ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

It is a bit early but it makes sense to come up with some initial projections of how the legislative races will look like and comparison to 2016 (note there were some redistricting since 2016)

                                          2020                           2016
District                           KMT   DPP         KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
Taipei City (臺北市)            7        1             5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     7        5             2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         1        0             0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        5        1             2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          1        0             0      1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0             1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0             2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        5        3             3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0            2       0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2        2            1       3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        0        2            0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1            0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2            0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6            0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     0        8            0       9                             (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        2            0       3                             (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0        1            0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1        0            0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1            0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     0         1            0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0            1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0             1       0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    37       36           20      49     1        3

Doing well in New Taipei City (新北市), Taoyuan City (桃園市) and Taichung City(臺中市)  will decisive for KMT to win a majority.

2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        17           3     12   2

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 58 NPB 1 = 59
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 49 NPP 2= 51
TPP                                                                 TPP 3

This is assuming that TPP loses ground due to Guo not running and giving the DPP the benefit of the doubt in many tossup districts.  The downside is greater for the DPP.  I can see DPP easily losing 3-5 district seats on top of my projections.   Overall it gives the KMT is very small majority.

[xelas81]

It is a bit early but it makes sense to come up with some initial projections of how the legislative races will look like and comparison to 2016 (note there were some redistricting since 2016)

                                          2020                           2016
District                           KMT   DPP         KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
Taipei City (臺北市)            7        1             5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     7        5             2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         1        0             0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        5        1             2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          1        0             0      1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0             1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0             2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        5        3             3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0            2       0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2        2            1       3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        0        2            0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1            0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2            0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6            0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     0        8            0       9                             (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        2            0       3                             (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0        1            0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1        0            0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1            0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     0         1            0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0            1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0             1       0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    37       36           20      49     1        3

Doing well in New Taipei City (新北市), Taoyuan City (桃園市) and Taichung City(臺中市)  will decisive for KMT to win a majority.

2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        17           3     12   2

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 58 NPB 1 = 59
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 49 NPP 2= 51
TPP                                                                 TPP 3

This is assuming that TPP loses ground due to Guo not running and giving the DPP the benefit of the doubt in many tossup districts.  The downside is greater for the DPP.  I can see DPP easily losing 3-5 district seats on top of my projections.   Overall it gives the KMT is very small majority.

Would NPP even make the 5% threshold?
NPP only won 6.11% in 2016, so any big drop in support would put them below the threshold.

[jaichind]

Would NPP even make the 5% threshold?
NPP only won 6.11% in 2016, so any big drop in support would put them below the threshold.

A couple of points. The 6.11% NPP won in 2016 PR is most likely an underestimate of NPP support back in 2016.  There was a clear last minute appeal by DPP for NPP PR voters to vote DPP to ensure that the DPP became the largest party.  My base case for 2020 was also for NPP to fail to clear the 5% threshold.  But with Guo not running and, assuming Ko does not run either, TPP will falter and a lot of the anti-Tsai non-KMT urban youth vote that swung to TPP from NPP when Ko formed TPP will start to flow back just getting NPP above the 5%.  Whereas before I thought TPP could win 5 or even maybe 6 PR seats I think now they will come in at 3 seats.  Of course if Ko runs or finds another way to push up support for TPP the equations will change again.

[jaichind]

Xfutures odds on 2020 Prez winner

DPP Tsai  60
KMT Han 37
Guo         2
Ko           1

[jaichind]

9/17 5PM deadline passes with Ko not filing to run as an independent.  So unless Ko and perhaps Guo runs on the PFP or NPP (for Ko) ticket both of these guys are out.  The chances of Ko running on the PFP ticket is low but still possible.  For Guo to do so seems very unlikely.   Looks like Lu so far is the only significant Third Party candidate.

The pro-Taiwan independence faction within the DPP are pretty steamed.  They are now asking for a re-run of the DPP Prez primary between Tsai and Lai since the primary method was based on a relative performance of a 3 way race match-up versus Han and Ko which now is unlikely to take place.   Of course this will not happen.  Fortunately for Tsai the old hardliner Right Independence bloc are pretty small these days and it seems they are going to vote Lu or abstain anyway so there is not point trying to placate them.

[jaichind]

In the end Ko did not register as an independent candidate since today is the last day to do so. Some of Ko's inner circle did seem to want to register Ko  but seems to have missed the 5PM deadline.  According to interviews with Ko's inner circle it seems Ko did struggle with his decision.

An interview with Ko's wife gives a glimpse into the non-conformist and even hippie image he likes to projects which does make him popular with the anti-politics youth.  According to Ko's wife this morning before leaving for work Ko said to his wife "Oh, I might end up registering as an independent candidate for Prez today. That requires $500K deposit.  Do you have $500K laying around I can use?"  Ko's wife said no and Ko said "Oh well, that might be a problem"

This story clearly is "fake" as there is no way Ko is that disorganized but it this sort of image that Ko creates that does get him a solid following with disillusioned and non-conformist urban youth .

[jaichind]

It seems pro-Chen Right Independence FA running mate for Ex-DPP Vice Prez 呂秀蓮(Annette Lu) is 彭百顯(Peng Pai-hsien) who was the DPP county magistrate of  Nanto County(南投縣) during 1997-2001.   He broke with DPP soon after being elected in 1997 and formed the pro-Taiwan Independence DPP splinter NNA losing in 2001 when the DPP vote was split between him and the DPP candidate.    He has since mostly backed DPP in Nanto County(南投縣) politics.  In 2018 Peng disbanded NNA I guess in anticipation of joining up with FA.

The entire FA nominating  Annette Lu is sort of weird.  Annette Lu aside from being pro-Taiwan Independence starting in the 1970s was also a noted feminist.   FA has at is core the socially conservative Presbyterian pro-Independence faction is very Conservative on gay rights and role of women in society so this entire hitchup is wired.  In think at its core Lu does not like Tasi.  Lu sees herself as the "DPP women" and is angry at Tsai for getting ahead of her  when it should have been Lu's job to break the gender barrier for the DPP.  So much for female solitary even when it comes to a strong feminist like Annette Lu.

[jaichind]

Latest xfutres odds for 2020 Prez election winner

DPP Tsai  60
KMT Han 40

Market, which I agree with, sort of feel that the Guo vote will mostly flow back equally to Tsai and Han and that ex-DPP Vice Prez Lu will not impact Tsai that much.

One x-factor would be the role of DPP ex-Prez Chen.  He already indicated that he feels that Lu will win no more than 1%-2% vote but that if he campaigned for Lu she might get up to 5%-6% which is an implicit threat to Tsai.  If the election between Tsai and Han tightens then DPP ex-Prez might be a threat to Tsai.  Of course what Chen wants is for Tsai to promise to pardon Chen after she wins re-election in return for Chen staying out of the news during the election.

[jaichind]

At this stage DPP Tsai has a clear 8%-9% lead over KMT Han in the polls and seems headed to a comfortable victory.  This seems unthinkable 11 months ago but she has pulled off the impossible. 

While KMT's Han is the underdog now he still has a fighting chance.  Most polls has Tsai winning over 90% of the DPP vote but Han winning only around 65% of the KMT vote.  if Han can get 90% of the KMT vote then the race would be neck-to-neck.  So KMT Han has to fucus on getting KMT Guo supporters to consolidate behind him.  Getting HK riots off the news clearly will help Han but that is outside his control.

Xfutures odds are right now
DPP Tsai 55
KMT Han 45

The next roll of the dice would be in Nov when PFP and NPP decides if they will nominate someone.  PFP is interesting as PFP could run Soong again or perhaps nominate Ko or KMT Wang.   PFP nominating Ko would be weird since Ko heads TPP which overlaps with light Blue PFP and then Ko and Soong will have to explain to Ko and pro-PFP voters which party to vote for on the Legislative PR slate.   If NPP nominates 黃國昌(Huang) he could do real damage for DPP Tsai.

The reasons why the xfutures odds for Han is so high despite being down 8%-9% is the hidden KMT vote plus possible 3rd party candidates splitting the DPP Tsai vote (DPP rebel Lu, PFP candidate whoever he is, and NPP candidate whoever he ends up being.

For me I think given the HK situation I rather just have DPP Tsai win but the KMT win a legislative majority to block Tsai the next 4 years and go for a KMT landslide in 2024.  Even if KMT Han wins the HK riots means there is very little chance of a PRC-ROC breakthrough so we might as well just punt this to 2024. 

[jaichind]

Updated projections on Legislative election.  The KMT base not consolidating around Han means that there is a risk that KMT turnout will be less than expected which I am trying to take into account.

                                          2020                           2016
District                           KMT   DPP         KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
Taipei City (臺北市)            7        1             5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     6        6             2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         0        1             0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        4        2             2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          1        0             0      1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0             1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0             2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        4        4             3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0            2       0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2        2            1       3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        0        2            0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1            0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2            0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6            0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     0        8            0       9                             (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        2            0       3                             (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0        1            0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1        0            0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1            0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     0         1            0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0            1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0             1       0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    33       40           20      49     1        3

Doing well in New Taipei City (新北市), Taoyuan City (桃園市) and Taichung City(臺中市)  will decisive for KMT to win a majority.

2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        16           4     12   2

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 53 NPB 1 = 54
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 53 NPP 2= 55
TPP                                                                 TPP 4

Which means a virtual tie between the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green blocs with TPP holding the balance of power.  Of course this scenario, absent a KMT collapse, is beginning to represent the cap for the DPP.   I can easily see how the DPP could lose 6-10 seats from the scenario even with a small shift to the KMT.  So the KMT should have a lot of upside from here with limited upside for DPP.

Current xfutures market has for seats for 2020 Legislature elections    
KMT  50
DPP  48
NPP    3
OTH  12

OTH at 12 is pretty high.  NPB will win 1 for sure and TPP I can see winning perhaps 5 or even 6 seats since TPP can only win PR seats and have zero chance for district seats.  So I am not sure how we get to 12 for OTH.   There are 2 ex-NPP pro-DPP independent and 1 KMT rebel independent  running with DPP support.  All 3 are underdogs but I guess all 3 could win.  So if we add those 3 we get at best: 1 NPB, 6 TPP, 3 pro-DPP ind which is 10.  I just cannot find how OTH gets to 12.  TPP at 8 PR seats means TPP PR vote share would be around 20%-21% which is just hard to believe but we will see.

[jaichind]

Summery of various minor parties running in district and/or PR slate.

TPP (Taiwan People Party) (台灣民眾黨) - Ko outfit.  Ko started as Deep green but the platform of TPP is fairly anti-DPP and if anything leans slight Blue these days but the party clearly draws support from light blue and light green urban youth voters.

NPP(New People Power) (時代力量) - Deep Green party created as part of 2014 Sunflower protests.  Was pro-DPP in 2014-2016 period.  Pro-DPP part of this party has mostly left and aligned with DPP.  Party is now anti-DPP even as it is Deep Green.  Some talk of possible alliance with Ko but with Ko turning to a lean light blue position this does not seem possible.

PFP(People First Party)(親民黨) - KMT rebel Soong party and old KMT Deep Blue splinter.  Has shifted to  Light Blue over the years and an on and off ally for Ko.  With KMT falling apart in 2016 it was able to win a lot of the light blue vote.  This time it will do poorly with some KMT revival.

NP (New Party) (新黨) - Old KMT radical unification splinter.  In 2016 with KMT in the dumps it was able to draw almost 5% of the PR vote.  This time around it will be a much lower.

TAPA (Taiwan Action Party Alliance) (一邊一國行動黨) - ex-DPP Prez Chen Right independence DPP splinter outfit. Mostly will back Tsai for now but will try to blackmail DPP and Tsai for an alliance.

SDP (Social Democratic Party) (社會民主黨) - Left pan-Green party and DPP splinter.  Key leader is a family friend (Fang Yun) 范雲.  Was allied with DPP in 2016.  This time out on its own.

FA (Formosa Alliance) (喜樂島聯盟) - Right Independence DPP splinter.  Very socially conservative and will run DPP ex-Vice Prez Lu (who is a noted feminist which makes this alliance sort of weird).  Looks like this time is just out to get Tsai no matter what.

SP (Stability of Power) (安定力量) - Christian Conservative party running on anti-Gay marriage platform.  Successor party of 2016 Christian Conservative Faith and Hope League(信心希望聯盟).  Will eat into the socially conservative KMT vote.

CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟) - successor party of the 2016 KMT splinter MKT(民國黨).  Will eat into the KMT vote in places like  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) and Keelong City (基隆市)  where some local KMT leaders have gone over the CPA.

NPB (Non-Party Bloc) (無黨團結聯盟) - mostly Light Blue outfit that is a tactical ally of KMT.
 
GP (Green Party) (綠黨) - Left Pan-Green party.  Founded by family friend professor Gao (高成炎).  On and off ally of DPP.

TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進) - radical Right independence outfit that focus more on economic Rightism versus Social conservatism of FA.

TRP (Taiwan Renewal Party)  (台灣維新) - DPP splinter and party of ex-DPP County magistrate of Tainan Su.  Mostly a light green force.  Could be a tactical ally of Ko. 

[jaichind]

Internal DPP sources say that their current estimates are  "DPP should get at least 50 seat in the legislative election.  It is not certain DPP can win 57 seats for a majority but DPP is in a good position to stop a KMT majority" which mostly matches my current projection.  Still this projection has a lot of upside for KMT.

[jaichind]

The good new for Han is that the HK situation can no longer add to the DPP campaign and going forward the KMT could only gain even thought the issue has put KMT in a deep hole.  Right now the trend in the last couple of in the HK clearly is running in favor of CCP and against the protesters.  The CCP strategy is clear: do not crackdown but stonewall all protester demands and wait for the radical fringe of the protesters to take over so the revolution would eventually eat itself.  The CCP is winning the waiting game.  While the inevitable CCP victory will not take place soon enough to help the KMT the CCP clearly have the upper hand now in HK and especially in the fight for Mainland China public opinion.  If the CCP is the CCP of the 1940s that ran rings around us KMT I would say part of the HK protest radical fringe has been infiltrated by CCP agenda and accelerate the move toward the revolution eating itself.  I suspect the CCP these days is not what it used to be but if that is what is taking place it will not surprise me at all.       

[jaichind]

Han takes leave from his role as mayor of Kaohsiung and began a bunch of rallies. While polls still show him behind by 8%-10% the size of his rallies seems to have been surprising.

Within the DPP a power struggle is breaking between the DPP Speaker of the House Su(蘇嘉全) who on paper is a member of the pro-Tsai Welfare State Alliance (福利國系) faction is taking on the New Tide and the Su faction of DPP PM Su(蘇貞昌) over the DPP PR list.  What is funny about this open battle is that Tsai, and the two Sus (蘇貞昌 and 蘇嘉全) are all from Pingdong(屏東). The nephew of the DPP Speaker of the House Su(蘇嘉全) lost his seat due to redistricting in Pingdong(屏東) and there is a battle to get him onto the "safe section" DPP PR list which is opposed by the New Tide and
DPP PM Su(蘇貞昌) factions.  It seems that  DPP Speaker of the House Su(蘇嘉全)'s wife might run as an DPP rebel in Pingdong(屏東).

This public spectacle of another DPP civil war plus the size of Han rallies have shifted the xfutures odds a bit in Han's favor. 

xfutures market on ROC Prez winner in 2020
Tsai 51.5
Han 48.5

[jaichind]

Current xfutures odds on ROC legislative election seats

KMT     52
DPP     48
NPP       3
Others 10 (I assume TPP 7 NBP 1 pro-DPP Ind 2)

Which would be a hung legislature with TPP holding the balance of power

[jaichind]

Latest pro-Blue but mostly pro-Guo so somewhat anti-Han TVBS poll does not give Han much reason for hope.  Difference versus Sept poll

2 way
DPP Tsai   52(+2)
KMT Han  39(+1)

5 way
DPP Tsai       47(--)
KMT Han      36(--)
DPP rebel Lu  3(+1)
NP Yang        1(--)
PFP Wang      7(--)

DPP rebel Lu I think is well on her way to get enough signature to be on the ballot.  Not clear if NP can make it.  Also not clear if Wang will actually run on the PFP ticket or will it be Soong (or even Ko)


2 way with Chu as Han's running mate
DPP Tsai         53(+4)
KMT Han-Chu  42(-2)

So even having Chu on the ticket is no longer the cure all to help the Han ticket.

Han has to hope for a reshuffle of the deck in Nov when it is more clear what role Ko will play in the race.

Same poll is positive for the KMT for the PR vote

KMT    37
DPP     25
TPP     12
NPP      8
PFP       2
NP        0.8
GP        0.8
TSU      0.2

If Lu gets on the ballot I suspect Right Independence FA will do OK.  TPP at 12 and NPP at 8 shows a large bloc of voters that seem to back Tsai but is negative on DPP.  So there is a large block of anti-Han anti-DPP voters out there which are for Tsai in the Prez race but for Third Party in the legislative race.  Sort of positive for KMT in the legislative race but it is still too early to be sure this will not change.

Historically pro-DPP Xfutures markets still have very pro-Han odds now it has the odds of Han victory at nearly neck-to-neck with Tsai

Xfutures 2020 Prez winner odds
Tsai   51
Han   49

The punters there must know something I do not know or just assume the Pan-Blue vote will consolidate once the campaign really gets started.

Xfutures Legislature seat market has it also neck-to-neck between KMT and DPP
KMT     50
DPP      49
NPP       3
Others  11 (I have to assume TPP 8, NBP 1, 2 pro-DPP independents)

Where if true TPP holding a strong balance of power.

What gets me about these markets is if Tsai-Han is really neck-to-neck then KMT should win a majority on its own in the legislative election.  If it is neither Pan-Blue and Pan-Greens getting a majority with TPP holding the balance of power then it should be Tsai winning by a good margin over Han. 

[jaichind]

UDN (pro-Blue but also pro-Guo so any bias might be against Han) poll also has Han in the big deficit.

2 way
DPP Tsai  42(-3)
KMT Han  30(-3)

Approval/Disapproval
DPP Tsai    34(-3)/39(-5)
KMT Han    29(-2)/48(-8)

Likely to win
DPP Tsai   47(-6)
KMT Han   23(-5)


The trend is both candidates losing support.   DPP Tsai above above 90% support with DPP voters while KMT Han has 70% support with of KMT voters.  So if the KMT vote can consolidate behind Han then his deficit will be more around 6% which is where I think where the race will end up.

[Continential]

I can't believe in 2018, everyone thought that the DPP would lose in a landslide.

[jaichind]

In a victory for Tsai, FA's Lu who also was DPP Vice Prez dropped out of the race citing legal issues.  In reality it seems she failed to get the some 280K signatures.  This is a surprise as I would expect her to pass this threshold given her name recognition.  Anyway this is a slight positive for Tsai but a slight negative for DPP legislative race.

[jaichind]

DPP primary challenger Lai finally appears publicly with DPP Prez Tsai in a rally.  There are talks now of a Tasi-Lai ticket.


The DPP clearly consolidated their base way better than the KMT.  This is not a surprise in theory.  The way the KMT is split is expected when the KMT was in power but it is unexpected that they can still be so divided when they are in opposition.

Xfutures of course still does not buy it and have the race still neck-to-neck

Xfutures Prez winner odds
DPP Tsai     51.5
KMT Han    48.5

I think the reasons for KMT Han optimism are
a) number of undecided seems very large and could break for Han
b) NPP and PFP have yet to nominate candidates and Ko could still get in in some way on a Kamikaze mission to take down Tsai

a) is especially interesting.  The old rule of thumb is that DPP base are lower income lower educated high age and as a result tend not to respond to polls.  As a result for the KMT to win they have to be ahead in the polls by at least 5%.  This time around given the fact that that DPP Tsai's lead is based on urban youth middle class that are anti-Han but also anti-DPP the it is Han that is most likely under-polling while this ant-Han but anti-DPP Tsai vote could be vulnerable.

Overall I still do not buy it, all these factors might mean that KMT Han is behind by 5%-7% instead of 9%-11%  but he is well behind and I do not see how he catches up.  At best he can make it close.

[jaichind]

Recent developments are

1) It seems on the DPP side it will be the Tsai-Lai ticket.  Again amazing how the DPP united itself after the vicious primary battle.  Their killer instinct means they actually deserve to win this election cycle.
2) NPP will not run a candidate.  Another good news for DPP Tsai.
3) PFP will not run KMT former Speaker of the Legislature Wang and most likely will go with Soong again.  This is sort of good news for DPP Tsai as it most likely takes PFP running Ko off the table as Ko has the ability to  split the anti-Han vote.   

Latest Chinatimes poll (pro-Han) has it at 

2-way
DPP Tsai    37.8
KMT Han   25.9

3-way
DPP Tsai    36.5
KMT Han   26.4
PFP Soong  7.9


Soong actually eats into both the DPP and KMT vote which is not a surprise as Soong is pan-Blue but also attracts anti-Han but anti-DPP vote that would go Tsai.

Xfutures of course stlll does not buy all these good news for Tsai and still have it as a near neck-to-neck race

Xfutures winner of 2020 ROC Prez election
DPP Tsai  52
KMT Han  48

But I am running out of reasons why Han would reasonably have a 50-50 shot versus a strong underdog.  I guess punters still expect some last minute way Ko will get into this some way some how.

[jaichind]

Looks like some anti-New Tide faction part of the DPP are coming out against the likely announcement of the Tsai-Lai ticket.  They point out that a Tsai-Lai ticket would merely provoke a Han-Chu ticket and most likely would reduced the Tsai lead over Han.  Of course their real reason is to block the power of the New Tide faction which Lai is a member of.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll has the gap closing but still fairly large and roughly at Sept 2019 levels



Change from 2 weeks ago

2 way
DPP Tsai     49 (-3)
KMT Han    40 (+1)

3 way
DPP Tsai     45
KMT Han    37
PFP Soong  10

3 way with best VP picks for each party
DPP Tsai-Lai       45
KMT Han-Chu     39
PFP Soong-Wang  9

So Lai does not add to an already united DPP and Pan-Green camp but Chu does help Han pick up a couple of points by pulling in some anti-Han Pan-Blue votes

Legislative  PR vote
KMT      37.0 (--)
DPP       25.0 (--)
TPP       10.0 (-2)
NPP        7.0 (-1)
PFP         2.0 (--)
NP          0.9 (-0.1)
TSU        0.8 (+0.6)
GP          0.3 (-0.5)

Mostly the same with some TPP lost of support

[jaichind]

Updated projections on Legislative election.  The KMT stabilizing.

                                          2020                           2016
District                           KMT   DPP         KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
Taipei City (臺北市)            7        1             5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     6        6             2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         0        1             0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        4        2             2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          1        0             0      1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0             1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0             2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        4        4             3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0            2       0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2        2            1       3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        0        2            0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1            0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2            0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6            0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     0        8            0       9                             (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        2            0       3                             (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0        1            0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1        0            0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1            0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     0         1            0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0            1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0             1       0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    33       40           20      49     1        3

Doing well in New Taipei City (新北市), Taoyuan City (桃園市) and Taichung City(臺中市)  will decisive for KMT to win a majority.

2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        16           5     11   2

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 53 NPB 1 = 54
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 52 NPP 2= 54
TPP                                                                 TPP 5

Which means a virtual tie between the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green blocs with TPP holding the balance of power.   KMT have a lot of upside from here in places like New Taipei City (新北市) and Taichung City(臺中市) although Hualian County(花蓮縣) could see KMT lose due to a possible KMT rebel.

Current xfutures market has for seats for 2020 Legislature elections   
KMT  54
DPP  44
NPP    3
OTH  12

OTH at 12 is pretty high.  NPB will win 1 for sure and TPP I can see winning perhaps 6 seats since TPP can only win PR seats and have zero chance for district seats.  So I am not sure how we get to 12 for OTH.   There are 2 ex-NPP pro-DPP independent and 1 KMT rebel independent  running with DPP support.  All 3 are underdogs but I guess all 3 could win.  So if we add those 3 we get at best: 1 NPB, 6 TPP, 3 pro-DPP ind which is 10.  I just cannot find how OTH gets to 12.  TPP at 8 PR seats means TPP PR vote share would be around 20%-21% which is just hard to believe but we will see.

[jaichind]

Han selects  ex-PM Chang(張善政) who is a pro-Blue but not a member of KMT as is VP pick.  His ideal candidate would be Chu who turned down Han's offer.  Chu figures Han's chances of winning is not high and does not want to be damaged (again as Chu ran in 2016 as the KMT candidate and was smashed) which could hurt his chances for 2024.