
District                           KMT   DPP  KMT   pro-DPP     KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
                                                      rebel
Taipei City (臺北市)            6        1                 1            5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     4        8                               2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         0        1                               0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        5        1                               2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          1        0                              0       1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0                               1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0                               2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        6        2                               3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0                               2      0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2        2                               1      3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        0        2                              0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1                              0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2                              0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6                              0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     2        6                               0       9                            (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        1                1             0       3                            (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          1        0                              0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      0        0         1                   0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1                             0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     1         0                              0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0                             1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0                              1       0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    36       34        1      2          20      49     1        3

With DPP outperforming in Taipei City (臺北市) and New Taipei City (新北市) but under-performing in Taoyuan City (桃園市), Taichung City(臺中市), Kaoshiung City (高雄市), and Yilan County(宜蘭縣).  Xfutures seems to believe in a swing toward the KMT in rural lower educated voters and a swing toward the DPP in urban educated voters.

2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        12    2     6     12    2

Where KMT loses its early lead over DPP by having some of its support going over to TPP and PFP.

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 52 PFP 2 NPB 1 Ind 1= 56
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 47 NPP 2 Ind 2         = 51
TPP                                                                 TPP 6

Which in the aggregate is similar to my must current projection.

The seat market odds has the following seats as fun 3 way battle where "third party" candidates will do well and could win

New Taipei City (新北市) 1st District:  KMT expected to edge out DPP but prominent independent and perennial party hopper Oh(歐崇敬) seems could pull in a lot of support to potential win and at least be a very disruptive factor.

New Taipei City (新北市) 3st District: DPP is expected to win in this DPP stronghold.  But TPP candidate is daughter of a prominent  DPP rival to the DPP incumbent and could edge out the pro-KMT independent for second place and perhaps even win. 

New Taipei City (新北市) 10st District: DPP is expected to win over KMT but TPP backed independent is the son of a prominent KMT family and supporter of Guo who could come in second an perhaps beat out the DPP for a win.

Hualian County(花蓮縣) At Large: KMT rebel and former County magistrate (and husband of current KMT county magistrate) is expected to win over a popular DPP incumbent in this Deep Blue county.  The KMT candidate is weak which indicates the KMT rebel is a KMT feature and not a bug.  There are outstanding corruption cases against the KMT rebel so the KMT could not nominate him.  But what the KMT do is to run a weak candidate and then have the KMT rebel scoop up the KMT vote base and oust the popular DPP incumbent with someone even more popular and have deep roots in the county.

The seat market also have other fun 3 way races where the third party candidate will swing the result decisively:

Taipei City (臺北市) 1st District:  KMT will beat out DPP but Right Independence pro-Chen TPFA will run a prominent DPP rebel which will get a sizable vote.

Hsinchu City(新竹市) At large: KMT should edge out DPP but NPP will run a prominent pro-independence activist which will take a good part of the vote.
 

[jaichind]

TVBS poll.  Tsai support steady while Han's support collapses.  It it not clear how much of is this is being influenced by Han calling on his supporters to back Tsai when a pollster calls.  Since Tsai's support did not budge it seems that this is what is taking place.

DPP Tsai    46(+1)
KMT Han    31(-6)
PFP Soong  8(--)

Likely to vote 80(+2) -> turnout projected to be at 70% (2016 turnout was 66% which represented the collapse of the of the Pan-Blue turnout.)


 
Legislature PR vote

KMT   31.0(-2.0)
DPP   24.0(+1.0)
TPP    12.0(--)
NPP     6.0(--)
PFP     3.0(-1.0)
NP      2.0(+1.4)
TSP    1.0(+1.0) (Economic Right Independence)
TSU    0.4(+0.2)
GP      0.3(-0.2)

KMT still have a ever smaller leave.  Han's call for his supporters to indicate a vote for Tsai most likely played a role here although it is not clear how much.

[jaichind]

If I had to guess I would say the state of the race is

DPP Tsai    52
KMT Han   40
PFP Soong   8

The main "problem" for Tsai would be that if PFP Soong'ss support were to fall which is likely most of it will go to Han.  On the other hand if PFP Soong catches fire he is much more likely to gain from Tsai than Han. 

Local illegal betting markets are murky but it seems the even odds betting line has Tsai with a 1.5% lead over Han. 

Despite what the local betting markets say or what xfutures markets say, Tsai is clearly ahead and in pole position to finish with a solid victory. Only question is can she be driven below 50%.  The real battle is the battle for the Legislature where most likely it will end up a hung legislature with TPP holding the balance of power.   

[jaichind]

KMT released their list of 18 tossup seats they are going to concentrate on in the Legislative race.  Most of them both myself and xfutures betting agree are tossups.  They are

                                               Me           Xfutures
Taipei City (臺北市)  1st            KMT             KMT
Taipei City (臺北市)  4th            KMT             KMT
Taipei City (臺北市)  5th            KMT           IND-DPP
New Taipei City (新北市) 7th      KMT             DPP
New Taipei City (新北市) 8th      KMT             DPP
New Taipei City (新北市) 10th    DPP             DPP
Taoyuan City (桃園市) 1st          KMT             KMT
Taoyuan City (桃園市) 4th         KMT             KMT
Taichung City(臺中市) 3rd         KMT           IND-DPP
Taichung City(臺中市) 4th         KMT             KMT
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) 3rd      KMT             KMT
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) 5th      DPP             DPP
Yunlin County(雲林縣) 1st         KMT             KMT
Hsinchu City(新竹市) At large    KMT             DPP
Yilan County(宜蘭縣) At large    DPP              KMT

The KMT also has Taipei City (臺北市)  3rd as a tossup even though both myself and Xfutures view it as likely KMT so it seems the KMT is more concerned about urban Taipei City (臺北市) this time.  
The KMT also has Changhua County(彰化縣) 4th as a tossup even though both myself and Xfutures view it as likely DPP so it seems that the KMT is hopeful of gains in rural Changhua County(彰化縣).
The KMT also has Keelong City (基隆市) At large as tossup even though both myself and Xfutures view it as likely DPP mostly because of a strong CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟) is likely to split the KMT vote.  The KMT must think they can get some last minute tactical voting to win.

Both my self and Xfutures have New Taipei City (新北市) 1st as a lean KMT tossup but it seems the KMT seems to feel that it is in the bank.  Both myself and Xfutures view New Taipei City (新北市) 5th and New Taipei City (新北市) 6th as slight lean DPP tossups but it seems the KMT have given up on them.  Xfutures also feel that DPP stronghold New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd will be a 3 way battle between DPP KMT and TPP (daughter of local powerful DPP kingin) even thought it is clear the KMT feel like the KMT have no chances there.

Both myself and Xfutures feel that Taoyuan City (桃園市) 2nd is a lean DPP tossup where I feel that the DPP will win but Xfutures has it at a KMT upset.  The KMT seems to have given up on this seats.  In Taoyuan City (桃園市) 6th both myself and Xfutures have it as a tossup with the KMT with a small edge over the IND-DPP incumbent.    The KMT seems to feel this is a slam dump and have banked it already.

Both myself and Xfutures feel that Taichung City(臺中市) 6th is a lean DPP tossup with Xfutures thinking that it will be a KMT upset.  The KMT clearly does not agree and seems to have given up on the seat.

Both myself and Xfutures feel that Kaoshiung City (高雄市) 7th is a lean DPP tossup with Xfutures thinking that it will be a KMT upset due to the TPP candidate splitting the DPP vote.  The KMT clearly does not agree and seems to have given up on the seat.

Both myself and Xfutures view Penghu County(澎湖縣) At large as a lean KMT tossup.  It seems the KMT have banked this one.

Another interesting tossup is Hualian County(花蓮縣) At large where it is a 3 way battle between the DPP incumbent vs KMT vs KMT rebel (former county magistrate and husband of current KMT county magistrate.)  Frankly the entire race seems rigged by the KMT to have the KMT run the de facto KMT rebel who has outstanding corruption cases but very popular in the county have have a weak dummy KMT candidate.  So it is easy to understand why the KMT would label this as a district to focus on.  

Deep blue Kinmen County(金門縣)  At Large and Lienchiang County(連江縣) At Large will be tossups between the KMT candidate and a KMT rebel so again not critical to KMT's battle to deny the Pan-Greens a majority.

[jaichind]

It seems clear that Ko plans to run in 2024.  He and his staff are pretty transparent about the fact that they feel:

a) Tsai will win in 2020 for sure
b)  The KMT will take a couple of election cycles to recover from the fiasco of the Han candidacy throwing away a race that is quite winnable
c) The second Tsai administration will be a even bigger disaster than the first Tsai administration

Which all paves the way for a successful third party run by Ko in 2024.

The main problem with this reasoning is that the TPP strategy for the 2020 elections seems to be at odds with this assumption.  Namely Ko/TPP have given up the 2020 Prez race to focus on TPP winning 5-7 seats in the party list to hold the balance of power in the Legislature.  But if they are successful in that endeavor and the Legislture ends up being hung the TPP will have to CHOOSE to align with the DPP administration or KMT led opposition.  In either case the TPP will be tied to either DPP or KMT and unable to project Ko in 2024 as a true alternative to the DPP and KMT.

Ideally for this Ko strategy to work he should hope for a Pan-Blue majority which would share in the blame for upcoming failures of a second Tsai administration.

In the meantime Xfutures odds insist on not budging with Tsai and and Han at near parity in terms of winning odds

Xfutures 2020 Prez winner odds
DPP Tsai   52.5
KMT Han   47.5

Xfutures odds for Legislature taking into account odds for each constituency is around
DPP    47
KMT   51
NPP     3
OTH   12 (TPP 5 PFP 2 3 pro-DPP Independent, 1 KMT rebel, 1 NPB)

Which adds up to
Pan-Greens   53
Pan-Blues     55
TPP               5

which achieved's Ko's goal of TPP holding the balance of power. 

[jaichind]

The latest xfutures odds on a consistency  basis continues to show the DPP outperforming in urban Taipei City (臺北市)  and New Taipei City (新北市) but with KMT outperforming in more rural Taoyuan City (桃園市), Taichung City(臺中市), and Kaoshiung City (高雄市).  In high tech and urban Hsinchu City(新竹市) xfutures expect the DPP to win a tense 3 way battle between DPP KMT and NPP when one would expect the split of the pan-Green vote to give the KMT a solid edge.  Xfutures expects a significant urban/rural churn which is related both to economic trends and the relative aging of rural areas relative to urban areas.   Like I said before this is a return to the 1980s and 1990s versus the 2000s and early 2010s being an era where the KMT was strong in urban areas and DPP was strong in rural areas.

[jaichind]

The reason why xfutures is so optimistic on KMT Han's chances are that given Han told his supporters to support Tsai when called by a pollster which basically blinds everyone in the race alternative sources of data seems to indicate surprising Han strength.

One such factor are various illegal betting bookmakers seems to put the break even odds between DPP Tsai and KMT Han from anywhere from neck-to-neck to something like a 3% lead for DPP Tsai.  Also two (pro-Han) Youtubers have being going around Taiwan Province doing impromptu face to face polls at areas if high concentration of people (open markets, train stations etc etc)

One of them (桃園孫先生) (Mr Sun of  Taoyuan) goes all over Taiwan Province pretty every day since July 2019 doing polls
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0mVh9cQGuHDE4KpBLWFSew/videos
 
The other (北青) (Northern Youth) seems to focus on Northern Taiwan Province cities
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOUlZisIcNpjD9XA7uV6_TA/videos

The results seems similar for both in the aggregate which seems to imply it is something like KMT Han 52 DPP Tsai 43 PFP Soong 5.  Clears these polls are not weighted by demographics but does show DPP Tsai strength in the Youth and urban Northern areas and surprising strength for KMT Han  in Southern rural areas.  Other then that I would not take the aggregate results that seriously but xfutures betters are.

One thing I did get out of watching these video clips of their impromptu clips are that KMT Han supporters are pretty committed and indicated their support for Han ASAP.  DPP Tsai backers seems to hesitate more and most likely doing a lesser of two evil calculations in their mind went with DPP Tsai.  This seems correlated to the observation that KMT Han rallies are well attended but DPP Tsai rallies seems much sparser.  Of course this does not mean KMT Han would win as in 1972 McGovern rallies were huge but were crushed on election day.   What important about this is it gives a clue who higher turnout will benefit. In 2016 the Pan-Blue turnout collapsed leading to a DPP landslide. The assumption made by everyone is that higher turnout in 2020 would help KMT Han.  Bases on these observations it seems the KMT Han supporters are fairly committed while many DPP Tsai supporters are marginal which means high turnout in 2020 tends to help DPP Tsai.        

[Tintrlvr]

The reason why xfutures is so optimistic on KMT Han's chances are that given Han told his supporters to support Tsai when called by a pollster which basically blinds everyone in the race alternative sources of data seems to indicate surprising Han strength.

One such factor are various illegal betting bookmakers seems to put the break even odds between DPP Tsai and KMT Han from anywhere from neck-to-neck to something like a 3% lead for DPP Tsai.  Also two (pro-Han) Youtubers have being going around Taiwan Province doing impromptu face to face polls at areas if high concentration of people (open markets, train stations etc etc)

One of them (桃園孫先生) (Mr Sun of  Taoyuan) goes all over Taiwan Province pretty every day since July 2019 doing polls
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0mVh9cQGuHDE4KpBLWFSew/videos
 
The other (北青) (Northern Youth) seems to focus on Northern Taiwan Province cities
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOUlZisIcNpjD9XA7uV6_TA/videos

The results seems similar for both in the aggregate which seems to imply it is something like KMT Han 52 DPP Tsai 43 PFP Soong 5.  Clears these polls are not weighted by demographics but does show DPP Tsai strength in the Youth and urban Northern areas and surprising strength for KMT Han  in Southern rural areas.  Other then that I would not take the aggregate results that seriously but xfutures betters are.

One thing I did get out of watching these video clips of their impromptu clips are that KMT Han supporters are pretty committed and indicated their support for Han ASAP.  DPP Tsai backers seems to hesitate more and most likely doing a lesser of two evil calculations in their mind went with DPP Tsai.  This seems correlated to the observation that KMT Han rallies are well attended but DPP Tsai rallies seems much sparser.  Of course this does not mean KMT Han would win as in 1972 McGovern rallies were huge but were crushed on election day.   What important about this is it gives a clue who higher turnout will benefit. In 2016 the Pan-Blue turnout collapsed leading to a DPP landslide. The assumption made by everyone is that higher turnout in 2020 would help KMT Han.  Bases on these observations it seems the KMT Han supporters are fairly committed while many DPP Tsai supporters are marginal which means high turnout in 2020 tends to help DPP Tsai.        

Perhaps one would expect hesitation in admitting support for one candidate when a voter is approach by a "pollster" who is clearly a partisan supporter of another, diametrically opposed candidate.

[jaichind]

The reason why xfutures is so optimistic on KMT Han's chances are that given Han told his supporters to support Tsai when called by a pollster which basically blinds everyone in the race alternative sources of data seems to indicate surprising Han strength.

One such factor are various illegal betting bookmakers seems to put the break even odds between DPP Tsai and KMT Han from anywhere from neck-to-neck to something like a 3% lead for DPP Tsai.  Also two (pro-Han) Youtubers have being going around Taiwan Province doing impromptu face to face polls at areas if high concentration of people (open markets, train stations etc etc)

One of them (桃園孫先生) (Mr Sun of  Taoyuan) goes all over Taiwan Province pretty every day since July 2019 doing polls
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0mVh9cQGuHDE4KpBLWFSew/videos
 
The other (北青) (Northern Youth) seems to focus on Northern Taiwan Province cities
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOUlZisIcNpjD9XA7uV6_TA/videos

The results seems similar for both in the aggregate which seems to imply it is something like KMT Han 52 DPP Tsai 43 PFP Soong 5.  Clears these polls are not weighted by demographics but does show DPP Tsai strength in the Youth and urban Northern areas and surprising strength for KMT Han  in Southern rural areas.  Other then that I would not take the aggregate results that seriously but xfutures betters are.

One thing I did get out of watching these video clips of their impromptu clips are that KMT Han supporters are pretty committed and indicated their support for Han ASAP.  DPP Tsai backers seems to hesitate more and most likely doing a lesser of two evil calculations in their mind went with DPP Tsai.  This seems correlated to the observation that KMT Han rallies are well attended but DPP Tsai rallies seems much sparser.  Of course this does not mean KMT Han would win as in 1972 McGovern rallies were huge but were crushed on election day.   What important about this is it gives a clue who higher turnout will benefit. In 2016 the Pan-Blue turnout collapsed leading to a DPP landslide. The assumption made by everyone is that higher turnout in 2020 would help KMT Han.  Bases on these observations it seems the KMT Han supporters are fairly committed while many DPP Tsai supporters are marginal which means high turnout in 2020 tends to help DPP Tsai.        

Perhaps one would expect hesitation in admitting support for one candidate when a voter is approach by a "pollster" who is clearly a partisan supporter of another, diametrically opposed candidate.

This a theoretical risk and a lot of ROC political discussion board also raises this concern as they discuss the results from these two youtuber's polls.   If you watch how they conduct the impromptu poll they both do a pretty good job disguising their  political views.

[jaichind]

ROC election commission held an event where the 3 Prez candidates presented their pitch.


(Soong looks pretty good for someone that is 77)

Overall consensus were that it was mostly a wash.  KMT Han attacked DPP Tsai for not being for ROC but too chicken to support Taiwan Independence while DPP Tsai ignored KMT Han's attack and said that KMT Han was too chicken to come out for ROC in front of PRC officials.  PFP Soong pretty much attacks both sides for wasting time while the economy continues to deteriorate.

Xfutures markets shifted slightly in favor of KMT Han on heavy trading after the respective speeches

Xfutures 2020 Prez winner

DPP Tsai  52
KMT Han  48

There will be media sponsored debates later in Dec where the 3 candidates will get to question each other.

[jaichind]

A series of prez debates took place.  Looks like mostly a 3 way tie with PFP Soong slightly better than KMT Han slightly better than DPP Tsai.  Unfortunately for KMT Han it is not enough to change the dynamics of the race and in fact made it harder by making a Soong collapse less likely. 

Xfutures betting markets had heavy trading after the debates but are unmoved and has it at

2020 Prez winner
DPP  Tsai  52.5
KMT Han  47.5

I personally recon that DPP Tsai chances are much higher then that (more like 80%+). If I had to guess I figure the race is at

DPP Tsai    51
KMT Han   43
PFP Soong   6

If this is true then this sort of result is not so positive for the Pan-Greens to win a majority.  If you figure the TPP PR vote conservatively at 12% this bloc of voters most likely will be (7% Tsai 3% Soong 2% Han).  This would imply the Pan-Green and Pan-Blue PR vote are both around 44%. Even if the TPP PR vote would lean DPP in the FPTP legislative race many would vote third party so the Pan-Greens can only expect to beat the Pan-Blues by a small margin in FPTP seats which will be easily overcome by the Pan-Blues in the Aboriginal seats. The PR section will see a more splintered result and vote wasted for the Pan-Greens than Pan-Blues so the the seat split between Pan-Greens and Pan-Blues will be evenly split at best for the Pan-Greens.

Xfutures currently betting odds seems to also imply this by having now

Pan-Greens: 54 (DPP 47, pro-DPP independents 3, NPP 4)
Pan-Blues: 52 (KMT 48, KMT rebel 1, pro-NPB independent 1, PFP 2)
TPP: 7

Which would be a nightmare for the DPP Tsai regime as they will need to rope in BOTH NPP and TPP to get anything passed.

[jaichind]

The most exciting legislative race would be Hsinchu City(新竹市) at large.

Hsinchu City(新竹市) is a traditionally lean Blue are but dominated by a bloc of middle class high tech light blue voters.

2012 legislative race
KMT   53.2
DPP   41.8

 But the DPP and NPP running on a progressive agenda in 2016 managed to shift the voting patterns toward the Pan-Greens and the DPP won in a 3 way race

2016 legislative race
DPP    41.3
KMT   36.5
NPP    16.6
PFP      1.9

This time around without the clear DPP wave it was expected that the KMT would win back this seat as the DPP incumbent got put back on the DPP PR list.  But the DPP candidate caught fire as KMT Han's fortunes dipped in urban areas dragging down the KMT candidate and it was thought that the DPP candidate would have a slight edge.  Then the NPP candidate caught fire and captured a bunch of support from the DPP candidate leading to a 3 way race with NPP having a slight edge.  CPA is also in the race and most likely will capture a vote share similar to what PFP won in 2016 but that vote is much needed by the KMT in such a tight race.

Xfutures odds of winning are now
NPP  36
DPP  32
KMT  32

I suspect with the Pan-Green vote now evenly split the KMT is now most likely going to win unless there is a last minute collapse of the DPP or NPP candidate but with both having a reasonable path to victory that seems unlikely.

[jaichind]

Other fun 3 way races

New Taipei City (新北市) 1st.  Another traditional light blue district that have shifted Pan-Green in 2016.

2012
KMT   50.8
DPP   42.4
PFP     4.4
GP      2.4

In 2016 the DPP won in a DPP wave election
DPP    53.3
KMT   40.9
GP       2.5

This time around NPP is running a strong candidate and and Oh(歐崇敬) a political maverick that have been KMT DPP PFP and most recently FA is also running making it a 4 way race.  Most expect the KMT to win as the NPP candidate seems to have driven the DPP incumbent into third place.  Still a last minute DPP or NPP collapse could take the seat away from KMT.

Xfutures odds right now are
KMT   38
NPP    27
DPP   24
Oh     11

I think xfutures are overestimating Oh's chances and underestimating KMT chances here.


New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd.  Old lean Green seat with some of the old DPP working class vote might shift to KMT Han this time around even as light blue voters might shift to DPP.

2012
DPP   49.3
KMT   48.7 

2016 DPP wave
DPP    54.5
KMT    35.4

This time around the KMT decided to back a pro-Blue independent while TPP nominated a DPP rebel making it a 3 way race.  While the DPP will most likely win there are signs that the Pan-Blue vote might be shifting to the TPP candidate and snatch the seat from the DPP in this supposedly safe DPP seat.

Xfutures odds has chances of winning
DPP                  49
TPP                  31
Pro-KMT Ind.    20

I think the DPP should get this one with ease with the anti-DPP vote split


New Taipei City (新北市) 10th.  Old light blue urba district that has gone over to DPP recently

2012
KMT     47.7
DPP     43.4
GP        4.6

2016 DPP wave
DPP      58.5
KMT     38.5

This time around TPP is backing a pro-Guo KMT rebel who seems to be eating into the KMT vote but also the urban progressive vote making it a 3 way race.  Again there are signs that the anti-DPP vote might be shifting behind the pro-TPP pro-Guo KMT rebel

Xfuture odds of winning
DPP                44
KMT rebel       31
KMT                25

Again, with the anti-DPP vote split the DPP chances are much higher than the Xfutures odds would indicate.

[jaichind]

A lot is made of KMT Han's appearance on 博恩夜夜秀(The Night Night Show) and the views it received on Youtube which reached 4.5M after 4 days.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pzt4XbdANM&t=929s

DPP Tsai appeared on the same show back in April but reached 3.8M over 8 months (around 400K is since KMT Han appeared on the show).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLQklUErrFs&t=10s

These numbers are quite large given the fact that the total votes expected should be around 13M-14M.

In terms of Likes/Dislikes KMT Han is 186K/66K while DPP Tsai is at 119K/21K which tells the story of KMT Han being much more polarizing but does have a larger hardcore vote.  This sort of tells the same narrative that KMT Han's chances comes from lower turnout while DPP Tsai does better in a higher turnout election.

[jaichind]

In the final debate PFP Soong wore his doctoral robe.  This is a indirect attack on DPP Tsai and a earlier controversy this year over weather her doctoral thesis from the London School of Economic is a fraud or a doctorate was never issued.     

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-election/taiwan-has-urgent-need-for-infiltration-law-in-face-of-china-president-idUSKBN1YV143

"Taiwan has 'urgent' need for infiltration law in face of China: president"

Tsai/DPP seems to want to get this new law passed before the election while the DPP has the majority.  The law is fairly vague and might be unconstitutional.  This seems like a DPP attempt to cut off KMT funding from ROC enterprises that have large presence on Mainland China especially with chances of DPP winning a majority in Jan 2020 suspect.  Pan-Blue parties like KMT PFP NP etc etc clearly are opposed.  But so are TPP and even Radical Right Independence parties like FA who are saying "We are all for blocking China influence in Taiwan politics but what is the rush ?"

All things equal this seems to indicate that the DPP feels that its chances of losing its majority on its own in Jan 2020 as  significant to rush out this polarizing law.  I guess DPP feels the Prez race is in the pag so it can take a hit in the Prez race due to this law and in return buy insurance on losing its majority in the Legislature.

[jaichind]

Final debate where all the candidates get to question each other.  DPP Tsai being ahead was on defense while KMT Han was on offense.  All on all PFP Soong did the best but not enough to prevent a last minute tactical voting against Soong

Final TVBS poll has

DPP Tsai    45(-3)
KMT Han   29(-1)
PFP Soong   7(-1)




Who did the best in the debate
DPP Tsai    41
KMT Han   27
PFP Soong 13



These numbers looks a lot like the final TVBS poll (13 days before the election) in 2012 where it had

KMT Ma    45
DPP Tsai   37
PFP Soong  6

With the final result being
KMT Ma    51.6
DPP Tsa    45.6
PFP Soong  2.8

This time KMT Han's supporters are more likely to be "hidden" so this sort of poll implies something like

DPP Tsai    51
KMT Han   43
PFP Soong  6

With less Soong->Han tactical voting due to KMT Han's polarization campaign