PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if Club for Growth doesn’t endorse Shapiro

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does Mastriano even break 45%?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Mastriano even break 45%?

I would take the under on that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1575182385351602176

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch, but I could not be more excited for Governor Shapiro. As great as Wolf has been, Shapiro will be better.

Shapiro has strong Presidential vibes. Can't wait to see what happens!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1575182385351602176

This race is just comical at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1575142769043116033

[Senator Incitatus]

[tweet]

Probably one of his sounder moves this year.

[riceowl]

I mean....

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1575215417320427520

They also endorsed Oz.

[LabourJersey]

Mastriano is just not running a campaign at this rate, isn't he?

He doesn't talk to the media and doesn't talk to any organizations--not even groups that should be slam-dunk GOP supporters like state troopers! it's amazing honestly.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1575182385351602176

King Baelor the Blessed type beat. What a clown.

[Schiff for Senate]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

Obviously. And literally nobody is saying that they will. What you're saying is all quite true, but frankly, it's just as obvious, and I think we all know that anyway. I mean, when we're talking about Shapiro campaigning in a county like (just pulling this one out of the hat) Huntingdon, he's obviously not trying to *win* it. He doesn't have a prayer of winning a Trump+51 county, no matter what happens. However, what he's hoping to do is to reduce the margin of loss from 51 points to, say, 45 points or so, instead. And we all know that.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay. That's it. This is SAFE-D.

Mastriano literally announced he's not doing anything differently for the next 40 days, and his current trajectory is not positive.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Maybe some of you are like me and are worried about waking up on November 9th to a Mastriano win. It'll be like Trump 2.0. We won't have seen it coming.

The difference is that Trump actually ran a campaign focused around issues that drove people out, he had a ton of money, and his opponent was extremely unpopular with the electorate. Mastriano has none of that going for him. He definitely has the same relationship with his supporters--cultish and racist. That's why his signs are everywhere. The cult needs you to know they're in a cult. But the difference is that there likely is no silent Mastriano voter the way there was a silent Trump voter. It's extremely reassuring in that regard.

I'm more inclined to believe that there's a silent Oz voter--maybe someone who isn't full-blown MAGA but still buys that Fetterman is too far left. Oz has at least hit Fetterman on some of those red meat Republican issues like crime and "socialism". Oz is much likelier to win than Mastriano is at this point.

For obvious reasons, I don't feel comfortable calling this a safe D race yet (or probably ever) but I think the signs are looking good. PA Dems didn't get lucky here so much as the PA GOP went out of their way to field a bunch of lackluster candidates, back the most insane one, and are now getting their comeuppance.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I will also stop short of saying safe D, but even accounting for Mastriano getting all the GOP base support to turn out for him as possible and GOP favoring polling errors, Shapiro still seems ahead by too much and with too many factors that make him favored to win. No Republican should be losing the Fraternal Order of Police endorsement. I am more convinced that it could even be a relative blowout in the low teens at this point too. Mastriano seems to have basically given up unlike Oz and Trump in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

I will also stop short of saying safe D, but even accounting for Mastriano getting all the GOP base support to turn out for him as possible and GOP favoring polling errors, Shapiro still seems ahead by too much and with too many factors that make him favored to win. No Republican should be losing the Fraternal Order of Police endorsement. I am more convinced that it could even be a relative blowout in the low teens at this point too. Mastriano seems to have basically given up unlike Oz and Trump in 2020.

Well Oz can't really give up. He doesn't have a choice.

[Yoda]

I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch, but I could not be more excited for Governor Shapiro. As great as Wolf has been, Shapiro will be better.

Shapiro has strong Presidential vibes. Can't wait to see what happens!

I was just thinking that today actually. I like Whitmer a lot too though. Whitmer/Shapiro '28?

[Spectator]

This race is exhibit A for how to lose a race you should otherwise be heavily favored to win and  should go down in polisci textbooks as an example.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Oz will win the Senate race though.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. The only PAC that was airing anti-Shapiro ads all summer/into the fall has now bowed out.

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1575908358925828111

[President Johnson]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

[BenjiG98]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

Senate has 25 Biden seats to 25 Trump seats (and Shapiro only won 24 in his 2016 election). It's not impossible for Dems to pick off a few Trump seats, but I don't know if it's particularly likely.

I would check out cnalysis' Chamber Summary: https://cnalysis.com/articles/chamber-summary-pennsylvania-senate/

[Spectator]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

Senate has 25 Biden seats to 25 Trump seats (and Shapiro only won 24 in his 2016 election). It's not impossible for Dems to pick off a few Trump seats, but I don't know if it's particularly likely.

I would check out cnalysis' Chamber Summary: https://cnalysis.com/articles/chamber-summary-pennsylvania-senate/

Really? Shapiro lost a district Biden won despite doing a bit better statewide? Kind of like MI-10 being a weird Trump-Peters district.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So with the extreme divergence in both major statewide Pennsylvania races, with this one looking increasingly like a lock for Shapiro and Oz making a comeback in the Senate race, what can Shapiro do to help Fetterman? He might as well focus his efforts there as well as in trying to get a Democratic legislature now that Mastriano is close to dead in the water. I get not wanting to be complacent but this is getting into "stop! He's already dead!" territory and the resources that may go into beating him further into the ground could be utilized better elsewhere.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So with the extreme divergence in both major statewide Pennsylvania races, with this one looking increasingly like a lock for Shapiro and Oz making a comeback in the Senate race, what can Shapiro do to help Fetterman? He might as well focus his efforts there as well as in trying to get a Democratic legislature now that Mastriano is close to dead in the water. I get not wanting to be complacent but this is getting into "stop! He's already dead!" territory and the resources that may go into beating him further into the ground could be utilized better elsewhere.

The State Senate is quite a tough carry just because of the seats that are up. A strong performance could set them up well in 2024 though.

[Roll Roons]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

For the state house, CNalysis has Republicans favored in 103 seats and Democrats favored in 98, with two tossups (one in Pittsburgh's North Hills and one in DelCo) - the former is open and the latter is held by an incumbent Republican. There is also one Tilt R seat near Scranton and one Lean R seat in MontCo, along with seven rated as Tilt or Lean D. So the path to a Democratic majority is not impossible, but it's not easy by any means.

I think the state house became considerably more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. For instance, there are now three safe D seats around Harrisburg and two around Lancaster, while the previous maps only had one each.