ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

Recall Yes ahead 51.5 to 48.5 according to pro-Green Formosa TV.  To be fair, most of these numbers are made up and a projection based on what the unofficial count is so far.  If true Chen has to hope overall turnout does not reach the necessary threshold.

[jaichind]

Formosa TV also reports that turnout is around 50%.  If true and Recall Yes hold its narrow lead then the recall success very narrowly both on margin and absolute threshold.

[jaichind]

Chen's own campaign calculated numbers now have Recall Yes crossing the absolute threshold.  Recall Yes still ahead of Recall no 51.7 to 48.3.  Looks like Chen is out.  New KMT Chairman Chu wins his first battle.

[jaichind]

Even as a Deep Blue pro-KMT supporter I do not support this recall.  For both Chen and Han last year, if they are so bad let them be beaten fair and square in 2024 and 2022 respectively versus this recall business.  Neither person committed any crimes.  I do not see any real value of this cycle of "revenge."

[jaichind]

I am pretty sure KMT's Yen Junior will run in the by-election to regain his old seat.  Most likely he will win given the organizational strength of the Yen family.  Note that from a Prez and PR vote point of view this district is actually a lean Green district but the power of the Yen family was such so that they held this seat throughout.  2020 was a fluke given the overall macro environment which will not be repeated in now nor 2024.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Chen's own campaign calculated numbers now have Recall Yes crossing the absolute threshold.  Recall Yes still ahead of Recall no 51.7 to 48.3.  Looks like Chen is out.  New KMT Chairman Chu wins his first battle.

Not only that, they also wanted to recall Taipei legislator Freddy Lim. If both Chen and Lim are recalled, KMT will gain control of the Legislative Yuan's Foreign and National Defense Committee -- that's their final goal.

As if KMT's foreign policy isn't disastrous enough...

[jaichind]

I think Chen has a bright future in politics.  2020 was a very pro-DPP year and he was able to get a de facto vote share very close to his 2020 win.  The DPP base in the district is not that large to get to recall No vote to be this high.  This speaks to the personal vote Chen is able to mobilize mostly with the youth to get the result to be this close.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Final results, according to the Taichung Election Commission:

Recall election in Taichung City Constituency 2, 2021:
Yes: 51.48% (77,899 votes) / 26.41% of electorate
No: 48.52% (73,433 votes) / 24.90% of electorate
Turnout: 51.72%

Results by district:
Shalu:     Yes: 19,922 (53.00%)    
               No: 17,670 (47.00%)
Wuri:      Yes: 15,375 (48.95%)
               No: 16,037 (51.05%)
Dadu:     Yes: 12,522 (52.48%)    
               No: 11,340 (47.52%)
Longjing: Yes: 16,337 (52.35%)    
               No: 14,873 (47.65%)
Wufeng:  Yes: 13,743 (50.42%)    
               No: 13,513 (49.58%)

[MoreThanPolitics]

Taichung City Election Commission just dropped ward (precinct)-level results.

[jaichind]

Final results, according to the Taichung Election Commission:

Recall election in Taichung City Constituency 2, 2021:
Yes: 51.48% (77,899 votes) / 26.41% of electorate
No: 48.52% (73,433 votes) / 24.90% of electorate
Turnout: 51.72%

Results by district:
Shalu:     Yes: 19,922 (53.00%)    
              No: 17,670 (47.00%)
Wuri:      Yes: 15,375 (48.95%)
              No: 15,375 (51.05%)
Dadu:     Yes: 12,522 (52.48%)    
              No: 11,340 (47.52%)
Longjing: Yes: 16,337 (52.35%)    
              No: 14,873 (47.65%)
Wufeng:  Yes: 13,743 (50.42%)    
              No: 13,513 (49.58%)

Typo. Wuri is Yes 15,375 No 16,037. BTW, Chen himself is from Wuri

[MoreThanPolitics]

Final results, according to the Taichung Election Commission:

Recall election in Taichung City Constituency 2, 2021:
Yes: 51.48% (77,899 votes) / 26.41% of electorate
No: 48.52% (73,433 votes) / 24.90% of electorate
Turnout: 51.72%

Results by district:
Shalu:     Yes: 19,922 (53.00%)    
              No: 17,670 (47.00%)
Wuri:      Yes: 15,375 (48.95%)
              No: 15,375 (51.05%)
Dadu:     Yes: 12,522 (52.48%)    
              No: 11,340 (47.52%)
Longjing: Yes: 16,337 (52.35%)    
              No: 14,873 (47.65%)
Wufeng:  Yes: 13,743 (50.42%)    
              No: 13,513 (49.58%)

Typo. Wuri is Yes 15,375 No 16,037. BTW, Chen himself is from Wuri

Fixed, thanks

[MoreThanPolitics]

Here is the precinct map of yesterday's vote; more analysis coming later I guess?

(For members, please right-click on the map and select "Open image in new tab" for clearer version)



Scattor plot: (y=1.06x-0.00797; r^2=.787)

[jaichind]

Big ROC referendum day is tomorrow.

The 4 proposals are

Restart 4th Nuclear power plant
Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports
Referendum dates to be on election dates
Algae reef protection as part of the construction of the LNG Terminal

The KMT is for all 4 while DPP is against all 4.

To pass the proposal must win a plurality and win 25% of VAP.

With turnout most likely to be around 45% the most likely scenario is

Restart 4th Nuclear power plant fails
Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports passes
Referendum dates to be on election dates barely passes
Algae reef protection as part of the construction of the LNG Terminal barely passes.

If the turnout is near 50% then the Restart 4th Nuclear power proposal becomes neck-to-neck.

From a game theory point of view, neither the KMT nor DPP should want a complete victory.  There is anti-incumbency slowing building up against DPP for the 2022 local elections.  If the DPP "wins" by beating back 3 or even 4 of the proposal the anti-incumbency will build.  If the KMT "wins" by winning all 4 then the anti-incumbency will dissipate as the anti-DPP vote would have let off their steam.

[jaichind]

Count in progress.  Turnout is most likely less than 45%.  No ahead of Yes around 55-45 across the board.  Total victory for DPP.  It seems the DPP base came out while the KMT base did not.

[jaichind]

Nos still ahead 53-47 with Restart 4th Nuclear power plant around 54-46.  Most likely this will be the result.  The DPP successfully made this a vote about protecting the Tsai regime.  It is clear that Restart 4th Nuclear power plant is around 50-50 in polls but a large majority was for Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports.  But the vote share for both is within 1%-2% of each other.  So this vote became a base turnout election with DPP ending with a slight edge.  The independent voters that are mostly for Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports but most likely split 50/50 Restart 4th Nuclear power plant on did not turn out.

[jaichind]

Turnout is most likely around 40%. So there was no hope for any of the items given the turnout from the beginning.

[jaichind]

Counting is pretty much done. Turnout around 40.7%


Restart 4th Nuclear power plant                                                             47.16%   52.84%
Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports                                           48.79%   51.21%
Referendum dates to be on election dates                                               48.96%   51.04%
Algae reef protection as part of the construction of the LNG Terminal        48.37%    51.63%


The 4th nuclear power plant vote is most reflective of the Blue-Green balance which seems to be around 47/53. Part of the Blue base failed to turn out.

This is a major setback for new KMT Chairman Chu who is looking to run in 2024.  As I mentioned before I am not sure on the medium run this sort of victory is good for the DPP.  The anti-incumbency energy will continue to build and most likely hit DPP in 2022 assuming the KMT can stay united to take advantage of it.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Maps coming later, but here are some trivia on yesterday's referendums:

Out of 22 counties/cities in Taiwan:
Taipei, Keelung, Taoyuan, Hsinchu City, Hsinchu County, Miaoli, Nantou, Hualien, Taitung, Penghu, Kinmen & Matsu voted for all four questions;
Yilan, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung voted against all four questions;
New Taipei backed 3/4 questions except Q17 (reactivation of the 4th Nuclear Plant);
Taichung voted against 3/4 questions except Q19 (tying referenda with general elections).

Out of 368 districts/townships:
205 (55.71%) voted against all 4 questions;
6 (1.63%) voted against 3/4;
9 (2.45%) tied the vote;
8 (2.17%) voted against 1/4;
140 (38.04%) voted for all 4 questions.

[jaichind]

The Blue/Green breakdown seems to be reverting to a pre-Tsai pattern where the Northern counties/cities lean Blue (by a small margin) while Southern counties/cities lean Green (by large margins.)  New Tapie City was an outlier on the 4th Nuclear plant vote mostly because the 4th Nuclear Plant is in New Taipei City itself.

New Taipei KMT mayor and KMT Chairman Chu protégé 侯友宜 (Hou Yu-ih) will come under fire from the rest of the KMT for not coming out strongly for the 4 pro-KMT proposals.  Of course, the 4th Nuclear power plant being in New Taipei City makes it hard for Hou to come out for it.  Hou also has strong cross-party appeal and did not want to risk alienating potentially pro-Green supporters of his.  Hou is en route to win re-election in 2022 by a landslide and he sees no reason to risk his political career.

[jaichind]

Map of results.  Item 17 to 20  maps to

Restart 4th Nuclear power plant                                                            
Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports                                          
Referendum dates to be on election dates                                            
Algae reef protection as part of the construction of the LNG Terminal        



Which looks a lot like the 2004 ROC election



The only real exception is the 4th nuclear power plant lost in New Taipei City being that the plant is in New Taipei City

[jaichind]

The relative vote share of the 4 proposals is a severe defeat for the mobilization powers of the small parties.  The positions of the various ROC parties are

17 - Restart 4th Nuclear power plant                                                            
18 - Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports                                          
19 - Referendum dates to be on election dates                                            
20 - Algae reef protection as part of the construction of the LNG Terminal        

                     17         18          19            20
KMT              Yes        Yes         Yes          Yes
DPP                No        No          No           No
TPP                            Yes                        Yes
NPP                No        Yes         Yes          Yes
TSP                No         No         No            No
PFP                            Yes
GP                  No         No         Yes          No

Despite NPP and TPP being for 18 Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports but opposed/neutral on 17 - Restart 4th Nuclear power plant the vote share gap between 16 and 17 is around 1.6%.  This pretty much implies that 95% of those that voted are just KMT or DPP supporters and very few independents and minor party supporters came out.

This is very troubling for both TPP and NPP both of which you have to assume have around 5% (NPP) and 10% (NPP) support.  It sort of shows that in a low turnout election both these parties are not a factor.

It also shows that the core  KMT vs DPP-TSP-GP balance is around 47-53 which is not great but is an improvement relative to the results of the 2020 elections.  In 2022 one would assume the core base of both blocs will turn out and whatever the TPP vote would be that turns out would lean KMT if TPP is not on the ballot.  The same is true for NPP for DPP but the NPP base is smaller than TPP.   The independent vote that did not vote yesterday would clearly lean KMT due to anti-incumbency effects although it would be a mistake to assume they would lean KMT in 2024.

So net-net, the KMT is still in a good position for 2022 but 2024 would be a challenge as this referendum shows that the KMT base is still smaller than DPP-TSP-GP and the KMT winning in 2024 would depend on the dynamics of the TPP, NPP, and independent voters.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Big ROC referendum day is tomorrow.

The 4 proposals are

Restart 4th Nuclear power plant
Ban on ractopamine-containing pork imports
Referendum dates to be on election dates
Algae reef protection as part of the construction of the LNG Terminal

The KMT is for all 4 while DPP is against all 4.

At first I was surprised that both the DPP and GP opposed this, but it makes sense when framed in the context of natural gas (NG) vs nuclear, and those 2 parties wanting nuclear to be phased out completely. I imagine the TSU also opposes natural gas imports from China for “national security/sovereignty” reasons. 

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2021/12/19/2003769852

[MoreThanPolitics]

Administrative division-level results of Saturday's referendums:
(Right-click on the map and select "Open image in new tab" for clearer version)

[CumbrianLefty]

To state the obvious, those are remarkably similar results......