Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

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Hey if anyone wants a good laugh you should all check out James Jerome Bell's Ballotpedia page!

Olawakandi-level wisdom oozing out!

Image Link

What it says for those who can't read it:

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "First and foremost I would like to give all praise to the most high God is Sovereign of the universe Jehovah God I am from the mean tough streets of Cleveland Ohio having excelled with a lot of my people have failed I believe that I can be at Illuminator to the not only the 11th District, my community ,America, but the world as a whole I believe that with my experiences in life Community, employment entrepreneurship, education and the resolve to make life better for mankind. That I have the wherewithal and also The Human Experience to truly I say to you today make my mark in American society with the opportunity to serve my fellow man through honesty integrity and Truth.The world will be much better for my leadership and my commitment to Excellence. As I Forge a new America that will be a utopian society and what's peace and Harmony is to dwell."

Key messages:

• Utopian peace and Harmony!!!
• Saving our planet and natural resources!!!
• Common sense Gun control!!!

   

I said this on another thread, but if I lived in Cleveland I'd vote for this guy just because of pure comedic value

And on his Facebook:

As a black man in America I can see the tremendous blessing of being born in the mean, rough streets of Cleveland Ohio where I had to be Clever, smart and industrious.Bold enough to dream big. Although I have had my contemptuous moments I have risen , achieved and ascended to Heights surpassed by mere drive and God's will. I want to thank my mother Belle Lettres AKA Madelynne Alfreda Bell for her love, wisdom and support during my journey. There are so Many of my life experiences from Sports, the Arts, military and civilian achievements, but I have to take this time to thank my 9th grade teacher Joyce Petty at Harry Davis Junior High School in Cleveland's Glenville neighborhood. Miss Petty influence on my young wife was it has been very impactful!!

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I think I'm more annoyed by the constant "I hate both the candidates~~~!!!!!!" people in here. False equivalency is just the worst. Stop it.

You don't have to think both candidates are exactly the same to be annoyed by both of them.

I think both candidates are trash. Hopefully somebody else takes the win.

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From James Jerome Bell's Facebook:

Having been born June 1966 in the midst of the Hough riots when myself and my cousin FANNIE Lewis grandson and my godmother and Carl Stokes work quelling the Hough area from bombardment of three days of looting and gunfire excetera excetera moving forward to a life of excellence and achievement, along with the pitfalls of just being a black man I have survived I have thrived and I have struggle so I know the difference between being hungry and being full like the Apostle Paul said in all things self-sufficiency I will be your next Congressman to lead them to a better life first reparations II Universal basic income environmental sustainability With God all things are possible.

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PredictIt? Gurrrrrrrrrl!

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OH-11 is straight-up attacking a black woman! Damn!

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OH-11 saw Nina Turner and thought "Gurrrrl!"

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https://twitter.com/berniesanders/status/1424067468750954499?s=21
Really irresponsible tweet from Bernie

Really based tweet coming from Bernie IMO

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The ride never ends!

https://twitter.com/TaylorPopielarz/status/1424899617846595590

FL-20's new Congressperson, everybody

We here in FL-20 will reject Turner even harder than OH-11!

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Is the race there attracting much, if any, attention in your local view?

Campaign signs and billboards are up for different people on every street

Political signs that you don't read are just part of life here and I'll be honest I largely have forgotten about this race as have the majority of others (maybe? It's not like these are conversation topics lol)
I honestly think it'll come down to name recognition as from previous experience the candidate's name who I see on the signs the most usually ends up winning.

I presumed DuBose would be the natural frontrunner.

DuBose, or as the average resident of FL-20 knows him, "Who?"
TBH he has a really good chance of winning though

Experience is valued here

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The Democratic primary in my district FL-20 is occurring today*

I'd actually forgotten about it until passing the elementary school next to my neighborhood and seeing an obscene amount of campaign signs.

Hopefully someone good wins (not that I know any of the candidates lol)


* The other primary is to find out who'll be second place

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LEAKED RESULTS!!!

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My district seems to have an especially close race between Holness and Cherfilus-McCormick. Both at 24% of the vote

Holness is more popular in Broward which he mayored for many years

McCormick in Palm Beach

I'll give McCormick that she's a very intense Campaigner

Her signs go up every two years, are literally everywhere, and her work seems to be paying off...

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Holness leads McCormick by 78 votes with 99% reporting!

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With this kind of margin, I'm 100% convinced that the main reason for a hypothetical McCormick victory would be the sign spam she issued...

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Grifters gon grift

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McCormick is likely going to be in office for a long time. Possibly as long as Hastings...
Sad to see the grift succeed... Especially when the truth about WAYNE was being suppressed

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.
Posting here to remind myself later.

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McCormick is likely going to be in office for a long time. Possibly as long as Hastings...
Sad to see the grift succeed... Especially when the truth about WAYNE was being suppressed

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.
Posting here to remind myself later.

Given the splintering of the field is she at all vulnerable in a future primary?

It'd take a lot of things to happen IMO
The incumbency advantage is very strong

But there are certain circumstances where she could be vulnerable.
For instance it's possible she turns into a backbencher and decides not to campaign against an insurgent candidate with high name recognition (who doesn't have their lane splintered) in a manner similar to Nelson 2018.
Perhaps the insurgent could even beat her if she does put up a fight and if she campaigns on the wrong issues.
Or perhaps there's a convergence where a very popular candidate from the Black part of Palm Beach siphons a lot of votes from her (that was her base) while a Broward candidate just does modestly well.

The way she literally bought herself a seat (after trying again and again for many years) was insane though, with these kinds of stacks that has a lower chance of happening IMO

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Didn't Cherfilus-McCormick mount multiple primary challenges against Hastings during his final years?

Yes, she did! And it's crazy because she hasn't even improved on her vote totals from previously, but just benefited from the non-grifter vote being split seventeen ways.

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Didn't Cherfilus-McCormick mount multiple primary challenges against Hastings during his final years?

Yes, she did! And it's crazy because she hasn't even improved on her vote totals from previously, but just benefited from the non-grifter vote being split seventeen ways.

Well, now that she will be the incumbent, she'll become entrenched, assuming she doesn't act foolish, and will have an easier time going forward.

Yep, this is exactly why I find it disappointing.

You win some, you lose some though

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Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.

Didn't have to:

Image Link

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Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.

Didn't have to:

Image Link

Nice maps - I assume Holness must've done quite poorly in Palm Beach.

It also highlights that FL-20 is about as discontiguous as you could make a district with it still being contiguous.

As I recall, much of FL-20's territory is either uninhabited or very low populated.

Yeah, the Western half of Broward and much of the Western half of Palm Beach County are nature preserves.

The Northwestern part of Palm Beach (near Lake Okeechobee) is actually very blue though and has large Black and Mexican populations. It's an agricultural area.

Anyway today's election day what do you all think the margin will end up as?

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Is Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick a squad member or does she just have very similar policy positions?

Nah, she won't join the squad. Just is moderately progressive.
If our district got a whiff of that Holness (who's already running) would be able to steamroll her in August.

AOC's favorability rating in this district is only 5% higher than it is nationwide (even though Democrats win this district 80-20)