UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[If my soul was made of stone]

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1584563803957534720?s=20&t=gqfkzBOxI...

first as tragedy (please clap) then as farce

[MillennialModerate]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

[Blair]

You doom if you want, the Lady is not for dooming.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Very refreshing that the Brits will now have to suffer under the governance of an evil Indian man. How the turn tables.

Sunak also became the first Indian PM on Diwali which makes it even better

[Mike88]

Interesting that, if nothing changes until then, in December 2022, the 3 European countries using Greenwich Mean Time, UK, Ireland and Portugal, will all be led by PMs with Indian ancestry.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

Oh no, not 340-350 seats! I think everyone in Labour would bite your hand off for a guaranteed majority of 30+ right now.

[Torrain]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720

[afleitch]

Quite an odd question to 'map' out, rather than voting intention.

[Torrain]

One last record breaking poll for Liz on the way out:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1584589002429976576
This puts her lower than Bob Taft, right?

[Torrain]

Quite an odd question to 'map' out, rather than voting intention.

Yeah - it’s an odd one, for sure. Doesn’t really reflect the multi-party system all that well (especially given the results in Scotland) - although I guess it’s potentially an interesting tool to explore potential Lib-Lab tactical voting in England and potentially Wales.

I guess they’re just getting a snapshot now, so they can compare it with the situation in a year or two.

[MABA 2020]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

He'll get a honeymoon bounce I'm sure, but with all the economic problems facing the country and the party still fairly divided, I still think we'll be looking at something closer to 400 seats for Labour.

[John Dule]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720

To be fair, isn't this including a lot of constituencies that will vote SNP or for some other third party?

[Storr]

The Sunak Never Sets

[Torrain]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720

To be fair, isn't this including a lot of constituencies that will vote SNP or for some other third party?

Yeah - this poll is an over-simplification, as I was replying to Afleitch earlier. The point I was very vaguely trying to make, was that Sunak starts off in a rather weak position, and UK PMs tend to decline in popularity, as they are forced into tough decisions (and the next 6-12 months will be full of those).

Labour may not even win 75-80% of those seats, but if the voters there trust Starmer, tactical voting will be incentivised. Should have included that disclaimer.

[Sestak]

The Sunak Never Sets

At least wait until he lasts a few months before making that claim.


On another note, has there been any indication yet as to who's going to be in Cabinet?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov's structural difficulties with getting good samples from voters with lower educational attainment accidentally shows up there lol.

[Storr]

The Sunak Never Sets

At least wait until he lasts a few months before making that claim.


On another note, has there been any indication yet as to who's going to be in Cabinet?

That's where I found the humor...because the Conservative party is anything but stable and strong at the moment.

[afleitch]

There will also, undoubtedly, be 'sectarian' voting in various directions in some measure even during a Tory defeat, if Sunak is still leader. Any model will need to drill down with specific polling.

[Хahar 🤔]

There will also, undoubtedly, be 'sectarian' voting in various directions in some measure even during a Tory defeat, if Sunak is still leader. Any model will need to drill down with specific polling.

Con gain Leicester East

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pomDeter/status/1584583987745652739

[brucejoel99]

Timetable tomorrow (BST):

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1584600218011435009

[Estrella]

This thread now has nearly twice as many pages as there were are days in the Truss premiership.

[Lechasseur]

I see a lot of people on here have nicknamed the King "Brian". I get it's a joke of some sort, but I don't understand the joke.

[Sestak]

I see a lot of people on here have nicknamed the King "Brian". I get it's a joke of some sort, but I don't understand the joke.

It’s the name he was given in Private Eye satire. Iirc this is where “Brenda” for Elizabeth II came from as well.

[TheTide]

I see a lot of people on here have nicknamed the King "Brian". I get it's a joke of some sort, but I don't understand the joke.

It’s the name he was given in Private Eye satire. Iirc this is where “Brenda” for Elizabeth II came from as well.

The idea is that these are not exactly posh sounding names.