ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

One problem for the Pan-Greens this legislative election PR section is that it benefited in 2016 from a lot of Pan-Blue wasted votes and that this time around the shoe would be on the other foot.

In 2016 PR section it was

DPP  44.06%  18
KMT  26.91%  11
PFP    6.25%    3
NPP    6.11%   2

Minor Pan-Blue parties: 9.99%
Minor Pan-Green parties: 6.41%

Which produces a Pan-Green/Pan-Blue split of 56.58%/43.42% which mostly matches DPP Tsai's 56.1% in the Prez race.

This time around most likely it will be something like

DPP    31%   12
KMT   31%   12
TPP    12%     5
NPP      7%    3
PFP      6%     2

Pan-Green minors
TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進)  2.5%  Economic Right radical Independence
GP(Green Party) (綠黨) 1.0%
FA((Formosa Alliance) 喜樂島聯盟 1.0% Social Conservative Right radical Independence
TPAP(Taiwan Action Party Alliance) 一邊一國行動黨 Pro-Chen Right  radical Independence
TSU 0.5% (KMT pro-independence splinter)
SSFPP(Sovereign State for Formosa & Pescadores Party)  合一行動聯盟 0.5% Radical Independence
TRP(Taiwan Renewal Party) 台灣維新 0.5% DPP Light Green splinter
IU(Interfaith Union) 宗教聯盟 0.5% Religious Pan-Green
Total: 7.5%

Pan-Blue minors
NP 2.0%
CPA (Congress Party Alliance) 國會政黨聯盟 1.5% KMT splinter
SFP (Stabilizing Force Party) 安定力量 1.0% Religious Social Conservative Pan-Blue
CUPP (Chinese Unification Promotion Party) 中華統一促進黨 0.5% Radical Right Unification
LP (Labor Party) 勞動黨 0.25% Minor radical Left Unification
UAA (United Action Alliance) 合一行動聯盟 0.25% Minor radical Right Unificatoin
Total: 5.5%

Which adds up to

Pan-Green/Pan-Blue/TPP to be 45.5%/42.5%/12%

At least half of TPP PR vote are going to vote for DPP Tsai which puts DPP Tsai at around 52% which if anything I think overestimates DPP Tsai from my point of view.

So the smaller wasted vote on the Pan-Blue side relative to the Pan-Green side will close the gap between the two camps considerably.  The main risk to the Pan-Blue camp would be if PFP fails to pass 5% threshold.  

[jaichind]

DPP passes the infiltration law.  Mostly an insurance against losing its majority in Jan 2020 plus a attempt to take votes from various smaller pan-Green parties (like NPP and TSP especially).  DPP came out and said that their internal polling used to have DPP KMT PR seat (out of 34) at 14-10.  Now they have it at 12-12.  This mostly a ploy to get NPP TSP and other minor Pan-Green parties to switch over to DPP on the PR slate and could very well reflect reality.  They did this trick back in 2016 with great effect where NPP was polling around 10% on the PR slate but a last minute DPP appeal that the KMT was catching up drove NPP down to around 6% on election day. Most likely this time the non-DPP Pan-Green voters would not fall for the same trick twice.

As for DPP projections they claim DPP Tsai would win by 15%-23% over KMT Han and that the DPP would win 53-61 seats.  KMT claim KMT Han would win by 2% and that the KMT will win 58-60 seats.

Back in 2016 DPP projected 55-57 seats but ended up winning 68.  In 2016 KMT projected 40-53 and ended up with 35.  Of course 2016 was a DPP wave election.

Clearly if DPP Tsai wins by 15%-23% the DPP will win well above 65 seats so the DPP projection is mostly about getting the Pan-Green vote to turn out given DPP might not win a majority and convince KMT Han-PFP Soong marginal voters to not tactically vote for KMT Han given the race is hopeless for the KMT Han.

KMT projection is just unrealistic across the board and is mostly about getting the core KMT vote to turn out.

[jaichind]

Due to the ban on polls coming into place Jan 1st, Xfutures trading are closing down.  Final odds on 2020 Prez election shifted a bit toward DPP Tsai but still unrealistically positive for KMT Han

2020 ROC Prez winner
DPP Tsai   53.5
KMT Han  46.5

Xfutures markets for legislature has the following medium projection:

                                          2020                                              2016
District                           KMT   DPP  KMT   pro-DPP     KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
                                                      rebel
Taipei City (臺北市)            6        1                1             5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     4        8                               2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         0        1                               0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        6        0                               2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          0        1                              0       1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0                               1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0                               2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        4        3                1             3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0                               2      0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2        2                               1      3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        1        1                              0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1                              0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2                              0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6                              0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     1        7                               0       9                            (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        1                1             0       3                            (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0        1                              0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      0        0         1                   0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1                             0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     1         0                              0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0                             1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0                              1       0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    33       36        1      3          20      49     1        3

It has DPP doing surprisingly well in New Taipei City (新北市) but the KMT with a shock sweep of Taoyuan City (桃園市).  

2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

KMT attempt to retake the third Plains Aborigine seat from DPP fails.

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        11    2     7     11    3

Very strong TPP performance in the PR slate.

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 48 PFP 2 NPB 1 Ind 1= 52
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 48 NPP 3 Ind 3         = 54
TPP                                                                 TPP 7

Similar net result to what I think will take place, KMT-DPP virtual tie with DPP needing both NPP and TPP to pass any laws.

Of course if KMT Han is that close to winning the election as xfutures claims then the Pan-Blue bloc will most likely emerge with a majority versus falling short of it. 

This sort of legislative numbers implies some sort of 7%-10% DPP Tsai victory and not a neck-to-neck race in the Prez election.

[jaichind]

Ko in an interview claimed "if the DPP keeps on coming after me, I might endorse KMT Han the night before the election"

This is mostly posturing to get his name and TPP into the news and also try to shift some Pan-Blue voters over to voting TPP on the PR slate.  The fact is if Ko did something like that while it might shift 1% or 2% over to KMT it would lead to the collapse of the TPP PR vote since a majority of the TPP PR vote clearly prefer DPP Tsai over KMT Han and will abandon TPP on droves.  So this is really an empty threat.

[KaiserDave]

Looks like Tsai will win easily, excellent news. KMT is filled with pro Beijing sycophants.

[jaichind]

The chief of the ROC armed forces general staff, Air Force General Shen Yi-ming(沈一鳴) was killed in a Black Hawk military helicopter crash. All political camps have halted campaigning.  Shen, who was born in 1957, like all is predecessors, are of Mainland Chinese origins (his parents are from JiangSu Province.)  Many Mainlanders that came over to Taiwan Province in 1949 were attached to the ROC armed forces and Mainlanders still dominate the upper echelons of the ROC military command.     

All things equal this helps DPP Tsai since it merely reduces the news cycle for KMT Han to turn things around.

[jaichind]

If you look at all the pro-Han Youtuber (桃園孫先生) (Mr Sun of  Taoyuan) since early Nov when he started to poll DPP Tsai vs KMT Han vs PFP PFP

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0mVh9cQGuHDE4KpBLWFSew/videos

You can break down the results this way
Polls done in Open Markets
KMT Han 57.9% DPP Tsai 36.2% PFP Soong 5.8%

Polls done in Train/subway stations
DPP Tsai 50.5% KMT Han 41.6% PFP Soong 7.9%

Open markets tend to have people who are older than 40s, rural, and lower education while those in train/subway stations tend to be 20s-40s, urban and higher education.

Historically KMT is strong in the North, DPP strong in the South and Central Taiwan Province would be the battleground.  KMT also stronger in urban areas and DPP on rural areas.  This time some of this will flip around.  I can pretty much now predict that more rural Central Taiwan Province (places like Taichung City(臺中市) and Changhua County(彰化縣)) will likely be KMT Han's strongest region while DPP Tsai will outperform in urban Northern Taiwan.  I suspect also that Han will outperform in some of the rural areas in Southern Taiwan Province (like Yunlin County(雲林縣)  and perhaps even Deep Green Jaiyi County(嘉義縣).)

[jaichind]

Last weekend for campaigning before the election next Saturday.  It seems to me youth turnout and the shift of the youth vote would determine the size of DPP Tsai's victory from significant to narrow.  I went to PTT which has a political discussion board which clearly leans progressive pro-Independence youth.   

Most of the discussions there seems to indicate a fairly lethargic support for DPP Tsai (some even talking about voting PFP Soong as a protest vote.)  If seems vast majority of this crowd will vote DPP Tsai but with low enthusiasm.  The bad news for the KMT is that this same crowd back in 2018 was clearly pro-Ko but also anti-DPP.  The bad news for DPP is this same crowd was clearly for DPP Tsai and DPP back in 2014 and yet still harbor significant disappointment with DPP.   I suspect turnout from the progressive youth will clearly fall from 2016 which I guess can only be good news for KMT Han.

Much more of the discussion centers around which party to vote for on the PR slate.  The radical pro-independence crowd are discussing which if (DPP NPP or TSP) is better.  The radical pro-independence crowd seems to be split between pro- (DPP or TSP) or anti- DPP (NPP).  Even the pro-DPP crowd seems to prefer TSP but fear that TSP will not hit 5% (they are right of course) and are struggling to figure out if they should vote DPP tactically.  The moderate pro-independence crowd seems to struggle between TPP and NPP. Many seem to be disappointed in Ko relative to their high level of support.  I suspect TPP might under-perform with the youth vote which is the same thing as TPP will under-perform.

It seems NPP is doing a lot better than what one would expect.  It seems NPP's choice of a pro-Independence but anti-DPP position gives it a chance to fight to get PR vote across a broad spectrum of the youth vote and is competitive with DPP TSP TPP and perhaps even PFP for PR votes.  I suspect they might over-perform based on the discussions on the youth progressive PPT political board.

[jaichind]

HK media sources report that ROC underground gambling odds still have DPP Tsai with a 3.6% lead over KMT Han, much closer than expected.

[jaichind]

2016 October Surprise singer superstar 周子瑜 (Chow Tzu-yu)



Returns to ROC to most likely vote for the first time (she just turned 20)

Right before the 2016 election she was accused of being pro-Taiwan Independence (a bum rap) and the Korean band she belong to, fearful of losing PRC business, pushed her to go on Youtub to say she is for Chinese reunification.  This clear coercion pushed up youth turnout and most likely swing 1%-2% from KMT to DPP.

2020 October surprise so far seems to be more negative for DPP camp.

First we have the infiltration law which will have the effect of concentrating Pan-Green votes toward the DPP but risks pushing up pro-Blue urban independents which was turned off by KMT Han toward higer  turnout  

Then a couple of days ago DPP MP 林靜儀(Lin Ching-yi) and official spokesperson of DPP Tsai said on in an interview with Deutsche Welle "Being for Unification is treason"  which led to an outcry and hurried damage control by DPP and DPP Tsai.

Then today there was suppose to be a bombshell expose by a key tabloid about alleged affairs that KMT Han had.  Instead it what they was that Han and his family allegedly looking into immigrating to Canada years ago.  Even if true unless they can find evidence of Han having Canada citizenship this is a nothing-berger.

The main risk to DPP Tsai now is that there might be a perfect storm where KMT Han captures a good part of the low educated rural vote that previously leaned DPP or did not vote and these recent DPP provocative actions drives the pro-Blue urban independent vote toward KMT Han.

The medium case of DPP Tsai has not change in my view (51% of the vote but the downside has fallen from 49% to something like 47% which could let in KMT Han in a squeaker.  If so KMT Han would have pulled off a Trump like victory in 2016.  What gave Trump his victory was not the gains he made with non-college whites but that the GOP suburban vote came home last minute.  It is clear that Han will gain with rural low educated older voters but he is certain to lose due to his losses with urban educated lean pan-Blue voters.  If they come home like Trump 2016 this race could actually get close.
  

[KaiserDave]

Tsai should be fine

[jaichind]

Last night KMT held the largest KMT rally in history in Taipei

Image Link

Historically only DPP rallies could gather such numbers.

Now the pressure is on DPP Tsai to match it tonight (night before the election) when she holds a DPP rally in the same spot.   KMT will hold a rally in Kaoshiung tonight.

It is clear that the DPP are getting worried although the worry might be exaggerated to to simulate Pan-Green turnout with the threat of a possible KMT Han victory.

[jaichind]

DPP Tsai had a rally in Tapei that was not as large as KMT Han but still sizable and should clam fears within the DPP camp of a massive enthusiasm gap

[jaichind]

Most pro-Blue commentators have the race as 50/50 with the Han-Tsai margin at -3% to 3%.  Pro-Green commentators all have Tsai's lead over Han at "at least 7%"

[jaichind]

Final projection from me day before the election

Prez race
DPP Tsai   51
KMT Han  45
PFP Soong 4

The most recent Han surge seems more about getting back votes that KMT lost to PFP Soong than actually eating into the DPP Tsai's vote.  A good part of the PFP PR vote will most likely go with KMT Han as a result of the most recent KMT Han surge.


ROC legislative races

                                          2020                                              2016
District                           KMT   DPP  KMT   pro-DPP     KMT  DPP  pro-DPP  NPP
                                                      rebel
Taipei City (臺北市)            5        2                 1            5      2                   1
New Taipei City (新北市)     4        8                               2      9                   1
Keelong City (基隆市)         0        1                               0      1
Taoyuan City (桃園市)        4        2                               2      3       1
Hsinchu City(新竹市)          1        0                              0       1
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)    2        0                               1      0                              (Gained a seat)
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2        0                               2      0
Taichung City(臺中市)        5        3                               3      4                  1
Nanto County(南投縣)        2        0                               2      0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  3        1                               1      3
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        1        1                              0       2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0        1                              0       1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0        2                              0       2
Tainan City (臺南市)           0        6                              0       5                            (Gained a seat)
Kaoshiung City (高雄市)     1        7                               0       9                            (Lost a seat)
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0        1                1             0       3                            (Lost a seat)
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0        1                              0       1
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      0        0         1                   0       1
Taidong County(臺東縣)     0         1                             0       1
Penghu County(澎湖縣)     1         0                              0       1
Kinmen County(金門縣)     1         0                             1       0
Lienchiang County(連江縣) 1        0                              1       0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    33       37        1      2          20      49     1        3

DPP will over-perform in the North Taiwan Province (Taipei City (臺北市) and New Taipei City (新北市)) while the KMT will over-perform in Central Taiwan Province (Taichung City(臺中市), Changhua County(彰化縣)  and Yunlin County(雲林縣)).  In fact if you look at my projection for the North Taiwan Province  one would think the DPP is on their way to a majority while if you at my projection for Central Taiwan Province one would think the KMT will be largest party for sure if not a majority.  The net result is neither will have a majority.


2016 and 2020 will be same in terms of Aborigine seats
Plains Aborigine: KMT 2 DPP 1
Mountain Aborigine : KMT2 NPB 1

PR          KMT  PFP  TPP DPP NPP
2016        11    3           18    2
2020        12    2     5     12    3

So 2016 vs 2020 will be

                                 2016                                                2020
Pan-Blues          KMT 35 PFP 3 NPB 1 = 39         KMT 49 PFP 2 NPB 1 Ind 1= 53
Pan-Greens        DPP 68 NPP 5 Ind 1 = 74          DPP 50 NPP 3 Ind 2         = 55
TPP                                                                 TPP 5

Totally hung.  DPP Tsai will need both NPP and TPP to get anything passed.  Not a easy situation to deal with. Will be just as hard for KMT Han if somehow he won although if KMT Han won then the KMT would have done well enough in the legislative races to be close to majority and for sure a majority with TPP.  Having to rope in BOTH  NPP and TPP is a lot harder than to rope in TPP.

[jaichind]

The only seat I expect the DPP to gain relative to 2016 is Taipei City (臺北市) 4th where the DPP is running maverick Gao (高嘉瑜) who has cross party appeal and close to Ko for a while.  Main danger to her would be the pro-Chen TPAP(Taiwan Action Party Alliance) 一邊一國行動黨 is running a prominent pan-Green doctor and could eat into the DPP vote.  

The KMT will get lucky in a couple of seats where the split of the Pan-Green vote I expect to throw the race to the KMT.  

We have  Taipei City (臺北市) 1st where the DPP incumbent faces a prominent DPP rebel running for the pro-Chen TPAP(Taiwan Action Party Alliance) 一邊一國行動黨 and is likely to lose this seat given the split of the Pan-Green vote.

And we have the open Hsinchu City(新竹市)  at large seat where I expect the KMT to win given the even split between the DPP and surprising powerful NPP candidate

On the flip side in  Taipei City (臺北市) 5th the KMT has a chance re-take the seat from the pro-DPP independent (ex-NPP who was elected in 2016 with DPP support) but TPP running a prominent KMT rebel most likely lead to the KMT falling short.  

In Kaoshiung City (高雄市) 3rd the KMT is most likely to recapture this old pan-Blue seat especially due to a key DPP rebel in the fray.

[jaichind]

My back-of-the-envelope PR vote projection

KMT(中國國民黨)                                                31.5%
DPP(民主進步黨)                                                30.5%
TPP(台灣民眾黨)                                                 12.0%
NPP(時代力量)                                                     7.0%
PFP(親民黨)                                                        5.5%
NP (New Party) (新黨)                                         2.25% (KMT radical unification splinter)
TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進)          2.25% (economic Right radical independence)
SFP (Stabilizing Force Party)(安定力量)                 1.75% (Christian conservative Pan-Blue)
CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟)         1.50% (KMT splinter)
TPAP(Taiwan Action Party Alliance)(一邊一國行動黨)1.50% (pro-Chen Right radical independence)
GP(Green Party) (綠黨)                                       0.75% (Urban progressive pan-Green)
FA((Formosa Alliance)(喜樂島聯盟)                        0.75% (Social conservative radical independence)
TSU(Taiwan Solidarity Union)(台灣團結聯盟)           0.75% (KMT pro-Independence splinter)
IU(Interfaith Union)(宗教聯盟)                              0.50% (pan-Green social conservative)
UP (Unionist Party)(中華統一促進黨)                       0.50% (Right radical unification)
UAA(United Action Alliance) (合一行動聯盟)            0.25% (Christian Right Unification)
TRP(Taiwan Renewal Party)(台灣維新)                   0.25% (Light Green DPP splinter)
SSFPP(台澎黨)                                                    0.25% (radical independence)
LP (Labor Party)(勞動黨)                                      0.25% (radical Left unification)

Which gives us
Pan-Green   44.5%
Pan-Blue     43.5%
TPP             12.0%

Toward the end of the election campaign DPP was able to consolidate the Pan-Green vote toward the DPP.  The main risk to the DPP is the left progressive youth consensus (mostly pro-TPP or pro-NPP voters) is that while they want DPP Tsai over KMT Han they prefer that the DPP does not have a single party majority.  If they vote on these goals then DPP might under-perform on the  PR section losing support to NPP TPP TSP or even perhaps PFP.

[jaichind]

I am pretty sure KMT Han knows he is most likely going to lose tomorrow.  I guess his goal is to keep it close so

a) Any attempt to recall him as mayor of Kaoshiung will be a non-starter
b) He can then run for the KMT Chairperson as Wu would obviously have to resign given the defeat of the KMT in the Prez race

then Han can take over the KMT and run in 2024 when he would feel he have a strong shot at winning.

In many ways this mostly matches my ideal scenario.  I am rooting for a narrow DPP Tsai victory and DPP falling well short of majority in the legislature.  Tsai having to rope in both NPP and TPP to get anything passed would clearly plague her regime.  The  a global economic slowdown will come in the next year or two hitting the export driven ROC economy hard.

Then I can sit back and wait for the mother of all anti-DPP landslides in 2022 ROC local election and the 2024 ROC general election.

[jaichind]

Voting in progress.  Standard rumor based anecdotal from social media seems to indicate high turnout (good for DPP Tsai) but so far it is elderly heavy (good for Han.)

When the count begins understand that other than Public TV which works with the KMT to publish KMT sources (KMT have agents at every counting booth).  All other media starting at 4pm-6pm will look at those numbers AND ADD VOTES on top of that based on sources ranging from unreliable stringers to just made up numbers.  After 6PM the media will most likely converage toward the KMT count which is seen as unofficial but reliable.

Since Tsai is expected to win, IF the initial results from the KMT shows a strong KMT Han showing most media source (especially Pan-Green ones) will just add more votes to DPP Tsai on the logic that a) that is what their viewers want to see and b) most likely the early count is a biased count toward KMT Han so no harm no foul.

Of course after 6PM everyone will converge over time.     

[jaichind]

Live streams

Pan-Blue TVBS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu1FkdAOws0

Pan-Blue CTI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUPPkSANpyo

Pan-Green Formosa News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxJKnDLYZz4

Pan-Green SanLi
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZVUmEUFwaY

[RedPrometheus]

So which districts are usually reporting first? Blue or Green?

[jaichind]

With about 60% of the vote counted it is impressive DPP Tsai landslide

DPP Tsai   56.5%
KMT Han   39.1%
PFP Soong  4.4%

I think the rest of the count will have a slight pro-KMT lean but it will be roughly this.  In the end a lot of the pro-Blue independents did come home to KMT Han and away from PFP Soong but the subaltern surge for Han in rural Central Taiwan Province did not show up.  I guess they are angry at DPP Tsai but accepted the premise that "a vote for KMT Han is a vote for unification with PRC" and voted accordingly.

Also the anti-gay marriage revolt within the DPP based got it out of the system in the 2018 ROC local elections anti-DPP landslide.  This time they choose to teach KMT Han a lesson to no try to jump to Prez after just winning Kaoshiung mayor.

[jaichind]

In legislative races in non-PR section it is

district
DPP                                  46
Pro-DPP independents         4
KMT                                 22
Pro-KMT independents         1

Aborigine
DPP                                   1
KMT                                   4
pro-KMT NPB                      1

PR only around 30% of the vote has been counted so far but it is:

DPP(民主進步黨)                                                35.4%
KMT(中國國民黨)                                                33.1%
TPP(台灣民眾黨)                                                 10.5%
NPP(時代力量)                                                     7.4%
PFP(親民黨)                                                        3.5%
TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進)          3.2% (economic Right radical independence)
GP(Green Party) (綠黨)                                       2.2% (Urban progressive pan-Green)
TPAP(Taiwan Action Party Alliance)(一邊一國行動黨)1.3% (pro-Chen Right radical independence)
NP (New Party) (新黨)                                         0.9% (KMT radical unification splinter)
SFP (Stabilizing Force Party)(安定力量)                  0.6% (Christian conservative Pan-Blue)
TSU(Taiwan Solidarity Union)(台灣團結聯盟)           0.4% (KMT pro-Independence splinter)
CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟)          0.3% (KMT splinter)
UP (Unionist Party)(中華統一促進黨)                       0.5% (Right radical unification)
FA((Formosa Alliance)(喜樂島聯盟)                        0.2% (Social conservative radical independence)
IU(Interfaith Union)(宗教聯盟)                              0.2% (pan-Green social conservative)
UAA(United Action Alliance) (合一行動聯盟)            0.1% (Christian Right Unification)
TRP(Taiwan Renewal Party)(台灣維新)                   0.1% (Light Green DPP splinter)
SSFPP(台澎黨)                                                    0.1% (radical independence)
 
Which will work out to be

DPP   14
KMT   13
TPP     4
NPP     3

So for now it is Pan-Green Camp 68 Pan-Blue camp 41 TPP 4

[jaichind]

On the PR section is around

Pan-Greens  50.5%
Pan-Blues    39.0%
TPP             10.5%

I always said that DPP Tsai vote would be the Pan-Greens plus around 60% of the TPP PR vote which works out to 56.5% which is what she has now.  I was off by 4.5% on the Blue-Green balance. My mental model was correct with incorrect calibration.

[jaichind]

My predicted relative over-performance of KMT Han in Central Taiwan Province never appeared.  The various county leans seems to revert more to a 2000-2016 pattern than a 2018 ROC local election pattern. So the 2018 ROC local election was the anti-DPP revolt over Gay marriage and 2020 is a swing back to the 2000-2016 norm.  Still the trends are still toward a model where the North is becoming more pan-Green while Central Taiwan Province is becoming more Pan-Blue.  It is that in 2020 that hyper jump did not take place.   KMT Han would have been the person to trigger it but the PRC issue looms too large for now.