2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Iowa Poll!

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1271442599774167042?s=20

I learned since last time, I'll go with Trump+2. 

[Jopow]

I'm gonna say the poll comes out as a tie.

[Ferguson97]

I’m going with Trump+2

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Selzer/DMR poll won't release the presidential result until tomorrow (at least), but in the Senate race they have Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43.  This doesn't bode well for Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Selzer/DMR poll won't release the presidential result until tomorrow (at least), but in the Senate race they have Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43.  This doesn't bode well for Trump.

Greenfield leading Ernst at all has been among the most surprising developments of this year's elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news, Ernst will lose

[Gass3268]

The Selzer/DMR poll won't release the presidential result until tomorrow (at least), but in the Senate race they have Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43.  This doesn't bode well for Trump.

I imagine they want the Trump number to debut with the Sunday paper tomorrow.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is finished since IA is competetive,  he needs to win IA by 9 pts like last time to crack the blue wall, which he wont

[Hope For A New Era]

The Selzer/DMR poll won't release the presidential result until tomorrow (at least), but in the Senate race they have Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43.  This doesn't bode well for Trump.

Greenfield leading Ernst at all has been among the most surprising developments of this year's elections.

Why the surprise? Ernst has never been popular.

[MillennialModerate]

Trump is finished since IA is competetive,  he needs to win IA by 9 pts like last time to crack the blue wall, which he wont

Agreed he need to win Iowa by a decent amount but can we stop saying he’s finished.

That’s been said a million times since July of 2015. Let’s dance when he’s actually finished

[2016]

Trump is finished since IA is competetive,  he needs to win IA by 9 pts like last time to crack the blue wall, which he wont

Agreed he need to win Iowa by a decent amount but can we stop saying he’s finished.

That’s been said a million times since July of 2015. Let’s dance when he’s actually finished

Trump is done. He will lose by the same margin Michael Dukakis lost in 1988.

MAP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would add SC to the mix since SC is turning blue with Harrison

[Tender Branson]

New AR TalkBusiness/Hendrix College poll coming this weekend.

I guess this is the first AR poll for the 2020 election ...

My guess:

54-37-2 Trump/Biden/Others

Actual result:

Trump +2

And I thought my prediction was favourable for Biden ...

[Los Angeles Swag Boss]

^^^^^

Poll shows that Biden is competitive in Arkansas:

47% Donald J. Trump
45% Joseph R. Biden
5% Another candidate
3% Unsure

I don't think that this truly reflects what is going to happen in Arkansas on E-Day, but definitely a canary meet coal mine situation about how Trump is doing right now.

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/06/poll-independents-dissatisfied-with-trump-cotton-biden-competitive-in-arkansas/

[Landslide Lyndon]

Are we sure that Selzer will release their presidential numbers today?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are we sure that Selzer will release their presidential numbers today?

Not for sure.  I'm guessing that if they do, it will be at the same time as yesterday's release (6 pm CDT).

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Are we sure that Selzer will release their presidential numbers today?

DMR says results will come in print Sunday (today).
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/news/iowa-poll/

[2016]

Are we sure that Selzer will release their presidential numbers today?

DMR says results will come in print Sunday (today).
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/news/iowa-poll/

If Greenfield is up 3 on Ernst Biden will be up 5 Points or more on Trump.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Ok it's time where's our IA poll?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ok it's time where's our IA poll?

Looks like all they released tonight was the House district preferences (asked by party, not named candidate).

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

IA-1: D 48, R 42
IA-2: D 53, R 35
IA-3: D 52, R 36
IA-4: R 57, D 35

[ucscgaldamez1]

Maybe not today...just saw the results for the congressional districts

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ok it's time where's our IA poll?

Looks like all they released tonight was the House district preferences (asked by party, not named candidate).

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

IA-1: D 48, R 42
IA-2: D 53, R 35
IA-3: D 52, R 36
IA-4: R 57, D 35

IA-3 more Democratic than IA-1, and that significantly? Maybe I don't know enough about Iowa, but that's somewhat surprising.

[Gass3268]

Ok it's time where's our IA poll?

Looks like all they released tonight was the House district preferences (asked by party, not named candidate).

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

IA-1: D 48, R 42
IA-2: D 53, R 35
IA-3: D 52, R 36
IA-4: R 57, D 35

IA-3 more Democratic than IA-1, and that significantly? Maybe I don't know enough about Iowa, but that's somewhat surprising.

Moving forward, whatever district has Polk County in it will probably be the most Democratic district in the state.

[Holmes]

That averages to 47 D - 42.5 R assuming every district accounts for 25% of the vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

That averages to 47 D - 42.5 R assuming every district accounts for 25% of the vote.

Pretty close.  From the article:

Statewide, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican 47% to 42% — a reversal from March, when an Iowa Poll showed 49% support for Republicans and 42% for Democrats. Nearly all respondents who made a party choice are firm with their decisions, the new poll shows. Only 2% of either side identify as only "leaning" toward one party or the other.