Florida 2022 Megathread

[2016]

Folks, now it gets really, really DICEY for Florida Democrats.

Not only are they behind Republicans in Dade BUT they are only barely ahead in Hillsborough, Pinellas. Crist is potentially going to lose his own County on Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1588314777872658432

Floridas BIG RED TSUNAMI WAVE incoming.

[iceman]

as per NHC and a few weather models that I’ve looked into, there’s a potential weather disturbance that’s going to breeze through south and central Florida on election day, I wonder how would that impact the races.

[OriAr]

It's FL, bar an actual Hurricane it won't matter.

[2016]

as per NHC and a few weather models that I’ve looked into, there’s a potential weather disturbance that’s going to breeze through south and central Florida on election day, I wonder how would that impact the races.

That's bad News for Democrats as Republicans banked in some HUUUUGGGGEEE Early Votes.

Especially the likes of Annette Taddeo need Votes to unsurb Salazar.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's replicating the 303 map anyways Barnes and CCM and Sisolak are only MOE, MOE is different I'm red states than blue states because Oz was up 3/5 pts and he is losing Emerson has CCM down and Barnes but Clarity has Barnes up and Evers is ahead and Phillips Academy has CCM ahead 47/45

It's probably a 52/47/1 Senate anyways but I have faith in Ryan and Beasley and McMULLIN just like Joy Hofmeister is pulling an Upset and Laura Kelly like Peltola did in AK

Dunleavy and Kemp may fall short of 50 and like Peltola Da win a runoff

I wouldn't be surprised if DeSantis and Abbott hit 60 DeWine and Reynolds will

[2016]

@iceman,
Enjoy
https://twitter.com/CaseyDeSantis/status/1588539069243473924
From Rons Wife Casey! Fantastic Vid!

[iceman]

Palm Beach and Broward counties EV raw vote lead by DEMS is increasing slightly by day but it is way below the percentages than in 2018. Also in Osceola, which makes me doubt if DeSantis can also win Osceola but he has a lock probably now in Miami-Dade and well-positioned to win Hillsborough and Pinellas (a big blow to Crist!).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Palm Beach and Broward counties EV raw vote lead by DEMS is increasing slightly by day but it is way below the percentages than in 2018. Also in Osceola, which makes me doubt if DeSantis can also win Osceola but he has a lock probably now in Miami-Dade and well-positioned to win Hillsborough and Pinellas (a big blow to Crist!).

Is Palm Beach the least D County where Dems are still leading in the early vote? It seems like considering what's happenning statewide, Dems are holding up ok there so far, but obv doesn't really matter in the end.

[iceman]

Palm Beach and Broward counties EV raw vote lead by DEMS is increasing slightly by day but it is way below the percentages than in 2018. Also in Osceola, which makes me doubt if DeSantis can also win Osceola but he has a lock probably now in Miami-Dade and well-positioned to win Hillsborough and Pinellas (a big blow to Crist!).

Is Palm Beach the least D County where Dems are still leading in the early vote? It seems like considering what's happenning statewide, Dems are holding up ok there so far, but obv doesn't really matter in the end.

I think it is Pinellas, they are still leading the EV by about 2000 votes. In comparison to 2018, the DEMS lead by about 1K votes going into election day so my gut instinct tells me there’s a chance Crist may win in by a very thin margin. Makes sense as it is his home county.

[2016]

@Progressive Moderate,
I've now run through my own calculations and if both Candidates hold 95 % of their Bases and DeSantis wins NPA's 55-45 he'll end up having a 450,000 to 500,000 lead with the combined VBM/IP Early Vote.

Of Course it would be much easier for me if I could somehow get the Demographic Breakdown of the Early Vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I won't believe it until I see PROJECTIONS THERE ARE Tickets SPLITTERS, I KNOW DeSantis is gonna win but ticket splitting between DeSantis and DEMINGS

Even if DEMINGS loses she should be Veep not Harris she should run against SCOTT ALONG WITH JACKY ROSEN ARE THE MOST ENDANGERED INCUMBENTS

They are ticket splitting with Lake and Kelly, Kemp and Warnock and Ryan and DeWine, Laura Kelly and Moran in KS, Peltola and Dunleavy let's not forget 2018 DeWine/Brown and Ducey/Sinema

But if AK and GA Govs go to a Runoff it's curtains for Rs the reason why Ds are losing Walker is still in the race in AK, Gara will be at Dunleavy without Bill Walker

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Despite the polls I think Beasley or DEMINGS wins and Tim Ryan that gives Ds 54/45/1 with McMullin Ryan isn't down by 10 and DEMINGS and BEASLEY are within 5 pts that's still MOE although being down 5 is different in a blue state than a red state due to more rural voters but we can still overcome that

Ryan isn't down by 10 the same EMERSON said Laxalt and Johnson were up 5 and Phillips Academy has CCM up 2 and MQK and CNN has Barnes down 2 if Evers is up by 2 and Clarity has Barnes up 2 then PA and WI are Lean D, likely 52/47/1 Senate floor, but Ceiling 54/45/1 with DEMINGS or Beasley winning

Watch out for SD, OK because the Gov races are close and Bengs can pull a Heidikamper and Mullin is up by 6 and Seltzer is gonna do a poll on IA Sen race can't wait it was 3 pts last time

DEMINGS is more likely to win now Beasley is 5 pts down like DEMINGS because Demings is a crime fighter Prosecutor

There are ticket splitting I thought it would be Crist/Rubio but it's always been DEMINGS/DeSantis

We will all see Tues

[2016]

The MODERN Republican State Party. I love these guys

https://twitter.com/ChrisMZiegler/status/1588937696881561601

Chairman & Vice Chairman of the FL GOP doing canvassing. Thumps Up!

[EastwoodS]

Despite the polls I think Beasley or DEMINGS wins and Tim Ryan that gives Ds 54/45/1 with McMullin Ryan isn't down by 10 and DEMINGS and BEASLEY are within 5 pts that's still MOE although being down 5 is different in a blue state than a red state due to more rural voters but we can still overcome that

Ryan isn't down by 10 the same EMERSON said Laxalt and Johnson were up 5 and Phillips Academy has CCM up 2 and MQK and CNN has Barnes down 2 if Evers is up by 2 and Clarity has Barnes up 2 then PA and WI are Lean D, likely 52/47/1 Senate floor, but Ceiling 54/45/1 with DEMINGS or Beasley winning

Watch out for SD, OK because the Gov races are close and Bengs can pull a Heidikamper and Mullin is up by 6 and Seltzer is gonna do a poll on IA Sen race can't wait it was 3 pts last time

DEMINGS is more likely to win now Beasley is 5 pts down like DEMINGS because Demings is a crime fighter Prosecutor

There are ticket splitting I thought it would be Crist/Rubio but it's always been DEMINGS/DeSantis

We will all see Tues

Do your last two brain cells ever hurt with the amount of strain you put on them?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Despite the polls I think Beasley or DEMINGS wins and Tim Ryan that gives Ds 54/45/1 with McMullin Ryan isn't down by 10 and DEMINGS and BEASLEY are within 5 pts that's still MOE although being down 5 is different in a blue state than a red state due to more rural voters but we can still overcome that

Ryan isn't down by 10 the same EMERSON said Laxalt and Johnson were up 5 and Phillips Academy has CCM up 2 and MQK and CNN has Barnes down 2 if Evers is up by 2 and Clarity has Barnes up 2 then PA and WI are Lean D, likely 52/47/1 Senate floor, but Ceiling 54/45/1 with DEMINGS or Beasley winning

Watch out for SD, OK because the Gov races are close and Bengs can pull a Heidikamper and Mullin is up by 6 and Seltzer is gonna do a poll on IA Sen race can't wait it was 3 pts last time

DEMINGS is more likely to win now Beasley is 5 pts down like DEMINGS because Demings is a crime fighter Prosecutor

There are ticket splitting I thought it would be Crist/Rubio but it's always been DEMINGS/DeSantis

We will all see Tues

Do your last two brain cells ever hurt with the amount of strain you put on them?

My endorsements are in my signature anyways that's whom I think will win it's a 303 not 413 or 228 228 is what Hillary, Gore and Kerry got 303 is what Obama and Biden got Rs never cracked the blue wall with Obama or BIDEN 2008/2012/2020 and won't crack it in 2022/2024/2026 Collins is DOA IN 2026 and if Newsom is our nominee or if Tim Ryan wins his Sen seats and are our nominee Rs won't crack the 303 blue wall in 2028/2032

[iceman]

Despite the polls I think Beasley or DEMINGS wins and Tim Ryan that gives Ds 54/45/1 with McMullin Ryan isn't down by 10 and DEMINGS and BEASLEY are within 5 pts that's still MOE although being down 5 is different in a blue state than a red state due to more rural voters but we can still overcome that

Ryan isn't down by 10 the same EMERSON said Laxalt and Johnson were up 5 and Phillips Academy has CCM up 2 and MQK and CNN has Barnes down 2 if Evers is up by 2 and Clarity has Barnes up 2 then PA and WI are Lean D, likely 52/47/1 Senate floor, but Ceiling 54/45/1 with DEMINGS or Beasley winning

Watch out for SD, OK because the Gov races are close and Bengs can pull a Heidikamper and Mullin is up by 6 and Seltzer is gonna do a poll on IA Sen race can't wait it was 3 pts last time

DEMINGS is more likely to win now Beasley is 5 pts down like DEMINGS because Demings is a crime fighter Prosecutor

There are ticket splitting I thought it would be Crist/Rubio but it's always been DEMINGS/DeSantis

We will all see Tues

Do your last two brain cells ever hurt with the amount of strain you put on them?

no point really of taking his posts seriously 😆

don’t quote him, or else we can see his posts, he’s been on my ignore list.

[iceman]

GOP EV firewall is now 339,000 with 4.5 M votes counted. Miami-Dade margin is now 7,000 GOP and increasing. Hillsborough margin is slightly up today for DEMS after consecutive days of decreasing. Looks like there’s going to be around 5 Million early votes before going into election day.

I suspect around 4 million voters will head to polls on Tuesday and overwhelmingly R. Which gives total of around 9 Million votes statewide, which is on par or slightly higher than 2018.

[2016]

GOP EV firewall is now 339,000 with 4.5 M votes counted. Miami-Dade margin is now 7,000 GOP and increasing. Hillsborough margin is slightly up today for DEMS after consecutive days of decreasing. Looks like there’s going to be around 5 Million early votes before going into election day.

I suspect around 4 million voters will head to polls on Tuesday and overwhelmingly R. Which gives total of around 9 Million votes statewide, which is on par or slightly higher than 2018.

Do you agree with this Prediction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txtYlxUNAd4
Watch, he predicts 9.5M to vote. He maybe spot on with this?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Didn't see a Florida thread on the Congressional board, so I'll say it here.

Marco Rubio is an Israel First neocon cuckservative who supports selling our military to foreign countries. His "speeches" are all memorized soundbites and Chris Christie was right:

[Fuzzy Bear]

Despite the polls I think Beasley or DEMINGS wins and Tim Ryan that gives Ds 54/45/1 with McMullin Ryan isn't down by 10 and DEMINGS and BEASLEY are within 5 pts that's still MOE although being down 5 is different in a blue state than a red state due to more rural voters but we can still overcome that

Ryan isn't down by 10 the same EMERSON said Laxalt and Johnson were up 5 and Phillips Academy has CCM up 2 and MQK and CNN has Barnes down 2 if Evers is up by 2 and Clarity has Barnes up 2 then PA and WI are Lean D, likely 52/47/1 Senate floor, but Ceiling 54/45/1 with DEMINGS or Beasley winning

Watch out for SD, OK because the Gov races are close and Bengs can pull a Heidikamper and Mullin is up by 6 and Seltzer is gonna do a poll on IA Sen race can't wait it was 3 pts last time

DEMINGS is more likely to win now Beasley is 5 pts down like DEMINGS because Demings is a crime fighter Prosecutor

There are ticket splitting I thought it would be Crist/Rubio but it's always been DEMINGS/DeSantis

We will all see Tues

Do your last two brain cells ever hurt with the amount of strain you put on them?

Dude, you're relatively new here.  That's Olawkandi.  He's a FORUM INSTITUTION and one of a kind. 

[2016]

Didn't see a Florida thread on the Congressional board, so I'll say it here.

Marco Rubio is an Israel First neocon cuckservative who supports selling our military to foreign countries. His "speeches" are all memorized soundbites and Chris Christie was right:

Rubio is still going to win with a mid to high single digit margin. The Map is not there for Demings to win - Period.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Didn't see a Florida thread on the Congressional board, so I'll say it here.

Marco Rubio is an Israel First neocon cuckservative who supports selling our military to foreign countries. His "speeches" are all memorized soundbites and Chris Christie was right:

Rubio is still going to win with a mid to high single digit margin. The Map is not there for Demings to win - Period.

Doesn't change the fact that Little Marco's allegiance is to a rogue state and he is an empty suit. The fact that Florida voters are idiots isn't my fault.

He is also a likely either a pedophile or pedophile enabler and his relationship with Matt Gaetz should be investigated.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How does DeSantis do by CD? His gerrymander is interesting because only 3 of the districts are true Dem packs; Biden won 9, 14, 22, 23, and 25 all by under 20%. Realistically though, I think it'd be tricky for DeSantis to flip any of these even if he's landsliding statewide. The most likely one may be Biden + 17 FL-09 because it's relatively homogenous and tends to favor incumbents, but that's a stretch.

On the flip side, the only Trump districts Christ has a remote shot at are FL-27 and FL-28 if Trump 2020's performance (which was pretty insane) really was a fluke. 27 was only Trump +0.3 so even a tiny bit of reversion would flip it to Christ, plus 27 has the best shifts of all 3 cuban districts for Dems long term due to it taking in a lot of educated areas and downtown downtown Miami. My guess is he loses it though.

So the same 20-8 breakdown.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's been over for Crist and DEMINGS since IAN, that was DeSantis Hurricane Sandy

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How does DeSantis do by CD? His gerrymander is interesting because only 3 of the districts are true Dem packs; Biden won 9, 14, 22, 23, and 25 all by under 20%. Realistically though, I think it'd be tricky for DeSantis to flip any of these even if he's landsliding statewide. The most likely one may be Biden + 17 FL-09 because it's relatively homogenous and tends to favor incumbents, but that's a stretch.

On the flip side, the only Trump districts Christ has a remote shot at are FL-27 and FL-28 if Trump 2020's performance (which was pretty insane) really was a fluke. 27 was only Trump +0.3 so even a tiny bit of reversion would flip it to Christ, plus 27 has the best shifts of all 3 cuban districts for Dems long term due to it taking in a lot of educated areas and downtown downtown Miami. My guess is he loses it though.

So the same 20-8 breakdown.

I don't think I can disagree much with this.