Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

There needs to be some weighting of the EU vote by economic size, and to get rid of unanimous consent. It is one thing for something to go down if Germany or France opposes it, another for Poland to do so, and ludicrous when you have a place as far down the economic food chain as Hungary nixing something. Next thing you know it will be Andorra.

This "food chain" line of thinking is exactly why smaller countries wouldn't want to abolish the veto. It's essentially the same argument as for abolishing the U.S. Senate or redistributing its seats according to population. The EU isn't just supposed to represent 450 million people; the 27 Member States represent the peoples of these states and the European Council - although often overlooked publicly - is the most powerful institution for a reason (although the Commission has quite boldly taken the lead when it comes to Ukraine and, I have to say, hasn't done it in a bad way).

Regardless of all of this, Germany has been the primary nuisance in forming a unified block to support Ukraine. But they are powerful enough to block things before they are on the table and thereby avoid Hungary's optics issue.

Oh, I fully understand that the smaller fry would not like it. However, Malta vetoing something would be akin to the Senator from Wyoming vetoing something. If one had a system where either a two thirds vote of the member states weighted by GDP or two thirds of the member states, with each state having one vote, could veto something, or pass something, that would make more sense.

[Lord Halifax]

There needs to be some weighting of the EU vote by economic size, and to get rid of unanimous consent. It is one thing for something to go down if Germany or France opposes it, another for Poland to do so, and ludicrous when you have a place as far down the economic food chain as Hungary nixing something. Next thing you know it will be Andorra.

This "food chain" line of thinking is exactly why smaller countries wouldn't want to abolish the veto. It's essentially the same argument as for abolishing the U.S. Senate or redistributing its seats according to population. The EU isn't just supposed to represent 450 million people; the 27 Member States represent the peoples of these states and the European Council - although often overlooked publicly - is the most powerful institution for a reason (although the Commission has quite boldly taken the lead when it comes to Ukraine and, I have to say, hasn't done it in a bad way).

Regardless of all of this, Germany has been the primary nuisance in forming a unified block to support Ukraine. But they are powerful enough to block things before they are on the table and thereby avoid Hungary's optics issue.

Oh, I fully understand that the smaller fry would not like it. However, Malta vetoing something would be akin to the Senator from Wyoming vetoing something. If one had a system where either a two thirds vote of the member states weighted by GDP or two thirds of the member states, with each state having one vote, could veto something, or pass something, that would make more sense.

You can't really have an international organization working like that, it's after sovereign countries representing different peoples.

[DavidB.]

Oh, I fully understand that the smaller fry would not like it. However, Malta vetoing something would be akin to the Senator from Wyoming vetoing something. If one had a system where either a two thirds vote of the member states weighted by GDP or two thirds of the member states, with each state having one vote, could veto something, or pass something, that would make more sense.

Most issues (about 80%) are already decided by QMV (qualified majority voting): 55% of the member states representing 65% of the population, and at least four countries have to vote no to block something. Only some extremely sensitive areas - mostly regarding foreign policy, defense, EU enlargement, taxation and finances - require unanimity. Giving up a veto on that would essentially be akin to ceding to be sovereign countries.

[NOVA Green]

Large majority of Russians oppose the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Moscow-based Levada Center, found that while three-quarters of Russians continue to support the war in Ukraine, 69 percent of respondents believe the use of nuclear weapons would never be justified and 23 percent said it would be justified only if the other side employed nuclear weapons first.

Only 3 percent said they would support the use of nuclear weapons under the current circumstances. Conducted between Nov. 24 and 29, the survey drew from a representative sample of 1,601 people 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions, the Levada Center said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/16/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[NOVA Green]

Good read about Putin's Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.

Long article and limited quotes... just the tip of the iceberg. Might be worth using up a monthly free view for those without subscriptions.

At the start of the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin ordered Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov to occupy Kyiv’s government quarters and assassinate the Ukrainian president, Ukrainian intelligence and security officials allege.

When Mr. Putin needed more soldiers on fast-crumbling front lines, the warlord rounded up thousands of men, sometimes forcibly, and sent them in, according to Chechen residents.

Now, following successive Russian retreats, Mr. Kadyrov’s men are disciplining dejected Russian troops at the front and rooting out alleged spies in occupied Ukrainian territories—sometimes resorting to torture, Ukrainian officials and human-rights organizations say.

Mr. Putin has tapped Russia’s vast budget over decades to prop up Mr. Kadyrov, according to documents and interviews with Ukrainian officials and people close to the Kremlin. Now, the 46-year-old Chechen warlord is straining to deliver on the Russian leader’s critical wartime demands.

The Chechen leader has a rare direct line to Mr. Putin, with the president contacting Mr. Kadyrov personally rather than through aides as with Russia’s other governors, according to a former Kremlin official and another person close to the Kremlin.

Political analysts say Mr. Kadyrov is trying to undermine others with whom he is now competing for Kremlin cash. He has become a leading critic of the Russian Defense Ministry, blaming at least one general publicly by name for battlefield failures—something that could subject the average Russian citizen to years in prison.

The U.S. Treasury Department said, in announcing its latest round of sanctions, that “Kadyrov has amassed extreme wealth as a result of his close relationship to Vladimir Putin,” noting that he owns “a home in the United Arab Emirates, a private zoo, expensive private vehicles, and a lavish slush fund.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chechen-warlord-kadyrov-putin-dirty-work-ukraine-11671204557?mod=hp_lead_pos7

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/LianaFix/status/1603814723182641191

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html

Yes, the decision to go in was a one man Putin show, surprising not only his troops on the ground, but most everyone in the Kremlin as well, and yes, Putin was surprised that Ukraine has proven to be a tougher nut to crack than expected (e.g., the Russian troop column out of Belarus was supposed to arrive in Kyiv at 3 pm on the very day of the invasion), but he’s staying the course in his chase for the white whale, no matter what. The planet is not capacious enough for both Putin and Ukraine to long exist in it at the same time.

During a meeting in March with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett of Israel, Mr. Putin admitted that the Ukrainians were tougher “than I was told,” according to two people familiar with the exchange. “This will probably be much more difficult than we thought. But the war is on their territory, not ours. We are a big country and we have patience.”

People who know Mr. Putin say he is ready to sacrifice untold lives and treasure for as long as it takes, and in a rare face-to-face meeting with the Americans last month the Russians wanted to deliver a stark message to President Biden: No matter how many Russian soldiers are killed or wounded on the battlefield, Russia will not give up.

One NATO member is warning allies that Mr. Putin is ready to accept the deaths or injuries of as many as 300,000 Russian troops — roughly three times his estimated losses so far.

And one other bit. Yes, Zelinsky took the American warnings that Putin was going for it seriously, and Ukraine moved the brains of its military operation to new venues.

So, Ukraine shuffled the deck. It moved some of its defenses — like Buk and S-300 missile launchers, along with its primary radio intelligence command and control center — to new sites before the war began, senior Ukrainian officials said. Russian missiles often hit the old locations instead. In all, as many as 60 percent of Russian cruise missiles missed their intended targets, American officials said.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html

Yes, the decision to go in was a one man Putin show, surprising not only his troops on the ground, but most everyone in the Kremlin as well, and yes, Putin was surprised that Ukraine has proven to be a tougher nut to crack than expected (e.g., the Russian troop column out of Belarus was supposed to arrive in Kyiv at 3 pm on the very day of the invasion), but he’s staying the course in his chase for the white whale, no matter what. The planet is not capacious enough for both Putin and Ukraine to long exist in it at the same time.

During a meeting in March with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett of Israel, Mr. Putin admitted that the Ukrainians were tougher “than I was told,” according to two people familiar with the exchange. “This will probably be much more difficult than we thought. But the war is on their territory, not ours. We are a big country and we have patience.”

People who know Mr. Putin say he is ready to sacrifice untold lives and treasure for as long as it takes, and in a rare face-to-face meeting with the Americans last month the Russians wanted to deliver a stark message to President Biden: No matter how many Russian soldiers are killed or wounded on the battlefield, Russia will not give up.

One NATO member is warning allies that Mr. Putin is ready to accept the deaths or injuries of as many as 300,000 Russian troops — roughly three times his estimated losses so far.

And one other bit. Yes, Zelinsky took the American warnings that Putin was going for it seriously, and Ukraine moved the brains of its military operation to new venues.

So, Ukraine shuffled the deck. It moved some of its defenses — like Buk and S-300 missile launchers, along with its primary radio intelligence command and control center — to new sites before the war began, senior Ukrainian officials said. Russian missiles often hit the old locations instead. In all, as many as 60 percent of Russian cruise missiles missed their intended targets, American officials said.

So can everyone calling on Ukraine to negotiate F off now? Putin has no interest in it so there is no point

[lfromnj]

Large majority of Russians oppose the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Moscow-based Levada Center, found that while three-quarters of Russians continue to support the war in Ukraine, 69 percent of respondents believe the use of nuclear weapons would never be justified and 23 percent said it would be justified only if the other side employed nuclear weapons first.

Only 3 percent said they would support the use of nuclear weapons under the current circumstances. Conducted between Nov. 24 and 29, the survey drew from a representative sample of 1,601 people 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions, the Levada Center said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/16/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Probably a sign showing the threats are mostly just bluffs. The propaganda machine would  at least have converted the hardcore supporters to nuclear weapon usage support by now.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html

If anyone is saving up their nyt free articles, I highly reccomend a full read of this. Its very long and interesting.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1604124392690163724?s=20&t=qDbKcmTQ...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1604055947722125312?s=20&t=vMY6lLI4...

[lfromnj]

American officials said they found out, but kept the information from the Ukrainians, worried they would strike. Killing General Gerasimov could sharply escalate the conflict, officials said, and while the Americans were committed to helping Ukraine, they didn’t want to set off a war between the United States and Russia.

The Ukrainians learned of the general’s plans anyway, putting the Americans in a bind. After checking with the White House, senior American officials asked the Ukrainians to call off the attack.

“We told them not to do it,” a senior American official said. “We were like, ‘Hey, that’s too much.’”

From the above NYT article . US officials tried to intervene to prevent a frontline assassination.

In Mr. Nuzhin’s case, we did not publish our interview with him, but he also spoke to Ukrainian media, which broadcast portions of his account. Soon after, he was released in a prisoner swap — and ended up back in the hands of Wagner.

He then appeared in a video on a pro-Russian Telegram account. In it, Mr. Nuzhin’s head was taped to a block. Looming over him was a man in camouflage, holding a sledgehammer.

“I woke up in this basement, where I was told that I will be judged,” Mr. Nuzhin says in the video, his voice dry and gravelly. The sledgehammer then swings down and crushes his skull.

Shortly after, Mr. Prigozhin released a statement endorsing Mr. Nuzhin’s murder.

“Nuzhin betrayed his people, betrayed his comrades, betrayed them consciously,” the statement said. “He planned his escape. Nuzhin is a traitor.”

A day later, asked about the video on a conference call with journalists, Mr. Peskov said, “It’s not our business.”

Also the Wagner soldier who got hit with a sledgehammer was traded in a prisoner swap which raises some serious questions about Ukraine's claims about not trading back prisoners

Aleksandr, the soldier drafted into the 155th, is still enraged at the way he and his comrades were dropped into Ukraine with few bullets for their aging rifles and forced to live in a cowshed with only a few meal packets to share. His commanders flat-out lied, he said, telling them they were going for additional training — when in fact they were sent to the front lines, where most were killed or grievously wounded.

After months of fighting, Russia announced last month that it had finally captured Pavlivka, but soldiers said it came at tremendous cost.

Aleksandr had been drafted in September along with three close childhood friends, he said. He and another suffered concussions. One lost both legs. The fourth is missing.

But when he is discharged from the hospital, he said, he fully expects to return to Ukraine, and would do so willingly.

“This is how we are raised,” he said. “We grew up in our country understanding that it doesn’t matter how our country treats us. Maybe this is bad. Maybe this is good. Maybe there are things we do not like about our government.”

But, he added, “when a situation like this arises, we get up and go.”

The last quote is this. Could be a bit coerced considering the situation he is in but could be a fairly realistic quote.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1604124392690163724?s=20&t=qDbKcmTQ...

Our dwindling apprehension of a nuclear exchange is only eclipsed by their increasing prurient desire for one.

[2952-0-0]

From the above NYT article . US officials tried to intervene to prevent a frontline assassination.

Well, it is official US policy not to target the actual leaders of other countries. Assassinating Gerasimov with US assistance would have been a step too far. The US has recently shown less scruples recently, and no longer object to Ukraine using NATO-supplied weapons to strike in Russia proper.

Also the Wagner soldier who got hit with a sledgehammer was traded in a prisoner swap which raises some serious questions about Ukraine's claims about not trading back prisoners

The POW's previous interview with the Ukrainian media is a breach of the Geneva Convention by the Ukrainian army. There have been plenty of prisoner swaps between Ukraine and Russia, but the Geneva Convention only prohibits forcing back unwilling POWs. It's likely this Wagner soldier thought he could safely return, only to be killed "pour encourager les autres".

The last quote is this. Could be a bit coerced considering the situation he is in but could be a fairly realistic quote.

I would believe his statement. But, there's a selection bias, since those who aren't willing to keep fighting won't speak to the media anyway.

[NOVA Green]

Another mysterious death of a Russian tycoon... "death by falling" in France.

Wikipedia has already has already updated their "2022 Russian Businessmen Mystery Deaths stub.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1604198889019518976?s=20&t=hspwesEPyYy2...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_businessmen_mystery_deaths

[NOVA Green]

Another random Twitter post, this time about how despite the fact that Russian media overwhelmingly consists of Pro-Kremlin sycophants, that sometimes even moments of truth slip through all of the lies and BS.


https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1604049885405347840?s=20&t=hspwesEP...

[NOVA Green]

Interesting...

If cluster bombs would certainly disapprove considering the long-term impacts of these weapons which should be banned internationally (Although neither Ukraine nor Russia signed onto the ban).

Comments thread is interesting as well.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1604208852169363458?s=20&t=hspwesEPyYy2_ozgbYUONA

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1603817380437557248

Ewww, gross. The putin defending mass rape and other war crimes apologist and mass ethnic cleansing justifier still posts here? Yuck! Gross! I thought he was going to take his promised year off of Atlas rather than sniveling on his belly licking Putin's toes here. Gross!

[NOVA Green]

Totally relevant in context of Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0.

Shifts in Green voters opinion when it comes to providing top shelf German Military hardware are significant within the internal politics of Germany.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1604020697088811008?s=20&t=hspwes...

[Person Man]

Totally relevant in context of Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0.

Shifts in Green voters opinion when it comes to providing top shelf German Military hardware are significant within the internal politics of Germany.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1604020697088811008?s=20&t=hspwes...

FDP support is interesting too.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Interesting...

If cluster bombs would certainly disapprove considering the long-term impacts of these weapons which should be banned internationally (Although neither Ukraine nor Russia signed onto the ban).

Comments thread is interesting as well.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1604208852169363458?s=20&t=hspwesEPyYy2_ozgbYUONA

Agreed. Ukraine will take what it can get, but this reflects poorly on her (alleged) allies. Infantry fighting vehicles can’t get the green light, but cluster munitions are fine.

[Storr]

"To the German Commander:

NUTS!

The American Commander"

- General Anthony McAuliffe, in response to a German request to surrender, 22 December 1944

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1604286515563175936?s=20&t=pTfKLNm...

[HillGoose]

"To the German Commander:

NUTS!

The American Commander"

- General Anthony McAuliffe, in response to a German request to surrender, 22 December 1944

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1604286515563175936?s=20&t=pTfKLNm...

oh man guys the weatherman has turned against the west time for everyone to back down this is getting serious

[NOVA Green]

Putin Mobniks update...

Pretty clear that Russian officials are lying to their own people, not only regarding the "progress" of the "Special Operation", but additionally to the "term of service" to fight and die within the hardened and frozen trenches of Ukraine.

Seriously these arseholes need to withdrawal immediately since their invasion and occupation of Ukraine 2.0 makes the US and Shii'te militia battles around Sadr City look like child play by comparison.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1604244951323262976?s=20&t=hspwesEPyYy2_o...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1604248761504522240?s=20&t=hspwesEPyYy2_o...