PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Not Me, Us]

Interestingly, Hilferty ran for Lt Governor in 1994 as a Democrat. Sounds to me like he's DOA in the primary.

[Not Me, Us]

What about Shapiro? I think he's the Democrats' best candidate. Since he just got reelected as attorney general, he has nothing to lose.

It is heavily rumored that he will run, but nothing solid on that front as far as I've seen. If he does run, he will be my candidate, though. Also, I likely will not support a white male for Lt. Governor, so that would disqualify Sims unfortunately. I like him a lot, but we have far too many white men in leadership roles here in PA so I'd like to see someone like Malcolm Kenyatta, Sara Innamorato, Summer Lee, or Sharif Street run.

Kenyatta would for sure be my first choice if he runs, he's awesome. Also love Innamorato and Lee after their primaries in 2018. Have they given any indication of their plans for 2022?

[Not Me, Us]

Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale (dangerous fascist freak) running for Governor, his brother Sean is running for Senate.

from the Inquirer

How exactly does that happen?

County Boards of Commissioners in PA are required to have at least one member of the opposition party. So Republicans are guaranteed at least one seat on County Boards regardless of how blue they are, and vice versa with Democrats. Although this doesn't apply to Allegheny, Erie, Lehigh, and Northampton Counties since they have County Councils instead of Boards of Commissioners.

[Not Me, Us]

I never believed the rumors that Pat Toomey would run. If he does, he loses the nomination.

I mean, he's specifically ruled it out. He could change his mind, but I think his vote to convict is a pretty clear signal that he's done with politics.

[Not Me, Us]

Barletta will almost certainly get Trump's endorsement, which means he gets the nomination. That also means Josh Shapiro will win by 5 points, at least.

[Not Me, Us]

I'm really not sure why Martin thinks he has a chance, but more power to him I guess. In other news, I think Shapiro is gearing up for an announcement. I've gotten two campaign-style emails in the past week plugging his campaign social media and asking for donations, after not having gotten any emails from his campaign for months.

[Not Me, Us]

Would Rep. Ryan Bizzarro, a blue-collar middle class Democrat be a good gubernatorial choice in '22?

https://www.instagram.com/ryanbizzarro/

Certainly not better than Shapiro, who is by far the best candidate for statewide office the Dems have at the moment, not to mention that he has shown no interest in the position and there's no reason to think he'll run.

[Not Me, Us]

By far the strongest candidate Dems have. Endorsed!

[Not Me, Us]

Get your merch:

https://shop.joshshapiro.org/

Not gonna lie, that logo is pretty awful. $25 is a steep price to walk around with that thing on a t-shirt.

[Not Me, Us]

If Shapiro wins and therefore resigns as Attorney General, does anyone know how the vacancy would be filled? Does Shapiro get to appoint his own replacement, or is there a different process in place?

To my knowledge, Shapiro would appoint his own replacement, subject to approval from the State Senate.

[Not Me, Us]

Interesting that Shapiro is endorsing an LG candidate. Seems like a good one, but I wouldn't count Sims out just yet, being from Philly while Davis is from Pittsburgh gives him a strong geographical advantage that could matter in a two-man race like this.

[Not Me, Us]

The R nominee is either gonna be Barletta or Mastriano, Turzai is delusional.

[Not Me, Us]

I saw a sign in my town in Montco that was for Rick Saccone for Gov. I didn't even know he was running lmao.

I think he's going for LG.

[Not Me, Us]

This is really anecdotal but I've seen way more people than expected say they're voting for Brian Sims for Lt. Gov on Twitter/Instagram. I still think Davis wins but Sims could have a surprisingly good showing, especially being from Philly whereas Davis is from Western PA.

I actually voted for Sims. I didn't feel strongly about either of them and picked Sims on a whim.

[Not Me, Us]

Reckon I'll be the rare Mastriano/Fetterman voter, but I'm open to persuasion on both.

I'm very curious to hear your reasoning, from my perspective they couldn't be more different.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/letsgomathias/status/1540084673707220993

I dunno, is it just me or does the dude actually look like a neo nazi?

If the shoe fits...

[Not Me, Us]

This race really is the perfect storm for Democrats. The best possible Democratic candidate versus the worst possible Republican one.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1575182385351602176

King Baelor the Blessed type beat. What a clown.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1575914518458224640

I'm taking the plunge and moving this to Safe D.

I’ve been hesitant to label the race as safe, but at some point you have to call a spade a spade. The race has been over since May, and it’s pretty clear Mastriano is just giving up.

[Not Me, Us]

I haven't been following this race, can somebody give me a quick rundown on everything Mastriano has screwed up?

It'd be quicker to tell you what he didn't screw up.

1. He has made absolutely no attempt to expand his base of support beyond his existing group of Republican hardliners. He refuses to speak to mainstream media outlets and all his "campaign" has amounted to so far is going on friendly outlets and begging for money.

2. He has no money. His fundraising is abysmal. Oz has that problem (though to a much lesser degree), but he's been able to make it up with support from the national party and outside spending groups. Mastriano, on the other hand, has been completely cut off. The RNC and RGA basically triaged him.

3. He has no campaign. Afaik, he isn't running any TV ads, he's doing almost no rallies, and has dedicated the last part of the campaign cycle to "fasting and prayer", which is probably wise, since only divine intervention can save him now. He really doesn't seem like he wants to win.

There's maybe a 5% chance that the national environment carries him over the finish line, but Josh Shapiro is far and away the most likely next Governor of Pennsylvania.

[Not Me, Us]

Apparently the PA Chief Justice passed away last night.  RIP.

He was a Dem (generally considered the most moderate of the 5) and he would have reached the mandatory retirement age in December of this year had he lived.  Does anyone know how the replacement process works and whether that changes now that he sadly left a couple months earlier than planned?

The remaining 4 Dems are slated to be on the court through at least 2025, so the majority that would hear any 2022/24 election related disputes is not at stake with this appointment/election.

Governor appoints, subject to State Senate confirmation, so I imagine it stays open or (less likely) Wolf nominates a non-crazy Republican who will pass muster with the Senate, but I doubt he will want to give any Republican incumbency with the seat up for election next year anyway.

Wolf won't get a chance to fill it, the State Senate only has like a week left in session before January. The next Governor will fill the vacancy.

[Not Me, Us]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

[Not Me, Us]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

As far as I know, only two Democrats have ever won Lancaster County - Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bob Casey Sr. in 1990. Lancaster is not as heavily Republican as it used to be, but it is still a reliably Republican stronghold. Mastriano will definitely carry it. But it is a county that could flip Democratic down the road.

James Buchanan actually carried it as well due to being a favorite son, but that’s the only other example I’m aware of. It’s one of the most consistently Republican counties in the country.

[Not Me, Us]

Has Mastriano even tried to campaign in the last week or so?

He hasn't tried to campaign for months.

[Not Me, Us]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.