Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are overperforning in Senate compared to the H so much for that Vance plus 10 numbers

[Schiff for Senate]

DeathSantis has won Palm Beach, Hillsborough and Miami-Dade Counties, with 85% of the vote in. This is an absolute and total shellacking for Crist. I'm not going to make the mistake of calling FL a swing state by any stretch of the word anytime soon. It wasn't as if DeathSantis was some Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan who should've had a lot of crossover appeal - he was one of the most controversial GOP governors, constantly received criticism and hate, total partisan GOPer, unabashedly conservative - and he won in a landslide (over a "moderate hero", ex-Republican governor, who really was a lot more like Hogan/Baker when he was governor). So yeah - FL isn't a swing state anymore, that's been ascertained tonight and the last remaining shreds of doubt are gone, even for me.

[Schiff for Senate]

It's not just FL that's gone...it seems that so is Miami-Dade (this is after it went for Clinton by nearly 30 points in 2016, and went against the national trend to swing blue in both 2012 and 2016).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for 2016 A rating for Trafalgar Kelly, Barnes and Fetterman are leading

[Vice President Christian Man]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

[Schiff for Senate]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

[Schiff for Senate]

DeathSantis' 20 point win, btw, is the best performance of any gubernatorial candidate in FL in forty years (last time somebody won a gubernatorial GE in FL by more: 1982, with Democratic governor Bob Graham). Last time a GOPer won a gubernatorial race in FL by so much? NEVER. At least, not post-Reconstruction (during Reconstruction, I don't know, can't be bothered to check, but quite possibly bigger than any GOPer managed even in Reconstruction).


The gubernatorial results this year are really making some history: up in PA, where Josh Shapiro has won, it's the first time since the 1840s (before the GOP was even founded) that Democrats have won three consecutive gubernatorial elections (and they'd have won all three quite comfortably, too: Wolf won his first race, in 2014, comfortably, and his second, in 2018, in a landslide - and now, of course, it's looking very good for Shapiro, and he's already been able to be projected the winner).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

DeSantis views on cultural issues that democrats attacked him on are issues where he has 60% + support on . He unlike Trump boats democrats to go after him on those issues rather than 50/50 ones

[Vice President Christian Man]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

I don't exactly understand, maybe I would better if I lived in FL but from my limited understanding it seems like  Covid-19 policies played a huge role. I expected Crist to do better around Orlando due to Disney but that didn't seem to be an issue. Interestingly I think Orange County is the only county if I'm not mistaken to have voted for Crist in all 3 of his gubernatorial races.  The I-4 corridor used to be the most predictive measure based off of Atlas Blue North and Atlas Red South, but obviously the later is no longer true at least for the time being. It's like South Florida is following the same trends as the Rust Belt, rather than the Northeast which it was once thought to be like.

[Schiff for Senate]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

DeSantis views on cultural issues that democrats attacked him on are issues where he has 60% + support on . He unlike Trump boats democrats to go after him on those issues rather than 50/50 ones

Fair enough. I still don't get how - even with all that being the case - he was able to attract so many Democrats. Because he's been ultraconservative and ultra-artisan and ultra-Republican on not just social issues, but pretty much every issue under the sun. This is a guy who pushed his legislature to pass an aggressive GOP gerrymander for the state's districts, for one thing. I don't get how he can do all those things AND, at the SAME TIME, endear himself to voters from the other party. Maybe some of it had to do with Crist being an uninspiring candidate who didn't motivate the base to turn out much?

[Schiff for Senate]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

I don't exactly understand, maybe I would better if I lived in FL but from my limited understanding it seems like  Covid-19 policies played a huge role. I expected Crist to do better around Orlando due to Disney but that didn't seem to be an issue. Interestingly I think Orange County is the only county if I'm not mistaken to have voted for Crist in all 3 of his gubernatorial races.  The I-4 corridor used to be the most predictive measure based off of Atlas Blue North and Atlas Red South, but obviously the later is no longer true at least for the time being.

Orange County was also one of just two Dole-Gore counties in the entire country, the other being Maryland's Charles County (that was also the first factoid I ever got from Atlas).

[Vice President Christian Man]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

DeSantis views on cultural issues that democrats attacked him on are issues where he has 60% + support on . He unlike Trump boats democrats to go after him on those issues rather than 50/50 ones

Fair enough. I still don't get how - even with all that being the case - he was able to attract so many Democrats. Because he's been ultraconservative and ultra-artisan and ultra-Republican on not just social issues, but pretty much every issue under the sun. This is a guy who pushed his legislature to pass an aggressive GOP gerrymander for the state's districts, for one thing. I don't get how he can do all those things AND, at the SAME TIME, endear himself to voters from the other party. Maybe some of it had to do with Crist being an uninspiring candidate who didn't motivate the base to turn out much?

It's possible. I'm curious on how well he did with the Romney-Clinton voters. I suppose he won them but I'm curious if Crist did relatively better than them compared to Obama-Trump voters which seemed part of his main constituency. I know posters like TFM wouldn't have voted for DeSantis and I'm not certain PQG or Courts would've either, whereas people like OSR and GTG who supported Trump but opposed the far-right of the MAGA movement would've.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

I don't exactly understand, maybe I would better if I lived in FL but from my limited understanding it seems like  Covid-19 policies played a huge role. I expected Crist to do better around Orlando due to Disney but that didn't seem to be an issue. Interestingly I think Orange County is the only county if I'm not mistaken to have voted for Crist in all 3 of his gubernatorial races.  The I-4 corridor used to be the most predictive measure based off of Atlas Blue North and Atlas Red South, but obviously the later is no longer true at least for the time being.

Orange County was also one of just two Dole-Gore counties in the entire country, the other being Maryland's Charles County (that was also the first factoid I ever got from Atlas).

I can understand Charles County because it's a suburban DC county and suburbanites started trending left in the '90s even though it wasn't noticed until Obama, but I'm stumped on why Orange County moved left. I get Orlando is a city but Dole was like a calmer Trump  so it is puzzling. Perhaps Perot could've played a factor but he didn't do well in the South. Also worth noting that Hillary became the first Dem to win Orange County CA after voting for Romney, another contrarian county.

[Sol]

Orange and Charles have the common denominator of rapidly diversifying. That explains the 2000 flip.

[Schiff for Senate]

Orange and Charles have the common denominator of rapidly diversifying. That explains the 2000 flip.

Ah.

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

I don't exactly understand, maybe I would better if I lived in FL but from my limited understanding it seems like  Covid-19 policies played a huge role. I expected Crist to do better around Orlando due to Disney but that didn't seem to be an issue. Interestingly I think Orange County is the only county if I'm not mistaken to have voted for Crist in all 3 of his gubernatorial races.  The I-4 corridor used to be the most predictive measure based off of Atlas Blue North and Atlas Red South, but obviously the later is no longer true at least for the time being.

Orange County was also one of just two Dole-Gore counties in the entire country, the other being Maryland's Charles County (that was also the first factoid I ever got from Atlas).

I can understand Charles County because it's a suburban DC county and suburbanites started trending left in the '90s even though it wasn't noticed until Obama, but I'm stumped on why Orange County moved left. I get Orlando is a city but Dole was like a calmer Trump  so it is puzzling. Perhaps Perot could've played a factor but he didn't do well in the South. Also worth noting that Hillary became the first Dem to win Orange County CA after voting for Romney, another contrarian county.

Orange County, CA, voted straight red from 1940 to 2012. Hillary was the first Democrat in 80 years - since FDR in 1936 - to win it.

[Aurelius]

DeathSantis is so deadly he even killed swing state Florida!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 the Rs have only a 2 seat majority H not enough for a decade majority

[LostInOhio]

If I were DeSantis I’d just go ahead and declare my 2024 candidacy sometime this week. He should beat Trump to it IMO.

[TodayJunior]

All righty I will concede Florida is now a red state. A 20-point margin is just brutal. But better results everywhere else. Nice to see.

[TodayJunior]

If I were DeSantis I’d just go ahead and declare my 2024 candidacy sometime this week. He should beat Trump to it IMO.

Considering he’s really the only one that shines through a pretty mehhhhh result for the republicans, yeah he’ll probably go for it. He may not be able to refuse it. It was a shellacking here and Dems should be very afraid should Biden step down. That said, I still think Biden would have the edge against DeSantis, but not Harris or any other Dem who wouldn’t have the incumbency advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a red state but Rick Scott isn't Latino and DEMINGS and Beto can run for TX and FL again 24 in a higher turnout Prez yr

They aren't Ryan, Ryan can't primary BROWN

[2016]

State Attorney General Ashley Moody actually exceeded Governor DeSantis winning 60 % of the Vote.

Republicans also have won Super Majorities in both Chambers of the Florida State Legislature and I think all of the School Board Members Governor DeSantis endorsed won as well.

DeSantis has now unchecked Power in Florida for the next two years, maybe even more.

If he wants it.

[Real Texan Politics]

Rick Scott could win by close to 10 in 2024 as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Prez Eday not Midterm Higher D Turnout , no he won't win by 10  in a Prez Eday, 150 from 120M and DeSantis almost lost in 2018 with Scott why because he wasn't Latino

Rubio won by 10 in 2016 as Rs won't win Miami Dade with Rick SCOTT, they won it Rubio being Cuban

How did your 237 RH go that Sabato get wrong, it wasn't

[Rookie Yinzer]

I would prefer DeSantis being president over Trump so bring on the 2024 candidacy and let Dems fight for it tooth and nail.

Florida should not be invested in at all in 2024.