2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[charcuterie]

Bullock leading by 1.5% in exit polling

We'll see...

[charcuterie]

I'm still feeling that Biden will win AZ, WI, MI, and probably NE-2 and PA, but I'm feeling very down about the Senate.

[charcuterie]

VA called for Biden.

Can Biden snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

He still needs PA and WI.

Technically only needs one of PA/WI with MI+AZ+NE-2.

[charcuterie]

Hows Michigan looking?

Most of Michigan's vote in so far is in-person election day votes. I expect it to tighten/flip as absentee ballots come in.

[charcuterie]

https://twitter.com/peytonyager/status/1323860509561626626?s=19
OK-5 has flipped.

(

[charcuterie]

NBC reporting their models show a 2% Biden win in WI once the early vote is in.

Wow, that's...really underwhelming.

[charcuterie]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

Looks like he's up by about ~6% right now with ~50%, so not safe but looking okay for now.

[charcuterie]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

Biden is "only" up by 5% in Nevada and 7% in Maine, less than the margins which had been anticipated. Arizona is looking good for Biden, but it could very well be his only flip at this point. Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio are already gone for him.

Not true Some networks have called NE-2 for him already.

[charcuterie]

If Biden’s lead of 8 holds in MN, it’s hard to see him losing the Rust Belt trio.

True, I would be shocked at such a difference between them. I suppose, given this crazy election, it's possible though.

[charcuterie]

What Trump is doing... this is not good for the country.

The fact that he even has a platform to say such things is a sign that the US is a flawed democracy in decay.

[charcuterie]

I swear if the Supreme Court does what Trump says, we will have civil unrest.

You don't have to swear or guess; it's a forgone conclusion if such an event occurs, sadly.

[charcuterie]

Anyone know if Gideon still has a chance? Looking at the numbers on NYT and Decision Desk, it looks possible although unlikely.

The NYT has Georgia as tilt Biden. We'll have to see what direction it tends to later this morning.

[charcuterie]

If Georgia goes to Biden, then WI gets Biden to 272.

Exactly 270. Biden can win with most combinations of 2 of WI, GA, MI, NC, and PA.

This is assuming AZ goes Biden, right?

Az was already called for Biden

Only by Fox News, right?

[charcuterie]

So... I've just listened to Trump.

Americans... what have you done..

We messed up. We messed up bad.

We messed up badly time after time again leading to this point. It's been a long journey on this road, but now we're facing the music. America chose to follow the path that lead us to this moment.

[charcuterie]

Pardon my french but, what the f*** is the hold up? Let's get a move on already it's 1 PM the following day with almost a complete stall since 3 AM last night.

I agree. It's good that WI is almost done, but I was really expecting GA to have updates by now!

[charcuterie]

I really hope Peters is able to pull this one out Feeling good about Biden in MI though

[charcuterie]

Scott Walker says a recount isn't necessary.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scott-walker-suggests-biden-s-wisconsin-lead-too-big-for-recount/ar-BB1aGYLa?ocid=Peregrine

I dislike Scott Walker strongly but I can't deny he knows Wisconsin (especially considering he almost survived a Trump midterm there). Let Trump have his recount though, it won't change the results at this point.

[charcuterie]

Who is ticket splitting for Collins still??

The weird thing is that it's ticket splitting specifically for Collins. Both Golden and Pingree seem to be fine.

Well, since Trump is leading in ME-2, it looks like Golden is the beneficiary of ticket-splitting in that CD.

[charcuterie]

When are we getting a call for Michigan? Looks like that one's a done deal.

I'm guessing the calls will start rolling in within the next few hours.

[charcuterie]

They would have been rejected ballots so not included in ballots to be counted which is where the 200K figure represented.

Possible complications in GA:

https://twitter.com/GilForGeorgia/status/1324018963999821824?s=20

Are these included in the "outstanding vote to count" stats or are they in addition to it?  The former and Trump wins, the latter and Biden is almost a sure thing.  

I think your signature goes on the outside of the envelope, so I think those ballots would have been rejected before getting sorted and prepped for counting.

That's some pretty good news out of GA then, hopefully people realize that they have to go and fix their ballots.

[charcuterie]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

Compared to expectations going into yesterday, absolutely. Not underwhelming in the sense it would be if it were sub-300, but still not that great compared to what most thought.

[charcuterie]

I ran an analysis of the oustanding PA ballots. If they go 80% Biden (which is actually below the support rates he's been receivng in most counties), he's on track to win PA by about 200K or about 51-48%. Actually will be the to the left of MI and WI.

PA looking good for Biden - honestly it might not even end up that close.

If that were the case, PA loses tipping point status to likely either AZ, WI, or GA.

[charcuterie]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

[charcuterie]

Biden earlier today said "only three times in our country has an incumbent election been defeated, this would be the fourth."

He mis-spoke, it's actually 3 times in the last century.  The losers are:
George H.W. Bush
Jimmy Carter
Herbert Hoover
William Howard Taft
Grover Cleveland
Martin van Buren
John Quincy Adams
John Adams

Really?? That's it?? That's really shocking to me, I would've expected more cases.

[charcuterie]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324353932022480896?s=19

Tweets like this are going to get innocent people killed. Someone needs to take away his phone before he causes a violent attack from his supporters.