PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[wbrocks67]

In case you thought DelRosso was any better than Mastriano:

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1587806934002012169

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

RCP just moved the race to Leans D (lol) so it’s very safe to say things here are settled.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/elections-map.html

[ProgressiveModerate]

RCP just moved the race to Leans D (lol) so it’s very safe to say things here are settled.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/elections-map.html

Lean D PA with tossup NY

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1588193460061982720

[One Term Floridian]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1588193460061982720

Starting to get the feeling Mast and Oz don't get along very well lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1587819437205356544

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1587819437205356544

Was Mastriano created in a DGA lab?

[Senator Incitatus]

I think most people would be shocked how rampant academic fraud is; it only ever gets revealed when the person enters the public eye but should have far harsher consequences.

[jd7171]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

[Not Me, Us]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.

[jd7171]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.

I can see that being the worst-case scenario for him. I don't believe the 13-14 point polls.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.

I can see that being the worst-case scenario for him. I don't believe the 13-14 point polls.

Something doesn't smell right about PA polling right now as I've said in another thread for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, the divide between Senate and Gov seems way too large. An 11% difference in margin seems  way too large, even if Mastriano is terrible, just given Pennsylvania's relative polarization and nationalization in the media.

Secondly, Fetterman outright falling from 51.2% to 46.6% doesn't seem right. Yes, i would expect Oz to consolidate the R base and hence increse his own %, but that sort of drop on Fetterman's part takes some HUGE scandal which there has not been. The stroke def had an impact but would not justify that large of a change.

Also, can we just consider 11% is about what Casey won by in a super D leaning year against a nobody? 2022 is just likely to be less favorable overall so idk if an 11% win would be possible for Shapiro with the electorate that shows up.

[Dani Rose]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.

I can see that being the worst-case scenario for him. I don't believe the 13-14 point polls.

Something doesn't smell right about PA polling right now as I've said in another thread for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, the divide between Senate and Gov seems way too large. An 11% difference in margin seems  way too large, even if Mastriano is terrible, just given Pennsylvania's relative polarization and nationalization in the media.

Secondly, Fetterman outright falling from 51.2% to 46.6% doesn't seem right. Yes, i would expect Oz to consolidate the R base and hence increse his own %, but that sort of drop on Fetterman's part takes some HUGE scandal which there has not been. The stroke def had an impact but would not justify that large of a change.

Also, can we just consider 11% is about what Casey won by in a super D leaning year against a nobody? 2022 is just likely to be less favorable overall so idk if an 11% win would be possible for Shapiro with the electorate that shows up.

Consider that Tom Wolf sent Tom Corbett to the shadow realm by just shy of double digits in a horribly unfriendly year. Yeah, Corbett was unpopular, but he was an incumbent running in what should have been a good year for him. 2022 is almost surely not going to be as Republican as 2014 and Mastriano is way worse than Corbett, so I personally think a low to mid double digit Shapiro victory isn't at all out of the question.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.

I can see that being the worst-case scenario for him. I don't believe the 13-14 point polls.

Something doesn't smell right about PA polling right now as I've said in another thread for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, the divide between Senate and Gov seems way too large. An 11% difference in margin seems  way too large, even if Mastriano is terrible, just given Pennsylvania's relative polarization and nationalization in the media.

Secondly, Fetterman outright falling from 51.2% to 46.6% doesn't seem right. Yes, i would expect Oz to consolidate the R base and hence increse his own %, but that sort of drop on Fetterman's part takes some HUGE scandal which there has not been. The stroke def had an impact but would not justify that large of a change.

Also, can we just consider 11% is about what Casey won by in a super D leaning year against a nobody? 2022 is just likely to be less favorable overall so idk if an 11% win would be possible for Shapiro with the electorate that shows up.

Consider that Tom Wolf sent Tom Corbett to the shadow realm by just shy of double digits in a horribly unfriendly year. Yeah, Corbett was unpopular, but he was an incumbent running in what should have been a good year for him. 2022 is almost surely not going to be as Republican as 2014 and Mastriano is way worse than Corbett, so I personally think a low to mid double digit Shapiro victory isn't at all out of the question.

I hope you're right because it'd be a sign that truly awful politicians can still be held accountable by voters. I think I've just lost faith due to polarization giving a lot of these terrible candidates more footing than they otherwise would have, and in some cases outright victories.

[Adam Griffin]

I think - as someone not in the state - this is the first direct-to-consumer media I've seen from the candidate!

https://twitter.com/dougmastriano/status/1588867091083710465

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

He has some very serious presidential potential.

He's certainly a far more talented and charismatic politician than DeSantis.

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1589030972036874241?s=20&t=12Oz8i_cH...

[Eraserhead]

He has some very serious presidential potential.

He's certainly a far more talented and charismatic politician than DeSantis.

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1589030972036874241?s=20&t=12Oz8i_cH...

Someone has studied Obama.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

He has some very serious presidential potential.

He's certainly a far more talented and charismatic politician than DeSantis.

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1589030972036874241?s=20&t=12Oz8i_cH...

Someone has studied Obama.

And this kind of charisma stands out particularly when its juxtaposed against the likes of...Mastriano.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Shapiro's speech yesterday was incredible. Even moreso in person. I fully expect he'll run for prez one day.

[ctherainbow]

Yeah, he’s 100% been studying Obama.  Even over the course of this year’s campaign, it’s been noticeable every time I’ve seen him speak at an event that his cadence, pitch, and pacing is starting to be almost identical to Barack’s.

And re: Josh running for Pres, it’s the worst-kept secret in PA Dems circles.  We’ve all known since he first ran statewide that he wants the presidency.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t bother to serve 2 terms as Gov and just runs in 2028.  If there is one criticism of Josh that has some teeth to it, it’s that he’s a climber.

[Not Me, Us]

Yeah, he’s 100% been studying Obama.  Even over the course of this year’s campaign, it’s been noticeable every time I’ve seen him speak at an event that his cadence, pitch, and pacing is starting to be almost identical to Barack’s.

And re: Josh running for Pres, it’s the worst-kept secret in PA Dems circles.  We’ve all known since he first ran statewide that he wants the presidency.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t bother to serve 2 terms as Gov and just runs in 2028.  If there is one criticism of Josh that has some teeth to it, it’s that he’s a climber.

There's nothing necessarily wrong with being a climber. He's always spent at least a few years in every position he's held and seems to have done a pretty bang-up job in those roles. Obama was a climber too, more than Shapiro really, but it didn't really hamper his career.

[ctherainbow]

There's nothing necessarily wrong with being a climber. He's always spent at least a few years in every position he's held and seems to have done a pretty bang-up job in those roles. Obama was a climber too, more than Shapiro really, but it didn't really hamper his career.

Definitely nothing wrong with it in terms of policy, and you're 100% correct that he has done a great job in his previous positions.  But optically, it makes him come across as power seeking.   *shrugs*   Hopefully it won't effect him in the future!

[Enduro]

Voting for my libertarian candidate, Matt Hackenberg, but I'll take Shapiro over Mastriano. That guy kinda scares me

[GoTfan]

I know this is *way* into the future, but am I the only one seeing Shapiro as a Presidential candidate down the line?

[MillennialModerate]

Voting for my libertarian candidate, Matt Hackenberg, but I'll take Shapiro over Mastriano. That guy kinda scares me

If he scares you - don’t waste your vote