Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)
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Author Topic: Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)  (Read 143608 times)
GALeftist
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« Reply #750 on: August 03, 2021, 07:04:44 PM »
If indeed Brown does win by a large margin like this, it will have been an incredibly large miss for polling (for the umpteenth time in a row)
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #751 on: August 03, 2021, 07:05:08 PM »
Quote from: GALeftist on August 03, 2021, 07:04:44 PM
If indeed Brown does win by a large margin like this, it will have been an incredibly large miss for polling (for the umpteenth time in a row)

To be fair, primary polling has always been less reliable than general election polling.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #752 on: August 03, 2021, 07:06:35 PM »
Quote from: Adam Griffin on August 03, 2021, 07:03:13 PM
NYT showing an extra 7,500 votes all of a sudden out of Cuyahoga I'm not seeing on the election board websites, with Turner winning those 53-47.

Now 53-40 Brown overall (if accurate).

EDIT: WaPo showing them too.

I see it on the Ohio SoS page now, as well.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #753 on: August 03, 2021, 07:07:35 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on August 03, 2021, 07:05:08 PM
Quote from: GALeftist on August 03, 2021, 07:04:44 PM
If indeed Brown does win by a large margin like this, it will have been an incredibly large miss for polling (for the umpteenth time in a row)

To be fair, primary polling has always been less reliable than general election polling.

Also we haven't actually had any polling in 2.5 weeks.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #754 on: August 03, 2021, 07:08:28 PM »
^^^ I imagine those are in-person early votes (just guessing, based on size and margin). That would again line up perfectly with Summit: Brown winning mail vote by 20 in both counties while Turner wins early in-person by 6-7 in both counties. Should still be a few thousand more early votes left in Cuyahoga.

Now we just need to see what happened on Election Day...should be a much younger audience and therefore more favorable to Turner (minus any late-breaking trends).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #755 on: August 03, 2021, 07:09:06 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on August 03, 2021, 07:07:35 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on August 03, 2021, 07:05:08 PM
Quote from: GALeftist on August 03, 2021, 07:04:44 PM
If indeed Brown does win by a large margin like this, it will have been an incredibly large miss for polling (for the umpteenth time in a row)

To be fair, primary polling has always been less reliable than general election polling.

Also we haven't actually had any polling in 2.5 weeks.

yeah cant really blame any polling on this. all we got are internal polls and even those are old
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #756 on: August 03, 2021, 07:10:28 PM »
tomorrow's headlines "dumb gadfly defeats dumb gadfly"
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THG
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« Reply #757 on: August 03, 2021, 07:10:34 PM »
Turner may actually lose!

Hopefully she does.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #758 on: August 03, 2021, 07:13:06 PM »
Apparently Turner's internals had her losing this weekend? But this WaPo reporter waited until now to say so? The tweet isn't really clear.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #759 on: August 03, 2021, 07:13:26 PM »
Summit dumped about 120 ED votes: Brown 62-49 (virtually identical margin to previous vote).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #760 on: August 03, 2021, 07:14:06 PM »
Quote from: Adam Griffin on August 03, 2021, 07:13:26 PM
Summit dumped about 120 ED votes: Brown 62-49 (virtually identical margin to previous vote).

Interesting that Brown did so well with the election day votes.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #761 on: August 03, 2021, 07:18:20 PM »
380 ED votes from Summit now: Turner leads 190-169 (50-44%).
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #762 on: August 03, 2021, 07:19:01 PM »
Quote from: Adam Griffin on August 03, 2021, 07:18:20 PM
380 ED votes from Summit now: Turner leads 190-169 (50-44%).

I don't think that's going to cut it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #763 on: August 03, 2021, 07:19:49 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2021, 07:14:06 PM
Quote from: Adam Griffin on August 03, 2021, 07:13:26 PM
Summit dumped about 120 ED votes: Brown 62-49 (virtually identical margin to previous vote).

Interesting that Brown did so well with the election day votes.

Now it's up to 190-169 Turner with 10 precincts Eday counted.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #764 on: August 03, 2021, 07:19:56 PM »
How many total votes are we expecting from Summit?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #765 on: August 03, 2021, 07:20:14 PM »
Wow…
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #766 on: August 03, 2021, 07:22:25 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2021, 07:19:56 PM
How many total votes are we expecting from Summit?

Originally I was thinking 7-10k based on its share of the CD (VAP). However, based on RVs (72k) and if it has a comparable turnout to Cuyahoga (17%), it could be as high as 15k (Ds & Rs combined, though Ds seem to be >90% of vote). Right now around 2,500 votes have been counted.
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Holmes
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« Reply #767 on: August 03, 2021, 07:23:57 PM »
Not the anti-trans microagression lady. 😭
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #768 on: August 03, 2021, 07:24:50 PM »
Just posting here to keep a running tally whenever another dump arrives:
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #769 on: August 03, 2021, 07:25:11 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on August 03, 2021, 07:23:57 PM
Not the anti-trans microagression lady. 😭

She's not anti-trans. Stop being ridiculous.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #770 on: August 03, 2021, 07:26:46 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2021, 07:30:49 PM by GALeftist »
Yeah, Turner's gonna need to do better in ED votes than those Summit dumps
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Holmes
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« Reply #771 on: August 03, 2021, 07:27:09 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2021, 07:25:11 PM
Quote from: Holmes on August 03, 2021, 07:23:57 PM
Not the anti-trans microagression lady. 😭

She's not anti-trans. Stop being ridiculous.

Sis, there are receipts, it’s on video, microagressions were committed. Even with muh apology, she still went to an LGBT forum and committed them.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #772 on: August 03, 2021, 07:27:49 PM »
Right now Turner would need ~54% of what likely remains overall.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #773 on: August 03, 2021, 07:28:11 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on August 03, 2021, 07:27:09 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2021, 07:25:11 PM
Quote from: Holmes on August 03, 2021, 07:23:57 PM
Not the anti-trans microagression lady. 😭

She's not anti-trans. Stop being ridiculous.

Sis, there are receipts, it’s on video, microagressions were committed. Even with muh apology, she still went to an LGBT forum and committed them.

We saw the video. It was not "anti trans". It was a simple mistake.
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« Reply #774 on: August 03, 2021, 07:30:08 PM »
OH-11 is straight-up attacking a black woman! Damn!
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