2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alcibiades]

I think it’s safe to say it’s well and truly over for Trump in WI and MI.

Then it's ball game. Biden wins.

As long as he hangs on in NV and AZ.

[kwabbit]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

Didn't Bush actually win Tejanos? Like Hillary was obviously uniquely strong with Latinos, but this isn't 2004 all over again.

Idk if he won them but he did a hint better than Trump in the Rio Grande Valley. Bush was governor of Texas though, so Trump might've done better in a relative sense.

[It’s so Joever]

Couldn't be prouder of my state. We've rejected this disaster of a President and ironically will kick him out with a similar to margin to his in 2016.

With WI and MI going for Biden, it's lights out for Trump.

I am also proud of my state. Not because we were important, but because we kicked out Cory and swung HEAVILY against Trump.

[7,052,770]

Any chance Biden can pull Ossoff over 50? I'm guessing no?

[Kuumo]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

I think in the long-term, Hispanics will mirror the journey of Irish- and Italian-Americans, i.e. they will come to be seen as white, and accordingly vote in line with the white average.

Honestly, in 2044 when the U.S. is projected to be majority-minority by today's standards, "white" might basically be a synonym for non-black. Black voters are the only racial minority that, due to their unique history, seem like they will never really be assimilated into the white population. All of the immigrant groups are initially seen as non-white and subjected to discrimination but basically become just another "white" ethnicity a couple of generations after they first come to the U.S.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Couldn't be prouder of my state. We've rejected this disaster of a President and ironically will kick him out with a similar to margin to his in 2016.

With WI and MI going for Biden, it's lights out for Trump.

I wonder what that feels like.

Just be proud of your county. But ashamed of your metro area.

Seriously though, it's crazy that Democrats can lose Florida while winning Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole.

[Crumpets]

From Annie Karni:

"Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement that Trump 'is well within the threshold to request a recount' in Wisconsin, and that the campaign planned to 'immediately do so.'"

[wbrocks67]

Couldn't be prouder of my state. We've rejected this disaster of a President and ironically will kick him out with a similar to margin to his in 2016.

With WI and MI going for Biden, it's lights out for Trump.

I am also proud of my state. Not because we were important, but because we kicked out Cory and swung HEAVILY against Trump.

Yeah, CO is a major bright spot. Biden +14 is even above the polling average.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1324047009955930120?s=19

[ultraviolet]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1324046305753260035?s=19

Good luck overturning a 20k vote margin.

Lol yeah Trump won MI by 11,000 in 2016 and nothing happened there

[DrScholl]

Any chance Biden can pull Ossoff over 50? I'm guessing no?

Not likely, but Perdue could go under 50% and trigger the runoff.

[lfromnj]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

How about we stop promoting baseless conspiracy theories.

IIRC there is some infamous ballot harvesting and similar stuff with the Cubans in MD county but that wasn't the main factor. Might have cost Ds a house seat though.

[Hope For A New Era]

I have to wonder about the appearance of Biden momentum in Florida. Was it fake? Or was Biden on track to lose Florida by even more, and narrowed it at the last minute?

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1324046305753260035?s=19

He's still going to lose.

[emailking]

Now 4 of Trump's tweets from today are hidden behind a warning.

[Crumpets]

I wonder if Jill Stein will help back Trump's efforts for a recount in Wisconsin.

[lfromnj]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

Didn't Bush actually win Tejanos? Like Hillary was obviously uniquely strong with Latinos, but this isn't 2004 all over again.

Idk if he won them but he did a hint better than Trump in the Rio Grande Valley. Bush was governor of Texas though, so Trump might've done better in a relative sense.

Yes Bush did overall better in the RGV due to the 3 bigger counties trending D from 2004(cameron/webb/Hidalgo) in the rest of the RGV Trump did better than Bush.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

Lol

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Scott Walker says a recount isn't necessary.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scott-walker-suggests-biden-s-wisconsin-lead-too-big-for-recount/ar-BB1aGYLa?ocid=Peregrine

[Suburbia]

Other than Trump, John James and Tim Scott are the two Republicans that piss me off the most. I really hope he loses so that it doesn't encourage that.

Why? Because they are not Black progressives?

Face it, Black people are not monolithic.

You have to earn votes.

[MillennialModerate]

Any chance Biden can pull Ossoff over 50? I'm guessing no?

Biden has almost no chance of Georgia no matter how many times I get ignored or called a troll.

With that being said even if there was a slim chance, for him to bring Osoff over 50 the final 380k votes would have to literally be in the ballpark of 95% Dem

[wbrocks67]

Trump down to +84K in GA from +87K

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

[Suburbia]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

I think in the long-term, Hispanics will mirror the journey of Irish- and Italian-Americans, i.e. they will come to be seen as white, and accordingly vote in line with the white average.

Honestly, in 2044 when the U.S. is projected to be majority-minority by today's standards, "white" might basically be a synonym for non-black. Black voters are the only racial minority that, due to their unique history, seem like they will never really be assimilated into the white population. All of the immigrant groups are initially seen as non-white and subjected to discrimination but basically become just another "white" ethnicity a couple of generations after they first come to the U.S.

I suppose so.